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Old 03-11-2005   #1
powda
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Default TEXANS: a look in the mirror.

one of the more important things teams regularly do is evaluate themselves. where can we improve?..whos a corner stone player, whos solid, who can be upgraded, and whos a liability? as the newest team in the league i think an honest evaluation of ourselves is more crucial then it is for other teams. needless to say, when we watch players in a game we dont always know what their exact responsibilities are so its tough to say with some players how often they actually blow their assignments. that applies to practice as well. what we do know is what happens on the field (player performance-often objective), the investment a team has made in a player (draft value = relative expectation) , player impact on the cap, and statistically we have some indication of the teams strong suits and weak points (ofcourse this can be scheme related etc...rather the indicative of player performance). other issues to consider include a players injury and durability status as well as where a player is in his carreer (is he young and expected to improve vs. "hes reached his ceiling and his performance will decline from this point in his carreer".)

all in all there is no exact science to evaluating a team ,but my goal in this thread is to get consensus opinions on particular players. ive choosen a format similar to kiper's rather then some kind of number system (to damn indepth and time consumeing). my focus is mainly on starters and "key reserves" rather than players who never get playing time. as i said a lot of this is objective and i dont expect anyone to agree with all of it...

offense :

quareterbacks

david carr - on the rise- potential to be one of the top tier qbs in the league with more help and consistent line play. he's not close to his ceiling yet.
tony banks - status quo- quality backup whos been solid when given playing time. he's a keeper until we get a better feel for ragone as long as he dosent want outrageous money. he's reached his ceiling.
dave ragone - status quo- didnt perform well when given an oppurtunity ,but he has a ceiling he hasnt reached. he was a 3rd round selection but is currently cheap against the cap. this is a player at a postion that will require another year or 2 for an honest evaluation.

running backs

domanick davis - on the rise- currently cheap against the cap, with a quality ceiling. should only get better ,but he does have durability issues. great value for the team so far.
tony hollings - falling - cheap against the cap and he has a high ceiling ,but he hasnt performed up to his 2nd round selection. he also has durability issues. he could change his status fast but up to this point in his carreer hes not been a good value for the team.
jonathan wells - falling - solid special teams player who is cheap against the cap. he showed drastic improvment last year...if he can duplicate that improvment this year he'll be a good value. still needs to prove he can be that bruiser capers wants to secure his postion on this team. i list him as falling because i think he showed improvment to late in his carreer with us. i expect him to compete with a draftee for a spot on the team.

recievers

andre johnson -on the rise - superstar and a corner stone player.
jabar gaffney - on the rise- performance improved last year, high ceiling, and not a bad value for the team. i think this will be a good year for him though he'll never be a superstar.
derrick armstrong - on the rise- the upcomming season should be a good one for him.
corey bradford - fallen - lameduck player.overpaid under performer. wont be on the roster next season.

tightends

billy miller -falling- he needs to reemerge as a downfield threat.
mark bruner -falling- overpaid. well past his prime.
bennie joppru -falling- horrible value so far and has to prove his worth this season.

offensive line

seth wand - status quo- cheap against the cap. high ceiling despite "occasional" pass protection issues. good value for a 3rd rounder so far.
chester pitts -status quo- cheap agaist the cap. he hasnt reached his ceiling ,and i expect him to get better considering he played a new postion last year (disagree, i know you want to)
steve mckinney - falling fast- overpaid, under performer who reached his ceiling long ago. cancer on the line whos made the guards look worse then what i think they are.
zach weigert - falling- overpaid. durability issues. i think he'll perform much better this season but so far hes been a bad value for the team.
todd wade -status quo- overpaid. had some nagging injuries. when hes healthy he did played well. should perform better this season. should be solid for years to come.
milford brown - on the rise- played poorly in the cleveland game because of injury. played ok previous to that. hes cheap against the cap...high ceiling considering he was a 6th round pick. i expect him to get better and maybe break into the starting lineup soon. good value so far. (disagree)
fred weary -falling- bust and a carreer back up. ok against the cap but he hasnt played up to his 3rd round selection.

deffense :

defensive line

gary walker -falling- critical of the team, durability issues, overpaid ,and hes reached his ceiling. bad value for the team since signing his contract. he may play better then last season this season ,but his best years are behind him. (disagree i know you want to)
seth payne - status quo- durrability issues. bad value for the team in the last 2 seasons but i expect him to rebound. he's reached his ceiling.
robarie smith -on the rise- expensive but he should play better with a year under his belt in this system. he may have reached his ceiling but i expect him to be solid for years to come.
jerry deloach -status quo- not flashy, just solid enough. ok value for the team.

linebackers

jason babin - on the rise- i expect big things from him. should become a corner stone.
morlon greenwood -on the rise- i expect big things from him and his coverage abilities should enable us to blitz a bit more often. not cheap however.
kaliee wong -on the rise- comming off his best season with us. probably reached his ceiling and not cheap however.
antwan peek -on the rise- monsterous ceiling. if only he could round out his game he could be a beast-----HAS TO FOCUS. cheap against the cap. i would like to see him become a corner stone player. wont be cheap for much longer.
jay foreman -fallen- lameduck player. bad against the cap. dosent fit into our future.
jaime sharper -falling fast- lameduck player. evidently he priced himself out of the texans plans. the team had to have assurances he would be here ,and sharper couldnt provide that. if he has to be replaced do it now instead of next year.
charlie anderson -on the rise- good speed. good ceiling. good value. i expect him to emerge by his 3rd season.
deshon polk -status quo- what other depth do we have in the middle. has a bigger role in special teams but performed well enough with regular playing time.

secondary

dunta robinson -on the rise- superstar. corner stone player for years to come.
arron glenn -status quo- recent injury troubles. tough on the cap if he dosent play a little better this season. his best years are behind him. consumate profesional however and one of the "faces of the franchise".
glen earl - on the rise- high ceiling. good value. im hopefull he'll become a cornerstone player.
marcus coleman - on the rise- not cheap and he wont become a better athlete then what he has been. what he will do is become a better safety then what he was. i think he'll have a great upcomming season ,and i want to consider him a cornerstone player.
demarcus faggins -on the rise- not bad against the cap. improving player who hasnt reached his ceiling just yet. solid value for the team.
jason simmons -status quo- not bad against the cap. solid value. will probably never emerge from his role now but i liked what he did last season.
lewis sanders -on the rise? -will he become the next kenny wright or take the role of nickleback from faggins? evidently managment likes him and every browns fan i know has good things to say about him.

well there you have it. i know i missed a lot of names and my opinions may be misguided on a lot of players BUT as i said this is all objective. my aim is to get your opinons. perhaps after we have a consensus we can use this as a measuring stick for how accurately our opinions compare to the texans personel moves. its fun to play gm...but in a post this long its hell on the fingers.
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Old 03-11-2005   #2
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looks good powda, i'll comment on it later
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Old 03-11-2005   #3
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There are only a few players that you and I differ.
Faggins: I agree that he hasn't reached his ceiling yet, and he's a very good value. But I don't think his ceiling is much higher than where he's at now. He'll be a serviceable backup that could start in a pinch, but not a good solution longterm.

I noticed you didn't mention Starling. I think he's got a very high ceiling from what little I've seen of him. He has the possibility to become anything from a very good backup to a reliable #2 WR and a consistant big-play threat with his speed. I think he won't realize his potential anytime soon, but I hope to see him on the field in 4 WR sets this next season. Look for him to make a push into the top 3 in another year or two.

Very interesting post, and I can see why you left off some players. Pretty fair evaluations overall though.
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Old 03-11-2005   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texasguy346
There are only a few players that you and I differ.
Faggins: I agree that he hasn't reached his ceiling yet, and he's a very good value. But I don't think his ceiling is much higher than where he's at now. He'll be a serviceable backup that could start in a pinch, but not a good solution longterm.

I noticed you didn't mention Starling. I think he's got a very high ceiling
i actually think of faggins as a player on the rise because of his drastic improvment last year and his effect on the cap. to my knowledge hes had no serious injuries and hes still very young. i agree 100% that hes almost reached his ceiling----(wich is why i said "just yet".) infact ive been critical of faggins elsewhere on this board. but he is servicible in a pinch. i also think the coaches favor him and his workman like attitude wich played a small role in my evaluation. and honestly---i dont want him to take over glenn's role.

as for starling...i know hes got a great ceiling but i dont see him getting a real oppurtunity just yet to show his worth wich is why i didnt include him. i think the texans will draft a reciever and that will have a big effect on what we do with starling. i'd like to think your right.
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Old 03-11-2005   #5
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Great post powda. Just a few thoughts off the top of my head:

Quote:
Originally Posted by powda
tony banks - status quo- quality backup whos been solid when given playing time. he's a keeper until we get a better feel for ragone as long as he dosent want outrageous money. he's reached his ceiling.
Tony looked good, not great, but good in 2003. In training camp for the 2004 season he looked horrible. Mixed feeling about him for the future even if he does want to return. Unless the Texans are in the playoff hunt I would rather see Ragone or Symmons come in for Carr because they have plenty to learn and Banks had hit his ceiling.

Quote:
zach weigert - falling- overpaid. durability issues. i think he'll perform much better this season but so far hes been a bad value for the team.
todd wade -status quo- overpaid. had some nagging injuries. when hes healthy he did played well. should perform better this season. should be solid for years to come.
Weigert had a very good 2003 season (best OLmen that season) and then an underwhelming injury plagued 2004. Wade's play was also affected by injuries, but that has not been a problem at all for him prior to last year so hopefully will not be in the future. A tremendous amount of improvement could come to the OL next year if these two can just stay healthy.

Quote:
seth payne - status quo- durrability issues. bad value for the team in the last 2 seasons but i expect him to rebound. he's reached his ceiling.
robarie smith -on the rise- expensive but he should play better with a year under his belt in this system. he may have reached his ceiling but i expect him to be solid for years to come.
Not sure either of these guys have actually reached their ceiling yet. Prior to his injury in 2003 Payne was playing significantly better than he did in 2002. With a year and a half behind him on the knee hopefully we can get some time out of him at the level he was playing in 2003. Smith had less of an impact than I expected early last year, but in the last third of the season really seemed to come a long way IMO. He may still have room for improvement and certainly should put in the level of performance from the end of last season throughout the next few years.
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Old 03-11-2005   #6
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Some good analysis, but I was really down on Aaron Glenn last year. Was he injured the entire year? He looked completely lost against some WR's and made Dunta look fantastic. Not to be an Aggie-basher, but I'm ready to let Aaron Glenn and Steve McKinlney go. They have become overpaid weaknesses for the team. A new center is a priority in my mind. If Aaron Glenn can rebound this year it still may be too late at this stage in his career. I wouldn't be surprised if the Texans draft a 2nd or 3rd round corner and try to work on a replacement. Faggins is good, but isn't long term.
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Old 03-11-2005   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by powda
recievers

andre johnson -on the rise - superstar and a corner stone player.
jabar gaffney - on the rise- performance improved last year, high ceiling, and not a bad value for the team. i think this will be a good year for him though he'll never be a superstar.
derrick armstrong - on the rise- the upcomming season should be a good one for him.
I agree with this assessment. Which makes me wonder why some feel the Texans should burn another #1 pick on a WR. How much better do these guys get with more time to work downfield & uncover?
Quote:
Originally Posted by powda
milford brown - on the rise- played poorly in the cleveland game because of injury. played ok previous to that. hes cheap against the cap...high ceiling considering he was a 6th round pick. i expect him to get better and maybe break into the starting lineup soon. good value so far. (disagree)
Yeah, I disagree. I can't see Brown as anything but an injury-prone reserve lineman at this point. I'll be puzzled if the Texans can't find someone in the draft to take Brown's roster spot.
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Old 03-11-2005   #8
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i thought brown played well enough previous to his injury. i'll admit i didnt see flashes of greatness but i was encouraged considering his playing time and years of experience. he's cheap. he's young. he hasnt reached his ceiling ,and to my knowledge he hasnt had a serious injury. i think he's a good value to the team right now ,and i may be mistaken but there was talk of him starting at one point durring the training camp.
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Old 03-11-2005   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sulli60
Some good analysis, but I was really down on Aaron Glenn last year. Was he injured the entire year? He looked completely lost against some WR's and made Dunta look fantastic. Not to be an Aggie-basher, but I'm ready to let Aaron Glenn and Steve McKinlney go. They have become overpaid weaknesses for the team. A new center is a priority in my mind. If Aaron Glenn can rebound this year it still may be too late at this stage in his career. I wouldn't be surprised if the Texans draft a 2nd or 3rd round corner and try to work on a replacement. Faggins is good, but isn't long term.

HAHA did you watch gleen from 2003 to 2004 ?? I mean he actually had a good 04 season snagging 5 ints, and he made a bunch of good open field tackles all year long and STAYED HEALTHY !! So i dont see how you can say u were down on A.G performance last season !?!?!?!?
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Old 03-11-2005   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by powda
i thought brown played well enough previous to his injury...
To my knowledge, Brown only saw action last season in the final 2 games. In those games, Milford had 4 penalties & allowed 2 sacks. I admit that Brown looked like a good run blocker early in both games, but his pass protection was lacking. As far as a serious injury, Brown injured his knee in the 2nd week of the '03 season (same game that put Payne on the IR). Milford made it back later that season, but was placed on the IR the last week of the season for the same knee.

I don't know, the guy has seen action on the line in 5 games the past 3 seasons. If I were to categorize Brown in Kiper's terminology, I'd have to go with "falling".
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Old 03-11-2005   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucky
Brown injured his knee in the 2nd week of the '03 season (same game that put Payne on the IR). Milford made it back later that season, but was placed on the IR the last week of the season for the same knee.

I don't know, the guy has seen action on the line in 5 games the past 3 seasons. If I were to categorize Brown in Kiper's terminology, I'd have to go with "falling".
fair enough. thats the purpose of this ofcourse. i guess i have a higher opinion of him. i thought he played in more games ,and i wasnt aware of the injuries...i knew he'd had a couple of injuries but didnt remember anything signifigant (the knee injuries and time on ir.)

i do know he can play center as well as guard and perhaps i value him more for that then i should.

also, wasnt he ineligible in his first season with us for whatever reason due to the supplemental draft...(im drawing a blank here but i feel like im forgetting something in that first season that prevented him from playing with us....... ).
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Old 03-11-2005   #12
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in regard to the recieving squad :

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucky
I agree with this assessment. Which makes me wonder why some feel the Texans should burn another #1 pick on a WR. How much better do these guys get with more time to work downfield & uncover?
have the texans themselves ever indicated an intrest in aquiring another reciever? theres been plenty of speculation by the fans and the media....but the texans themselves have never shown an intrest in any free agent reciever or spoke of recievers in the draft...

im starting to think this is a need we conjured up on our own. the team may address it in the 3rd round or later but only on a best player available basis. i think overall they may feel like its something that can wait for another offseason.

----------------------edit- 3-12------------------------

http://www.houstontexans.com/fan_zon...ead.php?t=7262

score!
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Last edited by powda; 03-12-2005 at 08:57 AM.
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Old 03-12-2005   #13
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Old 03-12-2005   #14
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Nice job! I'm hoping Payne and Walker rebound; Joppru becomes a stud everydown TE; Gaffney or Alexander becomes a solid #2; Milford Brown works on his pass protect/concentration; Ragone develops; Babin develops more moves and becomes demon OLB; Peak starts and becomes controlled chaos for other offenses; Earl grabs the reins at SS and makes our last draft's lust for S. Taylor seem foolish; and we have our best draft yet!
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Old 03-12-2005   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Texan in Japan
Nice job! I'm hoping Payne and Walker rebound; Joppru becomes a stud everydown TE; Gaffney or Alexander becomes a solid #2; Milford Brown works on his pass protect/concentration; Ragone develops; Babin develops more moves and becomes demon OLB; Peak starts and becomes controlled chaos for other offenses; Earl grabs the reins at SS and makes our last draft's lust for S. Taylor seem foolish; and we have our best draft yet!
Stop calling the man Alexander! His name is Derrick Armstrong LoL! I remember when the sports announcers on ESPN did that.
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Old 03-13-2005   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Texan in Japan
Nice job! I'm hoping Payne and Walker rebound; Joppru becomes a stud everydown TE; Gaffney or Alexander becomes a solid #2; Milford Brown works on his pass protect/concentration; Ragone develops; Babin develops more moves and becomes demon OLB; Peak starts and becomes controlled chaos for other offenses; Earl grabs the reins at SS and makes our last draft's lust for S. Taylor seem foolish; and we have our best draft yet!
and a miillion dollars will fall from the sky...jennifer aniston turns up on my doorstep...carr throws superbowl winning TD to johnson... BEEP BEEP BEEP wake up, time for work... daydreaming is fun, but thats all it is in pro-sports. not that i dont think we'll have a decent season, just not championship material just yet.
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Old 03-13-2005   #17
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Quote:
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and a miillion dollars will fall from the sky...jennifer aniston turns up on my doorstep...carr throws superbowl winning TD to johnson... BEEP BEEP BEEP wake up, time for work... daydreaming is fun, but thats all it is in pro-sports. not that i dont think we'll have a decent season, just not championship material just yet.
"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today." James Dean

I don't think any of my rermarks are unrealistic ... as fans we should be optimistic! I never said anything about a championship season, just hoping for improvement from some of our folks who should be stepping up next year.

BTW, Aniston is really not all that, think bigger!
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Old 03-13-2005   #18
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Originally Posted by AndreJ
Stop calling the man Alexander! His name is Derrick Armstrong LoL! I remember when the sports announcers on ESPN did that.
It was late, sun was in my eyes, uh ... my bad!
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Old 03-13-2005   #19
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Originally Posted by texasguy346
There are only a few players that you and I differ.
Faggins: I agree that he hasn't reached his ceiling yet, and he's a very good value. But I don't think his ceiling is much higher than where he's at now. He'll be a serviceable backup that could start in a pinch, but not a good solution longterm.

I noticed you didn't mention Starling. I think he's got a very high ceiling from what little I've seen of him. He has the possibility to become anything from a very good backup to a reliable #2 WR and a consistant big-play threat with his speed. I think he won't realize his potential anytime soon, but I hope to see him on the field in 4 WR sets this next season. Look for him to make a push into the top 3 in another year or two.

Very interesting post, and I can see why you left off some players. Pretty fair evaluations overall though.

heck, i think faggins could be a starter. he played well against marvin harrison the last game of the 2003 season. he has made some big plays, including the one of which i have my wallpaper of....where he is standing on the wall in front of the bullpen holding up a finger after returning a byron leftwich pass for a td interception.
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Old 03-13-2005   #20
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Originally Posted by Texan in Japan
Nice job! I'm hoping Payne and Walker rebound; Joppru becomes a stud everydown TE; Gaffney or Alexander becomes a solid #2; Milford Brown works on his pass protect/concentration; Ragone develops; Babin develops more moves and becomes demon OLB; Peak starts and becomes controlled chaos for other offenses; Earl grabs the reins at SS and makes our last draft's lust for S. Taylor seem foolish; and we have our best draft yet!
well at least ur optimistic
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