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Old 04-18-2010   #1
The Pencil Neck
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Default Rushing Attack & Draft Positions

So, here's the deal. We've talked before about how 60% of the top 10 rushing attacks had a #1 rusher who was drafted in the first round. If you look at the top 10 rushers, the number is actually higher.

But the question was, what about the lines they were running behind? Were these guys running behind a line full of first rounders? The Jets' line is full of first rounders, except for the UDFA guy playing right guard. Are other lines similar? Well, one of the top 10 teams (the Bengals) actually started 3 UDFA's for part of the season and had no starter picked before the 2nd round.

My numbers may not be perfect on this. It's a pain trying to work out starting lineups for offensive lines. So, my numbers are going to total up a little bit weird where I identified multiple starters.

But here's what I've got. More starting tackles come from the first round than interior linemen.

Overall, regardless of position:
1st round - 27%
2nd round - 16%
3rd round - 11%
4th round - 11%
5th round - 9%
6th round - 7%
7th round - 7%
UDFA - 10%

For tackles (I've combined both, I can break this out if anyone cares):
1st round - 36%
2nd round - 18%
3rd round - 7%
4th round - 11%
5th round - 11%
6th round - 7%
UDFA - 11%

For interior linemen (I've combined them all, but I can break them out):
1st round - 13%
2nd round - 24%
3rd round - 11%
4th round - 5%
5th round - 11%
6th round - 11%
7th round - 11%
UDFA - 16%


So, basically, get your tackles from the 1st or 2nd round and nab your interior linemen wherever you want. UDFA's are surprisingly well represented. (Oh, and I think it's about 30% of these players are not with their original teams. But I didn't specifically calculate that.)

Again, the numbers for the running backs for these teams:
1st round - 60%
2nd round - 10%
4th round - 20%
UDFA - 10%
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Old 04-18-2010   #2
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Default Re: Rushing Attack & Draft Positions

Well I've felt that ever since I saw him in the humanitarian bowl, Iupati is one of those 13% guys you throw the rule book away on. He goes before the twenty , it'll mean I wasn't a lone ranger believing that. 330 pound guy moving like a 303 pound guy, that there thingy is a scheme diverse rare bird. I buy that every year it falls into my lap and never look back. And I believe every snap of the ball he will only get better and elevate all those around him in the o-line. If he moves us from the bottom five into the top ten that will be worth every penny we spend on him. There are only two guys I would move up for in this draft, Iupati and Earl Thomas. Each elevates their side of the ball and the team as a whole, to warrant the move up.
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Old 04-18-2010   #3
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Default Re: Rushing Attack & Draft Positions

This tells me that the highest percentage of OT's come from the 1st round (36%) and the highest percentage of OG/C's come from the 2nd round (24%). So most teams with good running attacks put some importance on their O-line with mostly 1st and 2nd string picks being used but quite a few 3rd round picks as well. The Texans have one 1st rounder (Duane Brown) that many feel was a reach, one 3rd rounder (Eric Winston), a 6th round pick (Chris Myers), an UDFA (Mike Brisiel) and a big hole at LG that Kasey Studdard was starting at who was taken in the 6th round. Then in FA we pick up Wade Smith who's been in the league for 7 yrs. as a journeyman backup. I see a bunch of undersized, low talent starters on our O-line and we wonder why our O-line and running game suck.
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Old 04-18-2010   #4
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Default Re: Rushing Attack & Draft Positions

So, I was thinking that just seeing the TOP END is one thing, but it really needs to be seen in contrast with the bottom end as well.

For teams in the bottom 10, the running backs break down like this:

1st - 25%
2nd - 13%
3rd - 38%
4th - 13%
5th - 13%

To me, it seems like the least potent rushing attacks are trying to rely on lower round backs.

Overall, the lines break down like this:

1st - 26%
2nd - 13%
3rd - 20%
4th - 8%
5th - 4%
6th - 8%
7th - 6%
UDFA - 14%

The tackles:

1st - 42%
2nd - 8%
3rd - 17%
4th - 4%
5th - 4%
6th - 4%
7th - 4%
UDFA - 17%

The interior linemen:

1st - 14%
2nd - 17%
3rd - 24%
4th - 10%
5th - 3%
6th - 10%
7th - 7%
UDFA - 14%

The only line with an interior less talented than ours (based on where guys were drafted) is the Colts. They started 3 UDFA interior linemen. As opposed to us, starting 2 6th round draft choices and two UDFAs for the majority of the season.

The draft positions of the interior linemen doesn't look too drastically different between the top and bottom of the league. It's interesting to me that the bottom dwellers have more 1st round and UDFA tackles than the top. BUT, there may be a little more of a bias toward the 1st rounders because according to what I see there were 2 teams that used two 1st rounders at their LT spot during the year.
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Old 04-18-2010   #5
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Default Re: Rushing Attack & Draft Positions

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Originally Posted by Wolf6151 View Post
This tells me that the highest percentage of OT's come from the 1st round (36%) and the highest percentage of OG/C's come from the 2nd round (24%). So most teams with good running attacks put some importance on their O-line with mostly 1st and 2nd string picks being used but quite a few 3rd round picks as well. The Texans have one 1st rounder (Duane Brown) that many feel was a reach, one 3rd rounder (Eric Winston), a 6th round pick (Chris Myers), an UDFA (Mike Brisiel) and a big hole at LG that Kasey Studdard was starting at who was taken in the 6th round. Then in FA we pick up Wade Smith who's been in the league for 7 yrs. as a journeyman backup. I see a bunch of undersized, low talent starters on our O-line and we wonder why our O-line and running game suck.
But even those the highest percentage of OG/OC's comes from the 2nd round, that actual percentage is so low that it doesn't really show a preference. If you look at the numbers, they show that MOST (over 50%) of the interior lineman actually come from after the 3rd round.

For tackles, over 50% come in the first 3 rounds.

Even if Duane Brown is considered a 2nd round talent (based on draft position), from a draft position perspective, our tackles are not unusual for either a good or bad rushing team.

Our interior line should be upgraded. Only one of the upper level rushing attacks has an interior line comparable in composition to ours. Most of the teams that have 1 or 2 UDFA or 7th round players in the middle combine that with at least 1 2nd rounder. None of them are completely composed of 6th rounders and UDFAs like we are.
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Old 04-18-2010   #6
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Default Re: Rushing Attack & Draft Positions

On the genereal misconceptions of the how teams are built is that they are full of high round draft picks. An organization is dependant on finding players outside of the premium draft spots and high dollar acquisitions. A team would need 5 plus years to field a starting line-up if they hit on all of thier 1st-3rds(assuming 1 per year i.e. no trades etc) and signed 1 high dollar Fa a year. As demonstrated in this thread, most teams have 2 or 3 starters in the OL that are not premium draft picks. Improving a position is not just about drafting one higher it is about recognizing guys who fit in your system all throughout the draft and free agency.
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Old 04-19-2010   #7
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Default Re: Rushing Attack & Draft Positions

Quote:
Originally Posted by threetoedpete View Post
Well I've felt that ever since I saw him in the humanitarian bowl, Iupati is one of those 13% guys you throw the rule book away on. He goes before the twenty , it'll mean I wasn't a lone ranger believing that. 330 pound guy moving like a 303 pound guy, that there thingy is a scheme diverse rare bird. I buy that every year it falls into my lap and never look back. And I believe every snap of the ball he will only get better and elevate all those around him in the o-line. If he moves us from the bottom five into the top ten that will be worth every penny we spend on him. There are only two guys I would move up for in this draft, Iupati and Earl Thomas. Each elevates their side of the ball and the team as a whole, to warrant the move up.
I'm jumping on this Iupati bandwagon again as draft day approaches and different scenarios for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds show up (Tate's, AOA's, Wrights, Millers, Gerharts...etc...). There's only one OG who looks and moves like Iupati and taking him at 20 wouldn't be reaching, IMHO.
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Old 04-19-2010   #8
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Default Re: Rushing Attack & Draft Positions

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Originally Posted by HuttoKarl View Post
I'm jumping on this Iupati bandwagon again as draft day approaches and different scenarios for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds show up (Tate's, AOA's, Wrights, Millers, Gerharts...etc...). There's only one OG who looks and moves like Iupati and taking him at 20 wouldn't be reaching, IMHO.
I still think that our defense is far more important to fix than our O. I would like to see Earl Thomas (although it sounds like he'll be gone by our pick) or Kyle Wilson with our first rounder, then address O-Line in the 3rd or 4th round. With D-Rob leaving, our secondary had become THE biggest priority for this off-season.

Very cool to see those stats, thanks.
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Old 04-19-2010   #9
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Default Re: Rushing Attack & Draft Positions

this probably shakes out the same for any other position. most interior linemen aren't found in round one because, well, interior linemen aren't drafted in the first round often, certainly not compared to those franchise tackles we hear so much about. and with their being so many injuries on o-line all the time (and the o-line having 5 different starters), you're going to see a lot more variety of players from all over the draft, and plenty of undrafted players, since a lot of teams just need to have bodies to replace the injured players.

in other words, just like any other position, you gotta draft well and keep a huge eye on depth.
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Old 04-19-2010   #10
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Default Re: Rushing Attack & Draft Positions

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Originally Posted by TexCanada View Post
I still think that our defense is far more important to fix than our O. I would like to see Earl Thomas (although it sounds like he'll be gone by our pick) or Kyle Wilson with our first rounder, then address O-Line in the 3rd or 4th round. With D-Rob leaving, our secondary had become THE biggest priority for this off-season.

Very cool to see those stats, thanks.
I don't doubt the need for some help in the secondary at all, but the second, third and maybe even fourth rounds give some nice options to choose from there.
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Old 04-19-2010   #11
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Default Re: Rushing Attack & Draft Positions

Quote:
Originally Posted by kastofsna View Post
this probably shakes out the same for any other position. most interior linemen aren't found in round one because, well, interior linemen aren't drafted in the first round often, certainly not compared to those franchise tackles we hear so much about. and with their being so many injuries on o-line all the time (and the o-line having 5 different starters), you're going to see a lot more variety of players from all over the draft, and plenty of undrafted players, since a lot of teams just need to have bodies to replace the injured players.

in other words, just like any other position, you gotta draft well and keep a huge eye on depth.
Saw stats earlier on average draft position for starters in the legue (if remember where I will post). Outside of kickers and fullbacks, I want to say that safety, TE, and interior OL had the lowest averages per pick.
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Old 04-19-2010   #12
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Default Re: Rushing Attack & Draft Positions

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
Saw stats earlier on average draft position for starters in the legue (if remember where I will post). Outside of kickers and fullbacks, I want to say that safety, TE, and interior OL had the lowest averages per pick.
safety's a bit of a surprise, what with the latest trend in finding those headhunter-type centerfield safeties in the first round.
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Old 04-19-2010   #13
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Default Re: Rushing Attack & Draft Positions

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Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
So, here's the deal. We've talked before about how 60% of the top 10 rushing attacks had a #1 rusher who was drafted in the first round. If you look at the top 10 rushers, the number is actually higher.

But the question was, what about the lines they were running behind? Were these guys running behind a line full of first rounders? The Jets' line is full of first rounders, except for the UDFA guy playing right guard. Are other lines similar? Well, one of the top 10 teams (the Bengals) actually started 3 UDFA's for part of the season and had no starter picked before the 2nd round.

My numbers may not be perfect on this. It's a pain trying to work out starting lineups for offensive lines. So, my numbers are going to total up a little bit weird where I identified multiple starters.

But here's what I've got. More starting tackles come from the first round than interior linemen.

Overall, regardless of position:
1st round - 27%
2nd round - 16%
3rd round - 11%
4th round - 11%
5th round - 9%
6th round - 7%
7th round - 7%
UDFA - 10%

For tackles (I've combined both, I can break this out if anyone cares):
1st round - 36%
2nd round - 18%
3rd round - 7%
4th round - 11%
5th round - 11%
6th round - 7%
UDFA - 11%

For interior linemen (I've combined them all, but I can break them out):
1st round - 13%
2nd round - 24%
3rd round - 11%
4th round - 5%
5th round - 11%
6th round - 11%
7th round - 11%
UDFA - 16%


So, basically, get your tackles from the 1st or 2nd round and nab your interior linemen wherever you want. UDFA's are surprisingly well represented. (Oh, and I think it's about 30% of these players are not with their original teams. But I didn't specifically calculate that.)

Again, the numbers for the running backs for these teams:
1st round - 60%
2nd round - 10%
4th round - 20%
UDFA - 10%

Be careful in reading too much into these numbers! There are variable in here that aren't implicit.

for instance: The 2nd round spike with the Interior Line- how much of that is due to the tendency for players not to be drafted in round one. A more telling number to me would be what percentage of C/G drafted in round one are starters, compared to the percentage in the 2nd, 3rd, etc..

Also, there has been a new trend in the NFL to devalue the RB. If you look back 5+ years, RBs often littered the first 10-15 picks. Teams have moved away from that now. 2005 had three RBs drafted in the first 5 picks: Ronnie Brown, Benson, Cad. Williams. In 2006 Reggie Bush went #2.. But, already in 2007, you see the new philosophy: AP slides to #7.
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Old 04-19-2010   #14
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Default Re: Rushing Attack & Draft Positions

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Originally Posted by kastofsna View Post
safety's a bit of a surprise, what with the latest trend in finding those headhunter-type centerfield safeties in the first round.
We maybe seeing a change but there was not a safety taken in the first in 2009, 1 in 2008, 4 in 2007, 2 in 2006. There are a handful of notable first rounders, but safety has been a position where team thought that they could find guys and/or convert guys. My guess, is that If Pencil Neck did one of these for safety probably see and averge for team is a 2nd/3rd rounder with a 5th/6th round as the norm.
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Old 04-20-2010   #15
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Default Re: Rushing Attack & Draft Positions

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
On the genereal misconceptions of the how teams are built is that they are full of high round draft picks. An organization is dependant on finding players outside of the premium draft spots and high dollar acquisitions. A team would need 5 plus years to field a starting line-up if they hit on all of thier 1st-3rds(assuming 1 per year i.e. no trades etc) and signed 1 high dollar Fa a year. As demonstrated in this thread, most teams have 2 or 3 starters in the OL that are not premium draft picks. Improving a position is not just about drafting one higher it is about recognizing guys who fit in your system all throughout the draft and free agency.
Yeah well when one of our non premium DBs wakes up you be sure to post and let us know.
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