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Old 04-16-2010   #1
Wolf6151
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Default Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

On a scale of 1-5:
1-Great=A
2-Good=B
3-Average=C
4-Poor=D
5-Terrible=F

How much confidence do you have in Smith/Kubiak as talent evaluators, team needs evaluators, draft strategy planners? Basically how much confidence do you have in them, with regards to the upcoming draft, that they'll do a good job?

As for myself, I don't have much confidence in them, maybe a 3 or 4. They take to many chances on small school players, project players, and have to many bust picks in their history.
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Old 04-16-2010   #2
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

B-

I wish they would realize we need players with higher floors than higher ceilings. (IE Immeidate starters/playmakers, not 3 year will be XXXXXXXX)
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Old 04-16-2010   #3
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

I'd say a 2.5 - they haven't messed up, really, but they haven't hit on their big picks as well as I'd like. Okoye is the biggest factor in that equation, though, and I feel like the coaching has had a lot to do with it moreso than him just flat being a bust.

As for the small school projects, I'm generally OK with a team doing that, because you can find some great players on the cheap that way. I think Jacoby may well end up in that category. Most WRs take until their 3rd or 4th season to break out, and I think we saw JJ do that last season with what little opportunity he was given.

Where I have a problem with the project plan is when the team needs impact players now. The team needed an impact player in the first round of '07, not a project player. Let a team like the Colts, Pats, or Steelers take a flier on a guy. They can afford the risk. Our team is increasingly approaching the point where it can afford to take chances on developmental players, particularly in the 3rd or later rounds, but in '07 that wasn't the case.
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Old 04-16-2010   #4
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

I give the current scouts and Smith an A+ in terms of talent evaluation and finding free agents on the street. I give smith a solid c in running a draft room. Proof is in the pudding.

We'll find out Thursday if their current view as reported by General John in his blog about the skill set of the seven o-lineman on their roster is sincere or they are blowing smoke. I don't know how many more times we've got to see our pivot guys being thrown around like rag dolls before they figure out the game is evolving and you need a little mass in at least one spot of the three pivot men even with the ZBS. And if you have a guy fall into your laps at twenty who is perfect and solves an eight year old problem, you take him.
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Old 04-16-2010   #5
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
I'd say a 2.5 - they haven't messed up, really, but they haven't hit on their big picks as well as I'd like. Okoye is the biggest factor in that equation, though, and I feel like the coaching has had a lot to do with it moreso than him just flat being a bust.

As for the small school projects, I'm generally OK with a team doing that, because you can find some great players on the cheap that way. I think Jacoby may well end up in that category. Most WRs take until their 3rd or 4th season to break out, and I think we saw JJ do that last season with what little opportunity he was given.

Where I have a problem with the project plan is when the team needs impact players now. The team needed an impact player in the first round of '07, not a project player. Let a team like the Colts, Pats, or Steelers take a flier on a guy. They can afford the risk. Our team is increasingly approaching the point where it can afford to take chances on developmental players, particularly in the 3rd or later rounds, but in '07 that wasn't the case.

When you are devoid of twos because you're fast peddling to over come the sins of GMs past, you are forced to gamble a little bit. They are not the only ones who have missed on a DT early in the draft. Someone posted this the other week and the ratio IIRC was close to 50%. Okoye is just too busy saving the world and not concerned enough with the super bowl. he hasn't figured out yet that the NFL window for success is small and short. You've got the rest of your life to save the world. Only have a few seasons to win a SB.

Also they had to gamble and reach with both both their offensive tackles. We're on the verge of the pay off for Jacoby Jones and Conner Barwin. We've had poor luck with the DBs, but Pittsburgh for one, does exactly the same thing as what Smith and Kubiak are trying to do with the dbs. find guys who do exactly what you project them to do. And at the size you want them at. If they'd of waited on Barwin until the third he would of be gone to a 3-4 team before our third round pick. If they wanted him and his upside they had to select him where they did. He is the same size as Jack Hacksaw Reynolds and he works just as hard. Raw guys you have to wait a little bit. We'll see the next couple of seasons just how big his heart is.
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Old 04-16-2010   #6
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

Smithiak = B in the war room and a D in pro player personel

They busted on OkOye but other than that they have been really good in the war room.

Last year they selected the DROY at 15. You cant ask for more than that .

The only reason they dont get an F on the PPP side is the Schaub trade.
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Old 04-16-2010   #7
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

I'd have to grade Smith/Kubiak's drafts as solid B's. There's a lot of conservatism (IE no moving up to snag a guy really) and they are 1-1-1 in the first round (Okoye is not much at this point, Duane Brown is okay but not a total liability, and Cushing was a grand slam his rookie year). I would call them above average and even the best have terrible picks in the first round. They do get some decent value in the mid to later rounds and I don't see how anybody can fault them for that.

I don't see why people are rushing to lump FA into a draft grade, but their FA stuff also follows the same trend. Not much risk, decent amount of reward but the best values come from out of nowhere.
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Old 04-16-2010   #8
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

I am going to abstain but will say the talent in this draft and the depth at our identified need positions should allow a really good haul. We need results like last year's selections provided.
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Old 04-16-2010   #9
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolf6151 View Post
On a scale of 1-5:
1-Great=A
2-Good=B
3-Average=C
4-Poor=D
5-Terrible=F

How much confidence do you have in Smith/Kubiak as talent evaluators, team needs evaluators, draft strategy planners? Basically how much confidence do you have in them, with regards to the upcoming draft, that they'll do a good job?

As for myself, I don't have much confidence in them, maybe a 3 or 4. They take to many chances on small school players, project players, and have to many bust picks in their history.
A!

I have total confidence in these guys on draft day. The Okoye pick in 2007 was a rough one, but it's hard to argue about much sense then. And, the 2006 draft was amazing and much of that should be attributed to Kubiak. The 2008 draft looks good and the 2009 draft could be another gem, like the '06 was.
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Old 04-16-2010   #10
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

Quote:
Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
Smithiak = B in the war room and a D in pro player personel
They busted on OkOye but other than that they have been really good in the war room.

Last year they selected the DROY at 15. You cant ask for more than that .

The only reason they dont get an F on the PPP side is the Schaub trade.
Quality Contributors
Matt Schaub (2nd, 2nd)
Antonio Smith
Bernard Pollard
Sean Cody
Tim Bulman
Kevin Bentley
Eugene Wilson
Chris Myers (6th)
Kevin Walter (7th)
Andre Davis
Jacques Reeves
Rashod Butler
Vonte Leach

Costly FA signings/ Bad Trades/ Poor personnel decisions
Ahman Green
Nick Ferguson, Busing, and the handling of the safety position last off-season
Chris Brown, Ryan Moats, and the lack of quality RB depth last off-season



I couldn't find one bad trade, one salary cap crippling FA signing, or any player that was let go and was clearly a mistake. I'm not sure how this resume' should get a "D"?

Edit: Eric Moulds for a 5th rounder was a mistake!
also, I didn't like keeping Studdard over Brandon Frye a couple years ago but Frye hasn't done much.
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Old 04-16-2010   #11
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

I'd go high B.

They have brought in a great deal more talent than the previous regime. They know what they want and where to get it.

As for the FA signings, when your a bad team you need to overpay to get people.
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Old 04-16-2010   #12
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolf6151 View Post
On a scale of 1-5:
1-Great=A
2-Good=B
3-Average=C
4-Poor=D
5-Terrible=F

How much confidence do you have in Smith/Kubiak as talent evaluators, team needs evaluators, draft strategy planners? Basically how much confidence do you have in them, with regards to the upcoming draft, that they'll do a good job?

As for myself, I don't have much confidence in them, maybe a 3 or 4. They take to many chances on small school players, project players, and have to many bust picks in their history.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Section516 View Post
B-

I wish they would realize we need players with higher floors than higher ceilings. (IE Immeidate starters/playmakers, not 3 year will be XXXXXXXX)
Tend to agree. Many picks seem to be project picks.

Amobi Okoye - project, hasn't turned into much
Jacoby Jones - project, turned out to be decent so far imo.
Duane Brown - Not sure if I'd say project or not but had limited time at the Tackle position in college.
Antwuan Molden - I'd say project just for the simple fact he came from a small school.
Steve Slaton - Not really a project.
Brian Cushing - Not a project
Connor Barwin - many considered this a project pick
Antoine Caldwell - project pick. Seen as guard of the future!

*^^^From 07-09 drafts, rounds 1-3 only. In rounds 1-3, you should be looking for starters imo, not hopeful that MIGHT or might not turn into something later down the road.


I'll go C- or 3 1/2
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Old 04-16-2010   #13
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonSportsFan09 View Post
Tend to agree. Many picks seem to be project picks.

Amobi Okoye - project, hasn't turned into much
Jacoby Jones - project, turned out to be decent so far imo.
Duane Brown - Not sure if I'd say project or not but had limited time at the Tackle position in college.
Antwuan Molden - I'd say project just for the simple fact he came from a small school.
Steve Slaton - Not really a project.
Brian Cushing - Not a project
Connor Barwin - many considered this a project pick
Antoine Caldwell - project pick. Seen as guard of the future!

*^^^From 07-09 drafts, rounds 1-3 only. In rounds 1-3, you should be looking for starters imo, not hopeful that MIGHT or might not turn into something later down the road.


I'll go C- or 3 1/2
Perhaps you don't understand the nature of the draft. These are collegiate players that have no NFL experience. They are all projects!

Somewhere in there is a fair argument: perhaps the Okoye pick was a reach given his immature body and age. Other than that, I couldn't disagree more.

Trying comparing any of the great NFL teams' 3rd round picks the past three years to ours and see whose picks had more immediate impact and contribution:

Jacoby Jones
Steve Slaton
Antoine Caldwell... that's darn impressive. go back another year and we had Charles Spencer and Eric Winston. Was Winston a project? He started the final month of his rookie season, just like Antoine Caldwell. Jones was immediately an impact player on ST and was a very good 3rd/4th receiver last year as well.

By the way, see how many 2nd round picks in '09 were more productive than Connor Barwin last season.

Then, compare Duane Brown's first two seasons with some of the OTs taken ahead of him in '08: Chris Williams, Albert, Cherilus, Sam Baker.... or, the two taken after him on day one: John Greco, Chad Reinhart.

Duane Brown started at LT from week one as a rookie. While he certainly has room for improvement, he's the LT for one of the best passing offenses in the NFL. That's one heck of a "project".
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Old 04-16-2010   #14
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

I'd give them a B+.
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Old 04-16-2010   #15
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

Kubiak deserves to be evaluated separately from Rick Smith because of his Broncos days. Kubs had alot of influence on some of the better picks in Broncos draft history.
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Old 04-16-2010   #16
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

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Originally Posted by m5kwatts View Post
Kubiak deserves to be evaluated separately from Rick Smith because of his Broncos days. Kubs had alot of influence on some of the better picks in Broncos draft history.
And Kubiak was part of the Texans' 2006 draft which has to be one of the best drafts in history.
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Old 04-16-2010   #17
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

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And Kubiak was part of the Texans' 2006 draft which has to be one of the best drafts in history.
Right. You have to give Kubiak his due for the best draft in team history. Maybe Casserly was the driving force behind the Winston and Daniels picks. Kubiak had to OK them.

I would give the Texans under Kubiak & Smith a strong B grade, in regards to the draft. Many bash the Okoye pick in retrospect. But, Okoye was a consensus top 10 pick going into that draft. I would have to place the majority of the blame on Okoye's lack of development on Okoye himself. With the remaining fault laid on the coaching staff for his misuse as an everydown DT early in his career.
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Old 04-17-2010   #18
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

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Originally Posted by m5kwatts View Post
Kubiak deserves to be evaluated separately from Rick Smith because of his Broncos days. Kubs had alot of influence on some of the better picks in Broncos draft history.
I'm not sure I understand what you're saying here, but Smith was an Assistant GM with the Broncos when Kubes was there. I'm sure both had some influence on the same drafts, but how do you know Kubes "had a lot of influence on some of the better picks in Broncos draft history?"
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Old 04-18-2010   #19
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

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Originally Posted by Insideop View Post
I'm not sure I understand what you're saying here, but Smith was an Assistant GM with the Broncos when Kubes was there. I'm sure both had some influence on the same drafts, but how do you know Kubes "had a lot of influence on some of the better picks in Broncos draft history?"
His first draft as the Broncos OC was the 1995 Terrell Davis draft and he was in charge of watching the college running backs that year, as he said on the top 10 draft steals on NFL Network. Rick Smith wasn't in the Broncos front office until 2000.
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Old 04-18-2010   #20
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Default Re: Smith/Kubiak Draft Confidence?

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Originally Posted by Wolf6151 View Post

As for myself, I don't have much confidence in them, maybe a 3 or 4. They take to many chances on small school players, project players, and have to many bust picks in their history.
In comparison, who do you think has been doing an excellent job, along the same time period. Who do you think is the team to watch in this upcoming draft? Who are you comparing Kubiak/Smith to?

or Are you just Monday Morning our drafts?
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