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Old 05-25-2010   #1
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Default Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

Pro Football Weely writer Eric Edholm came up with a slightly different angle to rate the Texans chances this year & the brutel truth is I agree until the Texans can prove differently http://www.profootballweekly.com/201...cting-outcomes

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who will be hurt by the schedule

Texans

How’s this for an opening trio? They get the Colts, winners of all but one of the franchise’s games in Houston, at home. Then it’s a road trip to Washington to face their former play-caller in Kyle Shanahan and what should be a much better Redskins team. And third, they get the Cowboys in Houston, and you can bet that Jerry Jones hasn’t forgotten that Sunday night game, the first regular-season contest in Texans history, in which Jones’ Cowboys were embarrassed. Mind you, these all will be played without star LB Brian Cushing, who will miss the first four. It doesn’t let up much at all. There are home games against the Giants, Chargers and Ravens, plus tough road assignments at the Jets and Eagles, as well as the Colts rematch in Indy, where the team’s record is awful. Those ready to vault the Texans up to the next level had better consider this thorny schedule before doing so.
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Old 05-25-2010   #2
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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Originally Posted by beerlover View Post
Pro Football Weely writer Eric Edholm came up with a slightly different angle to rate the Texans chances this year & the brutel truth is I agree until the Texans can prove differently http://www.profootballweekly.com/201...cting-outcomes
Sorry, I'm not seeing anything different about that article. Saying the same thing I've been hearing since the schedule was announced.

Let me ask you this.. If you watch an athlete training, working out, getting stronger everyday, do you say "I won't believe he can press 225, until I see it?"

Truth is, that he can't do it, until he proves it. But If you're watching him train, he's doing the right things, he's making steady progress, you should have a reasonable idea when he's ready to lift 225 right?

I understand there are some differences, lifting 225, isn't going to be any harder than it is today. 225, is 225, right? The schedule does present a different challenge, and will determine the outcome.

But if the Colts had our schedule, and they went 9-7, and missed the play-offs, are they a bad team? Or do they still belong in that upper echelon? If you look at our schedule, and you think the Colts are so good, they'll win 12 games regardless (if they had our schedule). I think we can look at the Texans the same way. Not that we are in the same "league" with the Colts, not that we'll win 12 games, but I think we are one of the better teams in the league. I think we are a 10-12 win team. With the difficulty of our schedule, I'm predicting we'll hit the bottom of that range, with 10 wins. If we win more than 10 games, I think that will be because one or more of the teams we face, won't be as good as predicted.

Hopefully, that would be the Colts. But we'll see.
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Old 05-25-2010   #3
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

Of course !
This is why lots of us give the Texans less of a chance to make it to the playoffs this year than they had last year, which was such a golden opportunity but which was frankly blown by Kubiak with some of his inept coaching including sideline calls during certain games and pregame preperation (opening day in reliant vs NY Jets !).
If they can somehow win 4 games (or more) in their division (last year they won ONE game in their division), they got a shot but otherwise forgetaboutit.
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Old 05-25-2010   #4
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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Originally Posted by IDEXAN View Post
Of course !
This is why lots of us give the Texans less of a chance to make it to the playoffs this year than they had last year, which was such a golden opportunity but which was frankly blown by Kubiak with some of his inept coaching including sideline calls during certain games and pregame preperation (opening day in reliant vs NY Jets !).
If they can somehow win 4 games (or more) in their division (last year they won ONE game in their division), they got a shot but otherwise forgetaboutit.
Of course I would feel better about the Texans chances if they were in the NFC west or AFC west. That being said, I find it hard to be intimidated by opponents on the schedule considering that we are an ascending team and, after week one last season, I never saw this team over-matched. We have similar schedules to Tennessee and INDY. Simply put: we just need to win the division. Indy/Tennessee/ and Houston have essentially identical schedules, except that the Texans don't have to play my pick for AFC champions in 2010... meanwhile, Indy and Tennessee both have to play that team twice!!
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Old 05-25-2010   #5
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

So what their schedule is tuff? It's time they step up and play hard with the big boys. If they can't, then we know Kubiac hasn't got it.

We shall know soon enough.
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Old 05-25-2010   #6
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

Every team in the NFC East and AFC south is in top 10 is toughest schedules, so what the Texans face is not significantly different than thier division opponents. I will save the normal we don't know if this scheulde is tough stuff for someone else.

Bottomline for me, if the Texans on the road at Washington and at home for Dallas are games that the Texans are probably slight favorites..i.e. while not easy those are games that good teams win more of than lose. The schedule is not an excuse for good teams. I am holding the Texans a standard of playoffs and the ability to win in the playoffs. If they are a good football team, there nothing about that schedule that will keep them out of the playoffs.
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Old 05-25-2010   #7
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

It's an old cliche, but to be the best we must beat the best. Nuff said
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Old 05-25-2010   #8
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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It's an old cliche, but to be the MAN we must beat the MAN. Nuff said


WOOOOOOOOOOO!
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Old 05-25-2010   #9
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

We were Top 5 in Offensive Yards and Top 10 in Points Per Game last year with a TERRIBLE offensive line (season ending injuries to both starting Guards), NO running game whatsoever and a Pro Bowl TE that was out the last half of the season.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that our Offensive Line is going to be better in both Run and Pass blocking, our RB's are going to be MUCH more successful and Daniels comes back healthy. I think our offense is going to be better and keep us in a lot of games and outright win others. Particularly these early season games that are tough, I think our Offense steps up and takes care of business.

Schaub and Andre have developed into REALLY big leaders for this team. They are so hungry to win and not repeat mistakes from previous seasons. Everyone is saying how tough our schedule is... but I think this is going to be a really successful year for us.
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Old 05-25-2010   #10
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
We have similar schedules to Tennessee and INDY. Simply put: we just need to win the division.
Obviously, but saying it and doing it are 2 different things for the Texans.
If we are > .500 in the Division, then we got a shot at the playoffs. This year Kubiak had better get the season opener in Reliant vs Indy right !
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Old 05-25-2010   #11
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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Obviously, but saying it and doing it are 2 different things for the Texans.
If we are > .500 in the Division, then we got a shot at the playoffs. This year Kubiak had better get the season opener in Reliant vs Indy right !
YUP!! We better not see a turd like last year's season opener v. the Jets.
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Old 05-25-2010   #12
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

I agree with you guys, that the scheduale dosent mean as much as some people are making it out to be. Yeah its hard, but this team can handle it. Every game means something during the reg. season. If we can make it to the play offs with this hard scheduale then we can go all the way. We need something like this to set the standard on how hard we play.
Besides its going to make the games that much more fun to watch, and when we win its gonna be great to hear the douche bags on tv talk about how the texans are a team on the rise.
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Old 05-25-2010   #13
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
Of course I would feel better about the Texans chances if they were in the NFC west or AFC west. That being said, I find it hard to be intimidated by opponents on the schedule considering that we are an ascending team and, after week one last season, I never saw this team over-matched. We have similar schedules to Tennessee and INDY. Simply put: we just need to win the division. Indy/Tennessee/ and Houston have essentially identical schedules, except that the Texans don't have to play my pick for AFC champions in 2010... meanwhile, Indy and Tennessee both have to play that team twice!!
I don't know, I saw them totally over-matched week 1 out of the gates against the Jets. Unless something changes during the off-season this team just isn't very physical on the offensive side of the ball. The defense is going to lose a big portion of its physical presence the first 4 games of the season as well.

What bothered me wasn't that the team was over matched in general, but it was often out-coached or was subject to questionable playcalling and keeping questionable players on the roster.

This should really be Gary's year. No excuses. He's had plenty of time to fill out the roster with his guys. Playoffs or get fired.

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Obviously, but saying it and doing it are 2 different things for the Texans.
If we are > .500 in the Division, then we got a shot at the playoffs. This year Kubiak had better get the season opener in Reliant vs Indy right !
Considering the Texans have had one year of being .500 in the division this is going to be no small feat. I agree though if we can manage to go 3-3 or better we'll have a good shot at making the wildcard.
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Old 05-25-2010   #14
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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Originally Posted by Ole Miss Texan View Post
We were Top 5 in Offensive Yards and Top 10 in Points Per Game last year with a TERRIBLE offensive line (season ending injuries to both starting Guards), NO running game whatsoever and a Pro Bowl TE that was out the last half of the season.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that our Offensive Line is going to be better in both Run and Pass blocking, our RB's are going to be MUCH more successful and Daniels comes back healthy. I think our offense is going to be better and keep us in a lot of games and outright win others. Particularly these early season games that are tough, I think our Offense steps up and takes care of business.

Schaub and Andre have developed into REALLY big leaders for this team. They are so hungry to win and not repeat mistakes from previous seasons. Everyone is saying how tough our schedule is... but I think this is going to be a really successful year for us.
There you go. Confidence in themselves especially the newer guys like Quin, Foster,Barwin, Cush, McCain and also with Slaton will be helpful for the entire team. I expect the D to step up immensely.

I fear no team on this schedule. The only fear is the unknown such as injuries.
Lace 'em up and play some ball.
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Old 05-25-2010   #15
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

for the record:

09 hammered by Jets in season opener 7-24
08 hammered by Steelers in season opener 17-38
07 pounded KC not exactly a heavyweight 20-3
06 hammered by Eagles in season opener 10-24
05 hammerd by Buffalo in season opener 7-22
04 miffed by Chargers in season opener 20-27
03 squeeked by Dolphins (who have never beaten the Texans) in opener 21-20
02 of course the all time landmark victory over the Cowboys in franchise opening game 19-10


so what, we open against the Colts? the Texans record vs. Colts is 1-14. fast forward game 2 against Washington, now have a real weapon @ QB in Donovan McNabb along with Texans former OC Kyle Shanahan plus Mike who taught Kubiak a thing or two about the same system in Washington coming off a big game against the Cowboys. Then we get the Cowboys, coming into Relient needing to win all without Brian Cushing? I just find it very difficult given this early slate to rationalize how the Texans can come out with a winning record, including the next game against Oakland. the scheduling is predicting more hard times, like it or not.

the positive is going to be in week five when the Texans get the Giants @ home along with their best defensive player. if they finish strong like expected look for them to win 7 or 8 games, if they can just split the first two than should give em a 10-6 season. this will be my pre-season predicition based off the strength of schedule & impact of Cushing four game suspension
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Old 05-25-2010   #16
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
of course i would feel better about the texans chances if they were in the nfc west or afc west. That being said, i find it hard to be intimidated by opponents on the schedule considering that we are an ascending team and, after week one last season, i never saw this team over-matched. We have similar schedules to tennessee and indy. Simply put: We just need to win the division. Indy/tennessee/ and houston have essentially identical schedules, except that the texans don't have to play my pick for afc champions in 2010... Meanwhile, indy and tennessee both have to play that team twice!!
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Old 05-25-2010   #17
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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Originally Posted by Goldensilence View Post
This should really be Gary's year. No excuses. He's had plenty of time to fill out the roster with his guys. Playoffs or get fired.



Considering the Texans have had one year of being .500 in the division this is going to be no small feat. I agree though if we can manage to go 3-3 or better we'll have a good shot at making the wildcard.
What's it going to take to win a wild card this season?

I can't bring myself to say something as stupid as we'll make the play-offs, or Gary is fired. We may go 12-4, or 11-5 and not make the play-offs.

If we go 10-6 (4-2 in division games) and we miss the play-offs because Baltimore has a better conference record than we do... why throw the baby out with the bath water?
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Old 05-26-2010   #18
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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What's it going to take to win a wild card this season?

I can't bring myself to say something as stupid as we'll make the play-offs, or Gary is fired. We may go 12-4, or 11-5 and not make the play-offs.

If we go 10-6 (4-2 in division games) and we miss the play-offs because Baltimore has a better conference record than we do... why throw the baby out with the bath water?
It's highly unlikely we go 11-5 or better and miss the playoffs. I guess you'll point to the Patriots missing out a few seasons ago when they went 11-5. I think that's the one time in NFL history that has happened.

Far as what it's going to take to make the wildcard...I guess you have to break down where the possible division winners and who is likely to get wild card births.

As of this moment I have it looking like this:

Pats and Jets battling it out for the division with the loser getting wildcard #1. Dolphins can make things interesting and challenge for a wildcard as well.

Chargers winning the AFC West. Denver might challenge for a spot, but I just see an epic drop off coming without their best WR and not really having a replacement. Also have big QB questions going into TC.

AFC North is going to be interesting. Can Cinci repeat as division champs? How will Ben's suspension affect the first 4-6 games of the Steelers season? Is Boldin's acquisition the final piece of what could be a Super Bowl run for the Ravens? Personally I think so and the Ravens win the division. Steelers and Cinci will challenge for a WC spot.

I have the Colts winning the division again. I think the Texans have to prove they are mentally tough enough this season and be more physical upfront on offense. We'll challenge for a WC spot. I think the Titans will as well.

I think 10-6 should get us in. Texans will have chances to knock dents in other contender's bids. They need to take advantage of those opportunities.

Question becomes if we have another repeat 9-7 season where Gary has the team win the last 3-4 games to finish there after giving away games would you keep him?

If we finish 10-6, losing the last game of the season (and miss the playoffs in your scenario) on a questionable play call do you keep him?
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Old 05-26-2010   #19
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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Originally Posted by beerlover View Post
for the record:

09 hammered by Jets in season opener 7-24
08 hammered by Steelers in season opener 17-38
07 pounded KC not exactly a heavyweight 20-3
06 hammered by Eagles in season opener 10-24
05 hammerd by Buffalo in season opener 7-22
04 miffed by Chargers in season opener 20-27
03 squeeked by Dolphins (who have never beaten the Texans) in opener 21-20
02 of course the all time landmark victory over the Cowboys in franchise opening game 19-10


so what, we open against the Colts? the Texans record vs. Colts is 1-14. fast forward game 2 against Washington, now have a real weapon @ QB in Donovan McNabb along with Texans former OC Kyle Shanahan plus Mike who taught Kubiak a thing or two about the same system in Washington coming off a big game against the Cowboys. Then we get the Cowboys, coming into Relient needing to win all without Brian Cushing? I just find it very difficult given this early slate to rationalize how the Texans can come out with a winning record, including the next game against Oakland. the scheduling is predicting more hard times, like it or not.

the positive is going to be in week five when the Texans get the Giants @ home along with their best defensive player. if they finish strong like expected look for them to win 7 or 8 games, if they can just split the first two than should give em a 10-6 season. this will be my pre-season predicition based off the strength of schedule & impact of Cushing four game suspension
I hear your concerns and agree with everything you say. IMO Kubes was responsible for the team not being ready against Jets last season. Bush has had a year to get team use to him and I think he is right man for the job. Offense should be ready despite changes and that is Gary's specialty. I expect a well played game even if we do not get a win. If the Texans play like game1, McNair should chew Kubiak's butt. We will only be intergrating one new player as a starter, Jackson. If Smith wins a starter spot, he is a vet and I have no concerns. Cush's replacement for game 1 may be an area of concern but we should be ok.

Added note. Slaton is penciled in to start on my roster.
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Old 05-26-2010   #20
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Default Re: Schedule must be weighed in predicting outcomes

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Originally Posted by Goldensilence View Post

Question becomes if we have another repeat 9-7 season where Gary has the team win the last 3-4 games to finish there after giving away games would you keep him?
this is not about Kubiak, the players or anyone else giving away games, its about weighing in on a difficult schedule imposed on Texans along with suspension of Brian Cushing which the Texans must overcome to be successful, not internal (for a change) its external.

As a fan & for the players we all must look forward to the challenge. Being a Texan we like nothing better than to compete against the best, the national spotlight will be upon our team, how they respond & compete against the Colts, Redskins & Cowboys (before Cushing even steps on the field) will define this season, the future of Kubiak his staff & players alike.

Last edited by beerlover; 05-26-2010 at 11:58 AM.
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