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Old 04-26-2010   #1
gtexan02
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Default Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

For the last 3 years, Ive been harping on the importance of good safety play to NFL teams.

My points have centered around the following:

1. More sacks does not lead to more turnovers. Good defensive back play leads to more turnovers. Ive shown this statistically.

2. The most successful teams of the past few seasons have had stellar safety play. Winning and safety play correlates.


This year came and went, and again, no impact FS was drafted. At first I was upset, and then I realized why it had happened. Here are a few of my hypotheses:

1. Our biggest need this offseason was CB. We play a very difficult scheudle this season with a lot of pass happy teams. Starting a rookie CB along side a rookie FS is a recipe for disaster. You can get away with starting a rookie CB against teams like Indy if you use a veteran safety over the top as an insurance policy.

2. Eugene Wilson is coming along a lot better than we believe. If he played up to 100% of his ability, safety isn't such a glaring need for us. Maybe he's a lot healthier than we think.

3. The coaching staff has reason to be confident in development of Nolan, Barber, etc. Weve had good luck with 7th round picks in the past, so its not unprecedented that Nolan could have made progress and be in the works.

4. One of our current CBs is looking to switch to safety. Molden is 6-1 200+ pounds, and would make the best fit. Maybe its him.

5. The safeties we wanted in each round were chosen before us.
I wanted Earl Thomas in the 1st. He went at 14
In the second, I wanted Taylor Mays. He went 2 spots before us.
I like Major Wright in the 3rd, and he went right before us.
I have no explanation for Reshad Jones, who I also liked. He was there for us in the 5th, and we passed on him. We chose McMannis instead, who I had never heard of. Jones was supposed to go earlier, so maybe there was an issue there we didn't know about


Anyway, just some food for thought. The Texans may have been targeting a safety all along, but had them picked out from under them. Not willing to trade up 5-10 spots to secure the picks, they may just have not had any available. Better not to choose one who isnt oging to make a difference than reach for a project player just to draft a need
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Old 04-26-2010   #2
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

Quote:
Originally Posted by gtexan02 View Post
For the last 3 years, Ive been harping on the importance of good safety play to NFL teams.

My points have centered around the following:

1. More sacks does not lead to more turnovers. Good defensive back play leads to more turnovers. Ive shown this statistically.

2. The most successful teams of the past few seasons have had stellar safety play. Winning and safety play correlates.


This year came and went, and again, no impact FS was drafted. At first I was upset, and then I realized why it had happened. Here are a few of my hypotheses:

1. Our biggest need this offseason was CB. We play a very difficult scheudle this season with a lot of pass happy teams. Starting a rookie CB along side a rookie FS is a recipe for disaster. You can get away with starting a rookie CB against teams like Indy if you use a veteran safety over the top as an insurance policy.

2. Eugene Wilson is coming along a lot better than we believe. If he played up to 100% of his ability, safety isn't such a glaring need for us. Maybe he's a lot healthier than we think.


3. The coaching staff has reason to be confident in development of Nolan, Barber, etc. Weve had good luck with 7th round picks in the past, so its not unprecedented that Nolan could have made progress and be in the works.

4. One of our current CBs is looking to switch to safety. Molden is 6-1 200+ pounds, and would make the best fit. Maybe its him.

5. The safeties we wanted in each round were chosen before us.
I wanted Earl Thomas in the 1st. He went at 14
In the second, I wanted Taylor Mays. He went 2 spots before us.
I like Major Wright in the 3rd, and he went right before us.
I have no explanation for Reshad Jones, who I also liked. He was there for us in the 5th, and we passed on him. We chose McMannis instead, who I had never heard of. Jones was supposed to go earlier, so maybe there was an issue there we didn't know about


Anyway, just some food for thought. The Texans may have been targeting a safety all along, but had them picked out from under them. Not willing to trade up 5-10 spots to secure the picks, they may just have not had any available. Better not to choose one who isnt oging to make a difference than reach for a project player just to draft a need
First bolded statement. I think Wilson is a pitfall. I keep hearing if he can stay healthy, he hasn't been able to in several years now.

Second bolded part. Not sure how they can be confident in Nolan. He was injured and saw no real meaningful time last year. We've done good at other positions later in the draft but terrible with safety. Don't see that changing.

Third bolded statement. Totally agree. I think that despite what Kubiak is saying one of the CBs on this team are going to likely be looked at to ask to try and move over. Molden physically fits the part and is likely in danger of being cut. Bennett might be asked as well as a last ditch effort.
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Old 04-26-2010   #3
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

Reason why not to draft a FS: Kubiak's son is an UDFA Safety out of Colorado State...

Hmmm....
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Old 04-26-2010   #4
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

With the overcrowded CB position I have to believe that at least one of them will move to FS, and Molden is the most likely IMO. They also picked up 2 Safeties after the draft (UDFA), Nick Polk and Aaron Webster. I don't expect either to be players right away, but they could be developed on the PS.
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Old 04-26-2010   #5
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

It appears that the Texans 1) just ran out of draft picks and 2) are not in as bad a shape at this position as some people seem to think.

If all goes well, the Texans may finally be in a position of taking a FS early in next years draft. If one of the guys on their roster (probably Wilson or Barber) has not already solidified himself into the position, that is.
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Old 04-26-2010   #6
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutchrudder;
Reason why not to draft a FS: Kubiak's son is an UDFA Safety out of Colorado State...

Hmmm....
If he can play I wouldn't care
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Old 04-26-2010   #7
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

Well I thought Molden was going to be moved to FS whenever we drafted him and didn't we also draft Quin to play FS? He played well at CB last year so maybe he'll stay there, but I think at least one of our CB's will get looks at FS during camp.
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Old 04-26-2010   #8
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

rmartin65 & badboy discussed this with me early on so I will give you the same reasoning I gave them. the Texans like Dominique Barber along with Eugene Wilson that's a solid 1-2 (assuming both are healthy). If not by drafting a CB in the first round (gotta believe Kareem will earn the starting position in pre-season) Glover Quinn can easily bump down inside. he has the physcial presence, good in coverage & sound tackle technique in run support needed, so that's three deep, not to mention the rest here already.
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Old 04-26-2010   #9
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

So who is our back up SS?
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Old 04-26-2010   #10
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

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So who is our back up SS?
Barber is the top backup at both spots. Troy Nolan is going to make the team as well I think and he is going to be 3rd string FS and SS.
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Old 04-27-2010   #11
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

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So who is our back up SS?
Pollard is his own damned backup.

And if you don't like that, he'll knock the piss out of you.
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Old 04-27-2010   #12
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

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Pollard is his own damned backup.

And if you don't like that, he'll knock the piss out of you.


And you never know about Sharper coming to H-town.....
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Old 04-27-2010   #13
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

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Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
Pollard is his own damned backup.

And if you don't like that, he'll knock the piss out of you.
This^^^^!! Repped.

As far as another Safety, Jeff Donaldson FTW!
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Old 04-27-2010   #14
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

Since we're listing potential reasons, I'm going to go ahead and throw out stupid. I mean, it's possible, right?

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Old 04-27-2010   #15
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

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Originally Posted by MojoMan View Post
It appears that the Texans 1) just ran out of draft picks and 2) are not in as bad a shape at this position as some people seem to think.
The Texans didn't think they were in bad shape at ss last year until opposing running backs kept breaking off long td runs on us in preseason and the begining of the regular season. The Texans just got flat out lucky last year getting Pollard. Can you imagine the season they would have had without him? My point is the Texans were planning on playing the 2009 season with the crap they had at ss.

Eugene Wilson has missed so much football in the last 3 years that he just can't be counted on to complete a season. He is a bandaid at this point in his career. It baffles me why fs has been the arm pit of the defense going on 9 years. A really good fs can change games and it would go a long way to helping us finally break the stranglehold the colts have on the Texans and the division.
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Old 04-27-2010   #16
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

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The Texans didn't think they were in bad shape at ss last year until opposing running backs kept breaking off long td runs on us in preseason and the begining of the regular season. The Texans just got flat out lucky last year getting Pollard. Can you imagine the season they would have had without him? My point is the Texans were planning on playing the 2009 season with the crap they had at ss.

Eugene Wilson has missed so much football in the last 3 years that he just can't be counted on to complete a season. He is a bandaid at this point in his career. It baffles me why fs has been the arm pit of the defense going on 9 years. A really good fs can change games and it would go a long way to helping us finally break the stranglehold the colts have on the Texans and the division.
See, the interesting part about this is that the coaches profess to be comfortable with the situation at FS. They profess to be comfortable with the interior OL, despite the injuries that have befallen the team there. But get an injured TE or two and they stockpile the roster, citing concerns about injury.
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Old 04-27-2010   #17
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

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Originally Posted by bckey View Post
The Texans didn't think they were in bad shape at ss last year until opposing running backs kept breaking off long td runs on us in preseason and the begining of the regular season. The Texans just got flat out lucky last year getting Pollard. Can you imagine the season they would have had without him? My point is the Texans were planning on playing the 2009 season with the crap they had at ss.

Eugene Wilson has missed so much football in the last 3 years that he just can't be counted on to complete a season. He is a bandaid at this point in his career. It baffles me why fs has been the arm pit of the defense going on 9 years. A really good fs can change games and it would go a long way to helping us finally break the stranglehold the colts have on the Texans and the division.
My issue with this argumet is, where are the front seven? It's not a good thing when you have to rely on safeties making tackles. That said, it's nice to know they can, but if you are relying on them for that, there are much bigger issues.
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Old 04-27-2010   #18
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

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My issue with this argumet is, where are the front seven? It's not a good thing when you have to rely on safeties making tackles. That said, it's nice to know they can, but if you are relying on them for that, there are much bigger issues.
I agree with what you are saying. But there are always going to be times when a rb breaks through and those are the times when no matter who the Texans had back there they were caught out of position. Now when Pollard came along he starting knocking the piss outta some running backs.
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Old 04-27-2010   #19
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

I'm glad the Texans did not force the issue just to address the FS position. Darrell Stuckey in the 4th was the only one I was really interested in who was available when the Texans took Sharpton. I guess the value in Sharpton is his versatility, he is an everydown LB, a special teams leader & a physical downhill defensive playmaker. Stuckey selected 10 picks later (San Diego) was a much higher rated prospect in most books, would have fit right into Bushes scheme as well. But he's about it, without giving up some of the other picks or reaching too early for a Nate Allen or Morgan Burnett, of course would have had to trade up like San Diego did for Mathews to get Earl Thomas.
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Old 04-27-2010   #20
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Default Re: Potential reasons for not drafting a FS

One thing with Eugene Wilson is he's a smart safety. I put a high value on that when facing Manning and other great quarterbacks. Do you know how bad Manning would tear apart one of those mid to late round safetys?
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