Go Back   Houston Texans Message Board & Forum - TexansTalk.com > The Great Fans of the Houston Texans > Texans Talk
Home Forums Register FAQDonate Automatic Monthly Contribution Members List Mark Forums Read


Texans Talk Football talk only please. Keep it to the game, the players, the coaches and management.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-26-2010   #1
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
 
CloakNNNdagger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 16,483
Rep Power: 266923 CloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

.................And Make The Playoffs?

Evidently, Football Outsiders 2010 Almanac has given the Texans 5.6 projected mean wins.

This writer summarizes each on of the five reasons that FO thinks the Texans will be worse than they were last year.

[Clink LINK)
CloakNNNdagger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-26-2010   #2
DiehardChris
You betcha!
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Back in Houston
Posts: 3,808
Rep Power: 1068 DiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

Rivers McCown wrote it for SBNation. He's a newish voice on the Houston Texans blogger scene, and he's KILLING it. You guys should bookmark that site and keep reading his stuff for sure.
__________________

www.HoustonDiehards.com
DiehardChris is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-26-2010   #3
JB
Old Curmudgeon
 
JB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Willis
Age: 58
Posts: 24,271
Rep Power: 123205 JB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by DiehardChris View Post
Rivers McCown wrote it for SBNation. He's a newish voice on the Houston Texans blogger scene, and he's KILLING it. You guys should bookmark that site and keep reading his stuff for sure.
Yep! I follow him on twitter so I can read all his stuff. Classic!
__________________
Re: Who starts at QB?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Norg View Post
Brain Cushing
JB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-26-2010   #4
m5kwatts
Hall of Fame
 
m5kwatts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,970
Rep Power: 877 m5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

These are some flaws in the formula I've detected:

-Does strength of schedule really mean anything? We all know the Steelers had the toughest schedule when they won the Super Bowl a few years ago. And so often we see teams (including our Texans) play down to their competition.

-Weather is impossible to factor in this formula. On any given weekend the weather conditions can weaken an opponents' assumed advantages over another. (Hate to use the Steelers again as an example but) Did FO factor in the weather when the Steelers beat the winless Dolphins 3-0 on MNF in the mud? Of course not.

-Injuries are a part of the formula. One thing I thought was interesting was when the article asserted that "the Texans WILL have more injuries in 2010 compared to 2009." Thats an outrageous claim with no tangible evidence other than league trends to back it up. I don't care what stats you use, injuries to an NFL team cannot be predicted with calculated numbers.

-Numbers don't always tell the truth in the NFL. Clearly this formula relies on statistical evidence. But how often does statistical evidence tell the truth about what's happening on the field? Guys get tackle stats for merely being in the area of a play. Another example, say player A goes unblocked on a snap and gets a sack. And lets say Player B was the one tying up the blockers who allowed Player A to get the sack. Well lets say Player A signs with another team in the offseason. He carries all the credit for that sack with him to the next team when it really belong with player B. But Football Outsiders says "Wow player A got a sack that makes his new team that much better in our formula." Thats a glaring flaw.
m5kwatts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-26-2010   #5
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
 
CloakNNNdagger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 16,483
Rep Power: 266923 CloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by m5kwatts View Post
-Injuries are a part of the formula. One thing I thought was interesting was when the article asserted that "the Texans WILL have more injuries in 2010 compared to 2009." Thats an outrageous claim with no tangible evidence other than league trends to back it up. I don't care what stats you use, injuries to an NFL team cannot be predicted with calculated numbers.
Certainly, I don't know for sure. But one thing they may be looking at is how many of the base roster is coming back off of 2009 injuries.........making them higher risk for reinjury in 2010.
CloakNNNdagger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-26-2010   #6
76Texan
Hall of Fame
 
76Texan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,561
Rep Power: 83970 76Texan is a quality contributor and well respected76Texan is a quality contributor and well respected76Texan is a quality contributor and well respected76Texan is a quality contributor and well respected76Texan is a quality contributor and well respected76Texan is a quality contributor and well respected76Texan is a quality contributor and well respected76Texan is a quality contributor and well respected76Texan is a quality contributor and well respected76Texan is a quality contributor and well respected76Texan is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

It's utterly useless to use data from the previous year to predict the future.
Teams don't have the same players they did.
They are coaching changes that will affect the level of play of some team
76Texan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-26-2010   #7
TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
 
TheRealJoker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Conroe
Age: 27
Posts: 3,695
Rep Power: 15340 TheRealJoker is a quality contributor and well respectedTheRealJoker is a quality contributor and well respectedTheRealJoker is a quality contributor and well respectedTheRealJoker is a quality contributor and well respectedTheRealJoker is a quality contributor and well respectedTheRealJoker is a quality contributor and well respectedTheRealJoker is a quality contributor and well respectedTheRealJoker is a quality contributor and well respectedTheRealJoker is a quality contributor and well respectedTheRealJoker is a quality contributor and well respectedTheRealJoker is a quality contributor and well respected
Send a message via AIM to TheRealJoker
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

"-Injuries are a part of the formula. One thing I thought was interesting was when the article asserted that "the Texans WILL have more injuries in 2010 compared to 2009." Thats an outrageous claim with no tangible evidence other than league trends to back it up. I don't care what stats you use, injuries to an NFL team cannot be predicted with calculated numbers."

I somewhat disagree with this part of your post. Sure, freak injuries are unpredictable. But depending on how tough a coach runs a training camp, and how good the S&C/training staff are, also plays a role in the team's injuries.
__________________
What did the city of Houston do to anger the football gods?
TheRealJoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored links
Old 07-26-2010   #8
gtexan02
Working?
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Boston
Age: 31
Posts: 15,780
Rep Power: 74340 gtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respectedgtexan02 is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

How many wins did they project for us last season?
__________________
Drinking the kool aid
gtexan02 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-26-2010   #9
steelbtexan
Hall of Fame
 
steelbtexan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Age: 52
Posts: 12,560
Rep Power: 109572 steelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respectedsteelbtexan is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

7-9

I called it.

Make fun of me later, but I dont want to hear the usual excuse why the Texans didn't make the playoffs Uncle BoB.
steelbtexan is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2010   #10
m5kwatts
Hall of Fame
 
m5kwatts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,970
Rep Power: 877 m5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respectedm5kwatts is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
Certainly, I don't know for sure. But one thing they may be looking at is how many of the base roster is coming back off of 2009 injuries.........making them higher risk for reinjury in 2010.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRealJoker View Post
"-Injuries are a part of the formula. One thing I thought was interesting was when the article asserted that "the Texans WILL have more injuries in 2010 compared to 2009." Thats an outrageous claim with no tangible evidence other than league trends to back it up. I don't care what stats you use, injuries to an NFL team cannot be predicted with calculated numbers."

I somewhat disagree with this part of your post. Sure, freak injuries are unpredictable. But depending on how tough a coach runs a training camp, and how good the S&C/training staff are, also plays a role in the team's injuries.
Neither of these were mentioned as factors in the formula but I agree they would make sense. This is what the article says about injuries:

Quote:
Although I certainly believe that Houston has a lot of young talent on defense, the parts haven't added up to anything valuable yet -- even with the eighth-healthiest unit in football last year, the Texans' defense was 18th in the league in DVOA. They're going to suffer more injuries this year (even without including the Cushing suspension), and our projection system thinks the increase in injuries will be more important than the growth of Houston's young players
The bold part is what I'm objecting to. So because we were the 8th healthiest team in football last year, what goes up must come down and we'll be an injury-nagged team this year? Thats quite a reach.

And I have a discrepancy with their "healthiest football team" ranking. That doesn't measure the importance of the injured players. A team could be the healthiest team in the league for a year but lost their starting QB week 1 and lose 12 games that season because of it.
m5kwatts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2010   #11
DiehardChris
You betcha!
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Back in Houston
Posts: 3,808
Rep Power: 1068 DiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respectedDiehardChris is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by JB View Post
Yep! I follow him on twitter so I can read all his stuff. Classic!
I assume that you also follow me on Twitter, else I'll get my feelings hurt.

@HoustonDiehards
__________________

www.HoustonDiehards.com
DiehardChris is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2010   #12
JB
Old Curmudgeon
 
JB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Willis
Age: 58
Posts: 24,271
Rep Power: 123205 JB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respectedJB is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by DiehardChris View Post
I assume that you also follow me on Twitter, else I'll get my feelings hurt.

@HoustonDiehards
Of course I do!
__________________
Re: Who starts at QB?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Norg View Post
Brain Cushing
JB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2010   #13
badboy
Site Contributor
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Clear Lake
Posts: 24,074
Rep Power: 194239 badboy is a quality contributor and well respectedbadboy is a quality contributor and well respectedbadboy is a quality contributor and well respectedbadboy is a quality contributor and well respectedbadboy is a quality contributor and well respectedbadboy is a quality contributor and well respectedbadboy is a quality contributor and well respectedbadboy is a quality contributor and well respectedbadboy is a quality contributor and well respectedbadboy is a quality contributor and well respectedbadboy is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

I am willing to read any thought process concerning the Texans as long as it appears logical, research was done and it does not appear someone is being a homer or attacker. Most of us realise the team could go 5-11 or 11-5. I think this is the best roster we have had and if our draft picks are what front office thinks they are and Smith does well on Oline, we could be very good. Sure there are question marks but that can be said every off season at this time. Right now I am not concerned about injuries that might occur or other teams. If the players can do what the game plan says and Kubes improves on penalty flag decisions and game clock management (and he should), we will go beyond round one of play offs. Our offense should be just as good if not better and the D should improve quite a bit imo. I think we can have a 6-0 or 5-1 start. I fear no opponent this season.
__________________
I want to be able to recognize the difference between a "want" and a "need" and then I want to be satisfied with getting a need
badboy is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2010   #14
Lucky
Moderator
 
Lucky's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 13,402
Rep Power: 207841 Lucky is a quality contributor and well respectedLucky is a quality contributor and well respectedLucky is a quality contributor and well respectedLucky is a quality contributor and well respectedLucky is a quality contributor and well respectedLucky is a quality contributor and well respectedLucky is a quality contributor and well respectedLucky is a quality contributor and well respectedLucky is a quality contributor and well respectedLucky is a quality contributor and well respectedLucky is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

I like stats. A lot. They're good for telling you what happened. Not as good for telling you what will happen.

One reason NFL football is so difficult to predict is the sheer lack of statistically significant events. There are only 256 regular season games in a NFL season. As opposed to 2430 in a MLB season. There's not a lot of data to make predictions from.

Not to mention determining what data to use when running your models. Or if one set of data strongly affects another set. I had to laugh when I read this:

Quote:
Since 2000, 15 first-round cornerbacks have started 10 or more games in their rookie seasons, and only 4 of them have made the playoffs. Cornerbacks usually take a few years to develop, and early in their careers they make easy targets.
Really? Starting a 1st round rookie CB was a major determining factor in these teams not making the playoffs? Only 12 of the leagues 32 teams make the playoff in a given year (37.5%). 4 of the 15 teams starting 1st round rookie CB made the playoffs (26.7%) So the 10.8% difference is because of the 1st round CBs? Hell, just start a 2nd round or later CB, then.

There's a difference between losing Cushing for 4 games due to injury, and 4 games due to suspension. The Texans have the entire preseason to formulate a plan for this occurrence. The Texans know that they will be without Chester Pitts for the bulk of the season. Unlike last season. Does FO's modeling take that into account?

An equally valid model could be concocted that shows the Texans are more likely than not to become a playoff team. Just by selecting and/or discarding data that does or does not support the model. Attempting to use numbers only in determining what has happened is a daunting task. Attempting to use numbers only in determining what will happen is folly. What do your eyes see? Well, nothing yet. There hasn't even been a preseason game played. But, from what I've seen in the past, and what maneuvers I've witnessed in the offseason, this does not look like a team more likely to lose more games than they win.

I trust my eyes.
__________________
“We’re looking for a coach that...works with great energy and enthusiasm and very positive in his approach.” - Bob McNair
Lucky is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-28-2010   #15
michaelm
vox nihili
 
michaelm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Spring, TX
Section: 648
Age: 49
Posts: 5,703
Rep Power: 107589 michaelm is a quality contributor and well respectedmichaelm is a quality contributor and well respectedmichaelm is a quality contributor and well respectedmichaelm is a quality contributor and well respectedmichaelm is a quality contributor and well respectedmichaelm is a quality contributor and well respectedmichaelm is a quality contributor and well respectedmichaelm is a quality contributor and well respectedmichaelm is a quality contributor and well respectedmichaelm is a quality contributor and well respectedmichaelm is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucky View Post

I trust my eyes.
Agree with your entire post, but this sums it up nicely.
michaelm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-28-2010   #16
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
 
The Pencil Neck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Dallas, TX
Age: 52
Posts: 19,114
Rep Power: 345471 The Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respectedThe Pencil Neck is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by gtexan02 View Post
How many wins did they project for us last season?
Last year, they projected us to get 6 wins.

I love me some maths and I love me some statistics but I don't care how advanced the techniques are that you use, you gotta play the games. The biggest problem from projecting from last year's stats is that these are no longer last year's teams.

I love Football Outsiders but I'm not worried about their predictions.
The Pencil Neck is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2010   #17
sometexansfan
Blue Bomber
 
sometexansfan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Age: 27
Posts: 274
Rep Power: 142 sometexansfan is a quality contributor and well respectedsometexansfan is a quality contributor and well respectedsometexansfan is a quality contributor and well respectedsometexansfan is a quality contributor and well respectedsometexansfan is a quality contributor and well respectedsometexansfan is a quality contributor and well respectedsometexansfan is a quality contributor and well respectedsometexansfan is a quality contributor and well respectedsometexansfan is a quality contributor and well respectedsometexansfan is a quality contributor and well respectedsometexansfan is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

We had better or else...
sometexansfan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2010   #18
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
 
CloakNNNdagger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 16,483
Rep Power: 266923 CloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

Here's additional material further addressing the 5.6 wins projected by FO.

It is a very worthwhile "chat" between Rivers McCown and Vince Verhei of FO.

RiverSide Chat: Vince Verhei Of Football Outsiders
CloakNNNdagger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-30-2010   #19
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
 
CloakNNNdagger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 16,483
Rep Power: 266923 CloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respectedCloakNNNdagger is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by m5kwatts View Post
These are some flaws in the formula I've detected:

-Injuries are a part of the formula. One thing I thought was interesting was when the article asserted that "the Texans WILL have more injuries in 2010 compared to 2009." Thats an outrageous claim with no tangible evidence other than league trends to back it up. I don't care what stats you use, injuries to an NFL team cannot be predicted with calculated numbers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
Certainly, I don't know for sure. But one thing they may be looking at is how many of the base roster is coming back off of 2009 injuries.........making them higher risk for reinjury in 2010.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
It's utterly useless to use data from the previous year to predict the future.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRealJoker View Post
"-Injuries are a part of the formula. One thing I thought was interesting was when the article asserted that "the Texans WILL have more injuries in 2010 compared to 2009." Thats an outrageous claim with no tangible evidence other than league trends to back it up. I don't care what stats you use, injuries to an NFL team cannot be predicted with calculated numbers."

I somewhat disagree with this part of your post. Sure, freak injuries are unpredictable. But depending on how tough a coach runs a training camp, and how good the S&C/training staff are, also plays a role in the team's injuries.
Quote:
Originally Posted by m5kwatts View Post
Neither of these were mentioned as factors in the formula but I agree they would make sense. This is what the article says about injuries:

Quote:
Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger
Certainly, I don't know for sure. But one thing they may be looking at is how many of the base roster is coming back off of 2009 injuries.........making them higher risk for reinjury in 2010.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRealJoker
"-Injuries are a part of the formula. One thing I thought was interesting was when the article asserted that "the Texans WILL have more injuries in 2010 compared to 2009." Thats an outrageous claim with no tangible evidence other than league trends to back it up. I don't care what stats you use, injuries to an NFL team cannot be predicted with calculated numbers."
I somewhat disagree with this part of your post. Sure, freak injuries are unpredictable. But depending on how tough a coach runs a training camp, and how good the S&C/training staff are, also plays a role in the team's injuries.

The bold part is what I'm objecting to. So because we were the 8th healthiest team in football last year, what goes up must come down and we'll be an injury-nagged team this year? Thats quite a reach.

And I have a discrepancy with their "healthiest football team" ranking. That doesn't measure the importance of the injured players. A team could be the healthiest team in the league for a year but lost their starting QB week 1 and lose 12 games that season because of it.
I communicated with Football Outsiders concerning the basis of their "Team Health" analysis.

Dear Doc,

A variety of factors, including the team's health over the past few
years and the nature of the injuries (e.g. if the injury record is
mostly traumatic injuries like a torn ACL as opposed to nagging ones
like a sprained ankle).

-Bill
CloakNNNdagger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-30-2010   #20
thunderkyss 
& so it begins
 
thunderkyss's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Texas
Age: 42
Posts: 36,272
Rep Power: 323680 thunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respectedthunderkyss is a quality contributor and well respected
Send a message via Yahoo to thunderkyss
Default Re: Defying FO: Can The Texans Buck Advanced Statistical Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
It's utterly useless to use data from the previous year to predict the future.
Teams don't have the same players they did.
They are coaching changes that will affect the level of play of some team
So, what do we use to make us believe (those of us that do believe) that our team will finish better than they did last year?
__________________
thunderkyss is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Go Back   Houston Texans Message Board & Forum - TexansTalk.com > The Great Fans of the Houston Texans > Texans Talk
Home Forums Register FAQ Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:51 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.2
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Ad Management by RedTyger