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Old 04-14-2005   #21
gtexan02
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Sep 11. @ Buffalo --- loss
Sep 18 vs. Pitt ----- loss
Sep 25 BYE
Oct 2 @ Cin --------loss
Oct 9 vs. Tenn ----- win
Oct 16 @ Sea ----- loss
Oct 23 vs. Indy ----loss
Oct 30 vs. Clev --- win
Nov 6 @ Jax -------loss
Nov 13 @ Indy -----loss
Nov 20 vs. KC ------loss
Nov 27 vs. StL ---- win
Dec 4 @ Balt -------loss
Dec 11 @ Tenn ---- win
Dec 18 vs. Ariz -----win
Sat. Dec 24 vs. Jax -win
Jan 1 @ SF ---------win

7-9, possibly 6-10 or 8-8. don't see us doing too much worse/better than that.
Or, look at it like this:

Tier 1 teams: Indy, Pittsburg, Baltimore
Tier 2 teams: Jax, Cin, Sea, KC, Ariz, Buffalo, Stl
Tier 3 teams: SF, Tenn, Clev

If we lose all our Tier 1 games, (4 losses), win all our tier 3 games (4 wins), and split the Tier 2 games, that is 8-8 season.

And finally, look at it like this:
Playoff teams: Indy, Pittsburg, Baltimore, Buffalo, Stl, Sea
Just missed: Jax, Clev, KC
Not even close: Tenn, Clev, SF, Ariz

5 wins for not even close, 7 losses for playoff teams, split just misseds, to end 7-9
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Old 04-14-2005   #22
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So far, this offseason has been a net loss. Considering they won 7 last year, I don't see them doing much better, at least at this point. I want to see what they get in the draft, but right now, I would say 7 or 8 wins. Once the draft is complete, I will have a better idea. If they do really well in the draft, I might go as high as 9 wins. Any more than that is simply a pipe dream imo.
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Old 04-14-2005   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gtexan02
And finally, look at it like this:
Playoff teams: Indy, Pittsburg, Baltimore, Buffalo, Stl, Sea
Just missed: Jax, Clev, KC
Not even close: Tenn, Clev, SF, Ariz

5 wins for not even close, 7 losses for playoff teams, split just misseds, to end 7-9
I can't agree with using playoff teams as an analysis factor. Seattle and St.Louis got their playoff spots thanks to weakness of competition. Neither team would have had a prayer in any other division. Buffalo didn't make the playoffs, BTW, though they probably should have. Of course, they also changed their QB out since then so we don't know whether they'll be as good as they were last year or not.

4 of Seattle's 9 wins came against teams that have Top 5 draft picks this year. Another win came against Atlanta in Week 17 who was just mailing it in with playoff positioning already set. This Week 17 win was their only one against a team that finished with a winning record. Yet one more of their wins came from a team on your "not even close" list, Arizona.

St. Louis finished with an 8-8 record. Only 3 of their wins came against Top 5 picking teams, and a fourth from Arizona. They had 4 wins against winning record teams. Though two of these came against Seattle, another was Week 16 against a team which had already secured home-field throughout the playoffs (Philly). The other winning record game was in overtime in Week 17, in which their opponent clinched a playoff spot mid-game (when Buffalo lost in another game) while St. Louis needed the win to make the postseason. Guess who was losing BEFORE the Jets clinched?

Either of those two teams would have finished 4th if they played in the AFC South instead of the NFC West.
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Old 04-14-2005   #24
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I see a little improvement 8 and 8.
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Old 04-14-2005   #25
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At least .500, and maybe an extra win or two.
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Old 04-14-2005   #26
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Great season... 11-5 depending on us beating Indy at home.

Good season... 9-7, a few tough wins we would've lost in the past, a few tough losses

Bad season.... 8-8, Capers needs to be given the "You have one more year" talk with Bob McNair.
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Old 04-14-2005   #27
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Anyone who thinks we havent improved this offseason isnt looking at the big picture.


We are not an established team... big free agency signings are not going to make a huge impact with us.

Our improvement this next season will not be because of any signings we have made.. it will be because our young players have continued to improve every year.

Carr will be better, Johnson will be better, Davis will probably be better because our Oline will be better. Babin and Robinson will be better.. Our best players are only gonna get better.. and that will improve the entire team.

People who dont follow the Texans think we arent going to go anywhere because they cant wrap their heads around the idea that we do not (at this point) have to bring in playmakers every year for our team to improve. Dont fall into that way of thinking.
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Old 04-14-2005   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grid
Anyone who thinks we havent improved this offseason isnt looking at the big picture.


We are not an established team... big free agency signings are not going to make a huge impact with us.

Our improvement this next season will not be because of any signings we have made.. it will be because our young players have continued to improve every year.

Carr will be better, Johnson will be better, Davis will probably be better because our Oline will be better. Babin and Robinson will be better.. Our best players are only gonna get better.. and that will improve the entire team.

People who dont follow the Texans think we arent going to go anywhere because they cant wrap their heads around the idea that we do not (at this point) have to bring in playmakers every year for our team to improve. Dont fall into that way of thinking.

I don't totally disagree with that, but there is a flip side. Losing Sharper is a blow. Foreman, while a jorneyman imo, was a smart vet and understood the system. We have many guys aging, who may be worse than last year. Payne, Glenn, and Walker are possible examples. You are forecasting things that nobody has a way of knowing. Babin Should be better, but that doesn't mean he will be. For every Robinson, I can see you a Walker, and raise you a Glenn and Sharper. I always try to look at all sides, and try to remove the rose colored shades before making my analysis.
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Old 04-14-2005   #29
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My God, is that me agreeing with Porky?? Say it isn't so!!
But seriously, I do agree with what you say Porky, I just feel we havn't done enough to get us over the hump and have subtracted in a key area of our defense.

If you don't think Free Agency helps your team then you need to just look at how the 2 Super Bowl contenders did in Free Agency (see Dillon, Harrison, Owens, Kearse....etc). Our team right now is short of 2-3 high caliber veteran players and I hate to tel you this, but Greenwood aint it! You don't just build a team of rookies, nor do you build a team exclusively through FA, there has to be a nice mix. With our off season so far, we are failing and falling well short.
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Old 04-14-2005   #30
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We go on a tear in 2005 and win 11 games. Texans are further along than many people know. This is going to be a seriously pivotal season and will go down in Texans history as "2005, the year we get payback".
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Old 04-14-2005   #31
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I can definatly see where you are coming from Porky, but I disagree that we have regressed.

Losing Sharper was definatly a blow.. but not so major as many people make it out to be. We have not necessarily LOST talent.. we have simply replaced him with someone who we feel is actually an upgrade (at least in our system). If we had replaced Sharper with Ray Lewis.. i dont think anyone would be calling it a downgrade. The difference is that Greenwood is not a well known player, and has not yet made a name for himself as a playmaker.. but apparently our front office thinks he will be a better fit in our system, and I trust their judgement. I dont really think of that as rose colored glasses, because I dont feel im stretching the truth to make my team seem better.. I just havent been given any reason NOT to trust our front office.

I worry that our defense will not be as strong against the run when we are going up against a power running team. Im just not sure that our ILBs will be as talented at jamming the run up the middle as Sharper and Foreman were.. but I think we have improved our ability to stop the run to the outside.. which was a weakness last year. As well as our ability to cover TEs and slot receivers.. which was another weakness.

Glenn's "fall" has been over exaggerated in my opinion. Glenn actually measured up just fine when compared to the other top corners in the league. THe difference is that we had Dunta Robinson putting on quite a show.. and it made Glenn look not so good. I wouldnt say that Glenn is IMPROVING.. or even playing at the same skill level.. he is definatly showing a bit of his age.. but I do not think it is a weakness for us at this point.

Walker, as many have said in other threads.. could still have a season or two left in him. He has struggled with injuries the last two seasons, but maybe he will put up a complete season this year. He still has gas in the tank. Either way.. I beleive we will draft a DT on the first day and we will have some young talent to back him up. Payne is great when he isnt injured.. if he can avoid another injury this year he will be just as good as ever... and Robaire Smith has a year in our system and will probably be even better next year.

Babin and Robinson. Babin, I think, will definatly improve next year. I just dont see him having a sophmore slump. He will have an offseason to work on technique.. and considering our high standards on character and work ethic, I think he can expect that he has and will work hard to improve. Robinson.. I would say it is feasible that he could have a sophmore slump.. but considering the kind of player he is (so versatile) and how much he picked up just in his first season.. I dont think he is going to get lazy and allow himself to slide. This may be looking at it with rose colored glasses.. but, again.. I see no reason to think otherwise. Maybe im a mutant.. born without a "pessimism" gene.



Free Agency DOES help your team.. but it is not the key to the superbowl as you are making it out to be SES. If the Cardinals had signed Dillon and Harrison do you think they would have won the superbowl? What if the Lions had?

nope.. Free Agency is a useful tool for adding depth, or getting those one or two players that you need to "push you over the hump" and get you to the superbowl. We dont need a little push to get over the hump. We are still building our defense.. we are not a player away from having a complete team. We are still ironing out the zone blocking of our offensive line.. trying to add youth to our Dline.. and completely restructuring our LBs. This is not a situation where you can sign your cap space away on a couple of big names and ride them to the superbowl.

We made the RIGHT move in free agency.. we resigned all of our key players.. and we have made the first (big) step in restructuring our LBs to add some speed and pass rushing ability. Greenwood was not a bad signing, no matter how you cut it. And releasing sharper was not a bad move either.. I wouldnt have minded keeping him around for another season, because he was a solid LB, but honestly I think we will find better things to do with that cap space, and he was not an integral part of our defense.. despite what some people may think.

basicly.. Free Agency is great for the right team.. but it is not the only way to improve your team. Look at the Colts. They have made no big free agency moves the last couple years.. but they have continued to dominate.. why? because they have kept their talent, and continued to develop their rookies. That, IMO, is the BETTER route to take if you want to be dominant for a long time, and not be a one and done team.


If I am looking at the texans with rose colored glasses, then you are looking at them with **** colored glasses.
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Old 04-14-2005   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SESupergenius
I'm going to say we go like this, but it's still early:

Oct 9 vs. Tenn ----- loss
Dec 11 @ Tenn ---- loss

Another 7-9 season. Another season of injuries and no depth.
There is a very interesting mix of unbelievably optimistic people and chicken littles on this board, and this may be the most extreme evidence of pessimism I have ever seen here...Do you honestly think we're going to get swept by the Titans? The same Titans that have lost 6 starters this offseason?
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Old 04-14-2005   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Porky
I don't totally disagree with that, but there is a flip side. Losing Sharper is a blow. Foreman, while a jorneyman imo, was a smart vet and understood the system. We have many guys aging, who may be worse than last year. Payne, Glenn, and Walker are possible examples. You are forecasting things that nobody has a way of knowing. Babin Should be better, but that doesn't mean he will be. For every Robinson, I can see you a Walker, and raise you a Glenn and Sharper. I always try to look at all sides, and try to remove the rose colored shades before making my analysis.

Uh... didn't you just accuse him of forecasting? Are you not forecasting when you assert losing Sharper is a blow? Are you forecasting that our "aged" will be worse? I really question the last sentence in your summary. Let's lighten up a bit guys. No one knows what any player will do in the future, but talking about it like the guy you disagreed with did is what the fun is about.
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Old 04-14-2005   #34
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7-9 at worst.. 10-6 at best.
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Old 04-14-2005   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Meloy
Uh... didn't you just accuse him of forecasting? Are you not forecasting when you assert losing Sharper is a blow? Are you forecasting that our "aged" will be worse? I really question the last sentence in your summary. Let's lighten up a bit guys. No one knows what any player will do in the future, but talking about it like the guy you disagreed with did is what the fun is about.
I hear ya. I wasn't neccessarily disagreeing, as my first sentence indicated. However, as fans, we tend to look at the glass as always being half full. I was simply giving the rebuttal. It's like in a trial, if you only listened to the prosecution, every defendent is guilty and should be hung at sunrise. It's not until you hear the totally opposite side, the defense, who thinks his client is a Saint, that you then bring both sides together, and figure out the entire picture. In the end, the truth lies somewhere in the middle, and I was simply pointing out the flip side of his optimistic assessment.

BTW - Armagedden must be near. Ses agreed with me!

edit - and no I am not forecasting when I say losing Sharper is a blow. He has proven himself in this system. He isn't Ray Lewis, but he was a solid, steady, performer. Many of you were crazy about him, and were wondering how he could be overlooked for the Pro-Bowl. I was one who said he was solid, but not Pro-Bowl calibur. Now that he is gone, everyone is saying he was no good. Fans seem to think that as soon as someone arrives on their team, they are the next coming of Lawrence Taylor, but the minute they leave, they turn into Elizabeth Taylor. I try to tell it like it is, and I have my own opinions - good or bad.
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Old 04-14-2005   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hervoyel
We go on a tear in 2005 and win 11 games. Texans are further along than many people know. This is going to be a seriously pivotal season and will go down in Texans history as "2005, the year we get payback".
...here's hoping the Texans don't start this year like they began and ended
last year!! :woot
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Old 04-14-2005   #37
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Fans seem to think that as soon as someone arrives on their team, they are the next coming of Lawrence Taylor, but the minute they leave, they turn into Elizabeth Taylor. I try to tell it like it is, and I have my own opinions - good or bad.
hehe.. that is very true. Im guilty of that at times. Its the rose colored glasses.. everyone seems to be better when they play for us.. its not till they leave that I realize we can live without them.

The absolute worst fans when it comes to this.. in my experience.. is Dolphin fans. They absolutely love you when you play for them.. but when you leave. You are the biggest sorry son of a ***** ever to set foot on earth. You were never any good and you will never be a starter anywhere else. Your children will be born with six toes and you will suffer from male pattern baldness.
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Old 04-14-2005   #38
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@Buffalo------Win
Pittsburgh-----Lose
bye
@cincinatti----Win
Tennessee----Win
@Seattle------Win
Indianapolis----Lose
Cleveland------Win
@Jacksonville--Win
@Indianapolis--Lose
Kansas City----WIN
St.Louis-------Lose
@Baltamore---Lose
@Tennessee--Lose
Arizona-------Win
Jacksonville---Win
@San Francisco-Win

10-6 seems reasonable to me, just depends what moves we make in the future and what happens before and during the season.
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Old 04-16-2005   #39
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again..... im not a texan fan... here is an unbiased prediction:

Sep 11. @ Buffalo -- LOSS
Sep 18 vs. Pitt ----- LOSS
Sep 25 BYE
Oct 2 @ Cin ------ WIN
Oct 9 vs. Tenn ---- WIN
Oct 16 @ Sea ----- WIN
Oct 23 vs. Indy --- LOSS
Oct 30 vs. Clev --- WIN
Nov 6 @ Jax ------ WIN
Nov 13 @ Indy ---- WIN
Nov 20 vs. KC ----- WIN
Nov 27 vs. StL ---- LOSS
Dec 4 @ Balt ------ LOSS
Dec 11 @ Tenn ---- WIN
Dec 18 vs. Ariz ---- LOSS
Sat. Dec 24 vs. Jax - WIN
Jan 1 @ SF --------- WIN

10-6.. wildcard
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Old 04-16-2005   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalemurphy
I'm going to say somewhere between 6 wins and 12 wins: depending on injuries, a few breaks, and how the team may/may not gel together...

I'd be willing to put some money on it too!

i say anywhere between 1 win and 1 loss.
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