Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

[Goldensilence]

Originally Posted by beerlover

this is not about Kubiak, the players or anyone else giving away games, its about weighing in on a difficult schedule imposed on Texans along with suspension of Brian Cushing which the Texans must overcome to be successful, internal (for a change) its external.

As a fan & for the players we all must look forward to the challenge. Being a Texan we like nothing better than to compete against the best, the national spotlight will be upon our team, how they respond & compete against the Colts, Redskins & Cowboys (before Cushing even steps on the field) will define this season, the future of Kubiak his staff & players alike.

Wait what? No this all IS totally about Gary Kubiak and his players. This is HIS roster. This is HIS staff.

Sure the schedule looks tough and it probably will be, but it's all on Gary to prepare his players as best as he can and up to him to make good in game decisions. It's up to the players as well individually to be in the best physical shape and prepare the best they can as well.

Sorry, I just can't buy how some people are already trying to divorce Gary's ability to shape a roster, call plays and have his guys ready to play, away from a tough schedule and Brian Cushing's absence.

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by Goldensilence

Wait what? No this all IS totally about Gary Kubiak and his players. This is HIS roster. This is HIS staff.

Sure the schedule looks tough and it probably will be, but it's all on Gary to prepare his players as best as he can and up to him to make good in game decisions. It's up to the players as well individually to be in the best physical shape and prepare the best they can as well.

Sorry, I just can't buy how some people are already trying to divorce Gary's ability to shape a roster, call plays and have his guys ready to play, away from a tough schedule and Brian Cushing's absence.

suggest you find another thread then to trash Kubiak, this is not about him its about the Texans 2010 schedule. don't see how you got all confused over that one but oh well

[Goldensilence]

Originally Posted by beerlover

suggest you find another thread then to trash Kubiak, this is not about him its about the Texans 2010 schedule. don't see how you got all confused over that one but oh well

Right because Gary Kubiak as the Texans HEAD COACH has nothing to do with the 2010 schedule?

Pardon me for thinking maybe he's supposed to be there on game day.

So Brian Cushing absence on the first four games of the season can be weighed in as factor that makes this tough schedule even tougher, but we can't talk about the head coach?

Dude read my posts. I'm not "trashing" Gary. I'm asking him to do his job and do it well. Like I'm the only one in this thread that has asked for that.

[ChampionTexan]

Originally Posted by beerlover

for the record:

09 hammered by Jets in season opener 7-24
08 hammered by Steelers in season opener 17-38
07 pounded KC not exactly a heavyweight 20-3
06 hammered by Eagles in season opener 10-24
05 hammerd by Buffalo in season opener 7-22
04 miffed by Chargers in season opener 20-27
03 squeeked by Dolphins (who have never beaten the Texans) in opener 21-20
02 of course the all time landmark victory over the Cowboys in franchise opening game 19-10


so what, we open against the Colts? the Texans record vs. Colts is 1-14. fast forward game 2 against Washington, now have a real weapon @ QB in Donovan McNabb along with Texans former OC Kyle Shanahan plus Mike who taught Kubiak a thing or two about the same system in Washington coming off a big game against the Cowboys. Then we get the Cowboys, coming into Relient needing to win all without Brian Cushing? I just find it very difficult given this early slate to rationalize how the Texans can come out with a winning record, including the next game against Oakland. the scheduling is predicting more hard times, like it or not.

the positive is going to be in week five when the Texans get the Giants @ home along with their best defensive player. if they finish strong like expected look for them to win 7 or 8 games, if they can just split the first two than should give em a 10-6 season. this will be my pre-season predicition based off the strength of schedule & impact of Cushing four game suspension

One thing that is different (whether it matters or not remains to be seen) is that our week one opponent is a team we are extremely familiar with. Kubiak has prepared for them 8 times as a HC - and even if you throw in the change at HC for the Colts (which has far less impact than most HC changes), he's prepared for them twice. Obviously, the record has been dismal, but I don't believe most of us think we were unprepared in the recent matchups. Yeah, it works both ways, and my point isn't that this gives us any sort of advantage. My point is that if you believe the coaching staff has been caught unaware from a strategy standpoint on opening weekend in years past, that should not be a reason/excuse/criticism this year. If you think they've not been properly motivated in openers past, maybe a divisional opponent will change that.

As far as the second game goes - again, it's not necessarily a good indicator of future outcomes, but the only time Kubiak has squared off against his former boss, he won pretty easily, and IMO, that was with a Texans team that wasn't as talented as the '10 version should be (Even sans Cushing), and against a Broncos team that was more talented than I believe the '10 Redskins will be.

In regard to Cushing's suspension, I've said before that we should be able to beat the Redskins and Raiders with or without Cushing. And yeah, it's possible that Cushing's suspension could cost us a win vs. Indy and/or Dallas, but given that neither of those games were going to be anything close to easy even with Cushing, we'll never really know what sort of impact Cushing's absence had on our record (unless we go 4-0 to start the season, in which case we'll know it had zero impact).

I see this as a team on the rise - maybe not as fast as most would like, but consistently, and steadily. If that trend doesn't continue in 2010, I'm not going to blame it on the schedule, I'm not going to blame it on a 4 game suspension for one guy, I'm not going to blame it on any injuries that may or may not occur over the course of the season. To quote a tired old cliche you play the hand your dealt. If the trend doesn't continue, or reverses, I will look at no outside/uncontrollable forces as the reason.

[El Tejano]

As for the whole bashing Kubiak thing, I don't think it's bashing Kubiak to say he needs to do a better job of coaching. A)It's true B) It's true for every game we play from here on out C) His getting the team prepared to play is going to be VERY crucial considering our teams circumstances of available players to qualifying for the playoffs. D) We lost to Indy last year because of when he elected to let the clock run down to the two minute warning when Moats fumbled. That's an example that if we got better in game decisions made, we have a better chance of winning.

Again, that' not bashing him. That's saying he's got to do his part and he along with everyone has to be on their A game. If we come out on the first day and look like we did against NYJ last year, then it will "be on him" and we don't want that again.

[Ole Miss Texan]

We can theoretically discuss Kubiak's abilities/inabilities as a Head Coach, Smith's ability as a GM, the Scheme this staff has implemented, player development and player skillsets, scouting, free agents, McNair being cheap, past failures and place blame on each an every one of them in every single thread on here. Football and all its aspects are so intricately weaved that each aspect of the team DIRECTLY effects all the others.

Secondary isn't up to snuff? Let's blame McNair for being cheap and not spending $12MM on an average CB or Kubiak for not getting a better secondary coach or the Defensive Line not getting enough pressure on the QB which exposes the secondary or our RB's for not establishing a running game that prolongs drives and eats up clock while our defense/secondary can rest or our Offensive Line for not being able to run block worth a damn and not opening any holes for the RBs or the Scouting department for not being able to scout players as well or find gems on the 2nd day that come in and become all pros in the 1st or 2nd season.

That stuff is all debatable on a higher level. Cushing gone the first 4 games is FACT. Certain players missing during the time due to injury is a FACT. Our schedule is FACT - set in stone.

[b0ng]

One thing that SoS doesn't take into account is changes the other 14 teams you play have gone through during the off-season. Marshall gone from the donkeys, Philly/Washington, no more fatty Russell, etc etc. It's just so silly to say "Oh this sched is too tough we are going 4-12!" Based on last seasons records.

[infantrycak]

Originally Posted by b0ng

One thing that SoS doesn't take into account is changes the other 14 teams you play have gone through during the off-season. Marshall gone from the donkeys, Philly/Washington, no more fatty Russell, etc etc. It's just so silly to say "Oh this sched is too tough we are going 4-12!" Based on last seasons records.

Yup. How is Shanahan going to use McNabb? It looks like he's trying to get every vet RB to throw at opposing teams possible whereas Reid essentially ignored running for a decade. How is the transition to a 3-4 going to go, particularly with a pissed off NT fighting off a paternity suit? Is Kolb going to step smoothly in for McNabb (and who the heck is their #1 RB) or is Reid going to start mixing in more Vick since they are paying so much for that little experiment?

[badboy]

I think everyone needs to read the thread again. Beerlover wanted to talk about the schedule and we should stick to that. Several things effect the record. Injuries, rookies, FAs, coaches, owner, strength and conditioning, etc. This thread is about the schedule.

[Goldensilence]

Originally Posted by badboy

I think everyone needs to read the thread again. Beerlover wanted to talk about the schedule and we should stick to that. Several things effect the record. Injuries, rookies, FAs, coaches, owner, strength and conditioning, etc. This thread is about the schedule.

JMO but, I think all the things you listed go hand in hand with the schedule.

Perhaps I should've clarified my stance. I don't know fully what other teams on our schedule are going to look like at this point in the off-season. As it progresses I think I'll get a better idea of what to expect from our first 4 games without Cushing and beyond.

In lieu of all of that, the bottom line is Gary's got to have HIS guys ready to go no matter who is healthy, not suspended, or any off the field issues surrounding the team.

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by badboy

I think everyone needs to read the thread again. Beerlover wanted to talk about the schedule and we should stick to that. Several things effect the record. Injuries, rookies, FAs, coaches, owner, strength and conditioning, etc. This thread is about the schedule.

excatly.

as is often the case everyone has their own agenda & thats fine. coaching has been a huge issue, no doubt about that but doesn't it seem like its being systematicly upgraded & improved? yes Kubiak has made mistakes & yes he's paid for them but its also part of a franchises growth.

internally discussing Texans I feel we as fans have just as good of understanding if not better than the national media. the reason I posted Eric Edholm article is it represents an outside national media perspective in regards to rest of the league. Mike Wilkening another Pro Football Weekly columnist already states that Vegas gives the edge to a Cowboys vs. Colts Superbowl, teams Texans open the year with.

I realize every team have their hurdles to vault over including the Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints http://www.profootballweekly.com/201...-thrill-saints but on paper even they do not compare to the Texans strength of schedule, well at least the Tacks are up there with us -

2010 Strength Of Schedule




Winning % Opp............. Total Wins Opp ......... Total Losses
Titans 0.547................ 140.......................... 116
Texans 0.547............... 140.......................... 116
Cowboys 0.543............. 139.......................... 117
Bengals 0.539............... 138.......................... 118
Jaguars 0.535............... 137.......................... 119
Patriots 0.531............... 136.......................... 120
Giants 0.527................. 135.......................... 121
Redskins 0.523.............. 134.......................... 122
Eagles 0.520................. 133.......................... 123
Browns 0.516................ 132.......................... 124
Colts 0.516................... 132.......................... 124

[Goldensilence]

Originally Posted by beerlover

excatly.

as is often the case everyone has their own agenda & thats fine. coaching has been a huge issue, no doubt about that but doesn't it seem like its being systematicly upgraded & improved? yes Kubiak has made mistakes & yes he's paid for them but its also part of a franchises growth.

internally discussing Texans I feel we as fans have just as good of understanding if not better than the national media. the reason I posted Eric Edholm article is it represents an outside national media perspective in regards to rest of the league. Mike Wilkening another Pro Football Weekly columnist already states that Vegas gives the edge to a Cowboys vs. Colts Superbowl, teams Texans open the year with.

I realize every team have their hurdles to vault over including the Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints http://www.profootballweekly.com/201...-thrill-saints but on paper even they do not compare to the Texans strength of schedule, well at least the Tacks are up there with us -

Perhaps I am a bit confused here. I mean what are we supposed to do? Talk about the schedule at face value?

Yes, at face value it's tied for the toughest schedule in the league this year. For the most part we play our hardest non-divisional games at home. At face value that's pretty much about all you can say really.

Now if you want the meat of a conversation you're going to have to get into other team's off-season acquisitions, injuries, coaching changes, players who retired, got released, or whatever. Obviously as well we don't know how this team or any other team yet is going to shape up so we have to base guesses or speculation to how a team will perform based on the prior year. All those things badboy listed are intimately tied with a team's schedule.

That as much goes for other teams as well as our own. I think even with last year's weak schedule it proved we have acquired enough talent to compete with just about anyone league wide. However, I think you'd be putting your head in the sand if you can't admit the coaching staff made some costly in game errors and some bad roster decisions.

Just because you're tired of hearing about the same questions or don't like the answers you're getting doesn't mean people have an agenda.

[Meloy]

Originally Posted by Goldensilence

JMO but, I think all the things you listed go hand in hand with the schedule.
Perhaps I should've clarified my stance. I don't know fully what other teams on our schedule are going to look like at this point in the off-season. As it progresses I think I'll get a better idea of what to expect from our first 4 games without Cushing and beyond.

In lieu of all of that, the bottom line is Gary's got to have HIS guys ready to go no matter who is healthy, not suspended, or any off the field issues surrounding the team.

Absolutely not GS. I understand what you are saying but that is not the topic of the thread. We could say if zero fans showed up it could effect outcome of the game but again not the topic.

[Meloy]

Originally Posted by Goldensilence

Perhaps I am a bit confused here. I mean what are we supposed to do? Talk about the schedule at face value?

Yes, at face value it's tied for the toughest schedule in the league this year. For the most part we play our hardest non-divisional games at home. At face value that's pretty much about all you can say really.

Now if you want the meat of a conversation you're going to have to get into other team's off-season acquisitions, injuries, coaching changes, players who retired, got released, or whatever. Obviously as well we don't know how this team or any other team yet is going to shape up so we have to base guesses or speculation to how a team will perform based on the prior year. All those things badboy listed are intimately tied with a team's schedule.

That as much goes for other teams as well as our own. I think even with last year's weak schedule it proved we have acquired enough talent to compete with just about anyone league wide. However, I think you'd be putting your head in the sand if you can't admit the coaching staff made some costly in game errors and some bad roster decisions.

Just because you're tired of hearing about the same questions or don't like the answers you're getting doesn't mean people have an agenda.

Using your thery we can't talk about any player for the entire year because no way we know if he will be hurt or end up in dog house like Bennett. Most of us realize that injuries, etc can happen but Beerlover wanted to talk about the schedule as we know it as if all starters will play. Like mocks, some think it is ridiculous to do what I do. Ok, stay out of my mock. No disrespect meant to you but think about it.

[Goldensilence]

Originally Posted by Meloy

Using your thery we can't talk about any player for the entire year because no way we know if he will be hurt or end up in dog house like Bennett. Most of us realize that injuries, etc can happen but Beerlover wanted to talk about the schedule as we know it as if all starters will play. Like mocks, some think it is ridiculous to do what I do. Ok, stay out of my mock. No disrespect meant to you but think about it.

Ok so my questions is what is there to talk about the schedule ITSELF other than well umm we play 16 games. The bye week comes at a good time. It's cool that we got a few prime times games. The Thursday than Monday night game gives us extra practice time.

I think you misunderstood me. When I said I don't know how teams are going to shape up, it is a growing process over the off-season as I get more information I'll get a better guess how things will effect teams we play. For example I'm curious to see how having possibly Jason Campbell as the starter in Oakland changes the dynamic of it as opposed to Frye.

My point has been if we're sticking strictly to talk of the schedule as opposed to players or coaches who will affect the schedule we're pretty limited to my first paragraph.

[junior]

our playoff chances comes down to one thing, Matt Schaub.

He had a great season but the one thing we have not done with him is win in division, he is an awful 2-11 as a starter and 2-9 in games he started and finished, even the old #8 thinks that sucks, I am not saying they are all his fault but for whatever reason he hasnt won in division play.

Look even deeper into division games under Kubiak we are 7-17

QB's starting divisions games under Kubiak

The old #8 3-3
Rosenfels 2-3
Schaub 2-11

These are just numbers and dont tell the whole story but Schaub has never beaten the Colts or Jags.

[thunderkyss]

I put this together, to take a closer look at the 2010 SoS. IMHO, it makes the case for those who say our schedule is going to kill us.


We have 7 games against teams who had a tougher schedule than we did in 2009, yet still improved their win percentage (over their 2008 win %). That includes the Jaguars.

Four games will be against teams that had a tougher schedule than we did in 2009, that finished better than we did. I don't like that. 2 games against the Colts, vs the Cowboys, vs the Eagles. One game, will be against the Jets, who finished as well as we did, yet had a tougher schedule.

We have three games against teams who had a stronger schedule in 2009, whose win percentage got worse vs their 2008 %. Giants, and the Titans (x2).

Raiders and Broncos pretty much went sideways, and they had easier schedules.

The Chargers kicked ass, with a slightly easier schedule than ours.

The most interesting opponent, I think, are the Ravens. They finished same as we did, but their schedule was much easier.

[thunderkyss]

Are there any mathmeticians out there who would know how to give the 2009 SoS and the 2009 results the proper weight so we can compare these numbers on a more apples to apples comparison?

[thunderkyss]

Here is another one, I know a lot of people won't like. This one shows our team, and a couple of others, with their 2009 regular season schedule, and the 2009 W/L% for 2009... It would be the actual W/L percentage for the year they played.


Using this method, it would appear our schedule was actually tougher than we thought, going into the year, the Colts, the Saints, and the Cowboys schedule would appear easier. I don't know if that is true, but a case can be made.

At the very least, I think it does show that teams change from year to year, and it's difficult to base next year predictions on last years schedule. I understand we gotta do something... I'm just saying. The Giants, Eagles, and Titans may implode in 2010 for all we know.

[thunderkyss]

If you are wondering what the colors mean, when I first made the spreadsheet, I highlighted the Texans in Yellow. Teams below the yellow line had an easier schedule, teams above the yellow had a tougher schedule than the Texans (based on 2008 results).

The blue meant the team had a better W/L % after 2009, than they did after 2008, with easier schedules than the Texans. Maybe they got better. The team with red or pinkish color got worse. Look at how many pink squares are on the Saints schedule. Was that because they played the Saints?

The green shows teams that got better, even though they had a tougher schedule than we did. The heavy green are teams that "improved," had a tougher schedule, and finished better than we did.

The teams that finished better than we did, with schedules tougher than ours, were the Patriots, Falcons, Jets, Saints, Eagles, Cowboys, & Colts. 3 AFC teams, 4 NFC teams.

The teams that finished with a better record, and had an easier schedule (using 2008 W/L%) Chargers, Bengals, Cardinals, Packers, Vikings.

The Chargers and the Colts are the only teams within 15 points of our SoS, that did exceptionally well in 2009. I believe that is what many people expected us to do... but we obviously aren't there yet.