Measuring fourth-down aggressiveness

[EllisUnit]

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth


Ask me who the most aggressive coach in the AFC South is on fourth down, and I’d unhesitatingly say Jack Del Rio.

He goes for it, quite frankly, a bit too often.

But according to Football Outsiders, he was actually the fourth-most aggressive coach in the division on fourth down.

The computation for FO's Aggressiveness Index (AI) is a little more complicated than just giving the overall rate of going for it on fourth downs:

"Instead, the head coach's record in different 'going for it' situations is compared to the league average, with the numbers weighted by the number of opportunities the coach had in each situation."


And under that formula, the division’s coaches rated like this in AI:

* Eighth – Gary Kubiak
* 12th – Jeff Fisher
* 14th -- Jim Caldwell
* 20th – Del Rio


Even so, I think Del Rio should give into his gut feeling a bit less. Caldwell, given his offense's strength and defensive weakness, could be more aggressive. (Nate Dunlevy certainly thinks so.)

I found this interesting. i would find myself getting so mad last season cause Kubiak would punt, our kick a FG when i knew we could get the 2 inches we needed. i don't see how he's 8th on the list.

[El Tejano]

Originally Posted by EllisUnit

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth


Ask me who the most aggressive coach in the AFC South is on fourth down, and I’d unhesitatingly say Jack Del Rio.

He goes for it, quite frankly, a bit too often.

But according to Football Outsiders, he was actually the fourth-most aggressive coach in the division on fourth down.

The computation for FO's Aggressiveness Index (AI) is a little more complicated than just giving the overall rate of going for it on fourth downs:

"Instead, the head coach's record in different 'going for it' situations is compared to the league average, with the numbers weighted by the number of opportunities the coach had in each situation."


And under that formula, the division’s coaches rated like this in AI:

* Eighth – Gary Kubiak
* 12th – Jeff Fisher
* 14th -- Jim Caldwell
* 20th – Del Rio


Even so, I think Del Rio should give into his gut feeling a bit less. Caldwell, given his offense's strength and defensive weakness, could be more aggressive. (Nate Dunlevy certainly thinks so.)

I found this interesting. i would find myself getting so mad last season cause Kubiak would punt, our kick a FG when i knew we could get the 2 inches we needed. i don't see how he's 8th on the list.

He went for it alot on 4th down this season. The first Indy game, alone, comes to mind.

[EllisUnit]

Originally Posted by El Tejano

He went for it alot on 4th down this season. The first Indy game, alone, comes to mind.

yeah i can think of a few games, but not enough that he'd be ranked that high

[ArlingtonTexan]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/sta...s-index-update


For those who want to breakdown the formula

[Double Barrel]

I wonder how many of those 4th downs were in late game situations that the team was in do-or-die mode?

[Wolf]

we know one for sure

[EllisUnit]

Originally Posted by Double Barrel

I wonder how many of those 4th downs were in late game situations that the team was in do-or-die mode?

yeah i never thought of that. we'd fall behind big so early we had no choice but to go for it.

[infantrycak]

Perception doesn't always meet reality. Plus there is a natural inclination to be harder on your own team than others. Just a few days ago I saw someone assert as many others had that Kubiak was an id!ot who couldn't remember Foster was on the roster in the 2nd half. Look it up and turns out Foster had more touches in the second half and was far more productive with those touches.

[SAMURAITEXAN]

Originally Posted by Wolf

we know one for sure

I just love this picture. Every time I see it, brings me more smile.

Go Texans!!!

[El Tejano]

Originally Posted by Wolf

we know one for sure

I love this picture but it was at THIS moment that I thought we had a special season on our hands. Then came November!

[The Pencil Neck]

Kubiak goes for 4th downs early in games, too. And he's told Schaub to quick snap QB sneak in certain situations and it's frequently not turned out well. I recall the Steeler game to open the season a couple of years ago when we went for a 4th down on the first drive. There have been other opening drives when we've done that.

So it's not just when we're down that we go for it on 4th down.

I think that a lot of Texans' fans have a warped view of Kubiak because they're so frustrated with losing so many games for so long.

[Double Barrel]

My question wasn't from a warped perspective, but rather a curiosity about percentages of these calls while in do-or-die situations. I'd like to see breakdown stats for all the teams mentioned.

I try to remain pragmatic about Kubiak, though. Great OC, mediocre at best HC.

[Texans_Chick]

Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck

Kubiak goes for 4th downs early in games, too. And he's told Schaub to quick snap QB sneak in certain situations and it's frequently not turned out well. I recall the Steeler game to open the season a couple of years ago when we went for a 4th down on the first drive. There have been other opening drives when we've done that.

So it's not just when we're down that we go for it on 4th down.

I think that a lot of Texans' fans have a warped view of Kubiak because they're so frustrated with losing so many games for so long.

I think the 4th down stat in that article is artificially low because the Texans so often have been playing from way behind.

Kubiak has had to coach a team that has no reliable defense and at time no reliable field goal kicker. If you are coaching such a team, you have to go for it on 4th down because if you give the ball up it is just about a certain TD for the other team. Sometimes that results in short fields but with their offense, sometimes they've just had to do it.

[Corrosion]

Originally Posted by Texans_Chick

I think the 4th down stat in that article is artificially low because the Texans so often have been playing from way behind.

Kubiak has had to coach a team that has no reliable defense and at time no reliable field goal kicker. If you are coaching such a team, you have to go for it on 4th down because if you give the ball up it is just about a certain TD for the other team. Sometimes that results in short fields but with their offense, sometimes they've just had to do it.

No reliable kicker ? Rackers hit 90% of his attempts last season. Only 7 kickers including Rackers hit 90% of better of their attempts.

Three of those had fewer than 20 attempts.

Four others didnt have an attempt over 50 yards.

There were times last season that Kubiak "protected" Rackers by not attempting long kicks but I believe the majority of those were sound decisions based upon game situations rather than confidence or lack there-of in Rackers - Had those attempts resulted in a miss the opponent gets great field position and nothing outside of 40 is a gimmie.



We all know the defense sucked ... no need to expand upon that.

[Double Barrel]

Is Kubiak - THE HEAD COACH - not at all culpable for the horrible state of the defense on HIS team? He's had the reigns for 5 seasons, picked two defensive coordinators, and the defense just regressed into bottom dwelling garbage.

I honestly don't understand the lack of accountability toward the HEAD COACH who created the current team. I'd like to ask Bob McNair the direct question of how responsible the HEAD COACH should be for the ENTIRE team, because this horrible defense would have gotten many HEAD COACHES fired.

I think we have an offensive coordinator who makes head coaching decisions at the moment, official title aside.

[Corrosion]

Originally Posted by Double Barrel

Is Kubiak - THE HEAD COACH - not at all culpable for the horrible state of the defense on HIS team? He's had the reigns for 5 seasons, picked two defensive coordinators, and the defense just regressed into bottom dwelling garbage.

I honestly don't understand the lack of accountability toward the HEAD COACH who created the current team. I'd like to ask Bob McNair the direct question of how responsible the HEAD COACH should be for the ENTIRE team, because this horrible defense would have gotten many HEAD COACHES fired.

I think we have an offensive coordinator who makes head coaching decisions at the moment, official title aside.

Looking at the season as a whole - Sure Kubiak should be history.

Go back and look at it in its episodes and the picture has to change a bit.


No Cushing for the first month.

Barwin getting injured - up until that point they had absolutely dominated the Dolts. After he left the pass rush was never the same the rest of the season.

Ryans gone for the season - They were 4-2 after the Chiefs game ..... Its obvious Ryans was a BIG part of the success of that front seven. A highschool team could have scored against them from then till the end of the season.

Duane Brown's suspension ....

The regression of both Cushing and Diles. Not only did no one step up to fill the void left by Ryans , they ran from the opportunity like schoolgirls from a fire in the lunchroom.


The Jacksonville game , a game they should have won and one in which Quin made a good play that had an unfortunate result.

Jackson never really "Getting it" He spent more time falling down or chasing down recievers than he did covering them. Everyone expected rough patches for him but no one expected him to struggle like he did from begining to end.

Pollard and Wilson regressed too .... they had no better options either.


Mario Williams getting hurt (playing hurt for who knows how long) again. They never once during the season had a single snap where they had the defensive lineup they intended when the season began.


Kubiak didnt have control of a lot of the things that happened , others he did and didnt make the right decision , some were just tough breaks or mistakes by players. Im still pissed off at Wilson about the Jets game .....


The coach has some input into personel decisions - especially in the draft process but ultimately he has to coach the guy's the GM gives him. I think a lot of the blame has to go to Smith for failing to upgrade the secondary. Rather they start the season with a bunch of kids in the secondary ....


Sure Kubiak said he was confident with the kiddie corps secondary but what other option did he have ? Throw his GM under the bus ? Say his players werent good enough to win with ? Just what every player wants to hear from his coach to start things off on the right foot .....


Had they had a ..... "less ****ty" defense they probably make the playoffs.

A few plays here and there change the course of the entire season.

JJ catches that TD in the Ravens game , there is no OT.

Mike Thomas isnt standing right where Quin bats the ball , that game likely has a different outcome.

Eugene Wilson takes a better angle or just doesnt allow Braylon Edwards behind him and they win the Jets game ..... How the hell do you lose that game , 95 yards and under a minute to go.


Sure we can argue that they put themselves in poor position too ....


What it all boils down to is Kubiak has what Smith gives him , no more no less. What Smith gave him to work with last season was one reliable DB and a buch of garbage. Its damn hard to win like that.