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Old 04-18-2010   #1
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Default Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

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When we talk about "risk" in the draft, what do we mean? If a team takes a flyer on a guy in the middle-to-late rounds - a spread-offense quarterback with little chance to make the pro transition, a receiver with demon speed and little else, a tackle on either side of the ball with great athleticism and iffy fundamentals, or a player at any position who's already been coached to his ceiling - well, the risk is negligible. Teams are playing dice with the universe after the first couple of rounds, and they know it. It's the picks early on that can come back and haunt a franchise for years if they're made without the proper scouting and background work. Here are 10 players with first- and second-round grades who also possess major risk factors that could make them either bargains or busts.

QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame: Of course, the big positive with Clausen is that he's pro-ready; his work with Charlie Weis presented him with the ability to get a head start on the intricacies of the pro game. He won't have to adjust too heavily when it comes to the verbiage of NFL play calls, and he's far more comfortable under center than any other highly-regarded quarterback in this class. However, the increase in the number of spread offenses over the last five years sometimes has NFL personnel men overrating the effects of pro-readiness, and not looking closely enough at the pure physical tools that certain coaching tactics may inflate beyond actual potential. Clausen still has many questions to answer at the next level, especially if a team overdrafts him hoping for a quick solution.

QB Tim Tebow, Florida: It's not the mechanics we're talking about here - it's common knowledge that Tebow will require at least a year of development before he's ready to remotely resemble an NFL quarterback. But that's the problem. If Tebow doesn't go to an NFL team with an established starting quarterback, every mistake made by the QBs in front of him will be amplified by a super-fawning media beyond anxious for him to get on the field so more quick stories can be written. Through no fault of his own, Tebow has the potential to rip a team apart.

RB Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shu...urn=nfl,234844
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Old 04-18-2010   #2
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

Just for fun, I'll say whether I think the risk is worth it with these guys.

QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame: No
QB Tim Tebow, Florida: YES.
RB Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech: Yes
TE Jimmy Graham, Miami: Yes.
WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State: Yes, any friend of Deon is a friend of mine.
OT Bruce Campbell, Maryland: NO, or NO WAY JOSE!
DE Jason Pierre-Paul, South Florida: Yes
DE Carlos Dunlap, Florida: Yes
DB Patrick Robinson, Florida State: Yes
S Taylor Mays, USC: Yes
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Old 04-18-2010   #3
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

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Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan View Post
Just for fun, I'll say whether I think the risk is worth it with these guys.

QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame: No
QB Tim Tebow, Florida: YES.
RB Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech: Yes
TE Jimmy Graham, Miami: Yes.
WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State: Yes, any friend of Deon is a friend of mine.
OT Bruce Campbell, Maryland: NO, or NO WAY JOSE!
DE Jason Pierre-Paul, South Florida: Yes
DE Carlos Dunlap, Florida: Yes
DB Patrick Robinson, Florida State: Yes
S Taylor Mays, USC: Yes
I don't care what they say...if we don't take Dan Williams or Mike Iuapti in the first I would take Taylor Mays just because of the size and physical style of play. Lets just let Brain Cushing make the call if those Williams and Iuapti are gone by the time we pick.
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Old 04-18-2010   #4
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

Cush is a big fan of Mays... that is part of what makes me like him as a prospect.
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Old 04-18-2010   #5
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

Yeah well If we're trading Adibi and moving Mays to a chase will backer, I'm on board with that. If Mays is cruising our back four Manning will take him and his slow hips to school. And it will not be pretty.
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Old 04-18-2010   #6
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

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Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan View Post
Cush is a big fan of Mays... that is part of what makes me like him as a prospect.
I hope that nobody lets their man love for Cush get in the way of rating prospects. Cush isn't a GM.
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Old 04-18-2010   #7
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

I dont see the risk in Clausen. He comes from a pro style offense and had an amazing year playing through a toe injury and has the swagger of a winner.

The whole attitude problem rep he gets is such BS. He shouldnt be on that list IMO.

The rest i agree with.
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Old 04-18-2010   #8
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

This is basically just someone saying who he thinks is "overvalued" according to some of the other experts. If Mays is drafted in round 2 and Dwyer in round 3, is that riskier than if someone drafts Dez Bryant with the second overall pick?

How risky is it to draft Tebow late in the second and groom him as a backup QB, a short yardage back, and/or an H-back?
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Old 04-18-2010   #9
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

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Originally Posted by mariowillshine15 View Post
I dont see the risk in Clausen. He comes from a pro style offense and had an amazing year playing through a toe injury and has the swagger of a winner.

The whole attitude problem rep he gets is such BS. He shouldnt be on that list IMO.

The rest i agree with.
If you watched the Gruden QB school on ESPN, it's pretty clear this guy could be the next Jeff George. He wasn't accountable for anything. He blamed WRs for interceptions, coaches for delays of game... it was pretty amazing to see the difference in attitude between him and Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow.

By the way, Bradford doesn't exactly inspire you listenning to him either.
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Old 04-18-2010   #10
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

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If you watched the Gruden QB school on ESPN, it's pretty clear this guy could be the next Jeff George. He wasn't accountable for anything. He blamed WRs for interceptions, coaches for delays of game... it was pretty amazing to see the difference in attitude between him and Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow.

By the way, Bradford doesn't exactly inspire you listenning to him either.
Just going off of what i see in his games Clausen is no Jeff George. George had a rocket launcher for an arm and a peanut for a brain.

Clausen has a great feel for the game and great intangibles.

If any QB should be on that list it's Bradford.

Spread offense QBs get criticized every year but Bradford has gotten very little flack for it.

The guy had a great team around him his first 2 years and the first year without a great O-line he goes down.

Bradford is the guy i would be worried about not Clausen.
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Old 04-18-2010   #11
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

Pat Kirwain was saying that he's not sold on Bradford.
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Old 04-19-2010   #12
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

QB's with the physical ability and pro-preparedness of a Clausen don't come around very often, i don't think it's a "risk" at all to draft him. this is where the overthinking with drafting players comes into play. look at the tape, look at the measurables, look at all of it, clearly Clausen is heads and shoulders above the rest of the QB prospects this year. he's cocky; Aaron Rodgers was the same guy coming out of college. people look too much into a guy being a bit douchey than they do a guy being completely laid back and lazy. the latter comes off better in interviews, but that's because of what we as football fans have decided what we feel a QB should be like, on and off the field, whereas all that really matters is how good they are and how good they want to be.

draft him, build the franchise around him.
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Old 04-19-2010   #13
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

This will probably surprise you but, some of the "can't miss" prospects probably will and some 3rd-4th rounder will be in the Pro Bowl every year for the next decade. It is the nature of the draft. The trick is how well you detect which is which.
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Old 04-19-2010   #14
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

IMO the biggest risk/reward prospect is Taylor Mays. In the right scheme he can flourish, but if a team thinks he can hold the centerfield without any scheming to disguise his weaknesses he will flop.

If the right coach gets Mays he can be a heck of a player in the NFL.
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Old 04-19-2010   #15
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

Bradford's ceiling is higher than Clausens'. But his floor is also lower.

I think they have the wrong guy on the list. Clausen is more NFL ready. Yeah, he is a douche but the talent and the brain are there. And he looks like he will put in the work.
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Old 04-20-2010   #16
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

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Cush is a big fan of Mays... that is part of what makes me like him as a prospect.
anybody care to guess where cush went to school?
of course he likes mays they're both trojans!!
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Old 04-20-2010   #17
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

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I think they have the wrong guy on the list. Clausen is more NFL ready. Yeah, he is a douche but the talent and the brain are there. And he looks like he will put in the work.
he's just an easy guy to hate. i mean, a real cocky dude with spiked hair from Notre Dame? it's almost like he wants everyone to despise him.
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Old 04-20-2010   #18
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

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Originally Posted by kiwitexansfan View Post
Cush is a big fan of Mays... that is part of what makes me like him as a prospect.
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anybody care to guess where cush went to school?
of course he likes mays they're both trojans!!
I have to agree here. If my buddy was applying for a job where I work, of course I am going to back him, unless he is a really really bad worker.

Cushing said that Mays was a real hard worker, and could chase down anybody. But the knock on him is that he can cover very well which is big for a safety in the NFL.

I am not saying I would hate drafting the guy. His size/speed is off the chart. And who knows what some good coaching will do.
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Old 04-20-2010   #19
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

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he's just an easy guy to hate. i mean, a real cocky dude with spiked hair from Notre Dame? it's almost like he wants everyone to despise him.
I know what you mean. Personally, I can't stand him. But to deny somebody's talent just because you don't like them isn't really a sound strategy if you are trying to build a football team.

If it were his former teammates saying things about him then I would be singing a different tune. But it's not. It's people from the outside looking in.
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Old 04-20-2010   #20
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Default Re: Buyer Beware: The 10 riskiest 2010 draft picks

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Originally Posted by mariowillshine15 View Post
I dont see the risk in Clausen. He comes from a pro style offense and had an amazing year playing through a toe injury and has the swagger of a winner.

The whole attitude problem rep he gets is such BS. He shouldnt be on that list IMO.

The rest i agree with.
signed Jeff George, Ryan Leaf, and Andre Ware
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