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Old 05-27-2010   #41
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

I think in building a team, as far as schedule goes, you know you play against teams in your division twice each year and of course that is the focus. Then as you play different teams you go with your coach's philosophy of offense (ZBS, Power, two TEs, whatever) and same with defense. Your offense should be able to score on any team & defense stop any team. A player slipping, missing a block, fumbling or a QB throwing just out of reach is football and causes all of us heartburn. We just have to get the best players we can at each position with good back up. The week before the game is when tweaking for the opponent occurs. It is then a chess match. I do not pay much attention to the schedule and have a difficult time with pre-season predictions. Eric Winston said last season when questioned about effectiveness of ZBS in Red Zone "if we (each player) do what we are supposed to, the play will work."
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Old 05-27-2010   #42
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I put this together, to take a closer look at the 2010 SoS. IMHO, it makes the case for those who say our schedule is going to kill us.


We have 7 games against teams who had a tougher schedule than we did in 2009, yet still improved their win percentage (over their 2008 win %). That includes the Jaguars.

Four games will be against teams that had a tougher schedule than we did in 2009, that finished better than we did. I don't like that. 2 games against the Colts, vs the Cowboys, vs the Eagles. One game, will be against the Jets, who finished as well as we did, yet had a tougher schedule.

We have three games against teams who had a stronger schedule in 2009, whose win percentage got worse vs their 2008 %. Giants, and the Titans (x2).

Raiders and Broncos pretty much went sideways, and they had easier schedules.

The Chargers kicked ass, with a slightly easier schedule than ours.

The most interesting opponent, I think, are the Ravens. They finished same as we did, but their schedule was much easier.
excellent stuff, thanks.

if there is one thing I'm not thats a mathmetician but this would indicate last season our opponnets winning % was 0.497% but based off last years records of teams the Texans will face in 2010 its more like 0.547%. which only tells the story based off last years data but does show an upward rising trend.

Colts will be the Colts, don't really see them changning much up or down they are the epitome of stablility.
Redskins are a differernt story, with revamped coaching staff, help in draft & a new franchise QB I would expect them to at least double their total wins frorm a year ago from 4-12 to 8-8 would improve winning percentage to 0.562% so wash out the rest & the schedule is actually harder than projected.

Bottom line as we move closer & closer to season opener I would just hope people be a little more realistic with expectations, I know its been frustrating & taken seemingly far too long to make the playoffs, but just a simple thing like a tougher schedule can make all the difference (completly out of the Texans control). So now all they can do is prepare, make adjustments & be who they & we as fans hope them to be...a playoff contender
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Old 05-27-2010   #43
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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Colts will be the Colts, don't really see them changning much up or down they are the epitome of stablility.
& Pats will be Pats. They'll win 10 games every year. I hope the Texans will be there one day. I feel the team is good enough, but to do that year in, and year out, the coach has to be there too. I think our coach can do that, I think that is what he's building, but we'll have to wait and see.
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Bottom line as we move closer & closer to season opener I would just hope people be a little more realistic with expectations

So.... what would be realistic? Our expectations for this team are a little higher than others. Ravens, Dolphins, and NYJets are considered better teams than ours, by our own fans. They faced tougher schedules, finished 9-7.... and everything is great. That won't be allowed for this franchise... no excuses.
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Old 05-27-2010   #44
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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& Pats will be Pats. They'll win 10 games every year. I hope the Texans will be there one day. I feel the team is good enough, but to do that year in, and year out, the coach has to be there too. I think our coach can do that, I think that is what he's building, but we'll have to wait and see.


So.... what would be realistic? Our expectations for this team are a little higher than others. Ravens, Dolphins, and NYJets are considered better teams than ours, by our own fans. They faced tougher schedules, finished 9-7.... and everything is great. That won't be allowed for this franchise... no excuses.
I beleive 10-6 is both realistic & attainable even with one of the most difficult schedules, I expect the Texans to be much improved despite only a one game increase in wins.
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Old 05-27-2010   #45
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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I beleive 10-6 is both realistic & attainable even with one of the most difficult schedules, I expect the Texans to be much improved despite only a one game increase in wins.
It's not just 1 game though... we're playing most of the better teams in the league next year.
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Old 05-27-2010   #46
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

hasent the cowboys played here twice already in the RS ??????
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Old 05-27-2010   #47
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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hasent the cowboys played here twice already in the RS ??????
yes. Our first regular season game in 2002, and a preseason game last year, or the year before.


Reliant will be packed.
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Old 05-27-2010   #48
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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hasent the cowboys played here twice already in the RS ??????
No, just once in the regular season
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Old 05-27-2010   #49
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

This will be the 3rd reg season meeting between HOU and DAL. 2nd time at Reliant.
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Old 05-28-2010   #50
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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It's not just 1 game though... we're playing most of the better teams in the league next year.
I love the fact the Texans are playing premier NFL name brands instead of past seasons non divisional foes scheduled. Not only do I expect the Texans to compete they must compete there is no other option, even with one hand (Cushing) tied behind their back. While the season is still some time off its hard not to look @ the docket of match-ups facing Texans.

Would y'all be happy with 10-6 factoring in the NFL toughest schedule?

Would y'all be happy if the Texans (regardless of record) just made the playoffs?

Would y'all be happy if the Texans won the division but lost against the wildcard winner?

Or does Kubiak & Texans have to do more?
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Old 05-28-2010   #51
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

I'm pretty sure if Kubes makes the playoffs he'll be safe from "the turk" whether fans like it or not.
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Old 05-28-2010   #52
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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I love the fact the Texans are playing premier NFL name brands instead of past seasons non divisional foes scheduled. Not only do I expect the Texans to compete they must compete there is no other option, even with one hand (Cushing) tied behind their back. While the season is still some time off its hard not to look @ the docket of match-ups facing Texans.

Would y'all be happy with 10-6 factoring in the NFL toughest schedule?
Y'all?? I've got rose colored contacts and steel blue blood in my veins....... I think we're saying the same thing. I would consider a 10-6 record against this schedule a big improvement vs 9-7 against last years schedule. Heck, truth be told, 9-7 against this schedule would be an improvement over last years 9-7. But some people will never see it that way.

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I'm pretty sure if Kubes makes the playoffs he'll be safe from "the turk" whether fans like it or not.
I think we all agree with this, but what if you have to win 12 games to make the play-offs, and we only win 11?
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Old 05-28-2010   #53
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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I think we all agree with this, but what if you have to win 12 games to make the play-offs, and we only win 11?
Then it would be like the second time in NFL history that that has happened (Actually I don't think there's ever been a playoff bracket that all had the WC's as 12 - 4 or better without winning their division).

Burn that bridge if it ever got erected I say.

EDIT: Yeah I'm not seeing it really. Maybe some ne'er do well will come correct me if I'm wrong.
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Old 05-28-2010   #54
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Default Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss
Heck, truth be told, 9-7 against this schedule would be an improvement over last years 9-7. But some people will never see it that way.
Interesting. Do you see last year's 9-7 as an improvement over the previous year's 8-8?

I think the consistent answer would be "no" since the 9-7 schedule was easier. Not only that, it didn't have all those "unfair" long road trip and hurricane impacts that excused the 8-8 year. As you said, "But some people will never see it that way".

I don't expect a consistent answer though. I look forward to some spin.
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Old 05-28-2010   #55
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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Interesting. Do you see last year's 9-7 as an improvement over the previous year's 8-8?

I think the consistent answer would be "no" since the 9-7 schedule was easier. Not only that, it didn't have all those "unfair" long road trip and hurricane impacts that excused the 8-8 year. As you said, "But some people will never see it that way".

I don't expect a consistent answer though. I look forward to some spin.
I don't think there is any question that the defense was improved. After the first 3 games, that is.
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Old 05-28-2010   #56
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Default Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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I don't think there is any question that the defense was improved. After the first 3 games, that is.
I think they improved in a number of ways. Underachievement cancelled most of it out though.

I posed my question to see if TKyss would hold himself to the same "but some people" standard that be quipped about.
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Old 05-28-2010   #57
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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Interesting. Do you see last year's 9-7 as an improvement over the previous year's 8-8?

I think the consistent answer would be "no" since the 9-7 schedule was easier. Not only that, it didn't have all those "unfair" long road trip and hurricane impacts that excused the 8-8 year. As you said, "But some people will never see it that way".

I don't expect a consistent answer though. I look forward to some spin.
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There is your spin. The schedule turned out to be tougher than we thought. 8 games on our schedule were against teams that finished 2009 better than they had in 2008. Only 4 games were against teams who finished worse than 2008. Two of those games were against the Titans who went 13-3 in 2008. Also, alot of people (especially around here) want to count the Jaguars out. But they had a tough schedule, and finished .500. They may not be as bad as people think.

Another thing. People talk about our schedule, as if it were extremely easy. It may have been the easiest schedule we ever had, but it wasn't an easy schedule.
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Old 05-28-2010   #58
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Default Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss

Quote:
There is your spin. The schedule turned out to be tougher than we thought. 8 games on our schedule were against teams that finished 2009 better than they had in 2008. Only 4 games were against teams who finished worse than 2008. Two of those games were against the Titans who went 13-3 in 2008. Also, alot of people (especially around here) want to count the Jaguars out. But they had a tough schedule, and finished .500. They may not be as bad as people think.

Another thing. People talk about our schedule, as if it were extremely easy. It may have been the easiest schedule we ever had, but it wasn't an easy schedule.
So if last year's schedule was so tough, they get no credit for that much tougher a schedule this year, right? I guess you should retract the original statement I quoted...

Be careful now, I may get queasy with this next spin...
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Old 05-28-2010   #59
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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So if last year's schedule was so tough, they get no credit for that much tougher a schedule this year, right? I guess you should retract the original statement I quoted...

Be careful now, I may get queasy with this next spin...
Our 2009 opponents finished 2008 with an avg W/L % of .492 They finished 2009 with a .504. Not a big difference, but still different. Our team finished 2008 with a .500, and we finished 2009 with a .563 so we improved as a team despite our tougher schedule. ( & I only mean tougher in that our opponents were better in 2009 than they were in 2008)

Our 2010 schedule is still tougher .547, so we should still get credit.

Besides, if you saw improvement in our team from '08 to '09, you aren't most people.
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Old 05-28-2010   #60
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

For those guys who think we should easily be able to secure a wild-card... think about this.

Chargers, Broncos, Steelers, Jets, Dolphins, Cheifs and Bills play a schedule of .500 or worse.

Ravens schedule is .508, barely over 500.

That's 8 AFC teams playing schedules 500 and below.
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