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Old 12-03-2010   #1
Jackie Chiles
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Default The next 5 year plan

Lets assume, for the purpose of this exercise that Kubiak is fired at the end of the year. Now without getting into specifics with regard to all the different directions we could take as far as the head coach and his staff, what kind of success does the team need to have within a 5 year period for you to be happy with where we are at?

A quick history lesson:

Dom Capers: 18 wins, 46 losses .281 winning % No playoff appearances no playoff wins: We pretty much sucked.

Gary Kubiak: currently 35 wins, 39 losses .473 winning % No playoff appearances no playoff wins: Actually quite an improvement over Dom but it doesn't really feel like it and even if it did, its still not good enough.

For reference, here are a couple guys at the high end of the scale that we could hope to aspire to but would have a very difficult time approaching their level of success:

Andy Reid: 115 wins, 70 losses .622 winning % 8 playoff appearances including a Super Bowl, 10 playoff wins and 8 losses.

And the gold standard;

Bill Belichick(with NE): 121 wins, 50 losses .708 winning % 7 playoff appearances, 3 Super Bowl wins and 1 loss, 14 playoff wins and 4 losses.

We would have to hit the coaching lottery to have similar success so its not impossible but shouldn't be expected. So what can we expect? I'll throw out another case that has been mentioned on these boards for quite some time and its a guy I think would be the absolute best case scenario:

Mike Smith: 29 wins, 14 losses .674 winning % 1 playoff appearance, 0 playoff wins.

Probably too much to hope for but not impossible. I do, however, have a track record that I think we could be able to reproduce. That is the level of success that Mike Holmgren had while he was in Seattle.

Mike Holmgren, Seattle: 86 wins, 74 losses .541 winning % 6 playoff appearances, 1 Super Bowl loss, 4 playoff wins, 6 losses

Why Holmgren you ask? It all starts with the QB. Schaub has reminded me of Hasselbeck since the day he got here. In GB with Favre Holmgren posted a .670 winning %. He couldn't repeat that without old faithful but I think Schaub compares favorably to what he was working with in Seattle. The high end coaches I listed for reference also had/have some all-time greats at QB and Matt Ryan could be one before its all said and done. Therefore:

Mystery Texans future coach: about a 55% winning percentage in the regular season with a couple playoff appearances and at least 1 win within the first 5 years. I think I could live with that, what would it take for you? Am I being too lenient or are my expectations too lofty for an organization that hasn't proved anything so far?
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Old 12-03-2010   #2
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

I want to see a Houston NFL team win a Super Bowl before I head to the great starship in the sky.

So, a high winning percentage in the playoffs but no Super Bowl win is like getting a piece of cake with no icing. The cake is nice, haven't had any in years, but I'd like a little icing as well.
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Old 12-03-2010   #3
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

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Originally Posted by Jackie Chiles View Post
...what kind of success does the team need to have within a 5 year period for you to be happy with where we are at?

Ummm... the whole point of all this moaning is that 5 years is too much time to make any organization win the Super Bowl. So with that being the precedent, I think any new coach(es) should be on maximum 2 year contracts otherwise we'll end with everyone's panties in a twist again. Instead of being Denver East, we'll be more like Dallas South, but without all that worrisome playoff business. Hell, maybe we could even recruit TO, I think we're the only team he hasn't played for now?

PS - Throw out Andy Reid and Holmgren. They script their plays
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Old 12-03-2010   #4
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

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Originally Posted by Surreal McCoy View Post
Ummm... the whole point of all this moaning is that 5 years is too much time to make any organization win the Super Bowl. So with that being the precedent, I think any new coach(es) should be on maximum 2 year contracts otherwise we'll end with everyone's panties in a twist again. Instead of being Denver East, we'll be more like Dallas South, but without all that worrisome playoff business. Hell, maybe we could even recruit TO, I think we're the only team he hasn't played for now?

PS - Throw out Andy Reid and Holmgren. They script their plays
Plenty of other threads to clutter with your sarcasm hoss.
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Old 12-03-2010   #5
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

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Originally Posted by Jackie Chiles View Post
Plenty of other threads to clutter with your sarcasm hoss.
Forgot. Toe the party line around here or else. My apologies.
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Old 12-03-2010   #6
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

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Originally Posted by Surreal McCoy View Post
Forgot. Toe the party line around here or else. My apologies.
Not really sure what you think my post is about, I want Kubiak gone and I'm trying to envision what level of success the next head coach needs to achieve for me to feel good about the Texans.
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Old 12-03-2010   #7
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

Okay so, Capers led our team to shit, Kubiak led us to being respectable and within a few plays each year (literally) of making the playoffs/winning the division. The next staff needs to shore up our shortcomings, change the culture, and get at least 10 wins a year. Once in the playoffs , we'll judge then. If we repeatedly get into the playoffs and get bounced every year in the same fashion, then we'll have to get someone else to push us over the next hill to the Super Bowl.

If we're gonna be good, let's be good. If we're gonna suck, let's suck. It kills me every year over the last few years that a few plays caused this team to go 8-8 or 9-7 instead of 11-5, or even 12-4.
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Old 12-03-2010   #8
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

The only way to win the Superbowl is to be a playoff team, period. We need to get to the playoffs, first.

While I would love to have a team win the superbowl, I would certainly settle for a perennial contender like the Stros of the 90s.
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Old 12-03-2010   #9
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

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Originally Posted by TheMatrix31 View Post
Okay so, Capers led our team to shit, Kubiak led us to being respectable and within a few plays each year (literally) of making the playoffs/winning the division. The next staff needs to shore up our shortcomings, change the culture, and get at least 10 wins a year. Once in the playoffs , we'll judge then. If we repeatedly get into the playoffs and get bounced every year in the same fashion, then we'll have to get someone else to push us over the next hill to the Super Bowl.

If we're gonna be good, let's be good. If we're gonna suck, let's suck. It kills me every year over the last few years that a few plays caused this team to go 8-8 or 9-7 instead of 11-5, or even 12-4.
Was it really Capers? Or was it Casserly's picks/trades/free agents that caused the debacle?
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Old 12-03-2010   #10
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

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Originally Posted by 97roc View Post
Was it really Capers? Or was it Casserly's picks/trades/free agents that caused the debacle?
All the above. They were both playing above what should be their pay grade. Peter principal at its finest.
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Old 12-03-2010   #11
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

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Originally Posted by 97roc View Post
Was it really Capers? Or was it Casserly's picks/trades/free agents that caused the debacle?
Everything.
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Old 12-04-2010   #12
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

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Originally Posted by Thorn View Post
I want to see a Houston NFL team win a Super Bowl before I head to the great starship in the sky.

So, a high winning percentage in the playoffs but no Super Bowl win is like getting a piece of cake with no icing. The cake is nice, haven't had any in years, but I'd like a little icing as well.
I'm with you Thorn. I too getting up there as well. (Not dirty but old)
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Old 12-04-2010   #13
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

U forgot one and he wants to come here according to NFL network

Bill Cower

W-149
L-90
W%-62.3
Superbowl -1
conference championships 2
division championships 9

BIG step up from Kubes a proven coach that wants to come here ? why not fire kubes yesterday and grab him
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Old 12-04-2010   #14
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

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Originally Posted by Thorn View Post
I want to see a Houston NFL team win a Super Bowl before I head to the great starship in the sky.

So, a high winning percentage in the playoffs but no Super Bowl win is like getting a piece of cake with no icing. The cake is nice, haven't had any in years, but I'd like a little icing as well.
I'll take the cake any day. Icing is just that, icing
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Old 12-04-2010   #15
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

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Originally Posted by Jackie Chiles View Post
Lets assume, for the purpose of this exercise that Kubiak is fired at the end of the year. Now without getting into specifics with regard to all the different directions we could take as far as the head coach and his staff, what kind of success does the team need to have within a 5 year period for you to be happy with where we are at?

A quick history lesson:

Dom Capers: 18 wins, 46 losses .281 winning % No playoff appearances no playoff wins: We pretty much sucked.

Gary Kubiak: currently 35 wins, 39 losses .473 winning % No playoff appearances no playoff wins: Actually quite an improvement over Dom but it doesn't really feel like it and even if it did, its still not good enough.

For reference, here are a couple guys at the high end of the scale that we could hope to aspire to but would have a very difficult time approaching their level of success:

Andy Reid: 115 wins, 70 losses .622 winning % 8 playoff appearances including a Super Bowl, 10 playoff wins and 8 losses.

And the gold standard;

Bill Belichick(with NE): 121 wins, 50 losses .708 winning % 7 playoff appearances, 3 Super Bowl wins and 1 loss, 14 playoff wins and 4 losses.

We would have to hit the coaching lottery to have similar success so its not impossible but shouldn't be expected. So what can we expect? I'll throw out another case that has been mentioned on these boards for quite some time and its a guy I think would be the absolute best case scenario:

Mike Smith: 29 wins, 14 losses .674 winning % 1 playoff appearance, 0 playoff wins.

Probably too much to hope for but not impossible. I do, however, have a track record that I think we could be able to reproduce. That is the level of success that Mike Holmgren had while he was in Seattle.

Mike Holmgren, Seattle: 86 wins, 74 losses .541 winning % 6 playoff appearances, 1 Super Bowl loss, 4 playoff wins, 6 losses

Why Holmgren you ask? It all starts with the QB. Schaub has reminded me of Hasselbeck since the day he got here. In GB with Favre Holmgren posted a .670 winning %. He couldn't repeat that without old faithful but I think Schaub compares favorably to what he was working with in Seattle. The high end coaches I listed for reference also had/have some all-time greats at QB and Matt Ryan could be one before its all said and done. Therefore:

Mystery Texans future coach: about a 55% winning percentage in the regular season with a couple playoff appearances and at least 1 win within the first 5 years. I think I could live with that, what would it take for you? Am I being too lenient or are my expectations too lofty for an organization that hasn't proved anything so far?
I am not trying to be a smartass here at all. But for some reason when I read the last paragraph of your post the name Brian Billick came to mind. I personally never liked him as a coach and do not want him here, so no idea why his name came to mind. But since the name popped in my head, I went and checked and he has a career winning percentage of .556, his career playoff record is 5-3, and he has won a Super Bowl. Like I said, not trying to be a smartass. Whether Kubiak stays or goes or whatever, McNair needs to realize the time is now, our next coach needs to be a proven leader and a proven winner. I have no idea why I even posted this, but I have been up since 4 unable to sleep, so maybe I am a little delirious....
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Old 12-04-2010   #16
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

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I am not trying to be a smartass here at all. But for some reason when I read the last paragraph of your post the name Brian Billick came to mind. I personally never liked him as a coach and do not want him here, so no idea why his name came to mind. But since the name popped in my head, I went and checked and he has a career winning percentage of .556, his career playoff record is 5-3, and he has won a Super Bowl. Like I said, not trying to be a smartass. Whether Kubiak stays or goes or whatever, McNair needs to realize the time is now, our next coach needs to be a proven leader and a proven winner. I have no idea why I even posted this, but I have been up since 4 unable to sleep, so maybe I am a little delirious....
Even though I posted specific coach's records I'm not lobbying for them to become the coach and if they did I certainly wouldn't expect the exact winning percentage they put up previously. I don't expect Mike Holmgren to be our next head coach, I want our next head coach to have similar success to what Holmgren had while he was in Seattle. As far as Billick, I don't really want him to be our next HC but if our next HC could do for us what Billick did in Baltimore I would be very pleased.
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Old 12-04-2010   #17
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

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Was it really Capers? Or was it Casserly's picks/trades/free agents that caused the debacle?
Both. Capers most definitely was part of the carnal assault on the pooch. He was a defensive guru who did little to nothing with the D. Look at how Green Bay plays when he actually calls the D v. how we played under Fangio. Instead of sticking to what he knew he stuck his nose into the O that he didn't know. Totally bass akwards HC.
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Old 12-04-2010   #18
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

How many years has Jack del rio had John FOX i think kubes stays IMO depending on how these last games pan out
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Old 12-04-2010   #19
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

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Forgot. Toe the party line around here or else. My apologies.
Your posts are bad.

Sincerely,

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Old 12-05-2010   #20
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Default Re: The next 5 year plan

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How many years has Jack del rio had John FOX i think kubes stays IMO depending on how these last games pan out
This is Del Rio's 8th season, Fox's 9th season. Funny thing is both Fox and Del Rio have finished a season above .500 three times each. Unless we get totally embarassed in the remaining games, I do not see McNair making a change in head coach. Just my opinion.
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