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Old 03-16-2011   #21
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
If anything, we should trade back with our first, and then see if we can bundle some of our later round picks to trade up and get another 2nd or 3rd to help shore up the defense. If we had a 4 picks in the first 3 rounds, we'd be in position to really make some nice improvements I think. A rush linebacker, a NT, a safety or two, maybe a DE or a SAM LB, and I think we're just about set.
I believe that trading back is harder to do than trading up. Finding a team that's willing to pay a premium for only one player is very difficult unless the team trading down is willing to take less than fair value & most won't do it.

As for your last line "A rush linebacker, a NT, a safety or two, maybe a DE or a SAM LB, and I think we're just about set", with the exception of the DE I thought I had pretty much done that. Reed should be able to play DE in certain scenarios.

1) Patrick Peterson (CB) - We can now move Quinn to FS.
2) Brooks Reed (OLB)
5) Jeron Johnson (SS)
6) Blaine Sumner (NT)
7) Mario Harvey (ILB)
7a) Denarius Moore (WR)
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Old 03-16-2011   #22
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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In 2009 the Browns traded from #5 to #17 (12 spots) for a 1st, 2nd and three scrub players. You want to give up 2 firsts, a 3rd and 4th to move up 8 spots? I dont think so.

I agree with some of the others. If he slides past Arizona make the call. Other than that stay where you are or drop down.
The problem this year is you can't trade any players if they haven't worked out the CBA contract by then. Points wise that's about what it would take to trade up that far. As I said in one of my other responses, if Peterson gets past Arizona then he becomes more affordable for several other teams as well & would probably bring them into the mix. This was just an off the wall idea to see what it would take to make such a bold move.
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Old 03-16-2011   #23
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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Cute.
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Old 03-16-2011   #24
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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I believe that trading back is harder to do than trading up. Finding a team that's willing to pay a premium for only one player is very difficult unless the team trading down is willing to take less than fair value & most won't do it.

As for your last line "A rush linebacker, a NT, a safety or two, maybe a DE or a SAM LB, and I think we're just about set", with the exception of the DE I thought I had pretty much done that. Reed should be able to play DE in certain scenarios.

1) Patrick Peterson (CB) - We can now move Quinn to FS.
2) Brooks Reed (OLB)
5) Jeron Johnson (SS)
6) Blaine Sumner (NT)
7) Mario Harvey (ILB)
7a) Denarius Moore (WR)
I'm sorry, but when have we ever filled that many holes in one draft?

I think folks are really stretching it to think that having extra 2nd, 3rd or 4th round picks in one draft is going to lead to holes being filled.

And more importantly, we are talking about rookies here...Not too many are going to come in and have a significant impact in yr one...if ever...I'm also not really thrilled about starting 4 rookies on defense next year....

I like your trade up scenario and IMHO, I think that is the way to go...
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Old 03-16-2011   #25
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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I'm not really sure as to why everyone thinks that the Texans can just easily move up or down in the draft every year like it's no problem. Every off season we have these threads around here like moving up and down in a draft only involves one team wanting to do it. Well, it takes two teams to agree on that. If I'm not mistaken Kubiak has only moved his draft spot in the first round one time since he's been here. He may have tried in other years to do so, but it's not easy to just find some team that has a desperate need to move up or down to fit what you're trying to do where you can get compensated for it enough to make it worth your while. I doubt we move anywhere in the draft.



Are you serious with this suggestion??
All mock drafts are as useless as it gets. They just give draftniks a way to throw out ideas that someone else may not have thought of. Don't let yourself get upset if the idea is too outlandish. It's all in good fun.

As for the actual cost to move up 8 spots, that's what it would cost if the Texans decided to make such a bold move.
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Old 03-16-2011   #26
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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I'm sorry, but when have we ever filled that many holes in one draft?

I think folks are really stretching it to think that having extra 2nd, 3rd or 4th round picks in one draft is going to lead to holes being filled.

And more importantly, we are talking about rookies here...Not too many are going to come in and have a significant impact in yr one...if ever...I'm also not really thrilled about starting 4 rookies on defense next year....

I like your trade up scenario and IMHO, I think that is the way to go...
The thing is that you generally only fill holes with players from the first three rounds. You can't expect anyone else to start.

If you can trade back in the first and then bundle up those 5-7 round picks to trade up and get an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick, then you've just gained an extra guy that might really contribute.

In Hottodie's scenario, you've got 2 guys that will probably contribute as opposed to 3 if you just hold steady. If you can trade back and then back up, you might be able to wrangle 4.
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Old 03-16-2011   #27
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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I believe that trading back is harder to do than trading up. Finding a team that's willing to pay a premium for only one player is very difficult unless the team trading down is willing to take less than fair value & most won't do it.

As for your last line "A rush linebacker, a NT, a safety or two, maybe a DE or a SAM LB, and I think we're just about set", with the exception of the DE I thought I had pretty much done that. Reed should be able to play DE in certain scenarios.

1) Patrick Peterson (CB) - We can now move Quinn to FS.
2) Brooks Reed (OLB)
5) Jeron Johnson (SS)
6) Blaine Sumner (NT)
7) Mario Harvey (ILB)
7a) Denarius Moore (WR)
The problem is although you've drafted to fill a bunch of holes that we have, the guys you drafted probably aren't going to fill them. And if they DO fill them, we're probably in trouble.

It's the guys that are in the first 3-4 rounds that usually fill holes. By moving up, you've gotten 2 guys and filled 3 holes. If you had stood pat, you could possibly have gotten 4 guys to fill 4 holes.

Although, honestly, if we look at the draft as being the only way we're going to fix our defense, we're pretty much screwed. I expect us to draft 2-3 guys we think will start immediately in the first 3 rounds. Then fill the remaining holes via FA. And probably go into the season with a hole or two that we have to find a way to gameplan and scheme to cover.
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Old 03-16-2011   #28
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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The thing is that you generally only fill holes with players from the first three rounds. You can't expect anyone else to start.

If you can trade back in the first and then bundle up those 5-7 round picks to trade up and get an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick, then you've just gained an extra guy that might really contribute.
I guess we just disagree on this aspect in particular. The Texans haven't had too many rookies come in and make significant contributions in year one. Brian Cushing, Demeco are two that immediately come to mind. Mario was ok...Duane Brown was platooned...Eric Winston didn't start for most of the year, Connor Barwin didn't start but he did ok in the sack column for a rookie...

Then you have a bunch of guys that never really did anything significant.

I want to compete next year. I think trading back and picking up all those picks means that we will probably not really be a contender until the year after....maybe not even then

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In Hottodie's scenario, you've got 2 guys that will probably contribute as opposed to 3 if you just hold steady. If you can trade back and then back up, you might be able to wrangle 4. There is very little legal repercussion to fights outside of a school
In Hottodie's scenario we are landing a guy that has a lot of potential to be star player.

I'll put it this way...I'd trade Connor Barwin, Jacoby Jones, Kareem Jackson, Earl Mitchell, Fred Bennett, Antwaun Molden, Steve Slaton, Antoine Caldwell, Darryll Sharpton, Xavier Adibi for a Champ Bailey type player.

Looking back on the Smithiak draft history, adding a bunch of mid round picks doesn't really excite me.

Honestly, I think I get more excited when they bring in the UDFA's or when they make mid season FA acquisitions...
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Old 03-16-2011   #29
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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In Hottodie's scenario we are landing a guy that has a lot of potential to be star player.

I'll put it this way...I'd trade Connor Barwin, Jacoby Jones, Kareem Jackson, Earl Mitchell, Fred Bennett, Antwaun Molden, Steve Slaton, Antoine Caldwell, Darryll Sharpton, Xavier Adibi for a Champ Bailey type player.

Looking back on the Smithiak draft history, adding a bunch of mid round picks doesn't really excite me.

Honestly, I think I get more excited when they bring in the UDFA's or when they make mid season FA acquisitions...
What you're really saying is the first round guy is the only guy that really matters. And basically that none of the guys in Hottodie's mock really make a difference except Peterson and that's because you think he's going to be a Champ Bailey.

The draft is a crap shoot. You really don't know which guys are going to end up being great and which guys are going to fail. Top 10 DBs aren't a lock to turn into Champ Bailey or Deion Sanders. Sometimes you get Tom Knight. I have to grant you that most CBs taken top 10 are pretty good, but it's not a lock. And two of the best CBs today were taken later in the 1st. Nnamdi was almost taken in the 2nd.

I think it's much more important for us to have an edge rusher than a CB in this draft and I think we can get a good one of those even if we drop back a few spots.
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Old 03-16-2011   #30
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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The problem is although you've drafted to fill a bunch of holes that we have, the guys you drafted probably aren't going to fill them. And if they DO fill them, we're probably in trouble.

It's the guys that are in the first 3-4 rounds that usually fill holes. By moving up, you've gotten 2 guys and filled 3 holes. If you had stood pat, you could possibly have gotten 4 guys to fill 4 holes.

Although, honestly, if we look at the draft as being the only way we're going to fix our defense, we're pretty much screwed. I expect us to draft 2-3 guys we think will start immediately in the first 3 rounds. Then fill the remaining holes via FA. And probably go into the season with a hole or two that we have to find a way to gameplan and scheme to cover.
I agree with everything you're saying, but you have to consider the impact of the player you're trading up for in comparison to the 3rd & 4th round pick you might be able to get. I'm not saying Peterson will turn into a Revis or Bailey type player that can shut down one entire side of the secondary, but if you felt like he was that type of player wouldn't that offset the contributions of a borderline 3rd or 4th round pick?

I guess it's the perceived impact of that special player that would determine whether or not the steep cost would be worth the sacrifice. Also, with the exception of the 2006 draft our 3rd & 4th round picks have been backups at best. The only reason some of them had any real impact was as a result of us having very few quality starters.
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Old 03-16-2011   #31
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

If Texans can get a better pass rush with only three up front it opens up the playbook for Wade to come in multiple blitz packages.

The Texans need more picks instead of less because #1 they lack depth. #2 they're changing defensive schemes. They need to be more like the Patriots, this year it seems they have two complete drafts all in one, how do you think they restock the cupboards & keep their death grip on the rest of the NFL
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Old 03-16-2011   #32
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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What you're really saying is the first round guy is the only guy that really matters. And basically that none of the guys in Hottodie's mock really make a difference except Peterson and that's because you think he's going to be a Champ Bailey.

The draft is a crap shoot. You really don't know which guys are going to end up being great and which guys are going to fail. Top 10 DBs aren't a lock to turn into Champ Bailey or Deion Sanders. Sometimes you get Tom Knight. I have to grant you that most CBs taken top 10 are pretty good, but it's not a lock. And two of the best CBs today were taken later in the 1st. Nnamdi was almost taken in the 2nd.

I think it's much more important for us to have an edge rusher than a CB in this draft and I think we can get a good one of those even if we drop back a few spots.
I would not mind Peterson at all, but if we traded up I'd want them to take Miller.

And I realize the draft is a crap shoot, but I think that this regime would be better served if they had some options eliminated for them.

I understand Wade will be having a lot of input in this years draft, but this regime has not done well with mid to late round picks overall. They've drafted way more guys that haven't contributed much than guys that have.
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Old 03-16-2011   #33
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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If Texans can get a better pass rush with only three up front it opens up the playbook for Wade to come in multiple blitz packages.

The Texans need more picks instead of less because #1 they lack depth. #2 they're changing defensive schemes. They need to be more like the Patriots, this year it seems they have two complete drafts all in one, how do you think they restock the cupboards & keep their death grip on the rest of the NFL
I disagree that we lack depth.

I think that we lack quality starters. I think that some of the starters we have would make excellent depth.
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Old 03-16-2011   #34
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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I agree with everything you're saying, but you have to consider the impact of the player you're trading up for in comparison to the 3rd & 4th round pick you might be able to get. I'm not saying Peterson will turn into a Revis or Bailey type player that can shut down one entire side of the secondary, but if you felt like he was that type of player wouldn't that offset the contributions of a borderline 3rd or 4th round pick?

I guess it's the perceived impact of that special player that would determine whether or not the steep cost would be worth the sacrifice. Also, with the exception of the 2006 draft our 3rd & 4th round picks have been backups at best. The only reason some of them had any real impact was as a result of us having very few quality starters.
But the problem here is that you're comparing the 1 guy with the other. And that neglects the fact that you're actually comparing 1 guy against multiple guys. Instead of just a top 10 pick against a 3rd or 4th round guy, you're talking about a top 10 pick against a top 11 pick PLUS a third and a fourth round pick.

Is having a guy who shuts down half the field better than having a guy that gets 13+ sacks a year plus a couple of other guys that contribute to the team as well... and possibly contribute a lot.

But then again, a lot of mocks have him dropping all the way to 7. If we're trading up to 6 instead of trading up to 3... that could be a different discussion.
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Old 03-16-2011   #35
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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Is having a guy who shuts down half the field better than having a guy that gets 13+ sacks a year plus a couple of other guys that contribute to the team as well... and possibly contribute a lot.
I'm gonna take the guy that shuts down half the field.

Plus, I don't think that any of the guys available where we are picking will be getting 13+ sacks a year...Heck, the guy we took #1 overall doesn't do that...
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Old 03-16-2011   #36
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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But the problem here is that you're comparing the 1 guy with the other. And that neglects the fact that you're actually comparing 1 guy against multiple guys. Instead of just a top 10 pick against a 3rd or 4th round guy, you're talking about a top 10 pick against a top 11 pick PLUS a third and a fourth round pick.

Is having a guy who shuts down half the field better than having a guy that gets 13+ sacks a year plus a couple of other guys that contribute to the team as well... and possibly contribute a lot.

But then again, a lot of mocks have him dropping all the way to 7. If we're trading up to 6 instead of trading up to 3... that could be a different discussion.
You're right, but I guess it depends upon what player you feel you need the most. We've got two pretty good starting DE's at the moment & taking a DE at #11 would only (possibly) upgrade a position that is already solid. We have huge holes at the OLB, NT, CB & safety positions. You could eliminate safety from consideration at #11 since there are none worthy of that pick. That just leaves OLB, CB & NT. In my opinion the top tier impact players at those positions (Peterson, Amukamara, Miller, Quinn, Bowers, Dareus & Fairley) could very well be gone by #11.

In the end there is always a chance that one of those players could drop to us which would make trading up not as attractive. But, as I said, it all depends upon what player you want the most & what you're willing to pay to get him. There is no single right answer.
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Old 03-16-2011   #37
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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Plus, I don't think that any of the guys available where we are picking will be getting 13+ sacks a year...Heck, the guy we took #1 overall doesn't do that...
Terrell Suggs was picked 10th overall
Damarcus Ware was picked 11th overall
Tamba Hali was picked 20th overall
Clay Matthews was picked 26th overall
James Harrison was an undrafted free agent
Cameron Wake was an undrafted free agent
Elvis Dumervil was selected in the 4th round

You make it sound like it's Von Miller or bust when it comes to the OLBs this year. I think there's a ton of talent that will be available at 11 and through our 2nd round pick: Robert Quin, Brooks Reed, Akeem Ayers, Aldon Smith, Sam Acho, Justin Houston, Ryan Kerrigan, Adrian Clayborn, to name a few.

I just think this is the classic mentality that there are only 2-3 truly elite talents and everyone else sucks. It happens every single year. Teams miss out on the Aaron Curry's, Eric Berry's and the Brian Orakpo's all the time in the draft but they pick up players like Brian Cushing, Earl Thomas and Clay Matthews.

Staying at 11 and not trading up to 3 won't be the end of the world.

EDIT - Rey, not saying you have that mentality but all of us in general, including myself at times. It's so easy to get down on your teams' draft position because we alway covet those players JUST out of reach. That happens when you're at #5, #11 or even #20.
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Old 03-16-2011   #38
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

^^^ This.
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Old 03-16-2011   #39
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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You're right, but I guess it depends upon what player you feel you need the most. We've got two pretty good starting DE's at the moment & taking a DE at #11 would only (possibly) upgrade a position that is already solid. We have huge holes at the OLB, NT, CB & safety positions. You could eliminate safety from consideration at #11 since there are none worthy of that pick. That just leaves OLB, CB & NT. In my opinion the top tier impact players at those positions (Peterson, Amukamara, Miller, Quinn, Bowers, Dareus & Fairley) could very well be gone by #11.

In the end there is always a chance that one of those players could drop to us which would make trading up not as attractive. But, as I said, it all depends upon what player you want the most & what you're willing to pay to get him. There is no single right answer.
For me, I don't consider CB a hole that's going to be (or needs to be) fixed in the draft. I consider that an FA issue. We need an experienced corner, not a rookie.

I think the only position we draft at #11 is OLB and I think there are plenty of candidates who will do a great job at that draft spot. Although it would be nice if Quinn fell to us, I think there are plenty of other options that would be fine at #11. There are so many candidates at #11 that I think we can drop back a few spots and still get one of them and be very successful.

The Texans may have their eye on someone and they may trade up to get him. If Peterson drops past 5, then we might trade up to get him. If Miller drops past 7 or 8 then we might trade up to get him. But I don't think they're going to trade all the way up to 3. That's just too costly.
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Old 03-16-2011   #40
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Default Re: Hottoddie's "TEXAN'S PONY UP to TRADE UP" Mock Draft

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The Texans may have their eye on someone and they may trade up to get him. If Peterson drops past 5, then we might trade up to get him. If Miller drops past 7 or 8 then we might trade up to get him. But I don't think they're going to trade all the way up to 3. That's just too costly.
That's what I'm thinking as well. I could see us moving up in front of Tennessee and Dallas if Von Miller makes it to San Francisco's spot... that is if Kubiak/Phillips really covet Miller. I do think we're going to be surprised though at what players slip on draft day and what players get selected early... it happens every year and I can see one being available at 11.

Shoot, Nick Fairley was the concensus #1 pick for months and I think there's a possibility he could even slip and be available at 11 (not that I would want him, per se).

I'm really interested in the DEs, particularly JJ Watt. I know that's not really considered a weakness or need for us but I think he would be more usefull and get more playing time than people think. Watt and Antonio would be DEs when Mario lines up as an OLB (when mario is technically considered an OLB even if he doesn't assume the normal responsibilities). Watt and Mario would be the DEs in the 4-3 base when Antonio moves inside to DT alongside Mitchell. Connor Barwin and/or Rookie OLB would play the Joker along the line too. I think there's some merit to the pick and a relatively "safe" pick in my opinion. And as much talk as there is about Mario not doing well at DE... I'm not sold on Antonio as a 3-4 DE. Sure he may have played the position at Arizona for a bit but it's not like he really excelled at it. As much as I really like Von Miller and would love him on our team, he scares me a bit and I think there is some risk to him.
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