Go Back   Houston Texans Message Board & Forum - TexansTalk.com > The Great Fans of the Houston Texans > Texans Talk
Home Forums Register FAQDonate Automatic Monthly Contribution Members List Mark Forums Read


Texans Talk Football talk only please. Keep it to the game, the players, the coaches and management.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-09-2010   #1
thunderkyss 
& so it begins
 
thunderkyss's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Texas
Age: 42
Posts: 35,047
Rep Power: 264941 thunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respected
Send a message via Yahoo to thunderkyss
Default ESPN's prediction

Anyone ever see these? Pretty math intensive, and by simulation I wonder if they mean Madden.
__________________
thunderkyss is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2010   #2
HTown2ATX
TexansMetalhead
 
HTown2ATX's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Austin
Posts: 4,127
Rep Power: 64539 HTown2ATX is a quality contributor and well respectedHTown2ATX is a quality contributor and well respectedHTown2ATX is a quality contributor and well respectedHTown2ATX is a quality contributor and well respectedHTown2ATX is a quality contributor and well respectedHTown2ATX is a quality contributor and well respectedHTown2ATX is a quality contributor and well respectedHTown2ATX is a quality contributor and well respectedHTown2ATX is a quality contributor and well respectedHTown2ATX is a quality contributor and well respectedHTown2ATX is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: ESPN's prediction

I doubt they mean Madden cause they had in letters at the bottom that the Texans were favored after 10,000 simulations.

Even if you set the timer to 1 minute per quarter, that's a hell of a lot of time that would take up.

Probably some algorythm they have.
__________________

Dormant bodies bursting!
HTown2ATX is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2010   #3
SrslySirius
Veteran
 
SrslySirius's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Houston
Age: 28
Posts: 138
Rep Power: 1371 SrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: ESPN's prediction

It is fashionable these days to dismiss mathematics and the scientific method, especially in matters that are seemingly objective; like sports. I could tell you that the probability of rolling a 4 on a 6-sided die is 16.6%, and that the chance of rolling anything else is 73.4%. Then I could roll a 4 six times in a row. The skeptic would say "Aha! So much for your junk science."

The skeptic would be right (sort of), but for the wrong reasons. The issue at hand here is sample size. Rolling the die 6 times isn't enough to prove anything. But if we roll that die a few thousand times, then the percentages should adhere to their expected values.

I believe it is possible to make accurate predictions in football with complete information. I'm not sure if ESPN is doing so accurately, but let's assume for the moment that they are. The fact still remains that this game only gets played one time. Any statistical projections are meaningless, just as they would be for trying to predict a die roll. I don't care that the Houston Texans are a 59% favorite over the New York Giants unless we get to play at least a few hundred games against them.
SrslySirius is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2010   #4
b0ng
Ooops
 
b0ng's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Age: 34
Posts: 7,769
Rep Power: 80379 b0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respectedb0ng is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: ESPN's prediction

They are using the What If Sports simulator to run these things. You absolutely cannot predict with any sort of certainty how a ball is going to bounce.
__________________
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
http://www.thedrawplay.com/?p=88
b0ng is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2010   #5
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
 
The Pencil Neck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Dallas, TX
Age: 52
Posts: 18,404
Rep Power: 279523 The Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: ESPN's prediction

The whole Accuscore thing depends on the model that you're running it against. And the model you're running it against is based on what you expect to happen. So... your results will usually tell you what the person who set it up expected to happen.

So...

It's BS.
The Pencil Neck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2010   #6
Yankee_In_TX
Dance Lindsay!
 
Yankee_In_TX's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Houston, 77008
Age: 35
Posts: 12,448
Rep Power: 10048 Yankee_In_TX is a quality contributor and well respectedYankee_In_TX is a quality contributor and well respectedYankee_In_TX is a quality contributor and well respectedYankee_In_TX is a quality contributor and well respectedYankee_In_TX is a quality contributor and well respectedYankee_In_TX is a quality contributor and well respectedYankee_In_TX is a quality contributor and well respectedYankee_In_TX is a quality contributor and well respectedYankee_In_TX is a quality contributor and well respectedYankee_In_TX is a quality contributor and well respectedYankee_In_TX is a quality contributor and well respected
Send a message via AIM to Yankee_In_TX
Cool Re: ESPN's prediction

Too many variables, period.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by DexmanC View Post
Booty took a sack, which is what you CAN'T do.
Only fan in Ohio in 2002 :) Glad I moved to Texas!
117 C BullPen
Sigh.
Yankee_In_TX is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2010   #7
Jackie Chiles
Hall of Fame
 
Jackie Chiles's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Houston
Age: 31
Posts: 1,864
Rep Power: 9611 Jackie Chiles is a quality contributor and well respectedJackie Chiles is a quality contributor and well respectedJackie Chiles is a quality contributor and well respectedJackie Chiles is a quality contributor and well respectedJackie Chiles is a quality contributor and well respectedJackie Chiles is a quality contributor and well respectedJackie Chiles is a quality contributor and well respectedJackie Chiles is a quality contributor and well respectedJackie Chiles is a quality contributor and well respectedJackie Chiles is a quality contributor and well respectedJackie Chiles is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: ESPN's prediction

It would be interesting if there was a way to check their accuracy, ie if the teams they favor 60 to 40 actually win close to 60 percent of the time.
__________________
"If the bra don't fit, you must acquit"
Jackie Chiles is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored links
Old 10-10-2010   #8
midway
Veteran
 
midway's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 230
Rep Power: 1491 midway is a quality contributor and well respectedmidway is a quality contributor and well respectedmidway is a quality contributor and well respectedmidway is a quality contributor and well respectedmidway is a quality contributor and well respectedmidway is a quality contributor and well respectedmidway is a quality contributor and well respectedmidway is a quality contributor and well respectedmidway is a quality contributor and well respectedmidway is a quality contributor and well respectedmidway is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: ESPN's prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post
I could tell you that the probability of rolling a 4 on a 6-sided die is 16.6%, and that the chance of rolling anything else is 73.4%.
What about the 10% when you roll neither a 4, nor something that isn't a 4 ?

(sorry, couldn't help myself)
midway is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2010   #9
Txn_in_Oki
Lucky 13
 
Txn_in_Oki's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Okinawa, Japan
Age: 39
Posts: 3,792
Rep Power: 32635 Txn_in_Oki is a quality contributor and well respectedTxn_in_Oki is a quality contributor and well respectedTxn_in_Oki is a quality contributor and well respectedTxn_in_Oki is a quality contributor and well respectedTxn_in_Oki is a quality contributor and well respectedTxn_in_Oki is a quality contributor and well respectedTxn_in_Oki is a quality contributor and well respectedTxn_in_Oki is a quality contributor and well respectedTxn_in_Oki is a quality contributor and well respectedTxn_in_Oki is a quality contributor and well respectedTxn_in_Oki is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: ESPN's prediction

They made a prediction?!?!!?

I saw Jenny Dell and lost my focus.
__________________
"I'm Commander Shepard and this is my favorite thread on Texans Talk."
Txn_in_Oki is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2010   #10
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
 
The Pencil Neck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Dallas, TX
Age: 52
Posts: 18,404
Rep Power: 279523 The Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: ESPN's prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jackie Chiles View Post
It would be interesting if there was a way to check their accuracy, ie if the teams they favor 60 to 40 actually win close to 60 percent of the time.
Prior to the season starting, they forecast us as 4th in the AFC South with 6 wins, iirc. I think they gave us a 0.0% chance to get to the playoffs. I remember the 6 wins because that was what I think Football Outsiders predicted as well.

So... let's get to the playoffs and prove these guys wrong.

(Accuscore had the Colts beating us 27-23 and gave the Colts a 63% chance to win the game.)
The Pencil Neck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2010   #11
YoungTexanFan
Hall of Fame
 
YoungTexanFan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 4,800
Rep Power: 1725 YoungTexanFan is a quality contributor and well respectedYoungTexanFan is a quality contributor and well respectedYoungTexanFan is a quality contributor and well respectedYoungTexanFan is a quality contributor and well respectedYoungTexanFan is a quality contributor and well respectedYoungTexanFan is a quality contributor and well respectedYoungTexanFan is a quality contributor and well respectedYoungTexanFan is a quality contributor and well respectedYoungTexanFan is a quality contributor and well respectedYoungTexanFan is a quality contributor and well respectedYoungTexanFan is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: ESPN's prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post
It is fashionable these days to dismiss mathematics and the scientific method, especially in matters that are seemingly objective; like sports. I could tell you that the probability of rolling a 4 on a 6-sided die is 16.6%, and that the chance of rolling anything else is 73.4%. Then I could roll a 4 six times in a row. The skeptic would say "Aha! So much for your junk science."

The skeptic would be right (sort of), but for the wrong reasons. The issue at hand here is sample size. Rolling the die 6 times isn't enough to prove anything. But if we roll that die a few thousand times, then the percentages should adhere to their expected values.

I believe it is possible to make accurate predictions in football with complete information. I'm not sure if ESPN is doing so accurately, but let's assume for the moment that they are. The fact still remains that this game only gets played one time. Any statistical projections are meaningless, just as they would be for trying to predict a die roll. I don't care that the Houston Texans are a 59% favorite over the New York Giants unless we get to play at least a few hundred games against them.
There has to be an acknowledged standard deviation, noted in some fashion. We can assume for our purposes that it is sigma. As it was mentioned in a previous post, we have to take into account expected value, which I believe was mentioned at 6 wins. Now, 6 is a constant number that can't be quantified into a percentage without context, but say we take the 6 out of 16 to get 37.5% wins. Now, that number is meaningless as you mention but for a different reason. For the sole purpose of this weeks game vs. the Giants, it doesn't provide a baseline. It is, itself, just a number. The total expected value of 6 is given, but no other factor is given. In math/statistical terms, we are trying to find the area under a normal slope between 6 and whatever the Giant's win total is projected as. That number, or percentage, should be OUR expected percentage before addition of the prior established "left of 6" when speaking in terms of the normal graph. You can divide said fraction by 1, giving you Mu. With Mu and Sigma figured out, you can use either the binomial method or the exponential (harder) method to predict accurately (as possible) the potential outcome based on the given info.
__________________
The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we had when we created them.
YoungTexanFan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2010   #12
axman40
Hall of Fame
 
axman40's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Austin
Age: 53
Posts: 21,378
Rep Power: 36873 axman40 is a quality contributor and well respectedaxman40 is a quality contributor and well respectedaxman40 is a quality contributor and well respectedaxman40 is a quality contributor and well respectedaxman40 is a quality contributor and well respectedaxman40 is a quality contributor and well respectedaxman40 is a quality contributor and well respectedaxman40 is a quality contributor and well respectedaxman40 is a quality contributor and well respectedaxman40 is a quality contributor and well respectedaxman40 is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: ESPN's prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
Prior to the season starting, they forecast us as 4th in the AFC South with 6 wins, iirc. I think they gave us a 0.0% chance to get to the playoffs. I remember the 6 wins because that was what I think Football Outsiders predicted as well.

So... let's get to the playoffs and prove these guys wrong.

(Accuscore had the Colts beating us 27-23 and gave the Colts a 63% chance to win the game.)
Yes but that was before they knew Foster is Texan for victory!
__________________
“The highway’s jammed with broken heroes on a last chance power drive.”
axman40 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2010   #13
SrslySirius
Veteran
 
SrslySirius's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Houston
Age: 28
Posts: 138
Rep Power: 1371 SrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respectedSrslySirius is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: ESPN's prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by midway View Post
What about the 10% when you roll neither a 4, nor something that isn't a 4 ?

(sorry, couldn't help myself)
No worries. I was completely hammered when I wrote that last night. Haha.
SrslySirius is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2010   #14
Big Lou
Stop Clowning
 
Big Lou's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Section: DirecTV
Age: 39
Posts: 3,253
Rep Power: 33937 Big Lou is a quality contributor and well respectedBig Lou is a quality contributor and well respectedBig Lou is a quality contributor and well respectedBig Lou is a quality contributor and well respectedBig Lou is a quality contributor and well respectedBig Lou is a quality contributor and well respectedBig Lou is a quality contributor and well respectedBig Lou is a quality contributor and well respectedBig Lou is a quality contributor and well respectedBig Lou is a quality contributor and well respectedBig Lou is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: ESPN's prediction

Well there is a Software Engineer somewhere that sucks as bad as the Texans do.......
__________________
Nothing is impossible, it just costs more.
Big Lou is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Go Back   Houston Texans Message Board & Forum - TexansTalk.com > The Great Fans of the Houston Texans > Texans Talk
Home Forums Register FAQ Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:06 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.2
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Ad Management by RedTyger