FO:Which Teams Over- or Under-Report Injuries?

[Wolf]

Adjusted Games Lost (AGL), our injury metric at Football Outsiders, makes sense of the injury report by incorporating the historical likelihood of a player with a given status and role on the team missing a game.

As an example, from 2007 through 2009, a starter on a team who was listed as "Doubtful" on the injury report in a given week only played 3.7 percent of the time. As a result, each time a starter appears on the injury report as "Doubtful," AGL values him as having missed .963 games, regardless of whether he actually plays or not.

It gets a little more complex than that for the actual calculation of AGL -- we're incorporating a rolling baseline for the year in question (owing to holes in data for the 1996-1999 campaigns) and also adjusting for the position in question.

This does an effective job of encapsulating the impact of injuries on teams, but one of the factors it doesn't consider is how individual teams may game the injury report. It's easy to imagine one team listing every player with a minor nick as "Probable," while another team simply leaves those players off of the report. The difference in AGL wouldn't be very dramatic, even over the course of one season, but it could add up over the course of several seasons.

To figure out which teams have deviated furthest from their injury report expectations, I calculated an "expected" number of games missed using AGL. As an example, from 2007 through 2009, the mix of players the Cardinals listed on the injury report would have yielded an expected 249 games missed by their players over that three-year stretch. The Cardinals actually had their players miss 239 games over that timeframe, so Arizona has played the injured guys on their roster about four percent more frequently than league average. (Since 239 is less than 249, in the subsequent chart, this is reported as -4.0 percent.)

I was surprised to see teams like Kansas City and Indianapolis on the other side of the coin. Tennessee, which finished fourth, wasn't as surprising: At points during Jeff Fisher's tenure, the Titans have stopped listing players as "Probable" altogether. That's no longer the case, but it's a sign of how Fisher views the injury report. The real difference in how Fisher uses the report nowadays is when players are listed as "Questionable." The difference in expected games missed by "Probable" Titans players is pretty tiny (eight actual games missed vs. 6.4 expected games missed in 91 instances), but Titans players listed as "Questionable" have missed 69 games versus 59.2 expected misses (in 133 instances).

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ext...eport-injuries


I know I (for one) don't believe what the Texans say when it comes to injury reports.. but this really surprised me. I thought we would be among the leagues highest (cough *Jets* cough)

HOU 354.5 (expected games missed)360(actual games missed )5.5(difference) 1.6% (percentage)

we are a little more than half way down the list

[CloakNNNdagger]

Originally Posted by Wolf

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ext...eport-injuries


I know I (for one) don't believe what the Texans say when it comes to injury reports.. but this really surprised me. I thought we would be among the leagues highest (cough *Jets* cough)



we are a little more than half way down the list

Very interesting. I can see where some of these numbers can be significantly skewed by injuries occuring during the preseason (it would seem that these may not be counted), injuries occuring prior to a bye week, and injuries near the end of the regular season rather than the beginning (including how far a team goes into the postseason).

[Wolf]

Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger

Very interesting. I can see where some of these numbers can be significantly skewed by injuries occuring during the preseason (it would seem that these may not be counted), injuries occuring prior to a bye week, and injuries near the end of the regular season rather than the beginning (including how far a team goes into the postseason).

yes


I guess with Boselli and DD .. I seem to have a opinion formed that the Texans downplay injuries (overall) but they seem to be right on (according to the link) . however the Colts and KC seem to downplay the injuries and the Jets (mangini era) seem to play possum when it comes to injuries

[Wolf]

This weeks injury report

http://www.nfl.com/injuries

Duane Brown Hamstring Full Participation in Practice Probable
Vonta Leach Neck Full Participation in Practice Probable
Neil Rackers Illness Full Participation in Practice Probable
Antonio Smith Back Full Participation in Practice Probable
Kevin Walter Hip Full Participation in Practice Probable
Mario Williams Groin Full Participation in Practice Probable
Eugene Wilson Back Full Participation in Practice Probable
Owen Daniels Knee Limited Participation in Practice Probable
Antwaun Molden Ankle Limited Participation in Practice Questionable
Amobi Okoye Ankle Limited Participation in Practice Questionable
Dominique Barber Shoulder Full Participation in Practice Probable