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Old 03-08-2010   #1
keyser
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Default 2010 Compensatory Draft prediction

There is one guy I have followed for several years who has, by FAR, the best analysis of compensatory picks I've seen (the actual NFL formula is shrouded in mystery). He released his 2010 predictions of compensatory picks HERE today. He's been very accurate in the past, and has an analysis here.

Of course, Houston won't get any picks. As for other AFC South teams, Tennessee should get a 3rd round pick for Haynesworth, plus a couple of 7th rounders, Jacksonville should get a 6th, and Indy a 7th.
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Old 03-08-2010   #2
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Default Re: 2010 Compensatory Draft prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by keyser View Post
There is one guy I have followed for several years who has, by FAR, the best analysis of compensatory picks I've seen (the actual NFL formula is shrouded in mystery). He released his 2010 predictions of compensatory picks HERE today. He's been very accurate in the past, and has an analysis here.

Of course, Houston won't get any picks. As for other AFC South teams, Tennessee should get a 3rd round pick for Haynesworth, plus a couple of 7th rounders, Jacksonville should get a 6th, and Indy a 7th.
I've seen him off another thread. I thought I recently read that we get a 3rd round for compensatory next year? Can anyone verify this? I am very weak on this type deal.
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Old 03-08-2010   #3
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Default Re: 2010 Compensatory Draft prediction

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I've seen him off another thread. I thought I recently read that we get a 3rd round for compensatory next year? Can anyone verify this? I am very weak on this type deal.
If we don't sign any new free agents ourselves (not very likely...), and the compensatory picks next year work the same as they have in the past (might not be the case - a new CBA or work stoppage might change this), then we would probably get a 3rd round compensatory pick for Dunta. If we bring in FAs ourselves, though, they kind of offset each other via a semi-complicated formula, but we would probably get a lot less than a 3rd, if anything.
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Old 03-09-2010   #4
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Default Re: 2010 Compensatory Draft prediction

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Originally Posted by keyser View Post
If we don't sign any new free agents ourselves (not very likely...), and the compensatory picks next year work the same as they have in the past (might not be the case - a new CBA or work stoppage might change this), then we would probably get a 3rd round compensatory pick for Dunta. If we bring in FAs ourselves, though, they kind of offset each other via a semi-complicated formula, but we would probably get a lot less than a 3rd, if anything.
Considering that we are likely to lose 7 or 8 FAs:
Khari Campbell
Rex Grossman
Chaun Thompson
Bryan Pittman
Chris Brown
and others

in addition to:
Dunta
Chester Pitts (probably)

2011, we will almost definitely receive a 3rd or 4th (for Dunta), as well as 1 or 2 in the 6th-7th rounds.
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Old 03-09-2010   #5
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Default Re: 2010 Compensatory Draft prediction

It all depends on how the contracts work themselves out and how good the respective p layers do.

If the guys we lose dont sign on other teams and play well, it doesn't help us
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Old 03-09-2010   #6
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Default Re: 2010 Compensatory Draft prediction

Doesn't the language refer to "significant" losses? Of those above, I see DR, Pitts and maybe Grossman as getting significant deals with other teams. Anyway, if they leave and we get any kind of pick it is gravy with the chicken.
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Old 03-09-2010   #7
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Default Re: 2010 Compensatory Draft prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
Considering that we are likely to lose 7 or 8 FAs:
Khari Campbell
Rex Grossman
Chaun Thompson
Bryan Pittman
Chris Brown
and others

in addition to:
Dunta
Chester Pitts (probably)

2011, we will almost definitely receive a 3rd or 4th (for Dunta), as well as 1 or 2 in the 6th-7th rounds.
I doubt all of the above free agents qualify for draft pick compensation. If you dig into AdamJT'site, you can probably find out how he determines a qualifying free agent. Or, he may just post an explanation here, as he has this thread linked to his blog.

It's unlikely anyone other than Dunta and Pitts will qualify for compensation. Some of these guys might not make it onto NFL 80 man rosters. Chris Brown? I don't think so. And I still think Pitts re-signs here to a one year, make good contract. The Texans would basically have to sit out free agency in order to get a compensatory pick. I hope that doesn't happen.
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