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Old 03-05-2005   #1
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Default Analyzing the Texans Intent @ #13

Some weeks ago I recall either Casserly or Capers making the comment that, drafting at the #13 spot, we would get value with the pick or, if they felt it was not there, would trade out of the position.

Now with the re-signing of Payne, our starting DL is set with Walker, Payne and Smith. This seems to rule out drafting DL at #13 - it would not represent value. A player drafted this high should make an immediate impact.

It also seems the team is not overly concerned with upgrading our OL with high round talent.

Our starting DB's seem to be set with Robinson, Glenn, Earl and Coleman.

The coaches seem satisfied with our receivers : Johnson, Gaffney, and Armstrong. There have been comments that the team is not interested in another "impact" receiver.

I think the coaches feel Joppru is finally recovered and ready to make a contribution. They seem to be willing to go with our current TE's.

This seems to leave two positions where the team might concentrate their attention as to getting the most value from our first pick : LB and RB.

Although we have just signed Greenwood, the team has also given Foreman and Sharper permission to find other employment. This seems to leave a hole at one ILB position, although Wong could move inside.

I haven't heard a word regarding the RB position. This in itself is suspicious to me. The coaches, I believe, are satisfied with DD, but they just may take a look at a quality RB they feel may be more durable - but not at #13, IMO.

Finally, I would reconsider CB. With the importance of the position in today's game, and with the advancing age of Glenn, I think the team will give serious attention to this possibility with a high pick.

When everything is taken into consideration, I think, if we do not trade down, our first pick will either be CB or ILB - and between these two, might the team seriously be targeting DJ?

How about this scenerio:

If DJ is still on the board after the Bears pick at #4, the Texans offering our #13 pick (1150 pts) + our #47 pick (430 pts) + our #109 pick (76 pts) (total:1656 pts) to move up to the #5 or #6 pick.

This would leave the team with two third round picks plus maybe another 3rd for a Sharper trade. One might be used to add talent to the OL - Dan Buenning may still be on the board - and I like CB with another pick - Dominque Foxworth may still be there.

Do you think the coaches are envisioning this starting LB rotation : Babin. Greenwood, Derrick Johnson and (Wong, Peek, Cheatwood)?

For this presentation, I have not outlined my preferences, but rather what I've analyzed the Texans will do. Given all the statements and hints coming from the team, I think it's Johnson (trade up), CB (at #13) or trade down.

The only real question, in my mind, is : if a targeted CB is available at #13, do we take him or trade down. And this will be strictly determined by the value obtained in trade. There simply may not be a significant offer by another team wanting to trade up. And since we have no way of knowing this, I am assuming such an offer is not made and we take the CB. Only if all targeted CB's are off the board will we take any other, less significant, offer to trade down.
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Old 03-05-2005   #2
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the fact that we did not make a big play for LaMont Jordan makes me wonder if RB is high on our list.

ILB could be the biggest impact player for us in the draft, if Sharper leaves.

and on the DL.. they are aging and will be leaving us here eventually..or getting too old to be effective.. we need Dlinemen badly.

I think there are too many unknowns at this point to say what our intentions may be. I honestly think we could draft any player at #13.. other than QB or kicker.. and find a valid use for them.
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Old 03-05-2005   #3
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I wonder what the Texans think of Nebraska CB Fabian Washington. He burned the turf during the combines and I have seen him play a few times. He seemed like a really good player. With the 40 times he put up he might be a possible first rounder. Do you think that the Texans may trade down and pick Washington?
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Old 03-05-2005   #4
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First of all, I don't think that Casserly will trade up for a higher 1st round pick. The asking price will be way to high. Yes, they will want an inside linebacker, but other than DJ, none are rated that high.

I think they will take Justin Miller at #13. He's a Dunta Robinson clone, AND he's a dangerous punt return specialist. Bye-Bye J.J. Moses
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Old 03-05-2005   #5
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I'm not so sure I'd trade down to pick up Washington in the first round. There are alot of good CBs in this draft, and it's among the deepest positions in this draft. I'd say you've got Jones, Rolle, Rogers, and Miller ahead of him. Washington will probably go around the same time as Webster, McFadden, and Jackson. He might be the 5th CB, or possibly the 4th, but I think if I'm taking a CB and I'm not taking Rolle, Rogers, Miller, or Jones I might wait until the 2nd or 3rd to pick one up since they're all pretty closely rated. I love his speed, I think he ran around 4.25 or something like that, and he may be a steal for whatever team picks him up in the 2nd or 3rd. I'm just not sure I'd take him at the end of the 1st.
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Old 03-05-2005   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grid
the fact that we did not make a big play for LaMont Jordan makes me wonder if RB is high on our list.
You really should not use that as a watermark as to the teams RB situation. Jordan signed a 5 year deal at $27.5 million with $11 million in guaranteed money and $17.8 million over the first three years of the contract, including $15.7 million in bonuses. No way we give a back that kind of money with Dom Davis as our starter. The draft is a much better place to find a partner in the backfield with DD.
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Old 03-05-2005   #7
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Originally Posted by Nawzer
I wonder what the Texans think of Nebraska CB Fabian Washington. He burned the turf during the combines and I have seen him play a few times. He seemed like a really good player. With the 40 times he put up he might be a possible first rounder. Do you think that the Texans may trade down and pick Washington?
I targeted Washington as a player I liked, more than a month ago. I had hoped he would be available in the 3rd. I agree with you, now, that he could be picked in the first. He'll definately be off the boards by the end of the 2nd round. He's about the same size as Robinson, and the only serious knock on him, that I'm aware of, is that he's weak in run support.

Much of my previous assessment applies equally to any trade down pick - except it becomes more affordable and reasonable to let the selection sit on the bench for a year or two. What bothers me about statements coming out of the Texans' office is that there doesn't seem to be any intent to draft OL in the first round. Since this is the most pressing need on the team, I would hope this is a slight overstatement and they would target Baas somewhere around the 19 spot. Depending on what happens during the FA signings, the Ravens' biggest need seems to be OG and they could take Baas at #20. Since the OL is a more pressing, immediate need for the Texans than CB, I would think this is a more reasonable scenerio. But absent us taking Baas with a lower 1st round pick, your suggestion of taking Washington is certainly within the realm of possibilities. With the signing of Payne, it seems our DL is set with Walker, Payne and Walker; and seems to make the likelyhood of drafting DL in the 1st round much less a possibility. But if the Texans don't draft for need, anything is within the realm of possibility.
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Old 03-05-2005   #8
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Dont rule out the posibility of taking a D-Lineman @ 13 . Walker is aging , Payne is again coming back from injury , Jerry Deloach is a questionmark with his pending Unrestricted free-agency as is Corey Sears. Leaving only four D-Linemen on the roster . In the Texasn system they like to constantly rotate 5-6 players at the three line positions . Four players at three positions is not much depth any way you look at it.
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Old 03-05-2005   #9
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i know it doesnt MEAN that we arent interested in RB.. just makes me WONDER if we arent. I would have at least expected us to be a player for Jordan, but I didnt even hear that we had talked to him.
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Old 03-05-2005   #10
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Originally Posted by Grid
I would have at least expected us to be a player for Jordan, but I didnt even hear that we had talked to him.
Why do you think we would be even remotely interested in spending that kind of money on a back in a rbbc?
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Old 03-05-2005   #11
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First of all, I don't think that Casserly will trade up for a higher 1st round pick. The asking price will be way to high...
My thinking is that Capers has always made his LB's the focal point of his defenses. Johnson - an immediate impact player - would solidify the third position - Babin and Greenwood solidifying the first and second.

Considering what he paid to move up for Babin, if the price is only our second round pick and some second day picks, the price is not too much. There is much talk about trading down, not much talk about trading up and it seems the Texans could be in a favorable position. Also remember, we might get a third round pick, or almost a certain forth round pick, in any Sharper trade.

In terms of publicity, and fan support, this would be much like the Oilers taking Campbell. Given the opportunity, it may be too much to pass on.
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Old 03-05-2005   #12
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Like Marcus, I don't see us trading up this year. The only player that might be worth trading up for is DJ, & we need depth much more than we need one impact player.

Contrary to what some posters want, there's not one DL worth the #13 pick (including Spears). However, trading down would make it a whole new ball game.

The only players that I can see the Texans considering at #13 are:

WR: Braylon Edwards, Troy Willamson, Mike Williams

RB: Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson

CB: Antrel Rolle, Justin Miller, Pac-Man Jones, Carlos Rogers

LB: DJ, Thomas Davis

OT: Alex Barron

And I believe that their order of preference might be:

1) DJ
2) Braylon Edwards
3) Ronnie Brown
4) Thomas Davis
5) Antrel Rolle
6) Justin Miller
7) Alex Barron
8) Troy Williamson
9) Pac-Man Jones
10) Mike Williams
11) Cedric Benson
12) Carlos Rogers

But, that's just my opinion.
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Old 03-05-2005   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grid
i know it doesnt MEAN that we arent interested in RB.. just makes me WONDER if we arent. I would have at least expected us to be a player for Jordan, but I didnt even hear that we had talked to him.


How much $$$$$ did he get in his new deal ? 5 year $27.5 million . That is why the Texans had no interest in him , too many dollars .

I would expect the Texans to take a RB at some point in this draft , probably rounds 3-5. There is always the possibility they take one in the first round IF one of the top three (Ronnie Brown , Cedric Benson or Williams) are still there and they have no players rated above them (most likely they would trade down in this scenirio).
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Old 03-05-2005   #14
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Because I figure that Casserly probably would not have been made aware of the details of the Oakland contract.. and also that we have showed alot of interest in Jordan in the past.. and that we would probably have offered him at least the same that we offered Greenwood.

Im not saying that I would have expected Casserly to match the deal that oakland made.. Im saying that we heard nothing of a visit or any talks going on.. which leads me to beleive that either Casserly knew we couldnt afford him, or we decided we werent interested.

which one was it? I dont know.. but it makes me wonder if RB is very high on our list.

geez its like the spanish inquisition in here.
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Old 03-05-2005   #15
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No point in paying that much to Jordan when he would just be a backup. He would be making A LOT more than DD and there is no reason to spend that much when we can just draft a RB in the later rounds and have him develop. I think that we will try to draft DJ or the best CB available if we cant trade up.
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Old 03-05-2005   #16
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Originally Posted by corrosion
Dont rule out the posibility of taking a D-Lineman @ 13 . Walker is aging , Payne is again coming back from injury , Jerry Deloach is a questionmark with his pending Unrestricted free-agency as is Corey Sears. Leaving only four D-Linemen on the roster . In the Texasn system they like to constantly rotate 5-6 players at the three line positions . Four players at three positions is not much depth any way you look at it.
I don't entirely rule it out, I just no longer consider it a certainty, or even a likely possibility. Given the salaries for W, P and S, and the contract for the #13 player taken, I just think the Texans' reasoning will be that they can get more value by looking in other directions.

Your reasoning makes a better case for selecting a CB at #13 and then taking a DLman in the 2nd round, maybe Castillo.
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Old 03-05-2005   #17
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btw I agree he cost too much :P
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Old 03-05-2005   #18
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Baas would be a reach at any pick in the first round, unless picked by the Patriots. We are going to pick Justin Miller CB(1), Chris Canty DE(2), Roscoe Parrish WR(3a) and Ricjie Incognito OT(3b)
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Old 03-05-2005   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hottoddie
...The only players that I can see the Texans considering at #13 are: WR: Braylon Edwards, Troy Willamson, Mike Williams...
Unless it is misdirection, I believe there have been comments from the Texans front office, to the effect, that there is no interest in drafting another impact receiver. Capers and Casserly are full of surprises, but I do think a receiver at #13 to be very unlikely.
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Old 03-05-2005   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beastlyman2003
Baas would be a reach at any pick in the first round, unless picked by the Patriots...
what is your definition of "a reach". By draft day, Baas will probably be the #1 rated OG and will also be the #1 rated OC. Comparisons with past drafts would rate Baas a solid pick for the bottom of the first at either position. Faine was taken in the first and Baas would be a better center. The fact he can play both positions so effectively raises his value and Baas will offer value from the 20th pick onward. If a player offers value, then he is not a "reach".
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