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Old 04-06-2005   #1
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Default Trade up for who, with who, how much?

It's draft day. You're Charlie Casserly. You've absolutely decided to trade up for THE Player that you (CC) know will get us into the playoffs this year and into the Super Bowl repeatedly in years to come. Who is this must-have draftee that you target with your tunnel vision? How far WILL he fall before you must deal with WHO (what team)? What do you have to trade to move up to that place, and hurry up, don't be cheap, the Jags are on the phone line holding with a better offer than you have. Finally, what do the nay sayers warn after Day One is in the books?
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Old 04-06-2005   #2
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First, the goal is not to make the playoffs this next year, but to improve to 9-7. Second, the highest trade up I'd consider is to #8 (Cards) for our #13 + #78 + #151. With the #8 pick I'd take Merriman. If Merriman is not available, I'm looking to trade down.
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Old 04-06-2005   #3
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and that too much to give up this year for Merriman. We need those picks. Merriman isn't that good to me. I think we wait til 13 to see if DJ or Merriman falls or we trade down add depth
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Old 04-06-2005   #4
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I absolutely hate the idea of trading up unless it's for DJ...If he falls to 7 or 8, I say we move up for him...More than likely, we'll see that the few exceptional players this year will be gone quick and realize no one is really worth the 13th pick and move down...
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Old 04-06-2005   #5
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Jevon Kearse fell to #13 and this year's version Merriman does the same. No need to trade up for a guy who can jump over the o-line.
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Old 04-06-2005   #6
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kearse was taken at 16 in 99. And he was alot better than merriman. He ran a 4.43 at indy. I think Casserly may move to 6 to get DJ. He has a hsitory with Reese. If he wants DJ which i think is a huge mistake he might do it. I think If DJ is there he will go to Minn at 7. Personally i think Minn is in deep if they want a WR cause I think Reese is going to threaten to take MW at 6 and force a trade. I just dont see Minn trading out of 7 unless they do it with Casserly to go down and take Clayton or Williamson at 13.

Last edited by FatBoyTim; 04-06-2005 at 09:01 PM.
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Old 04-07-2005   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FatBoyTim
kearse was taken at 16 in 99. And he was alot better than merriman. He ran a 4.43 at indy. I think Casserly may move to 6 to get DJ. He has a hsitory with Reese. If he wants DJ which i think is a huge mistake he might do it. I think If DJ is there he will go to Minn at 7. Personally i think Minn is in deep if they want a WR cause I think Reese is going to threaten to take MW at 6 and force a trade. I just dont see Minn trading out of 7 unless they do it with Casserly to go down and take Clayton or Williamson at 13.
Only way Minesota doesnt draft a WR at #7 is if some one trades up and gets Mike Williams. Which is very possible bc i heard Philly wants to trade all the way to 6 maybe a little higher. I think DJ will be gone at #3 unless they decide to trade down.
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Old 04-07-2005   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Number19
First, the goal is not to make the playoffs this next year, but to improve to 9-7. Second, the highest trade up I'd consider is to #8 (Cards) for our #13 + #78 + #151. With the #8 pick I'd take Merriman. If Merriman is not available, I'm looking to trade down.

oh come on, its every teams goal every year to make the play-offs and win the super bowl, regardless of what the year befores record was or if your an expansion team.
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Old 04-07-2005   #9
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B.O.B., I thought you were crazy when you first started "pimping" Thomas Davis, but once I tried thinking outside the box, TD started to make a lot of since...Can you imagine an ILB with 4.45 speed and that kind of hitting ability? Damn, I would feel sorry for the rest of the AFC South, that's all I can say...
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Old 04-07-2005   #10
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Unfortunately after the Georgia pro day it was unanimous that in the NFL he would be a safety. (Thomas Davis)

So the ILB conversion doesnt look like it will happen.

here was the NFL.com workout summary for him

Davis (6-0, 227) ran his 40s in 4.43 and 4.44. He had a 9-foot-10 long jump and 12 reps. Scouts worked him at safety and at linebacker, and the consensus is that he will remain at safety in the NFL.
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Old 04-07-2005   #11
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I read Brandt's note on Davis too, but I still think he'd make a good ILB here...The main reason scouts were looking at him as a LB was becuase he had "speed concerns", but he ran good 40s, so that talk hushed...I definitely think he could be a darkhorse pick for us at 13 though...
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Old 04-07-2005   #12
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I think the reasoning is if we put him at LB weight like 240 or so that he would lose that speed and that was the reason he would stay at safety in the NFL.
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Old 04-07-2005   #13
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Out of the top 12 teams, who will deal is the question?
Some teams are looking for certain players so they will not deal down too far: Washington come to mind - they need a CB and should get either Rolle or PacMan at 9 - of course, if those 2 are gone, they might deal down to #13 and take CRogers or take him at 9 amd not risk coming up empty. Also, AZ is in a nice spot in that they can wait and see what drops (QB or RB)

And, even if they are willing to deal, how low will they go?
Everyone is talking about all the top teams trying to trade down - the problem is that most of those teams probably have a "cutoff" spot - for example, if Miami wants a RB, then dropping below 7 is risky (assuming TB takes a RB and AZ will also - so if another team makes a surprise pick miami would be left dry at RB)

Plus, how much will it cost?

The players with the most potential immediate impact are the WRs.
Edwards won't get past #4 which is worth 1800 points.
MWilliams probably won't get past #7 which is worth 1500 points.
It would cost our 1st through 3rd picks to get Edwards: 13 1150, 47 430, 73 225; and our first plus our 2nd (or both 3rds) to get MW at #7.

It looks like it would cost too much to move up and get these guys.

Players that would look really good on our team in TWO years:
the WRs/Jones/Rolle/DJ/Merriman

I think Tennesee (many holes to fill) and Detroit (same) might be willing to deal down and I think we could get a stud at 10(1300 points) or 6(1600 points).
Tennesee deal: #13, #47(or #73 and #78), and #173 for #6 - MWilliams
Detroit deal: #13 and #78 for #10 - - at 10 we get either DJ or Merriman


For those who want to talk about the value of draft picks:
Draft Pick Value Chart
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Other
1 3000 33 580 65 265 97 112 129 43 161 28 193 15.2 225 2.9
2 2600 34 560 66 260 98 108 130 42 162 27.6 194 14.8 226 2.8
3 2200 35 550 67 255 99 104 131 41 163 27.2 195 14.4 227 2.7
4 1800 36 540 68 250 100 100 132 40 164 26.8 196 14 228 2.6
5 1700 37 530 69 245 101 96 133 39.5 165 26.4 197 13.6 229 2.5
6 1600 38 520 70 240 102 92 134 39 166 26 198 13.2 230 2.4
7 1500 39 510 71 235 103 88 135 38.5 167 25.6 199 12.8 231 2.3
8 1400 40 500 72 230 104 86 136 38 168 25.2 200 12.4 232 2.2
9 1350 41 490 73 225 105 84 137 37.5 169 24.8 201 12 233 2.1
10 1300 42 480 74 220 106 82 138 37 170 24.4 202 11.6 234 2
11 1250 43 470 75 215 107 80 139 36.5 171 24 203 11.2 235 1.9
12 1200 44 460 76 210 108 78 140 36 172 23.6 204 10.8 236 1.8
13 1150 45 450 77 205 109 76 141 35.5 173 23.2 205 10.4 237 1.7
14 1100 46 440 78 200 110 74 142 35 174 22.8 206 10 238 1.6
15 1050 47 430 79 195 111 72 143 34.5 175 22.4 207 9.6 239 1.5
16 1000 48 420 80 190 112 70 144 34 176 22 208 9.2 240 1.4
17 950 49 410 81 185 113 68 145 33.5 177 21.6 209 8.8 241 1.3
18 900 50 400 82 180 114 66 146 33 178 21.2 210 8.4 242 1.2
19 875 51 390 83 175 115 64 147 32.6 179 20.8 211 8 243 1.1
20 850 52 380 84 170 116 62 148 32.2 180 20.4 212 7.6 244 1
21 800 53 370 85 165 117 60 149 31.8 181 20 213 7.2 245 0.95
22 780 54 360 86 160 118 58 150 31.4 182 19.6 214 6.8 246 0.9
23 760 55 350 87 155 119 56 151 31 183 19.2 215 6.4 247 0.85
24 740 56 340 88 150 120 54 152 31.8 184 18.8 216 6 248 0.8
25 720 57 330 89 145 121 52 153 31.2 185 18.4 217 5.6 249 0.75
26 700 58 320 90 140 122 50 154 30.8 186 18 218 5.2 250 0.7
27 680 59 310 91 136 123 49 155 30.4 187 17.6 219 4.8 251 0.65
28 660 60 300 92 132 124 48 156 30 188 17.2 220 4.4 252 0.6
29 640 61 292 93 128 125 47 157 29.6 189 16.8 221 4 253 0.55
30 620 62 284 94 124 126 46 158 29.2 190 16.4 222 3.6 254 0.5
31 600 63 276 95 120 127 45 159 28.8 191 16 223 3.3 255 0.45
32 590 64 270 96 116 128 44 160 28.4 192 15.6 224 3 256 0.4

Texans Picks
Pick# Point Value
13 1150
47 430
73 225
78 200
108 78
142 35
173 23.2
204 10.8
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Old 04-07-2005   #14
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finally somebody who knows what there talking about good job xman
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Old 04-08-2005   #15
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we need to stay put hope someone falls and when they dont trade down and addd depth. Trading up will hurt us
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Old 04-08-2005   #16
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Every draft is different. So a chart really does you no good in the real draft world.
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Old 04-08-2005   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by royce1054
we need to stay put hope someone falls and when they dont trade down and addd depth. Trading up will hurt us
Agreed...The only player worth trading up for is DJ, but he won't fall, so instead of "settling" for someone we really don't want, we should trade down and pick up an extra pick or two...It has been well documented that the talent in this draft is pretty much evenly dispersed from the 15th pick until into the 3rd round, so trading down is very enticing IMO...
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Old 04-08-2005   #18
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wow me and D-rek agree on something
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Old 04-08-2005   #19
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It seems like most of the mocks agree on the top 12 (figuring almost every mock has these 12 guys in its top 15). Of course, each usually picks a sleeper to go higher - usually CRogers, Spears or Barron.

1. Mike Williams
2. Braylon Edwards
3. Ronnie Brown
4. Cedric Benson
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Alex Smith
7. Antrell Rolle
8. Carnell Williams
9. Derrick Johnson
10. Shawne Merriman
11. "Pac Man" Jones
12. TWilliamson

So, if we sit still, we just have to take the BPA that drops - which will be a quality player. The only issue will be whether it is a "need" position. For instance, GBN has us taking CWilliams - too good a talent to pass up but not a need. I think that might be an accurate projection if we stay at 13 because the teams picking just ahead of us need D, WRs and CBs, not RBs.

If the top 12 go as forecasted (which usually doesn't happen), then I hope we have a player in mind like Dunta (CRogers might be the guy), who didn't slide up the charts last year until about 2 weeks before the draft.

Trading up a little (not a lot, just up to 10 to fill a need with Merriman or DJ would be good), or trading down (as long as we get good value, which we should be able to get with one of those top 12 guys, then a couple of extra picks in the first few rounds would help) can help us as long as we make a decent deal. If no decent deal, then we take BAP, even if it is Benson or CWilliams.
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Old 04-08-2005   #20
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If we want DJ or Merriman, we are going to have to leap frog Dallas San Diego and Detroit. I would give a few picks to do that.
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