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Old 12-25-2010   #1
ToxicButt
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Default Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

Looking at the parts: good QB, elite WR1, very good RB, good depth at the rest of the skill positions. OL knows the ZBS. This team has the talent base for an above average offense. Top 5 to top 10, just looking at the parts.

Looking at the performance:
- last year, we were an elite passing unit, perhaps out of necessity as we couldnt run the ball.
- This year, our running game is strong. However, we do not put up numbers in the first half, but run up massive numbers in the 2nd half. What does this tell us?

Frankly I don't know. Does anyone have any data or analysis to tell us what this means?

My working theory is this:

1. In the first half:

- teams are running their normal defensive game plan. Attacking when called for, blitzing when they normally do.

- Defenses get more aggressive against the Texans as they build early leads. IMO, Defensive coordinators dial up more aggressive playcalling in the first half because they're ahead and have strong prospects of creating an insurmountable lead.

- There's a lethargy and negativity that spreads from the Defensive stench to the offense. Failure of the Defense begets failure by the offense. It's a vibe. It's a reek. It's an intangible that creates an obstacle that must be overcome. The Offense then presses and tries too hard.

- Theory: Our failures in the first half are significant because we're running against normal defensive strategy, at least at the outset. In short, our offense isn't as good as perhaps the overall stats say, or as folks might think.

2. In the second half:

- DC's are now playing the clock because of the huge leads. They dial back the pressure to start the 3rd quarter. In Q4, the prevent defense continues but late in the game, we see some situational blitzing.

- The defenses relax, lose aggression, and human nature sets in.

- IMO, it's now easier to score because the Texans have a sense of urgency and the Defenses, for all these reasons, are poised to let the Texans score at the expense of eating clock.

- It still takes talent, ability and execution to score in the second half, but I'd argue that it's a distorted measure of offensive efficiency, and boosts our stats artificially.

-----------------------------

In evaluating this team, it's clear that the Defensive scheme and personnel require major overhaul and improvement. There's no downside to scrapping what we have and building from the ground up.

As to the offense, this is cited most frequently as the reason to keep Kubiak. I think it's overstated because the offense is overrated by those who think it's "elite" or "explosive". And because in comparison to the putrid defense, anything that's above average looks great.

I don't think the offenes is elite. I don't think it is outperforming its talent base. The offense has plus talent and is above average over all. Not dominant. Not effective when the opposing defenses are attacking.

-------------------------------

Does anyone have informatio to share about the disparity in offensive performance in the two halves, and what it means about the overall quality of the offense.
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Old 12-25-2010   #2
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

I agree with all that. Kubiak's teams have always gotten stats,
but struggled to get wins. The only difference with this year is,
the fans want to "lead the league in wins."
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Old 12-25-2010   #3
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

You have to know HOW to use talent. Whether you subsribe to "scripting" or not, you have to have a good AND effective basic game plan........from the beginning. Kubiak has not shown me a talent to compile one........or to "adjust" it on the fly in a timely fashion...............that is, BEFORE the game is essentially all but packed in.
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Old 12-25-2010   #4
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

Cloak - if that's the case, our offense is not a reason to keep kubiak. Rather, it may be a reason to dump him if we are underperforming our talent.

I'm just tired of sports radio and news papers saying we have this elite offense, when the numbers are overstated and my naked eyes don't see an elite offensive unit.
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Old 12-25-2010   #5
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

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Originally Posted by ToxicButt View Post
2. In the second half:

- DC's are now playing the clock because of the huge leads. They dial back the pressure to start the 3rd quarter. In Q4, the prevent defense continues but late in the game, we see some situational blitzing.
This is dead wrong. As an example, the Colts are built to get a lead then pass rush like crazy because the other team has points to make up. Teams have not been dialing back or going into shells against the Texans in the 2nd half this year. Quite the opposite they know the Texans are capable of very dangerous comebacks on what would otherwise be great leads so very little prevent defense has been played against them. Prevent D when HWWNBN was here was an option. Prevent D with Schaub and AJ is seppuku. Teams know better than to try it.
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Old 12-25-2010   #6
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Cool Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

Butt,

I've also wondered the same thing.

If that's not the case, I've also wondered if for whatever reason, Schaub thrives under the no huddle/hurry up offense which we run in most second halves.

Whereas we start with scripted plays, huddle, take time to get to the line. Schaub is out of rhythm, timing is off, etc. Once he gets is going to boom, boom, boom (play, play, play) - we put together 99 yard drives.
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Old 12-25-2010   #7
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Quite the opposite they know the Texans are capable of very dangerous comebacks on what would otherwise be great leads so very little prevent defense has been played against them.
I don't know if that's true or not. I do know that Schaub had an exorbitant amount of time to throw during the 2nd half of the Ravens game. Also, there has been a huge difference in the passing game between the 1st and 2nd halves, with Schaub's passer rating being 30 points higher in the latter.

The question is, is Kubiak indispensable to the Texans offense success? I don't see that. A good WCO coordinator should have similar success with talent like Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, Matt Schaub, and a (hopefully) healthy Owen Daniels. Life as we know it on offense should go on without Kubiak. It could possibly even get better.
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Old 12-25-2010   #8
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

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Originally Posted by Lucky View Post
I don't know if that's true or not.
Have you seen a lot of prevent, soft give them yardage D? I haven't.

Quote:
I do know that Schaub had an exorbitant amount of time to throw in the during the 2nd half of the Ravens game. Also, there has been a huge difference in the passing game between the 1st and 2nd halves, with Schaub's passer rating being 30 points higher in the latter.
Schaub has had excellent protection much of this season with huge amounts of time and then the random cranial flatulence blown assignment where he gets none. The Ravens didn't blitz a ton in the 2nd half but of course that means more folks were in coverage. Seems to me Schaub plays much better up tempo. I don't think he is wired to hand the ball off 40 times a game. This year they get behind and then desperation leads to bumping the tempo.

Quote:
The question is, is Kubiak indispensable to the Texans offense success? I don't see that. A good WCO coordinator should have similar success with talent like Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, Matt Schaub, and a (hopefully) healthy Owen Daniels. Life as we know it on offense should go on without Kubiak. It could possibly even get better.
Of course he isn't indispensable. A name nobody has mentioned is Mike Holmgren. He might be the kind of guy who could polish what the Texans have. I'd be more inclined to a coach who will use a talented QB/WR/TE/receiving RB rather than one with a philosophy of running if possible.
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Old 12-25-2010   #9
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

The Ravens game spoke volumes to me.

Kubes called the plays in the 1st half. The offense =suck

Schaub runs the 2 min drill in the 2nd half. The offense makes a great comeback and game goes into OT. Schaub runs offense = Great.

Kubes runs offense in OT and calls for pass out of his own end zone on 1st and 2nd downs = GW pick 6=Fail.
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Old 12-25-2010   #10
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
This is dead wrong. As an example, the Colts are built to get a lead then pass rush like crazy because the other team has points to make up. Teams have not been dialing back or going into shells against the Texans in the 2nd half this year. Quite the opposite they know the Texans are capable of very dangerous comebacks on what would otherwise be great leads so very little prevent defense has been played against them. Prevent D when HWWNBN was here was an option. Prevent D with Schaub and AJ is seppuku. Teams know better than to try it.

I guess I generalized because I too see Schaub having tons more time to make productive plays in the 2nd half, and chalked that up to more "bend dont' break" defense.

So what do you attribute the differential to?

Also, are you of the mind that we are an elite offense?

That's the central question to me. I don't think you can call us elite if we do nothing for the first half.
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Old 12-25-2010   #11
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
The Ravens game spoke volumes to me.

Kubes called the plays in the 1st half. The offense =suck

Schaub runs the 2 min drill in the 2nd half. The offense makes a great comeback and game goes into OT. Schaub runs offense = Great.

Kubes runs offense in OT and calls for pass out of his own end zone on 1st and 2nd downs = GW pick 6=Fail.
the ravens game was one in which i thought i saw a lot of 3 man rushes in the 2nd half, thereby enabling us to move the chains but requiring us to eat clock.

SteelB - is it your opinion then that kubiak's offense succeeds despite him, not because of him?
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Old 12-25-2010   #12
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

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Originally Posted by ToxicButt View Post
the ravens game was one in which i thought i saw a lot of 3 man rushes in the 2nd half, thereby enabling us to move the chains but requiring us to eat clock.

SteelB - is it your opinion then that kubiak's offense succeeds despite him, not because of him?
His offense works fine when Schaub is allowed to call the plays.

When Kubes calls the plays they usually fail.

Kubes offense is fine. But any time Kubes has to think on his feet (Replay challenges,Timeout useage,playcalling in the red zone etc...) the Texans are screwed.
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Old 12-25-2010   #13
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

We have one of the better offenses in the NFL.

Now is that scheme or personnel?

Our elite offensive weapons are AJ, lets say Leach because he is so key in the run game and lets say Foster too, although I hesitate because of how good Slaton looked in the same offense which makes me think we can plug and play backs potentially.

No elite Oline, no elite QB, borderline elite TE if Daniels is ever fit again.

Makes me think scheme is important here.

Kubiak also fixed our third down and goal line issues of the last few years.

I think our scheme is as good as anyones.
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Old 12-25-2010   #14
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

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Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan View Post
We have one of the better offenses in the NFL.

Now is that scheme or personnel?

Our elite offensive weapons are AJ, lets say Leach because he is so key in the run game and lets say Foster too, although I hesitate because of how good Slaton looked in the same offense which makes me think we can plug and play backs potentially.

No elite Oline, no elite QB, borderline elite TE if Daniels is ever fit again.

Makes me think scheme is important here.


Kubiak also fixed our third down and goal line issues of the last few years.

I think our scheme is as good as anyones.

Scheme?................I don't think so. It's the presence of Foster, that's factored in on every count.
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Old 12-25-2010   #15
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

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Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
Scheme?................I don't think so. It's the presence of Foster, that's factored in on every count.
Foster's important, but I'm a little reluctant to say that a unit that's been in the top 5 in yardage 3 years in a row, and the top 11 in scoring the past two years (with the final rankings for '10 yet to follow) is simply a matter of one guy - especially when that guy's only started one game prior to this year.

It's definitely an above average system/scheme. It's not elite, and it's not something that's necessarily going to fall apart if Kubes ends up gone. To me, that's part of getting the right guy in place if Kubes is out after this year. Maintain the strength - heck, it's not elite, just good, so it could be even made better. Fix the weaknesses, but don't forget about the strengths in the process.
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Old 12-25-2010   #16
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

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This is dead wrong. As an example, the Colts are built to get a lead then pass rush like crazy because the other team has points to make up. Teams have not been dialing back or going into shells against the Texans in the 2nd half this year. Quite the opposite they know the Texans are capable of very dangerous comebacks on what would otherwise be great leads so very little prevent defense has been played against them. Prevent D when HWWNBN was here was an option. Prevent D with Schaub and AJ is seppuku. Teams know better than to try it.
I disagree. Teams do go into conservative mode.

And while the Colts are built to play with leads, they do not dial up pressure with confusing coverages on the back end.

They play pretty simple on the back end and depend on Freeney and Mathis to get a large majority of their pressure. That was a bad example.

If you look at other teams that we have come back on they have done the same things....

Washington was gashing us through the air to build their lead and dialing up blitzes from the SS....

When they got a good lead, the long pass attempts didn't happen as much and they weren't as aggressive on defense. They were playing the clock and playing to conserve a lead.

It's not a coincidence that the Texans have been able to make so many comebacks. That's where I agree with you at. Playing prevent defense against us is like harakiri....

And that is why we have been able to make comebacks like that.

Even if you look at the Washington game, we could have very easily lost that one had Kubiak not called that timeout or had Pollard not blocked that field goal...

I really think the five wins they have are deceiving. We are really a worse football team than that.

All of the close losses are deceiving. We are actually worse than that too...
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Old 12-25-2010   #17
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

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I guess I generalized because I too see Schaub having tons more time to make productive plays in the 2nd half, and chalked that up to more "bend dont' break" defense.

So what do you attribute the differential to?

Also, are you of the mind that we are an elite offense?

That's the central question to me. I don't think you can call us elite if we do nothing for the first half.
Elite offense & bad gameplanning. Teams don't start playing bend dont break at the beginning of the third quarter unless they're up by 50. If anything, it says a lot about the talent of the offense that they're so effective when the defense knows exactly what's coming and still can't stop it.

Two big things have contributed to the slow starts imo: defenses have caught on to the bootlegs and play-action stuff that worked last year, ball control early doesn't work well with a bad defense and bad special teams because field position advantages get quickly wiped out.

I think it's also fair to wonder if Kubiak & Dennison aren't too cute for their own good early, but the terrible defense really limits what you can do. A bad gameplan, bad playcall, an early drop, an early interception, etc. and all of a sudden you're down two touchdowns in the second quarter.
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Old 12-25-2010   #18
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

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Scheme?................I don't think so. It's the presence of Foster, that's factored in on every count.
Look at Slaton's big season, if we had a short yardage back worth a darn that year we would of put up Foster like numbers.

Can I refer you to Denver's plug and play running attack?
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Old 12-25-2010   #19
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

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Originally Posted by ToxicButt View Post
So what do you attribute the differential to?

Also, are you of the mind that we are an elite offense?

That's the central question to me. I don't think you can call us elite if we do nothing for the first half.
On the first question look at the last game for an example, what 6-8 drops in the 1st half? It's freaky. For whatever reason they find ways to fail in the 1st half. People can laugh at Kubiak for not knowing the answer but to me that was a very honest and correct answer. It's like they find a new way to be slow each 1st half whether it be critical penalty, broken pass protection, dropped ball, etc.

As for the 2nd question no I would not call them elite. I would call them explosive/dangerous.

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Originally Posted by Rey View Post
I disagree. Teams do go into conservative mode.
Well we'll just agree to disagree then. I have not at all seen teams giving up 12 yards as a concession to eat up the clock. They have been opposing us. Not claiming the O is perfect at all, just disagree with the idea we are being given 2nd halves. No way. We haven't gotten enough points, but the ones they have put up were earned.
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Old 12-26-2010   #20
datchapin
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Default Re: Kubiak Offense - how good is it really?

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Of course he isn't indispensable. A name nobody has mentioned is Mike Holmgren. He might be the kind of guy who could polish what the Texans have. I'd be more inclined to a coach who will use a talented QB/WR/TE/receiving RB rather than one with a philosophy of running if possible.
I think nobody Mentions Holmgren because he's the GM/supervisor of operations up in Cleveland.
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