2011 AWTBEER Mock Draft

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by Ole Miss Texan

Your first paragraph needs to be copied and then pasted all across this message board... in every thread. I love it. Add in that Wade is a really brilliant defensive-minded coach and I'm really really looking forward to our draft.

Unfortunately I can never Rep you. Maybe you should slow down on the good posts

appreciate the love, yeah we seem to have tracked well together some time now, usually your right too! So this is quite high praise in my book

with that said if the Texans don't get this draft right the thrill is gone.

[steelbtexan]

Originally Posted by Ole Miss Texan

Your first paragraph needs to be copied and then pasted all across this message board... in every thread. I love it. Add in that Wade is a really brilliant defensive-minded coach and I'm really really looking forward to our draft.

Unfortunately I can never Rep you. Maybe you should slow down on the good posts

Got him for you

Great job AWT/BL

[Lucky]

Originally Posted by beerlover

Cannot reach again for need & bypass another defensive positional player who is higher rated...

Jordan is not "higher rated" than Amukamara or Aldon Smith, except by you guys. You look across the vast majority of internet draft rankings, and you'll see Amukuamara rated slightly higher, and Aldon Smith about the same as Jordan.

House and Carter are OK prospects, but probably a round high for each. How many WAC CBs can one team carry? I think there will be better CBs available at #42. And Carter is undersized at 6'1". I don't see him fitting the Wade Phillips mold as a 3-4 OLB.

If deemed healthy by the start of camp (if there is one), Williams would be good value. Though you would think the Texans are looking for someone more physical to pair with Glover Quin at FS. I also like the Burton pick, as he projects as a WCO WR with special teams potential.

The rest of the picks are OK, without a lot of wow. But, it's the 6th and 7th rounds. You aren't projecting trades, but I will be surprised if there aren't 2 or 3 other QBs taken in the 1st, by teams that trade back into or down in the 1st round. Locker, Kaepernick, Mallett, and/or Ponder could all be hot commodities once Gabbert & Newton are off the board.

Glad to see you back, awtysst.

[steelbtexan]

^^^^

Jordan is one of the safest picks in this draft. I do have Smith rated higher. He has a much higher ceiling.

You underrate House. He's got more natural ability than Quin or McCain combined. IMHO


Carter played for Wade at the East/West game. If Wade takes him I wont have a problem with the pick. There's a reason Carter is available in the 3rd rd. If height is Carters only knock then he'going to be a player.

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by Lucky

Jordan is not "higher rated" than Amukamara or Aldon Smith, except by you guys. You look across the vast majority of internet draft rankings, and you'll see Amukuamara rated slightly higher, and Aldon Smith about the same as Jordan.

now you are just being totally laughable. another thing, at least I don't look across the vast majority of internet draft rankings to assess my draft board, not speaking for Awtysst, but 50% of my evaluations are done during the season, I say 50% because I have to research & find game film of many draft prospects, simply not enough time/access to watch every game on Thursday nights or Saturdays. I then use a handful of actual scouts advise, along with just a few draft prognosticators like John Harris, Lance Zierlein, Corey Chavous to list a couple. Also subscribe to one of the premier draft agencies ourlads scouting services (which I'm still waiting for their draft guide, any day) as well l watch NFL Network Path to the Draft on occasion, there are a few guests & former players who have something interesting to say once in a while. Then a lot of it is just plain old experience from watching the game for years, seeing these young players grow up & come into the league with high expectations, after a while you know what to look for without anybody telling you what you need to see, the eyes don't lie, well sometimes....which is the beauty of having a pair of eyes for confirmation, hence doing a collective/partner mock draft.

[Ole Miss Texan]

Originally Posted by Lucky

Jordan is not "higher rated" than Amukamara or Aldon Smith, except by you guys. You look across the vast majority of internet draft rankings, and you'll see Amukuamara rated slightly higher, and Aldon Smith about the same as Jordan.

See this is the type of reasoning where I wholly disagree with many people regarding the draft. It doesn't matter where "internet draft rankings" have any prospects ranked. It's nice to look at but those aren't accurate in my eyes.

I don't doubt some teams will have Amukamara rated higher, while others may have Jordan, or Smith. Some may have Watt rated as a Top 10 while others have him in the 20's. Each team is unique and that's what you have to concentrate on. Overall prospect rankings don't take every team into account. It depends on the player, style of play, scheme, etc. Some teams may have Julio Jones rated higher than AJ Green.

If we went by the internet gurus across America, Reggie Bush or Vince Young would be on our team.

[awtysst]

Originally Posted by Lucky

Jordan is not "higher rated" than Amukamara or Aldon Smith, except by you guys. You look across the vast majority of internet draft rankings, and you'll see Amukuamara rated slightly higher, and Aldon Smith about the same as Jordan.

Different people use different rating systems. Some people use actual play, others use play + projection, others use strict projection. Prince is a great prospect, no doubt about it, but in my opinion Jordan is a bit ahead of him. Jordan is a well rounded 3-4 DE who can rush, knock down balls, plays the run hard, and even can drop into coverage. Is he perfect, no. But he reminds me of a young Shaun Ellis. Shaun Ellis is the type of DE we could use. Is Smith a 3-4 DE starter? Maybe. Is Marrio? I don't know. I do know that this guy can play 3-4 DE since he did it at a very high level for 3 years already.

I would say 75-85% of my prognostication is based on actual play.
I think of the Combine and Prodays as a way to measure maturity. It is a mistake to elevate someone based on projecting off combine numbers. If you do, you end up with a Vernon Ghoslten most of the time.

A lot of teams screw up in drafting becuase they don't go for the football player, they go for the weight room/combine/pro day guy. A guy who played well 3 years plus in college is more likely to have a solid to good NFL career than a 1 year wonder with awesome projectibles will have of a great NFL career. While the one year wonder may have a better ceiling, they tend to be high risk high reward. The great teams don't take high risk high reward players, they draft good football players. That is my philosophy. Draft the best football player available to you. And to me, Jordan is that guy.

I would also remind you of a situation in 2007. We pretty much said we needed a DT and reached on Okoye. Some of us here wanted Patrick Willis, but others told us that we had Demeco already, so we didn't need Patrick. Others wanted Revis, but we were told we already had Dunta, so we didn't need Revis. What we needed was a disruptive DT to compliment Mario. Well, we reached and blew it. Always take the BPA and then figure out how to get the best players on the field. If your problem is having to sit good players for better players, you have a great problem.

Someday, hopefully the Texans will have that problem.

[kiwitexansfan]

Originally Posted by steelbtexan

You underrate House. He's got more natural ability than Quin or McCain combined. IMHO

This House has more talent than McCain....



Yes, if you were wondering I drink deeply of McCain Haterade.

[Lucky]

Originally Posted by awtysst

Is Smith a 3-4 DE starter? Maybe. Is Marrio? I don't know. I do know that this guy can play 3-4 DE since he did it at a very high level for 3 years already.

Mario and Antonio are proven NFL players. But you're not sure they can play the 3-4? But, you're sure that Jordan can? Because he did it in the Pac-10?

If there is a position on the d-line with ?'s, it's NT. I guess the perfect draft world for me would for the Texans to move down in the 1st, pickup an extra 2nd, and come away with a NT, OLB, & CB. But Williams & Smith are two of your 4 best players on defense. It's ludicrous to spend a 1st round pick to back them up. Even Smithiak knows this.

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by Lucky

Mario and Antonio are proven NFL players. But you're not sure they can play the 3-4? But, you're sure that Jordan can? Because he did it in the Pac-10?

If there is a position on the d-line with ?'s, it's NT. I guess the perfect draft world for me would for the Texans to move down in the 1st, pickup an extra 2nd, and come away with a NT, OLB, & CB. But Williams & Smith are two of your 4 best players on defense. It's ludicrous to spend a 1st round pick to back them up. Even Smithiak knows this.

Well Rick Smith has proven over & over again he will reach to address need, bypassing BPA so yeah, I guess, he got us on that one Awtysst. But this isn't WHAT THE TEXANS WILL DO, ITS MEARLY WHAT WE FEEL THEY SHOULD DO!

[awtysst]

Originally Posted by Lucky

Mario and Antonio are proven NFL players. But you're not sure they can play the 3-4? But, you're sure that Jordan can? Because he did it in the Pac-10?

If there is a position on the d-line with ?'s, it's NT. I guess the perfect draft world for me would for the Texans to move down in the 1st, pickup an extra 2nd, and come away with a NT, OLB, & CB. But Williams & Smith are two of your 4 best players on defense. It's ludicrous to spend a 1st round pick to back them up. Even Smithiak knows this.

Mario and Smith are proven 4-3 DEs. They were two of the best 4 players on D when we played a 4-3. Smith has played some 3-4 DE before and did ok there. Outside of a very good playoff run he was not a superstar DE. You are assuming this will be an easy transition for the two of them. When you ask a player to player different position/role on the team you have no idea how they will adjust. They may make the transition seamlessly or be completely lost. I mean look at Haynesworth. He was a dominant 4-3 DT who DC tried to convert into a NT. He couldnt/wouldn't make that change.
When you move a player to a new position, you don't know how they will do.

Originally Posted by beerlover

Well Rick Smith has proven over & over again he will reach to address need, bypassing BPA so yeah, I guess, he got us on that one Awtysst. But this isn't WHAT THE TEXANS WILL DO, ITS MEARLY WHAT WE FEEL THEY SHOULD DO!

Agreed. Smith like most NFL GMs will reach for need rather than go BPA. However, good teams more often than not use their premium picks on BPA. At the end of the day, we made a mock based on how we would draft. And I have a feeling our picks will be better than what the Texans themselves come up with!

[beerlover]

Can't we get along? One of my favorite Beers is brewed by Stone in San Diego (brewers of the legednary Arrogant Bastard) but there is another one I prefer it's a blend of three of their best, 1/3 Arrogant Bastard/1/3 Oak Aged Bastard/1/3 Double Bastard, called - Lucky Bastard, yeah that's right!

[steelbtexan]

Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan

This House has more talent than McCain....



Yes, if you were wondering I drink deeply of McCain Haterade.

Cant rep you

But can I have a gulp of that haterade.

LOL

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by steelbtexan

Cant rep you

But can I have a gulp of that haterade.

LOL

would enjoy that, unfortuantley Lucky Bastard is a fleeting, rare limited edition elixer, it comes into this market sparingly, what I had now is gone. However I could subject you to some home brew? have just kegged some IPA which should be ready by draft to enjoy. always do Oak Aged Versions too (just had wood chips soaked in expensive single malt scotch).

[SAMURAITEXAN]

The whole mock draft thing is very informative and interesting how other people evaluate the players. Especially, I ain't draft expert and not familiar enough about college players to make my own mock. A little knowledge that I have on college players, I kinda look into their profile and highlights on youtube to see how they play and decide which of the players may fit our scheme and needs. But just doing this is very time consuming and no way I can evaluate and gather enough info to make my own mock so, my respect to you and other mock draft experts.

I would like for us to draft OLB and CB in early rounds. In your opinion, who would be the candidates for the 1-3 rds prospects? And SS prospects in the mid to later rds?

I would appreciate your help as there's too many prospects to look into and this would help great deal in focusing positions that I am interested in.

Go Texans!!!

[kiwitexansfan]

Samurai, I would highly recommend participation in the group mock that happens every year here on TT.

I start those with very limited knowledge of the draft outside of Nebraska and teams that have played Nebraska but by the end of them I have knowledge of and opinions on players going into the 6th and 7th rounds.

It is heaps of fun too.

[SAMURAITEXAN]

Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan

Samurai, I would highly recommend participation in the group mock that happens every year here on TT.

I start those with very limited knowledge of the draft outside of Nebraska and teams that have played Nebraska but by the end of them I have knowledge of and opinions on players going into the 6th and 7th rounds.

It is heaps of fun too.

Thank you for your comment Kiwi. I would if have enough time but, I am old (about 2/3rd of my body already in a coffin) and don't have enough gas left in my tank to do mock. (Heck, I don't have enough gas left to go after young ladies! I won't because I am happily married but you know what I mean) Besides, I enjoy reading mock draft on Texanstalk.com because people here are very knowledgeable on our needs.

Go Texans!!!

[drs23]

Originally Posted by awtysst

Different people use different rating systems. Some people use actual play, others use play + projection, others use strict projection. Prince is a great prospect, no doubt about it, but in my opinion Jordan is a bit ahead of him. Jordan is a well rounded 3-4 DE who can rush, knock down balls, plays the run hard, and even can drop into coverage. Is he perfect, no. But he reminds me of a young Shaun Ellis. Shaun Ellis is the type of DE we could use. Is Smith a 3-4 DE starter? Maybe. Is Marrio? I don't know. I do know that this guy can play 3-4 DE since he did it at a very high level for 3 years already.

I would say 75-85% of my prognostication is based on actual play.
I think of the Combine and Prodays as a way to measure maturity. It is a mistake to elevate someone based on projecting off combine numbers. If you do, you end up with a Vernon Ghoslten most of the time.

A lot of teams screw up in drafting becuase they don't go for the football player, they go for the weight room/combine/pro day guy. A guy who played well 3 years plus in college is more likely to have a solid to good NFL career than a 1 year wonder with awesome projectibles will have of a great NFL career. While the one year wonder may have a better ceiling, they tend to be high risk high reward. The great teams don't take high risk high reward players, they draft good football players. That is my philosophy. Draft the best football player available to you. And to me, Jordan is that guy.

I would also remind you of a situation in 2007. We pretty much said we needed a DT and reached on Okoye. Some of us here wanted Patrick Willis, but others told us that we had Demeco already, so we didn't need Patrick. Others wanted Revis, but we were told we already had Dunta, so we didn't need Revis. What we needed was a disruptive DT to compliment Mario. Well, we reached and blew it. Always take the BPA and then figure out how to get the best players on the field. If your problem is having to sit good players for better players, you have a great problem.

Someday, hopefully the Texans will have that problem.

Thank you. Well said.