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Old 02-23-2011   #1
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Default Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

We all hope to find value at the #11 pick and if not then we all hope that the Texans are able to trade down. The difficulty in trading down is in finding a team to trade with and a reason for them to trade up. My trade partner is the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks biggest need is QB but they're picking at #25 after barely making the playoffs. The Minnesota Vikings are picking at #12 and also need a QB, this gives Seattle motive to move up if Gabbert or Newton are still on the board. I used the NFL trade value chart for this trade down scenario. I know this chart isn't terribly accurate and teams don't really go by it for value but it's what us arm chair GM's have to go by for value. The Texans #11 pick is worth 1250 pts., the Seahawks #25 pick is worth 720 pts. thus a difference of 530 pts.. The Seahawks 2nd round pick #57 overall is worth 330 pts.. I propose we trade #11 for #25 and #57. This trade scenario seems realistic. Opinions or other REALISTIC trade scenarios?


With this trade down we select Justin Houston-OLB in the 1st round and then have two 2nd round picks to spend on a quality FS and possible NT or CB. This would go a long ways to helping us fill some of those defensive holes.
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Old 02-23-2011   #2
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

Seahawks would be trading their only two draft picks for 11th overall then waiting until the 5th rd. to pick again. Plus they traded for QB Charlie Whitehurst before the draft last year, swapping early 2nd for late 2nd plus this years 3rd pick. Not as expensive as the Matt Schaub trade but certainly a big gamble in terms of picks. They also somehow picked up Nate Davis who I really, really like off San Francisco & Hasselbeck actually showed he can still play, just needs better inside protection. So I would stand pat @ #25 & take the top guard off the board Mike Pouncey to build a stronger pocket.
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Old 02-23-2011   #3
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

Thanks BL, I didn't know that about the trade last year and their lack of picks this year.
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Old 02-23-2011   #4
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

Besides, this QB draft is so bad I wouldn't trade picks to get Blaine Gabert. Or Scam Newton. No body worth a shit.
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Old 02-23-2011   #5
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

The Texans made a desperate reach for Duane Brown a couple years ago because they "NEEDED" a LT and they heard another team was gonna take
him in the first round. They also made a pick in the first round last year because they "NEEDED" a CB, but again left player(s) on the Board at other positions who were clearly more highly rated. Trying to fill a specific need in the short-term and thereby passing up opportunities to Draft more talented players only hurts the team over the longer term, especially in the very high part of the Draft in the first round.
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Old 02-23-2011   #6
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by IDEXAN View Post
The Texans made a desperate reach for Duane Brown a couple years ago because they "NEEDED" a LT and they heard another team was gonna take
him in the first round. They also made a pick in the first round last year because they "NEEDED" a CB, but again left player(s) on the Board at other positions who were clearly more highly rated. Trying to fill a specific need in the short-term and thereby passing up opportunities to Draft more talented players only hurts the team over the longer term, especially in the very high part of the Draft in the first round.
This. The reason you can't ignore free agency is you don't want to have to draft for need, because when you do you can leave really good players on the board. You draft BPA. You can exclude certain positions at times, but you don't zero in on a CB because you HAVE to have one.
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Old 02-23-2011   #7
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

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Originally Posted by BigBull17 View Post
Besides, this QB draft is so bad I wouldn't trade picks to get Blaine Gabert. Or Scam Newton. No body worth a shit.
While I agree with you about the overall lack of QB talent in this draft, Gabbert and Newton are both moving up draft boards and one or both stand a decent chance of being picked before us. QB is also one of the very few positions that teams will make a major trade up to acquire. I was thinking that Seattle had a playoff team last year but really needs help at QB and since Minnesota at #12 also needs a QB, and there are so few good ones, that Seattle may want to move ahead of Minnesota. I was unaware of the draft picks they had invested in Whitehurst.

Walterfootball has both Gabbert and Newton going in the top 10.
http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2011.php
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Old 02-23-2011   #8
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by IDEXAN View Post
The Texans made a desperate reach for Duane Brown a couple years ago because they "NEEDED" a LT and they heard another team was gonna take
him in the first round. They also made a pick in the first round last year because they "NEEDED" a CB, but again left player(s) on the Board at other positions who were clearly more highly rated. Trying to fill a specific need in the short-term and thereby passing up opportunities to Draft more talented players only hurts the team over the longer term, especially in the very high part of the Draft in the first round.
so in this case lets go after julio jones!!!! even with our defensive woes i would be really excited and happy with this pick. as long as we use the remaining picks on defence and secure some secondary help through the eventual FA.
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Old 02-23-2011   #9
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

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Originally Posted by Wolf6151 View Post
While I agree with you about the overall lack of QB talent in this draft, Gabbert and Newton are both moving up draft boards and one or both stand a decent chance of being picked before us. QB is also one of the very few positions that teams will make a major trade up to acquire. I was thinking that Seattle had a playoff team last year but really needs help at QB and since Minnesota at #12 also needs a QB, and there are so few good ones, that Seattle may want to move ahead of Minnesota. I was unaware of the draft picks they had invested in Whitehurst.

Walterfootball has both Gabbert and Newton going in the top 10.
http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2011.php
Heard on the radio that Cinci may be looking to take either Gabbert or Newton to back up/replace Palmer
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Old 02-23-2011   #10
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by IDEXAN View Post
The Texans made a desperate reach for Duane Brown a couple years ago because they "NEEDED" a LT and they heard another team was gonna take
him in the first round. They also made a pick in the first round last year because they "NEEDED" a CB, but again left player(s) on the Board at other positions who were clearly more highly rated. Trying to fill a specific need in the short-term and thereby passing up opportunities to Draft more talented players only hurts the team over the longer term, especially in the very high part of the Draft in the first round.
Most would say Texans missed on CB despite position to draft best one. It was not a reach as much a miss.

Brown was the best tackle on the board which Texans needed to address, so I don't have as much a problem with that, somtime need forces you to reach. Doesn't really matter does it if he completly meets requirement (LT) looking to achieve.
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Old 02-23-2011   #11
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

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Heard on the radio that Cinci may be looking to take either Gabbert or Newton to back up/replace Palmer
That's interesting, but their picking at #4 so they're not a potential trade partner. Is something wrong with Palmer that they'd be looking to replace him, he should have plenty of years left in the league. If they take a QB that only leaves one decent QB on the board and other teams may be interested in trading up with us to get ahead of Minnesota.

Anyone else have REALISTIC trade scenarios?
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Old 02-23-2011   #12
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

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Originally Posted by Wolf6151 View Post
That's interesting, but their picking at #4 so they're not a potential trade partner. Is something wrong with Palmer that they'd be looking to replace him, he should have plenty of years left in the league. If they take a QB that only leaves one decent QB on the board and other teams may be interested in trading up with us to get ahead of Minnesota.

Anyone else have REALISTIC trade scenarios?
Sorry not to meet your expectations. I was just pointing out what I have heard. Palmer has said that he either wants to be traded or he will retire.

I was not looking at us trading up, that I would not mind that for a reasonable deal, just backing up the idea that at least one QB is likely to go in the top 10. That enhances our chances for a top notch defender to fall to us.

I'll try to stay out of your REALITY in the future.
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Old 02-23-2011   #13
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

I honestly don't see any opportunities that could be considered realistic. The reason is because the only reason a team would want to trade with us is to jump over Minnesota.

So we need to take a look at Minnesota's needs. I see their biggest needs as DT (replacement for aging player), LT (replacement for aging player), and QB.

As far as QB goes, all the teams that need QBs draft before us, not after us. The only trade up possibility I see is if Jacksonville falls in love with a Garrard replacement and is afraid Minnesota will take him. But I find that unlikely. I don't see another team trading up in the first to get one. If no QBs go before our pick then maybe there is an outside shot that one of those teams wants to trade up from the top of the second to our pick, but we would lose our first in that situation.

As far as DT goes, the only guys worthy to be taken by our spot will be long gone.


Well, let's look at who needs a LT:

New England probably wants one. But they need a DE even more. Well, they don't need to move ahead of Minnesota to get one so they are out.

Tampa Bay could use one, but I think they are content to sit where they are at and take the best defensive player available.

Indianapolis could use one, but I think they would also prefer to sit and take a defensive player.

Chicago could use one, but they would have to give up a whole lot to move up that far. They probably prefer to sit where they are at.


Final Judgment:

The only way I see us trading back is if Nate Solder slips past Dallas and New England wants him. But they won't trade their #17 unless Cameron Jordan and J.J. Watt are both already off the board. They covet a DE with that pick.

Best thing for us would be a run on defensive players and NE's DE targets go off the board. Then Solder would have to fall to us.

NE trades from #17 to #11 for Solder. Then they can use their #28 on a DE like Allen Bailey. If you go by the trade value chart it actually works out perfectly. We get #17 and #60 (28th pick in round two) and NE gets #11. Both values are exactly 1250 points.

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Old 02-23-2011   #14
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

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Originally Posted by beerlover View Post
Brown was the best tackle on the board which Texans needed to address, so I don't have as much a problem with that, somtime need forces you to reach. Doesn't really matter does it if he completly meets requirement (LT) looking to achieve.
He may very well have been the best LT on the Board, but far from the best player available and that's my point, if a team Drafts first on need they miss the opportunities to acquire the best players and their team suffers over the longer term.
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Old 02-23-2011   #15
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

Miami doesn't have much to trade. But they need a QB.
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Old 02-23-2011   #16
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

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Originally Posted by JB View Post
Sorry not to meet your expectations. I was just pointing out what I have heard. Palmer has said that he either wants to be traded or he will retire.

I was not looking at us trading up, that I would not mind that for a reasonable deal, just backing up the idea that at least one QB is likely to go in the top 10. That enhances our chances for a top notch defender to fall to us.

I'll try to stay out of your REALITY in the future.
Cant Rep you

Reality?

What's that?

LOL
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Old 02-23-2011   #17
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

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Originally Posted by aussie_texan View Post
so in this case lets go after julio jones!!!! even with our defensive woes i would be really excited and happy with this pick. as long as we use the remaining picks on defence and secure some secondary help through the eventual FA.
Hypothetically - if when we draft in the first and Jones is rated a solid value at 11 but the the highest rated defensive player is rated a "late" first round pick, if we couldn't trade back and get additional picks (value) for our 11th overall, I'd seriously consider pulling the trigger on Jones instead of the defensive player who's rated a whole half round lesser prospect.
Drafting strictly on need is maybe acceptable in most rounds, but not the first and definitely not in the top third of the first round IMO.
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Old 02-23-2011   #18
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
Miami doesn't have much to trade. But they need a QB.
Yeah it would be pretty much impossible for Miami. They don't have a 2nd round pick so they would have to give up at least their 3rd and 4th, leaving them with only one pick in the first four rounds.

I suppose if we swapped 1st round picks and they gave us their 2nd round pick for next year it could happen.
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Old 02-23-2011   #19
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

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Miami doesn't have much to trade. But they need a QB.
You're right. Miami could be a trading partner with their need at QB and it looking like Gabbert or Newton might be available at 11 ?
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Old 02-23-2011   #20
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Default Re: Possible trade scenario...Opinions?

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He may very well have been the best LT on the Board, but far from the best player available and that's my point, if a team Drafts first on need they miss the opportunities to acquire the best players and their team suffers over the longer term.
Texans had to invest longterm to give Schaub better protection. If I remember correctly 07 was a rough year for him, everytime you looked somebody was body slamming him. There's two seconds worth of picks thrown away because you wanted better value? I suppose Texans could have waited another year passed on Cushing/Matthews & selected the blind side himself but might have had to draft another QB instead?

I'm glad they didn't wait & pulled the trigger finally with a decent LT.
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