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Old 06-28-2010   #1
nero THE zero
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Default Winston guest-writes for MMQB

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...mqb/index.html

He discusses a number of things including playoff predictions, things the NFL should change, and Texans tidbits:
Quote:
1. I think the Texans will be playing past Week 17 this season. We return 10 starters on each side of the ball. Last season, our defense over the final 13 weeks gave up just 87.6 rushing yards per game, good for fourth best in the league. Second-year defensive coordinator Frank Bush won't be starting this year from square one. On the other side of the ball, Matt Schaub has gotten better every year since his arrival. His 4,770 passing yards last season are more than Peyton Manning has ever thrown in a single season and rank sixth best all-time. Throw in the best receiver in football, Andre Johnson, and the best talent at the running back position since I have been here, and I think we will be balanced and hard to stop.

...

5. I think I'd like to see Texans rookie Trindon Holliday get in the open field this season. Unfortunately, I have seen the fastest guy in the NFL, Chris Johnson, get into the open field a couple times over the past few years, but I think Trindon can give him a run for his money. This guy is ridiculously fast. This video (around the 2:40 mark) does it justice.

...

7. I think my teammate, David Anderson, our slot receiver, is solid gold. With a twitter name like @whiteout89, you know the kind of sense of humor he has. It's only a matter of time before he gets in front of a TV and shows everyone else what we have been seeing and hearing in the locker room for the past four years. Nobody is safe from Dave's needle. He gets after everyone, but in a way that makes everyone, including the person getting needled, laugh. This usually happens during our 10-minute stretching period before practice. One guy will get it, some more than others, but every one laughs and stays loose. Oh, and he usually does his needling in an English accent. For some reason, it makes it that much more funny! Character guys are essential to have on a team.
Check it out, it's a really good read on a number of topics and a good perspective from the players' side of the CBA standstill.
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Old 06-28-2010   #2
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

Good read, thanks for posting it!
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Old 06-28-2010   #3
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

Erik is way too articulate to be a lineman.
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Old 06-28-2010   #4
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

David Anderson: More valuable IN the locker room or OUT of it (like on the field)?

I'd like to see Holliday in person. Dude looks fast racing 9 dudes who are all clearly burners. Elite among the elite. Find a way to translate his natural gifts to a football field!!!
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Old 06-28-2010   #5
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

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Originally Posted by sbalderrama View Post
Erik is way too articulate to be a lineman.
OLmen have historically been viewed as the "smart football players."
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Old 06-28-2010   #6
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

From the Winston quotes:
Quote:
Last season, our defense over the final 13 weeks gave up just 87.6 rushing yards per game, good for fourth best in the league.
Normally, I don't mind when a fan says this. But I don't think a coach or player, or even a "reporter" should say something as asinine.

It wouldn't be good for 4th in the league, unless you kick out the first 3 games of everyone else's schedule.

Or kick out the worst 3 performances...

You have to do one or the other, if you're going to say "...good for 4th best in the league." Unless you're a casual fan on a message board, or a blog that provides "questionable" data.

JMO
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Old 06-28-2010   #7
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

From the Winston article:
Quote:
I propose changing the schedule to where each team plays every team in their conference plus one rival from the NFC. This admittedly drastic idea would have three big repercussions:

Three, it would add a brand new aspect to the league year -- cross-conference rivalry week. I love this idea. It's like interleague baseball, but for just one game a season. There are some great rivalries (Texans-Cowboys, Steelers-Eagles, Jets-Giants, Raiders-Niners, etc.) that would be awesome to see annually. While I realize every team might not have a natural rival, I think the fans would still be excited for it.
While I like the idea from a S.O.S. perspective, I don't know that it would be Texans-Cowboys. I'm all for it. But I'm sure there are other AFC teams that would like to take a bite out of the Cowboys.

Steelers... Kansas City.. Browns...
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Old 06-28-2010   #8
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
OLmen have historically been viewed as the "smart football players."
Who wears the NFL's smarty pants?
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Old 06-28-2010   #9
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
From the Winston quotes:


Normally, I don't mind when a fan says this. But I don't think a coach or player, or even a "reporter" should say something as asinine.

It wouldn't be good for 4th in the league, unless you kick out the first 3 games of everyone else's schedule.

Or kick out the worst 3 performances...

You have to do one or the other, if you're going to say "...good for 4th best in the league." Unless you're a casual fan on a message board, or a blog that provides "questionable" data.

JMO
It's far from asinine. Sure the rankings might change slightly but point out the other teams that had as exceptionally bad first three weeks as the Texans and then went on to perform very well. If you can't, your point has no merit.
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Old 06-28-2010   #10
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
It's far from asinine. Sure the rankings might change slightly but point out the other teams that had as exceptionally bad first three weeks as the Texans and then went on to perform very well. If you can't, your point has no merit.
Yes, I think he was talking about progression, getting better by both the players and the coaches. Hence the comment about Bush not having to start over from square one. Solid comment By Winston IMO.
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Old 06-28-2010   #11
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
From the Winston quotes:


Normally, I don't mind when a fan says this. But I don't think a coach or player, or even a "reporter" should say something as asinine.

It wouldn't be good for 4th in the league, unless you kick out the first 3 games of everyone else's schedule.

Or kick out the worst 3 performances...

You have to do one or the other, if you're going to say "...good for 4th best in the league." Unless you're a casual fan on a message board, or a blog that provides "questionable" data.

JMO
If the premise is that the Texans were a top 5 run stopper in 2009, then of course it's silly.

But, if the premise is that the Texans' defense was playing lights out after X point in the season, then the numbers speak for themselves.

The long play plagued the Texans' defense at the beginning of last season. The optimists noted that if the defense could cut down on the long plays it would be a good defense. There were a number of peripheral stats (i.e. TFL) that supported that idea. The pessimists countered by saying you can't ignore plays that happened.

Well, it turns out both were right. The early season defense was plagued by long plays. But, when the defense figured how to cut those plays out, and they did, they turned in the numbers Winston is citing, which is an indication of how you should expect the team to play over the course of the entire next season (which is his point).

Last edited by nero THE zero; 06-28-2010 at 04:02 PM.
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Old 06-28-2010   #12
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
From the Winston quotes:


Normally, I don't mind when a fan says this. But I don't think a coach or player, or even a "reporter" should say something as asinine.

It wouldn't be good for 4th in the league, unless you kick out the first 3 games of everyone else's schedule.

Or kick out the worst 3 performances...


You have to do one or the other, if you're going to say "...good for 4th best in the league." Unless you're a casual fan on a message board, or a blog that provides "questionable" data.

JMO

"Asinine" would be if Winston cherry-picked three or four really bad games from the schedule and then argued they were very good with those exceptions. That argument is different than saying that once Pollard hit the field, Cushing had a couple games under his belt, and Frank Bush got a feel for calling games the defense showed how good it can be and became proficient run stoppers.

I do agree with you about how silly some of those arguments can be. I always enjoy the expert analyst during football games that show the stat of the team's record when it runs the ball 30+ times... and act as if the key to winning is simply to hand off the ball 30 times, totally ignoring the reality that those stats exist because the team has a lead and pads the rushing carry stats while icing the ball in the 4th quarter. The analyst would lead you to believe that the coach should dial up more handoff when down 24-0.
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Old 06-28-2010   #13
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

[quote=nero THE zero;1461958]If the premise is that the Texans were a top 5 run stopper in 2009, then of course it's silly.

But, if the premise is that the Texans' defense was playing lights out after X point in the season, then the numbers speak for themselves.

The long play plagued the Texans' defense at the beginning of last season. The optimists pointed out that if the defense could just cut down on the long plays, it would be pretty stout. There were a number of peripheral stats (i.e. TFL) that supported the idea that the defense was pretty good minus the long play. The pessimists countered by saying that you can't ignore plays that happened.

Well, turns out both were right. The early season defense was plagued by long plays. But, when the defense figured how to cut those plays out, which they did, you get the numbers that Winston is offering, which is an indication of how you should expect the team to play over the course of the entire next season (which is his point).[/QUOTE]


Cushing was a significant factor in stuffing the middle last year. How the defense with Cushing vs without Cushing functions is yet to be determined.
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Old 06-28-2010   #14
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

Quote:
Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
Cushing was a significant factor in stuffing the middle last year. How the defense with Cushing vs without Cushing functions is yet to be determined.
It was a combination of Cushing, Pollard, and a simplification in/familiarization with scheme.

The defense won't be as good without Cushing as it will be with, obviously. Should be interesting to see how much of a difference he makes.
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Old 06-28-2010   #15
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

Is the stat in question calculated as the Texans' last 13 games against the rest of the league's whole season? Or is it every team's last 13 games? I have a feeling it's the first and wonder how, if at all, that stat changes giving everyone the same 13 game time frame. Or better yet, take out the worst 3 performances of the whole season (because I think it's pretty clear that the worst 3 were the first 3) for every team and recompare numbers. I sense a project coming on....
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Old 06-28-2010   #16
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeKiller View Post
Is the stat in question calculated as the Texans' last 13 games against the rest of the league's whole season? Or is it every team's last 13 games? I have a feeling it's the first and wonder how, if at all, that stat changes giving everyone the same 13 game time frame. Or better yet, take out the worst 3 performances of the whole season (because I think it's pretty clear that the worst 3 were the first 3) for every team and recompare numbers. I sense a project coming on....
Take any 13 games for any team, and if the defense is holding the opposition to 87.6 yds per game, that is going to rank pretty high.
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Old 06-28-2010   #17
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeKiller View Post
Is the stat in question calculated as the Texans' last 13 games against the rest of the league's whole season? Or is it every team's last 13 games? I have a feeling it's the first and wonder how, if at all, that stat changes giving everyone the same 13 game time frame. Or better yet, take out the worst 3 performances of the whole season (because I think it's pretty clear that the worst 3 were the first 3) for every team and recompare numbers. I sense a project coming on....
That's silly! The point of the comparison exercise regarding the Texans' defense after week 3 is not to literally rank them versus each NFL team but simply to note their dramatic improvement and how they played over the last 3 months. It's quite possible that they would rank even higher if you dropped the entire NFL's first three games, since some of them surely had some of their better weeks over the early part of the season.

The reality is that this is a new season and a new team. All statistical analysis of the '09 season can really do is help identify areas of potential strengths and weaknesses. Based on the '09 performance, clearly there is reason for optimism regarding the rushing defense. That being said, if Indy and Washington have 150 yard rushing games against us in week one and two, I won't be claiming that we are a very good run defense based on games 4-16 of the previous season.
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Old 06-28-2010   #18
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

I also want to say, that he had an interview with SIRIUS BLITZ this afternoon too on NFL RADIO.
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Old 06-28-2010   #19
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

Great work except he made a mistake..Kurt Warner started in the Arena League, not NFL Europe. So bad example for his minor league argument.
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Old 06-28-2010   #20
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Default Re: Winston guest-writes for MMQB

Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeKiller View Post
Is the stat in question calculated as the Texans' last 13 games against the rest of the league's whole season? Or is it every team's last 13 games? I have a feeling it's the first and wonder how, if at all, that stat changes giving everyone the same 13 game time frame. Or better yet, take out the worst 3 performances of the whole season (because I think it's pretty clear that the worst 3 were the first 3) for every team and recompare numbers. I sense a project coming on....


Quote:
Originally Posted by JB View Post
Take any 13 games for any team, and if the defense is holding the opposition to 87.6 yds per game, that is going to rank pretty high.
I have no doubt that our best 13 games vs anybody's best 13 games will be favorable to us. I have no problem, with anyone saying the Texans limited their opponent to 87.6 yards per game over the last 13.

I just think it is irresponsible for someone in the media to throw out that it would be good for 4th in the league.

If it were prefaced with "Over that same period... " or to say that it is "comparable..." maybe. But to just throw it out, as "good for fourth best in the league." I think it is irresponsible. Asinine might have been a little strong.

Bottom line, 87.6 yards/game over 13 weeks, is not good for 4th place in a 16 week season.

I understand what he means... I just think it is irresponsible the way he said it.
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