Go Back   Houston Texans Message Board & Forum - TexansTalk.com > The Great Fans of the Houston Texans > Texans Talk
Home Forums Register FAQDonate Automatic Monthly Contribution Members List Mark Forums Read


Texans Talk Football talk only please. Keep it to the game, the players, the coaches and management.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-11-2010   #1
gtexan02
Working?
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Boston
Age: 30
Posts: 15,573
Rep Power: 48121 gtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Why does our team seem to undervalue the safety position?

Over the past 2-3 years on this messageboard, I have repeatedly made the same point:
The majority of teams with a good pass defense have at least one truly dependable, game changing safety.
I now think it goes even further. Every team with a great defense requires at least one really talented safety.

Here have been some of my past points:
1. Almost every recent playoff team has had probowl level safety play from at least one safety spots.
Taking last year as an example:
Superbowl Winner - NO Saints - Sharper and Harper - Both had probowl years
Superbowl Loser - Colts - Bathea - Probowl year
Cardinals - Wilson & Rolle
Ravens - Reed
Packers - Collins
Patriots - Merriweather
Eagles - Mikell
(I dont think Vikes, Jets, Cowboys or Chargers had a probowl safety)

The interesting thing is that 70% of the teams with a probowl safety made the playoffs. And the rest (with the exception of Buffalo) were extremely close.


2. Probowl safety play results in teams winning the turnover battle.
You can check previous posts for stats on this. Look at the Steelers with and without Polamalu for a good example

3. And now I have a 3rd stat. Teams that draft 1st round safeties see immediate turn arounds on defense. (Stats will be rankings of opponent passer rating, rather than ypg)

2010

Chiefs - Drafted Berry in 1st round - Currently rank 11, last year ranked 20th
Seahawks - Drafted Thomas in 1st round - Currently rank 16th, ranked 28th last year
(Philly and Cleveland both drafted 2nd round safeties, philly improved from 11th to 7th currently, and cleveland remained about the same, in the mid 20s, decreasing slightly)

2009
No 1st round safeties were chosen, but 1st 3 safeties picked were (all 2nd rounders):
Lions - Delmas - ranked 32nd before, ranked 32nd after (although they improved statistically- they were just that bad)
Patriots - Chung - ranked 23rd before, ranked 13th after
Bills - Byrd - ranked 17th before, ranked 2nd after

2008
Only 1 1st rounder, and only 1 second rounder.
Giants - Kenny Phillips (1st round) - 17th before, 8th after
Vikings - Johnson (2nd) - 23rd before, 16th after

Counting this years (even though its not a full year), the average improvement a team gets the year after it spends a high draft pick on a safety in terms of qb rating against is approximately 7 ranking points. Moving from 10 to 3 or 17 to 10. Thats a pretty big jump in a 32 team league.


Why does our team seem to undervalue the safety position?
__________________
Adios until next season. See you then
gtexan02 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2010   #2
Texecutioner
Hall of Fame
 
Texecutioner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 13,439
Rep Power: 87675 Texecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Why does our team seem to undervalue the safety position?

I've been asking that question for years now.
Texecutioner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2010   #3
silvrhand
Site Contributor
 
silvrhand's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: La Porte, TX
Section: 135J 5-8
Age: 39
Posts: 2,138
Rep Power: 19116 silvrhand is a quality contributor and well respectedsilvrhand is a quality contributor and well respectedsilvrhand is a quality contributor and well respectedsilvrhand is a quality contributor and well respectedsilvrhand is a quality contributor and well respectedsilvrhand is a quality contributor and well respectedsilvrhand is a quality contributor and well respectedsilvrhand is a quality contributor and well respectedsilvrhand is a quality contributor and well respectedsilvrhand is a quality contributor and well respectedsilvrhand is a quality contributor and well respected
Send a message via AIM to silvrhand Send a message via MSN to silvrhand Send a message via Yahoo to silvrhand
Default Re: Why does our team seem to undervalue the safety position?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texecutioner View Post
I've been asking that question for years now.
But we got pollard right? Don't get me wrong I love some bone jarring hits from a safety but boy has he looked bad in coverage of late, and safety coverage is far easier.. deep as the deepest man..

It's not all that hard
silvrhand is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2010   #4
Texecutioner
Hall of Fame
 
Texecutioner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 13,439
Rep Power: 87675 Texecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respectedTexecutioner is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Why does our team seem to undervalue the safety position?

Quote:
Originally Posted by silvrhand View Post
But we got pollard right? Don't get me wrong I love some bone jarring hits from a safety but boy has he looked bad in coverage of late, and safety coverage is far easier.. deep as the deepest man..

It's not all that hard
We did get Pollard and I love the guy, but hell Pollard was a guy that was let go by the Chiefs and we just snagged him up thinking he'd just be more of a filler at times. We got lucky with Pollard being the machine that he's been thus far. We've had so many opportunities to go after top notch safeties around the league and we decline to every time whether it's been in the draft or in the free market for a guy who has been a big time player.
Texecutioner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2010   #5
The1ApplePie
Hall of Fame
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Age: 32
Posts: 9,052
Rep Power: 81206 The1ApplePie is a quality contributor and well respectedThe1ApplePie is a quality contributor and well respectedThe1ApplePie is a quality contributor and well respectedThe1ApplePie is a quality contributor and well respectedThe1ApplePie is a quality contributor and well respectedThe1ApplePie is a quality contributor and well respectedThe1ApplePie is a quality contributor and well respectedThe1ApplePie is a quality contributor and well respectedThe1ApplePie is a quality contributor and well respectedThe1ApplePie is a quality contributor and well respectedThe1ApplePie is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Why does our team seem to undervalue the safety position?

Quote:
Originally Posted by silvrhand View Post
But we got pollard right? Don't get me wrong I love some bone jarring hits from a safety but boy has he looked bad in coverage of late, and safety coverage is far easier.. deep as the deepest man..

It's not all that hard
The only safety we had a shot at in the draft was Taylor Mays, who is basically a more athletic Pollard.

Antrell Rolle was a big free agent this year though
The1ApplePie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2010   #6
Dutchrudder 
COOL BEANS!
 
Dutchrudder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Houston
Section: Fort Kickass
Age: 29
Posts: 15,063
Rep Power: 150980 Dutchrudder is a quality contributor and well respectedDutchrudder is a quality contributor and well respectedDutchrudder is a quality contributor and well respectedDutchrudder is a quality contributor and well respectedDutchrudder is a quality contributor and well respectedDutchrudder is a quality contributor and well respectedDutchrudder is a quality contributor and well respectedDutchrudder is a quality contributor and well respectedDutchrudder is a quality contributor and well respectedDutchrudder is a quality contributor and well respectedDutchrudder is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Why does our team seem to undervalue the safety position?

Couple things that come to mind Gtex:

The 49ers drafted Taylor Mays in the 2nd last year, but have they seen any secondary improvement?

I think the Steelers won two super bowls when Troy was having an awesome year too. He got hurt last year and they missed the playoffs by a tiebreaker.

The Giants last year looked great up until the injuries started to happen. Kenny Phillips went down mid-year, but I don't remember exactly when. It may coincide with that team's defensive decline over the year and help prove your point even more.

You mention Mikel of the Eagles, but if you go back a bit further I believe Brian Dawkins was a huge playmaker during their Super Bowl run.
__________________
Life is too important to be taken seriously. -Oscar Wilde
Dutchrudder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2010   #7
gtexan02
Working?
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Boston
Age: 30
Posts: 15,573
Rep Power: 48121 gtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Why does our team seem to undervalue the safety position?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
Couple things that come to mind Gtex:

The 49ers drafted Taylor Mays in the 2nd last year, but have they seen any secondary improvement?

I think the Steelers won two super bowls when Troy was having an awesome year too. He got hurt last year and they missed the playoffs by a tiebreaker.

The Giants last year looked great up until the injuries started to happen. Kenny Phillips went down mid-year, but I don't remember exactly when. It may coincide with that team's defensive decline over the year and help prove your point even more.

Lets see, this year the 49ers are ranked 28th. Last year they were ranked 21st. They've had a drop so far.
__________________
Adios until next season. See you then
gtexan02 is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored links
Old 10-11-2010   #8
gtexan02
Working?
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Boston
Age: 30
Posts: 15,573
Rep Power: 48121 gtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Why does our team seem to undervalue the safety position?

Quote:
Originally Posted by The1ApplePie View Post
The only safety we had a shot at in the draft was Taylor Mays, who is basically a more athletic Pollard.

Antrell Rolle was a big free agent this year though
True. This year we didn't have a great chance, but we could have tried to move up for Thomas. He didnt go all that high and has been great so far.
__________________
Adios until next season. See you then
gtexan02 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2010   #9
beerlover
Site Contributor
 
beerlover's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 12,307
Rep Power: 49476 beerlover is a quality contributor and well respectedbeerlover is a quality contributor and well respectedbeerlover is a quality contributor and well respectedbeerlover is a quality contributor and well respectedbeerlover is a quality contributor and well respectedbeerlover is a quality contributor and well respectedbeerlover is a quality contributor and well respectedbeerlover is a quality contributor and well respectedbeerlover is a quality contributor and well respectedbeerlover is a quality contributor and well respectedbeerlover is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Why does our team seem to undervalue the safety position?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gtexan02 View Post
Over the past 2-3 years on this messageboard, I have repeatedly made the same point:
The majority of teams with a good pass defense have at least one truly dependable, game changing safety.
I now think it goes even further. Every team with a great defense requires at least one really talented safety.

Here have been some of my past points:
1. Almost every recent playoff team has had probowl level safety play from at least one safety spots.
Taking last year as an example:
Superbowl Winner - NO Saints - Sharper and Harper - Both had probowl years
Superbowl Loser - Colts - Bathea - Probowl year
Cardinals - Wilson & Rolle
Ravens - Reed
Packers - Collins
Patriots - Merriweather
Eagles - Mikell
(I dont think Vikes, Jets, Cowboys or Chargers had a probowl safety)

The interesting thing is that 70% of the teams with a probowl safety made the playoffs. And the rest (with the exception of Buffalo) were extremely close.


2. Probowl safety play results in teams winning the turnover battle.
You can check previous posts for stats on this. Look at the Steelers with and without Polamalu for a good example

3. And now I have a 3rd stat. Teams that draft 1st round safeties see immediate turn arounds on defense. (Stats will be rankings of opponent passer rating, rather than ypg)

2010

Chiefs - Drafted Berry in 1st round - Currently rank 11, last year ranked 20th
Seahawks - Drafted Thomas in 1st round - Currently rank 16th, ranked 28th last year
(Philly and Cleveland both drafted 2nd round safeties, philly improved from 11th to 7th currently, and cleveland remained about the same, in the mid 20s, decreasing slightly)

2009
No 1st round safeties were chosen, but 1st 3 safeties picked were (all 2nd rounders):
Lions - Delmas - ranked 32nd before, ranked 32nd after (although they improved statistically- they were just that bad)
Patriots - Chung - ranked 23rd before, ranked 13th after
Bills - Byrd - ranked 17th before, ranked 2nd after

2008
Only 1 1st rounder, and only 1 second rounder.
Giants - Kenny Phillips (1st round) - 17th before, 8th after
Vikings - Johnson (2nd) - 23rd before, 16th after

Counting this years (even though its not a full year), the average improvement a team gets the year after it spends a high draft pick on a safety in terms of qb rating against is approximately 7 ranking points. Moving from 10 to 3 or 17 to 10. Thats a pretty big jump in a 32 team league.


Why does our team seem to undervalue the safety position?
rep your way. the most aggressive play would have been to trade up for Earl Thomas once San Diego moved way ahead of the Texans for Mathews. those two players should have been options 1a & 1b. imagine how much better this defense would be with a ballhawk like Thomas?

otherwise the Texans have not been in position (early 2nd) to draft one of the elite safties. I really wanted either Louis Delmas or Patrick Chung in 09 but both taken with the first picks of the second round. This past draft we (badboy, rmartin65) targeted Nate Allen as top priority safety but he too was gone long before the Texans pick (taken #37th overall).
__________________

2012 Draft was Mercilus
beerlover is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2010   #10
TimeKiller
Awaiting Email Confirmation
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: This giant tree, standing 10,000 ft. high but not reaching the ground. It's roots must hold the sky.
Section: 521/Couch
Age: 28
Posts: 7,648
Rep Power: 0 TimeKiller is a quality contributor and well respectedTimeKiller is a quality contributor and well respectedTimeKiller is a quality contributor and well respectedTimeKiller is a quality contributor and well respectedTimeKiller is a quality contributor and well respectedTimeKiller is a quality contributor and well respectedTimeKiller is a quality contributor and well respectedTimeKiller is a quality contributor and well respectedTimeKiller is a quality contributor and well respectedTimeKiller is a quality contributor and well respectedTimeKiller is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Why does our team seem to undervalue the safety position?

It's not even that we haven't used a 1st....we haven't used a 2nd...3rd...4th....5th....late round safeties every other year and journeyman F/A's just aren't going to cut it apparently. Frankly it looks like they are playing 4 strong safeties out there.
TimeKiller is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2010   #11
gtexan02
Working?
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Boston
Age: 30
Posts: 15,573
Rep Power: 48121 gtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Why does our team seem to undervalue the safety position?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeKiller View Post
It's not even that we haven't used a 1st....we haven't used a 2nd...3rd...4th....5th....late round safeties every other year and journeyman F/A's just aren't going to cut it apparently. Frankly it looks like they are playing 4 strong safeties out there.
Exactly. Great safety play can open up a lot of options for a defense.
A great safety or two can make your corners look a lot better, which in turn can make your defense line look a lot better.

Great safeties also help linebackers in the run game and can help cover TEs so you dont end up with Diles 5 yards behind D Clark

Weve spent countless first and early round picks on defensive players. Either we're terrible at scouting, or our schemes are garbage or we are missing some key pieces. its like having a great offense with no QB
__________________
Adios until next season. See you then
gtexan02 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Go Back   Houston Texans Message Board & Forum - TexansTalk.com > The Great Fans of the Houston Texans > Texans Talk
Home Forums Register FAQ Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:36 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.2
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Ad Management by RedTyger