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Old 10-12-2010   #1
Yankee_In_TX
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Cool MUST wins

I took a look at the schedule and asked myself - what games are must wins not to MAKE the playoffs, but to convince me that we could do anything other than one and done?

My answer:

(Division games didn't really tell me anything - we have the ABILITY to beat anyone in the division)

-Jets, otherwise why can't the do what they did last year? Also, a VERY good defense.

-Ravens, another steller defense.

Both teams are in the AFC. Both are playoff teams with a chance to win the division, IMHO.
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Old 10-12-2010   #2
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Default Re: MUST wins

Good choices, and I believe they will both KILL us.
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Old 10-12-2010   #3
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Cool Re: MUST wins

Quote:
Originally Posted by HJam72 View Post
Good choices, and I believe they will both KILL us.
If that happens I will reluctantly accept the pink soap, playoffs or not. Barring a mircale playoff run.
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Old 10-12-2010   #4
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Default Re: MUST wins

I don't think the Ravens defense is nearly as good as it was last year. The Jets on the other hand, look like a better defense than last year.
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Old 10-12-2010   #5
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Cool Re: MUST wins

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
I don't think the Ravens defense is nearly as good as it was last year. The Jets on the other hand, look like a better defense than last year.
Ed Reed should be back by then. I'm worried we're going to get embarasssed on national TV.
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Old 10-12-2010   #6
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Default Re: MUST wins

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yankee_In_TX View Post
Ed Reed should be back by then. I'm worried we're going to get embarasssed on national TV.
I'm not worried. It's called acceptance.
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Old 10-12-2010   #7
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Default Re: MUST wins

I looked at the rest of the schedule in terms of home wins and road wins. I figure we need at least 10 wins for a wildcard spot. Typically it means we need 5 home and 5 Road wins. Who can we beat 4 more times at home and 3 more time on the road.

Right now 4 (5 more) home wins seem very tough but if you asked me, I would say we could beat the Chiefs, Titans and Jags. This would make the Chargers and Ravens must win games because anything can happen in division games and we would still need one more home win. We got to go 4-1 in our next 5 home games.

Away games. We are 2-0. So we need to go at least 3-3 over our next 6 road games. I think we can beat the Jags, Broncos and it's a split with Indy and Tenn. This is going to be harder to do because our other games are @ Philly and @ NYJ. Both tough places to play. So really the Jags, Broncos and Titans games are must wins.
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Old 10-12-2010   #8
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Cool Re: MUST wins

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Tejano View Post
I looked at the rest of the schedule in terms of home wins and road wins. I figure we need at least 10 wins for a wildcard spot. Typically it means we need 5 home and 5 Road wins. Who can we beat 4 more times at home and 3 more time on the road.

Right now 4 (5 more) home wins seem very tough but if you asked me, I would say we could beat the Chiefs, Titans and Jags. This would make the Chargers and Ravens must win games because anything can happen in division games and we would still need one more home win. We got to go 4-1 in our next 5 home games.

Away games. We are 2-0. So we need to go at least 3-3 over our next 6 road games. I think we can beat the Jags, Broncos and it's a split with Indy and Tenn. This is going to be harder to do because our other games are @ Philly and @ NYJ. Both tough places to play. So really the Jags, Broncos and Titans games are must wins.

I meant, by 'must win,' games that will help convince me we're for real and can be consistent. Winning inside the division or in Denver, for instance, tells me nothing.
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Old 10-12-2010   #9
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Default Re: MUST wins

I don't even want to think about playing the jets or the ravens...right about now, those games are looking like they will shape up to resemble that Sunday night massacre we suffered against the seahawks in 2005. Both teams can pass & both play tough, hard nosed defense...
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Old 10-12-2010   #10
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Default Re: MUST wins

I think we need to get 10 wins. While 9 wins may get you in, 10 wins is usually the number you need. The Texans are currently 3-2. There are 11 more games on the schedule. In my opinion, the Texans MUST go 7-4 (or better) from this point forward to make the playoffs. If they go 6-5, they may make the playoffs. If they go 5-6 they probably will not make the playoffs and they if they 4-7 they will definitely not make the playoffs.

So, in my opinion they must win any 7 of the remaining 11 games.
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Old 10-12-2010   #11
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Default Re: MUST wins

We'll see. I like to take things one game at a time and if the Texans win this next game, it'll mean a lot to me.

Looking at the Ravens and Jets now, it looks as if those teams would beat us. Things change a lot week from week in the NFL though so who knows? Those teams could very well be on a losing streak when we go to play them. I'm just happy we don't have to play the Steelers...
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Old 10-12-2010   #12
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Default Re: MUST wins

Not sure how many wins we'll need but I sure hope we get them.

The AFC South is all sitting at 3-2.

The good news, no... the great news is we're 1-0 in our division and 2-0 against the AFC. our 2 losses are against NFC opponents.

The Colts are 0-2 in the division and 2-2 against the AFC.

I think if we want to make the playoffs, we need to win the division. I think we have a better shot of that than earning a wildcard spot. For the wild card, we're competing (right now) against the 3-1 Patriots and 3-1 Steelers. Their division leaders? 4-1 Jets and 4-1 Ravens. I really think the wild card spots will come from the North and East divisions. And quite frankly, they should - they're better teams than us.

Our division games are extremely important to win, as they usually are. It's still really early into the season, especially with all of us tied. The good news (or bad news however you want to look at it) is that each AFC South team has looked good and each have looked terrible. It's anyone's division this year. WE JUST HAVE TO STEP UP AND TAKE IT.
The tie-breaking procedures within the division are as follows:
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TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs
Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
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Old 10-12-2010   #13
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Default Re: MUST wins

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yankee_In_TX View Post
I took a look at the schedule and asked myself - what games are must wins not to MAKE the playoffs, but to convince me that we could do anything other than one and done?

My answer:

(Division games didn't really tell me anything - we have the ABILITY to beat anyone in the division)

-Jets, otherwise why can't the do what they did last year? Also, a VERY good defense.

-Ravens, another steller defense.

Both teams are in the AFC. Both are playoff teams with a chance to win the division, IMHO.

As soon as i watched the atrocity i saw on sunday, i officially marked these games as losses. If we thought the Giants were physical, the Ravens and Jets will rip us a new one.
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Old 10-12-2010   #14
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Default Re: MUST wins

KC - Win
BYE - WIN!
Indy - Loss
San Diego - Loss
Jax - Win
Jets - Loss
Tenn - Win
Philly - Loss
Ravens - Loss
Tenn - Loss
Denver - Loss
Jax - Win

final Record - 7-9 -plus minus 1 game.

This 6 week strech will kill us.

@ Jets - Loss
Tenn - Win
@ Philly - Loss
Ravens - Loss
@ Tenn - Loss
@ Denver - Loss
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Old 10-12-2010   #15
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Default Re: MUST wins

I have tickets to the remaining home games, and honestly, I am considering skipping the Ravens game. I love Monday night games, but, that is going to be an utter disaster.
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Old 10-12-2010   #16
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Default Re: MUST wins

KC - Winnable no real passing game
BYE - WIN!
Indy - Winnable division game & can't stop the run
San Diego - winnable special teams & defense isn't all that great
Jax - Winable division game, defense is suspect
Jets - Loss- just too much
Tenn - Winable division game
Philly - Vick= loss, Kolb= winnable
Ravens - Loss - just too much
Tenn - Winable division game
Denver - Winable
Jax - Winable division game

there are only 2 certified loss on the schedule imo which are the jets & ravens for the reasons listed above. The division games are winable just by virtue of us knowing them really well in addition to their problems. i think we can get to 7-4 but the more likely is 6-5. The other games don't appear as overwhelming are are very winable imo. The chargers haven't proven they can stop anybody & depending on who plays qb for philly will depend on whether we can beat them or not.
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Old 10-12-2010   #17
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Cool Re: MUST wins

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr teX View Post
KC - Winnable no real passing game
BYE - WIN!
Indy - Winnable division game & can't stop the run
San Diego - winnable special teams & defense isn't all that great
Jax - Winable division game, defense is suspect
Jets - Loss- just too much
Tenn - Winable division game
Philly - Vick= loss, Kolb= winnable
Ravens - Loss - just too much
Tenn - Winable division game
Denver - Winable
Jax - Winable division game

there are only 2 certified loss on the schedule imo which are the jets & ravens for the reasons listed above. The division games are winable just by virtue of us knowing them really well in addition to their problems. i think we can get to 7-4 but the more likely is 6-5. The other games don't appear as overwhelming are are very winable imo. The chargers haven't proven they can stop anybody & depending on who plays qb for philly will depend on whether we can beat them or not.
Ahhh - but the point of my thread, if we get destroyed by the Jets and the Ravens, what's the point if we make the playoffs? As Texans fans do we want to make the playoffs only get get embarassed?
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Old 10-12-2010   #18
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Default Re: MUST wins

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yankee_In_TX View Post
Ahhh - but the point of my thread, if we get destroyed by the Jets and the Ravens, what's the point if we make the playoffs? As Texans fans do we want to make the playoffs only get get embarassed?
In a word YES !! Gotta get the feet wet first..I'd rather be 1 and done than never !
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Old 10-12-2010   #19
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Default Re: MUST wins

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Originally Posted by Yankee_In_TX View Post
Ahhh - but the point of my thread, if we get destroyed by the Jets and the Ravens, what's the point if we make the playoffs? As Texans fans do we want to make the playoffs only get get embarassed?
I want to make the playoffs even if we get destroyed during the 1st round. So what if we get embarrassed, I'd rather that than be embarrassed by yet another season with no playoffs. Any given Sunday is a grossly overused term but ah hell I'll say it, lol. You never know when we play them a second time.

Last year was a good example of one where if we just squeeked in, I thought we had a legit shot of advancing pretty far. This year, it seems like it could be tougher.

But I still want to win the division and go to the playoffs. We have to keep progressing and be playing well at the end of the season (again). Let's ride that momentum!!
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Old 10-12-2010   #20
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Cool Re: MUST wins

I guess I am afraid if we squeek in it'll be false hope and the organization won't make changes that need to be made.

Maybe the Astros have jaded me?
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