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Old 02-21-2011   #1
aussie_texan
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Default No value at number 11

There is only three reasons i see the texans picking someone up at 11:

1) because one of the top 10 prospects (e.g. miller, Quinn, or one of the 2 CBs) drop to us....doubtful

2) Someone has an incredible combine (e.g. p.taylor NT, J.Houston OLB)

3) We don't go defence and pick the best offensive player on the board (e.g. julio jones)

Im really hoping that we either trade up and pick up a dominate play-makers (miller, PP)

or trade down to around the late teens and gain more picks to fix the holes on defence because without the possibility of FA (or at least after the draft) we're gonna need to fill a lot of holes.

Our MAJOR needs on defence are NT, OLB, CB, FS

NT - there is no one worthy of pick 11

OLB - after miller who is now a potential top 5 pick the other OLBs are all late teens at the highest

CB - i dont want us getting another rookie CB unless its one of the two top 10 CBs and that is unlikely. we need a veteran presence in the back field.

FS - again no one worthy of even a late 1st rounder. There are good (and a lot) prospects from round 2 onwards (e.g. Q.Carter, D.Williams, R.Moore)


GO TEXANS




PS -- too think that if we hadn't one that last game against the jags we would be picking at 6 if im correct.
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Old 02-21-2011   #2
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Default Re: No value at number 11

The texans are going to have to prepare to draft at 11 because that's the most probably outcome. Trading always requires a partner and if the Texans don't see value there, chances are that other teams below may have the same feeling. Also, there is plenty of time for the value to be recognized. With the lack of dominate talent in the draft, I think the gap between guys who are 8 to 20 os so is not that great...i.e. taking the 18th guy this year is not the "reach" that normally would be.
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Old 02-21-2011   #3
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Default Re: No value at number 11

At this early point in time, do we really know how this Draft ranks compared to other Drafts of recent years ? We have a feel for the strengths of this draft based on positions, but do we know how it ranks compared to other years ?
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Old 02-21-2011   #4
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Default Re: No value at number 11

Quote:
Originally Posted by aussie_texan View Post
1) because one of the top 10 prospects (e.g. miller, Quinn, or one of the 2 CBs) drop to us....doubtful
I think it's more likely than not that either Miller, Quinn, or Amukamara will be available at #11. The Texans need only 4 offensive players to go in the top 10 to make that happen.

If not, and a QB is available at #11, the Texans could have teams interested in leaping the Vikings at #12 and grabbing a signal caller. Either way, there should be solid value at #11.

Hopefully, Smithiak doesn't screw it up.
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Old 02-21-2011   #5
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Default Re: No value at number 11

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Originally Posted by Lucky View Post
I think it's more likely than not that either Miller, Quinn, or Amukamara will be available at #11. The Texans need only 4 offensive players to go in the top 10 to make that happen.

If not, and a QB is available at #11, the Texans could have teams interested in leaping the Vikings at #12 and grabbing a signal caller. Either way, there should be solid value at #11.

Hopefully, Smithiak doesn't screw it up.
what do you think they should do then if the players you mentioned dont drop down
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Old 02-21-2011   #6
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Default Re: No value at number 11

Quote:
Originally Posted by aussie_texan View Post
what do you think they should do then if the players you mentioned dont drop down
I think my point was that it is unlikely that one of the premier 7 defenders in the draft (Bowers, Peterson, Fairley, Dareus, Miller, Quinn, or Amukamara) won't be there. If not, then one of the top 4 offensive players (Newton, Green, Gabbert, or Julius Jones) will be and could provide trade value. I disagree with your assertion that there is no value at #11.
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Old 02-21-2011   #7
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Default Re: No value at number 11

You can probably count on someone to skyrocket into the top ten based on putting on a freak show at the combine. Cornerbacks in particular elevate themselves when they start putting up sub 4:3 times. Top 20 boards will look different after the combine.
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Old 02-22-2011   #8
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Default Re: No value at number 11

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucky View Post
If not, then one of the top 4 offensive players (Newton, Green, Gabbert, or Julius Jones) will be and could provide trade value. I disagree with your assertion that there is no value at #11.
this is what im saying.

that if they are not there then we trade down.
and by the looks of most mock drafts its unlikely and i know there only mock drafts buts its the only thing we can go by at the moment until at least the combine.

what im sort of getting at is that, outside the top 7 talents on defence there would be no one who is worthy of a 11th pick (on defence). unless someone does really well at the combine.

so at the moment i would think we should trade down and get more picks.
unless we go with an offensive player or one of those top defence players falls to us.

we're arguing the same thing just different manners of explaining it
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Old 02-22-2011   #9
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Default Re: No value at number 11

Chances are that we will look back 5 years from now and see that the best player in this draft was not taken in the 1st round at all (especially if you're not looking at QBs). The top 5 players will not even be taken on the first day. The most overpaid bust, however, will surely be taken in the top ten. Pick 11 will be fine...
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Old 02-22-2011   #10
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Default Re: No value at number 11

If there is no value @ 11, I feel bad for the Steelers and Packers. But I am sure they will find a way to draft someone who can help them win. Even @ 32.
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Old 02-22-2011   #11
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Default Re: No value at number 11

I think there will be some decent talent available for us. The draft is always... ALWAYS on of those "the grass is greener on the other side" feelings. No matter where we're picking, we always have that feeling that all the star players will be out of reach.

There's a handful of DL and OLBs that will be available at #11. It's time for us to step up and make a great selection. Don't get me wrong though, I wouldn't mind a trade down one bit if the FO doesn't think there's a player "worthy" of the 11th pick.
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Old 02-22-2011   #12
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Default Re: No value at number 11

Based on info now avail, I agree #11 does not look good for Houston unless a trade is worked out. I'm thinking JJ may be on his way off roster via FA and Julio Jones would make a nice fit. Only the F.O. knows if they want to keep Jacoby. I could see Pats wanting Julio. Only good thing about this draft as of now, is Texans seem to do fairly well with later rounds.
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Old 02-22-2011   #13
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Default Re: No value at number 11

Quote:
Originally Posted by Super Mario View Post
If there is no value @ 11, I feel bad for the Steelers and Packers. But I am sure they will find a way to draft someone who can help them win. Even @ 32.
The good side of drafting so low is that all the skill position elite players are gone so a team drafting low can take the 3rd-4th best player at a skill position or they can usually take the #1 player at another spot like OG, C, TE, FS, SS, maybe even RB. While other teams are fighting over lesser picks at more popular positions like DE, DT, QB, WR, CB, etc... There's talent to be had.

Also the Combine will push a few players higher in the draft so there will be talent to be had or to used for trade purposes.
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Old 02-23-2011   #14
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Default Re: No value at number 11

The value is that 11 isnt to far for a team to trade down and not get some quality talent along with an extra draft pick or two.

Watch if one of these guys falls to 6 or lower for us to trade up
Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama - 6'3 - 306
Nick Fairley, Auburn, (Jr.), 6-4, 298
Patrick Peterson, DB, LSU - 6'1 - 222

Personally I hope its Dareus.
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Old 02-23-2011   #15
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Default Re: No value at number 11

when it's all said and done, there will be value at 11.

we need to root for the QB prospects to impress the hell out of the teams ahead of us. 3 QBs in the top 10 is very possible and would be very helpful to our cause.
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Old 02-23-2011   #16
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Default Re: No value at number 11

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucky View Post
I think my point was that it is unlikely that one of the premier 7 defenders in the draft (Bowers, Peterson, Fairley, Dareus, Miller, Quinn, or Amukamara) won't be there. If not, then one of the top 4 offensive players (Newton, Green, Gabbert, or Julius Jones) will be and could provide trade value. I disagree with your assertion that there is no value at #11.
Things remain to be seen. i'm still getting a feel for some of these players but i think we might be on the outside looking in. I dont have a lot of faith that,Newton,Gabbert, or j jones will be selected before #11. That means more defensive talent will be off the board.

The combine will solidify info the scouts already know and reveal trends like "rising or falling" to draft niks. Last year about this time guys like Kareem Jackson and Kyle Wilson were considered late 2nd to 3rd round talents. Guys like Taylor Mays were considered top 15 (by some) previous to the combine.
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Old 02-23-2011   #17
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Default Re: No value at number 11

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Originally Posted by powda View Post
Last year about this time guys like Kareem Jackson and Kyle Wilson were considered late 2nd to 3rd round talents.
Jackson & Wilson should have been 2nd or 3rd round picks. I said last year that corners like Wilson and Jackson were being forced into the 1st due to need.

Jones is a physical WCO WR who probably needs to run a good time (sub 4.5) to get into the top 10. Newton and Gabbert are solid QB prospects who are fortunate that there are several teams in the top 10 desperate for a young signal caller. Outside of Dallas, no team in the top 10 is set at QB.

And it's not like any of the top defenders in this draft are wartless. Quinn missed all of last year due to suspension, and has a big medical flag. Miller does not have prototypical 3-4 OLB size. Amukamara has recovery speed questions he must answer.

Let's not dismiss the real possibility that a LT or two won't shoot up draft boards. An average of nearly 2 tackles have gone in the top 10 over the past 5 drafts. Once in the past 11 drafts has a tackle failed to go in the top 10.

It's more likely than not that the Texans will have an opportunity to draft one of these top rated defenders. I would put odds at Amukamara being most likely, then Quinn, with Miller least likely. Right now, I expect the Texans to be able to choose between Amukamara and Quinn.
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Old 02-23-2011   #18
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Default Re: No value at number 11

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucky View Post
Jackson & Wilson should have been 2nd or 3rd round picks. I said last year that corners like Wilson and Jackson were being forced into the 1st due to need.

Jones is a physical WCO WR who probably needs to run a good time (sub 4.5) to get into the top 10. Newton and Gabbert are solid QB prospects who are fortunate that there are several teams in the top 10 desperate for a young signal caller. Outside of Dallas, no team in the top 10 is set at QB.

And it's not like any of the top defenders in this draft are wartless. Quinn missed all of last year due to suspension, and has a big medical flag. Miller does not have prototypical 3-4 OLB size. Amukamara has recovery speed questions he must answer.

Let's not dismiss the real possibility that a LT or two won't shoot up draft boards. An average of nearly 2 tackles have gone in the top 10 over the past 5 drafts. Once in the past 11 drafts has a tackle failed to go in the top 10.

It's more likely than not that the Texans will have an opportunity to draft one of these top rated defenders. I would put odds at Amukamara being most likely, then Quinn, with Miller least likely. Right now, I expect the Texans to be able to choose between Amukamara and Quinn.
Agreed

I dont want Quin (Brain Tumor/Racked up sacks against Dukes of the world.)

Amukamara (no better than a #2 CB, will get alot of illegal contact/PI pentaties)
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Old 02-23-2011   #19
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Default Re: No value at number 11

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucky View Post
Jackson & Wilson should have been 2nd or 3rd round picks. I said last year that corners like Wilson and Jackson were being forced into the 1st due to need.Jones is a physical WCO WR who probably needs to run a good time (sub 4.5) to get into the top 10. Newton and Gabbert are solid QB prospects who are fortunate that there are several teams in the top 10 desperate for a young signal caller. Outside of Dallas, no team in the top 10 is set at QB.

And it's not like any of the top defenders in this draft are wartless. Quinn missed all of last year due to suspension, and has a big medical flag. Miller does not have prototypical 3-4 OLB size. Amukamara has recovery speed questions he must answer.

Let's not dismiss the real possibility that a LT or two won't shoot up draft boards. An average of nearly 2 tackles have gone in the top 10 over the past 5 drafts. Once in the past 11 drafts has a tackle failed to go in the top 10.

It's more likely than not that the Texans will have an opportunity to draft one of these top rated defenders. I would put odds at Amukamara being most likely, then Quinn, with Miller least likely. Right now, I expect the Texans to be able to choose between Amukamara and Quinn.
If there is no Free Agency, need drafting wil worse this year than ever...no matter how much you here GMs (not just Rick) blather on about sticking to our board, BPA, etc.

I am being lazy and not looking up links but much of what I am reading it seems like Prince A. is already "falling" and may not be a Top 10 guy.
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Old 02-24-2011   #20
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Default Re: No value at number 11

Mark Ingram may rocket up as well. Lets not forget what happened with the chargers and Ryan Mathews. Philip Taylor is another guy i expect to make a huge jump.

This may be a scenerio where i hope for the best but expect the worst. (been called a pessimist more then once.)
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