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Old 10-13-2010   #1
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Default KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

That's right fans, time to throw out some useless stats again. I know stats are useless, but it makes for good thread fodder.

All in all, the stats say these two teams match up well. I guess we'll all find out Sunday. I'm thinking the Houston players and coachs will pull this one out and we'll be 4-2 going into the bye week. I predict the following standings for the AFC South after this coming weekend.

4-2 Texans
4-2 Colts, they play Washington (Sunday night game)
4-2 Titans, Titans and Jags play each other (Monday night game)
3-3 Jags

KC mediocre at scoring against a bad Houston scoring defense
KC good at rushing against a good rushing Houston defense
KC bad at passing against a HORRIBLE Houston passing defense

Houston good at scoring against a very good KC scoring Defense
Houston (sometimes) very good at rushing against a very good KC defense
Houston mediocre (sometimes great) at passing against a bad KC passing offense

Houston Offense:
9th on scoring
5th rushing
14th passing

KC Defense
3rd against scoring
6th against rushing
25th against passing


KC Offense
19th on scoring
3rd rushing
27th passing

Houston Defense
29th against scoring
5th against rushing
LAST against passing
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Old 10-13-2010   #2
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

I think the Texans will win this one by ten points. THeir offense is terrible outside their running game. Jamal Charles will most likely have some big plays though.

Their defense is very good. Hopefully we can run the ball really well against them and work the play action.
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Old 10-13-2010   #3
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

What makes the status "useless" is the small sample size of having only played against 5 DIFFERENT opponents so far, and that injuries always change everything. If everyone were healthy all season on both teams and we had played against all the same teams, I'd put a LOT more faith in the stats.
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Old 10-13-2010   #4
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

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Originally Posted by Texecutioner View Post
I think the Texans will win this one by ten points. THeir offense is terrible outside their running game. Jamal Charles will most likely have some big plays though.

Their defense is very good. Hopefully we can run the ball really well against them and work the play action.
That's what I thought about facing the Giants.

Running and play-action works a LOT better when AJ can run like the wind....or your opponent's coaches are stupid.
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Old 10-13-2010   #5
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

One thing you should know, our passing D is a lot better than the total yardage stats indicate.

We're 10th in YPA against and 4th in opponent's completion percentage. We've only allowed 4 TD passes and the opposing QB rating is just 75.9.

We've given up a couple of big plays due to our rookie safeties making mistakes, but we have a very young, athletic, smart secondary and our pass rush has been good. Not great, but good. Tamba Hali absolutely raped Ryan Diem in Indianapolis last week.

I think I'm most interested to see whether or not you can run against us - our run D has been very good - and whether our passing game can get it in gear against your obviously horrible secondary. We have talented receivers and a talented young TE, the QB just needs to get it going.
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Old 10-13-2010   #6
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

Quote:
Originally Posted by GoChiefs View Post
One thing you should know, our passing D is a lot better than the total yardage stats indicate.

We're 10th in YPA against and 4th in opponent's completion percentage. We've only allowed 4 TD passes and the opposing QB rating is just 75.9.

We've given up a couple of big plays due to our rookie safeties making mistakes, but we have a very young, athletic, smart secondary and our pass rush has been good. Not great, but good. Tamba Hali absolutely raped Ryan Diem in Indianapolis last week.

I think I'm most interested to see whether or not you can run against us - our run D has been very good - and whether our passing game can get it in gear against your obviously horrible secondary. We have talented receivers and a talented young TE, the QB just needs to get it going.
What would it take to have him put it on hold for a week?
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Old 10-13-2010   #7
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

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Originally Posted by GoChiefs View Post
One thing you should know, our passing D is a lot better than the total yardage stats indicate.
I think everyone knows that stats are conversation points and nothing else. They do show a trend in how a team plays, but that is usually more trustworthy after more than just five games. Still, our two teams seem to match up well. What that means is exactly nothing. Which ever team plays like they really want the game will win. I'm thinking our Jeckle and Hyde team will pull out a win coming off an embarasing loss against the Giants.

But again, who knows? Most of us here have learned that putting money (either way) on the Texans is a sure way to loose that money since they are completly unpredictable from week to week.
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Old 10-13-2010   #8
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

I think we'll match up well against KC. THis is really a big game for Schaub. He's had some shaky starts so far, but I think if he can play well, we shouldn't have any trouble moving the ball. KC's run defensive prowess may be more related to the fact that the Colts, Chargers, 49ers are fairly bad at the run. And I think their pass defense is probably better than 25th since they've played the Chargers and the Colts.

Either way, I think it's a good game. KC can make it to the playoffs playing in a fairly weak division.
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Old 10-13-2010   #9
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

Just wanted to throw this out there:
KCs schedule has been very up and down

Game 1 against SD - Division game and SD always starts slow. I wouldn't read too much into this

Game 2 against Cleveland - Browns are in top 3 worst teams in NFL

Game 3 against SF - FIghting for the #1 draft pick at this point

Game 4 against Indy - Best and most meaningful game so far. They played better than I thought they would, but did lose.


Combined winning percentage of teams KC has played: 6-14
Combined winning percentage of our opponents: 12-12

Im not so sure our statistical comparisons are so valid just yet. They were tested last week, and came through. But this Indy team isn't the same as years past. We handled them as well. They did give Peyton fits though, which is way more than I can say about us
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Old 10-13-2010   #10
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

Quote:
Originally Posted by gtexan02 View Post
Just wanted to throw this out there:
KCs schedule has been very up and down

Game 1 against SD - Division game and SD always starts slow. I wouldn't read too much into this

Game 2 against Cleveland - Browns are in top 3 worst teams in NFL

Game 3 against SF - FIghting for the #1 draft pick at this point

Game 4 against Indy - Best and most meaningful game so far. They played better than I thought they would, but did lose.


Combined winning percentage of teams KC has played: 6-14
Combined winning percentage of our opponents: 12-12

Im not so sure our statistical comparisons are so valid just yet. They were tested last week, and came through. But this Indy team isn't the same as years past. We handled them as well. They did give Peyton fits though, which is way more than I can say about us

Are you saying that we did not give Manning fits in the first game? He was hit repeatedly and under pressure consistently. No one else has applied that kind of pressure on him this year. Not the Giants or anyone else.
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Old 10-13-2010   #11
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

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Originally Posted by JB View Post
Are you saying that we did not give Manning fits in the first game? He was hit repeatedly and under pressure consistently. No one else has applied that kind of pressure on him this year. Not the Giants or anyone else.
Hit or not, we obviously didn't disrupt his passing success against us.
He was 40/57 for 433 yards (over 7 ypa) with 3 TDs and no INTs, and a 110 QB rating


I made a post a few years ago showing that there is not always a correlation between sacks and QB success. In order to disrupt and defeat a truly great QB like Manning, a great secondary needs to be paired with good pressure.

The Chiefs forced manning into 26/44 for 240 (roughly 5.5 ypa) with no TDs and 1 INT. He had a 65 QB rating.

Id say they easily outplayed us against him on defense, regardless of the pressure they were bringing
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Old 10-13-2010   #12
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

I think KC catches us at a bad time after that dump we took on the field last week. This team cannot afford to go 1-3 at home to start the season. No friggin way.
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Old 10-14-2010   #13
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

Quote:
Originally Posted by gtexan02 View Post
Just wanted to throw this out there:
KCs schedule has been very up and down

Game 1 against SD - Division game and SD always starts slow. I wouldn't read too much into this

Game 2 against Cleveland - Browns are in top 3 worst teams in NFL

Game 3 against SF - FIghting for the #1 draft pick at this point

Game 4 against Indy - Best and most meaningful game so far. They played better than I thought they would, but did lose.


Combined winning percentage of teams KC has played: 6-14
Combined winning percentage of our opponents: 12-12

Im not so sure our statistical comparisons are so valid just yet. They were tested last week, and came through. But this Indy team isn't the same as years past. We handled them as well. They did give Peyton fits though, which is way more than I can say about us
That's really interesting. They've played a fairly soft schedule (and it continues for most of the year) I'm more worried about protecting Schaub than I'm our run game. I think our run should be able to set a good pace for us.

Our run defense really has to show up on Sunday. I'm less worried about getting burned through the air given Cassel's woes, but it would still be good to see some sacks / forced turnovers
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Old 10-14-2010   #14
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texecutioner View Post
Their defense is very good. Hopefully we can run the ball really well against them and work the play action.

Agreed. This is the only thing about KC besides from their running game that worries me. I think we have the upperhand in all other facets of the game.

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Old 10-14-2010   #15
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

Quote:
Originally Posted by GoChiefs View Post
One thing you should know, our passing D is a lot better than the total yardage stats indicate.
We are too!!



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Old 10-14-2010   #16
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

I look to see the running game in a bit different role this game rather than Foster banging up the middle (unless that proves possible early in game then you stick with it.) I see the coaches watching Jamaal Charles on film then remembering they have a guy that can run like Charles. I also expect to see a bit more of Derrick Ward also. Hopefully that will be a positive.
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Old 10-14-2010   #17
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texecutioner View Post
I think the Texans will win this one by ten points. THeir offense is terrible outside their running game. Jamal Charles will most likely have some big plays though.

Their defense is very good. Hopefully we can run the ball really well against them and work the play action.
I remember that old guy running for 105 yards against us last year, so I won't be forgetting him. We shut him down for 3.5 Qtrs, but allowed him to pick up those yards on 2 carries.

Consistency for 60 minutes will be the name of the game.
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Old 10-14-2010   #18
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

Walter Football has us as their October pick of the month.

http://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2010_06early.php
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Old 10-14-2010   #19
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

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Originally Posted by JB View Post
Are you saying that we did not give Manning fits in the first game? He was hit repeatedly and under pressure consistently. No one else has applied that kind of pressure on him this year. Not the Giants or anyone else.
Same holds true for last year, which makes me wonder why are we able to pressure and sack Manning, when no one else can..... but come up empty against other "normal" teams?
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Old 10-14-2010   #20
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Default Re: KC Chiefs at Houston Texans

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Same holds true for last year, which makes me wonder why are we able to pressure and sack Manning, when no one else can..... but come up empty against other "normal" teams?
Good question. At this point, I am thinking it's about want to.
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