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Old 03-08-2010   #1
gtexan02
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Default Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

Dunta left us as a very highly paid UFA, which means we could receive a compensatory pick in next years NFL draft. His contract was 6 years 50 million with 25 guaranteed I think.

Heres what I read about the nfl compensatory pick procedure:
Quote:
Compensatory picks
In addition to the 32 picks in each round, there are a total of 32 picks awarded at the ends of Rounds 3 through 7. These picks, known as "compensatory picks," are awarded to teams that have lost more qualifying free agents than they gained the previous year in free agency. Teams that gain and lose the same number of players but lose higher-valued players than they gain also can be awarded a pick, but only in the seventh round, after the other compensatory picks. Compensatory picks cannot be traded, and the placement of the picks is determined by a proprietary formula based on the player's salary, playing time, and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor. So, for example, a team that lost a linebacker who signed for $2.5 million per year in free agency might get a sixth-round compensatory pick, while a team that lost a wide receiver who signed for $5 million per year might receive a fourth-round pick.

If fewer than 32 such picks are awarded, the remaining picks are awarded in the order in which teams would pick in a hypothetical eighth round of the draft (These are known as "supplemental compensatory selections").

Compensatory picks are awarded each year at the NFL annual meeting which is held at the end of March; typically, about three or four weeks before the draft.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFL_Dra...ensatory_picks


Now, if we sign Bodden, does that mean we lose out on that compensatory pick?


Just something to think about. If we sign Bodden, its kind of like trading a 3rd or 4th for him in next years draft.
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Old 03-08-2010   #2
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

Interesting, that puts a new perspective on things. But, since it's a selection we didn't have in the 1st place, I'd give up a 3rd or 4th round pick (that we don't already have) for him. It's not like we are giving up our real picks.
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Old 03-08-2010   #3
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gtexan02 View Post
Dunta left us as a very highly paid UFA, which means we could receive a compensatory pick in next years NFL draft. His contract was 6 years 50 million with 25 guaranteed I think.

Heres what I read about the nfl compensatory pick procedure:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFL_Dra...ensatory_picks


Now, if we sign Bodden, does that mean we lose out on that compensatory pick?


Just something to think about. If we sign Bodden, its kind of like trading a 3rd or 4th for him in next years draft.
Very true, I was thinking about this the other day. I think he would most definitely be a "major" free agent signing and we would not be eligible for a compensatory pick. I also think it would be very risky not to sign a FA to try and get a mid - late round pick in next years draft to take a "project". We're in a win now mode and Bodden came make a contribution in the short term and long term.

As far as trading a future draft pick for him... you can look at it this way (from an opportunity cost standpoint), but the good news is we wouldn't "lose" any of our draft picks, we'd still have the 7 standard picks. we just would get any extra.
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Old 03-08-2010   #4
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

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Originally Posted by Ole Miss Texan View Post
Very true, I was thinking about this the other day. I think he would most definitely be a "major" free agent signing and we would not be eligible for a compensatory pick. I also think it would be very risky not to sign a FA to try and get a mid - late round pick in next years draft to take a "project". We're in a win now mode and Bodden came make a contribution in the short term and long term.

As far as trading a future draft pick for him... you can look at it this way (from an opportunity cost standpoint), but the good news is we wouldn't "lose" any of our draft picks, we'd still have the 7 standard picks. we just would get any extra.
Yeah, teams that abuse this system are the teams that draft well. Baltimore, NE, Pitt, SD, Philly, ect..., who can afford to let guys go, cause they have a guy to plug in. Or they trade picks cause they know they are getting compesitory picks and aquire good talent for almost nothing. Baltimore is set to get a 3rd for Scott, so they lost nada.
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Old 03-08-2010   #5
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

The key thing to remember is that the Texans need to lose more unrestricted free agents than it signs. this a net player gained less net players lost, the quality of the players is not calculated until that requirement is fulfilled. It does not matter the level of the free agents that Texans sign until that hurdle is cleared. Signing dollars are one part of the formula, but player perfromance and team record matter also.
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Old 03-08-2010   #6
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

There's a good chance that if the Texans do much of anything in the FA market, they will lose out on the (probably good) compensatory pick that Dunta would have given them. We don't have that many people out as FAs - the ones I can think of are Pitts, Busing, Chris Brown, and probably some others who almost never played. Signing Bodden, Wade Smith, or probably any other reasonably high-end free agent would probably offset the Dunta loss, resulting in a lower (or maybe no) pick for Dunta.

But, at best, we're looking at a 2011 3rd round pick. And, that could easily change with a new CBA. I wouldn't think that the Texans' FO is going to be that focused on whether they lose that potential pick, and it's almost certainly in our interest to get the players we want, rather than hope that we would have some compensatory pick given to us next year.
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Old 03-08-2010   #7
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
The key thing to remember is that the Texans need to lose more unrestricted free agents than it signs. this a net player gained less net players lost, the quality of the players is not calculated until that requirement is fulfilled. It does not matter the level of the free agents that Texans sign until that hurdle is cleared. Signing dollars are one part of the formula, but player perfromance and team record matter also.
This is true, but I think the great thing is that Bodden will likely sign a much less lucrative contract than Dunta did. If that happens, then he may be evaluated as a 4th-5th round pick and Dunta would surely get a 3rd round rating. So as long as one more guy gets away from the Texans (Pitts, Grossman, Brown, Pittman) they will probably end up with an extra 3rd round pick. Not a bad consolation prize for losing Dunta.

Of course, this is all based on the previous CBA agreement, which may change or be removed in the future CBA.
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Old 03-08-2010   #8
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

Quote:
Originally Posted by keyser View Post
There's a good chance that if the Texans do much of anything in the FA market, they will lose out on the (probably good) compensatory pick that Dunta would have given them. We don't have that many people out as FAs - the ones I can think of are Pitts, Busing, Chris Brown, and probably some others who almost never played. Signing Bodden, Wade Smith, or probably any other reasonably high-end free agent would probably offset the Dunta loss, resulting in a lower (or maybe no) pick for Dunta.

But, at best, we're looking at a 2011 3rd round pick. And, that could easily change with a new CBA. I wouldn't think that the Texans' FO is going to be that focused on whether they lose that potential pick, and it's almost certainly in our interest to get the players we want, rather than hope that we would have some compensatory pick given to us next year.

Good posting. I doubt that many teams use the future possible picks to stop them from signing players who can help them today. If the formula was more direct and for the current draft year it would be different.
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Old 03-08-2010   #9
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
This is true, but I think the great thing is that Bodden will likely sign a much less lucrative contract than Dunta did. If that happens, then he may be evaluated as a 4th-5th round pick and Dunta would surely get a 3rd round rating. So as long as one more guy gets away from the Texans (Pitts, Grossman, Brown, Pittman) they will probably end up with an extra 3rd round pick. Not a bad consolation prize for losing Dunta.

Of course, this is all based on the previous CBA agreement, which may change or be removed in the future CBA.
The poster listed in Keyser's thread in NFL section does the best job of replicating the formula as we can find on the net, but there are still head shakers every year. One Example is that the Steelers did NOT get a 3rd for Alan Faneca think it was 5th!!! At other times your have seen back-up players with modest contracts draw the same pick as Faneca.
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Old 03-08-2010   #10
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

FYI - Texans 2010 Unrestricted Free Agents - A few have already signed.

Dunta Robinson ATL
Chester Pitts
Kevin Walter HOU
Bryan Pittman
Ephraim Salaam
Brian Russell
Tim Bulman
Nick Ferguson
Rex Grossman
Matt Turk HOU
Chris Brown
Chaun Thompson
Jeff Zgonina
Khary Campbell
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Old 03-08-2010   #11
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

WHAT? We stand a chance of losing Sexy Rexy the Gross Man? This is horrible! He must be signed at all costs!
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Old 03-08-2010   #12
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
The poster listed in Keyser's thread in NFL section does the best job of replicating the formula as we can find on the net, but there are still head shakers every year. One Example is that the Steelers did NOT get a 3rd for Alan Faneca think it was 5th!!! At other times your have seen back-up players with modest contracts draw the same pick as Faneca.
Yeah, it's not a public formula, so there are some odd ones out there. Faneca was an All-pro in 2008... However, with Dunta getting the 2nd largest contract in FA so far, and assuming he starts all 16 games for the Falcons, he should merit a 3rd rounder. At least we can hope
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Old 03-08-2010   #13
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

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WHAT? We stand a chance of losing Sexy Rexy the Gross Man? This is horrible! He must be signed at all costs!
Are you drinking again?
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Old 03-08-2010   #14
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

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Are you drinking again?
Just coffee. AFter staying tuned to this stuff all day, my sense of reality is wearing thin though.
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Old 03-08-2010   #15
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

The system is pretty shadowy, but there are some known rules to it (though all this may be out the window after this year with the expiration of the CBA).

1. 32 compensatory picks are awarded, so it's basically an 8th round sprinkled into rounds 3-7.
2. The last two compensatory picks, by rule, automatically go to the teams that would have drafted #1 and #2 had there been a regular 8th round. Thus, Detroit will pick Mr. Irrelevant and the Rams will have the next-to-last pick.
3. The other 30 picks are awarded on the following general basis:
(a) picks are awarded on the basis of the value of a lost free agent where there is not an offsetting free agent signed by that team.
(b) once all of the first group is worked through, teams that lost the most free agency value get the remaining picks. Last year, only one team got a pick under this part, and I believe there have only been something like 13-15 such picks awarded in the 15 years this system has operated.

"Value" is determined by a top secret formula the league has. There are some folks on the internet who've gotten very good at predicting the picks, but nobody has nailed it exactly.

If we lose no one other than Dunta and sign Bodden, then odds are we get no compensatory picks. If we sign nobody, we are in line for a high compensatory pick for losing Dunta. I definitely think Bodden is worth signing at the cost of the 97-100 pick (or the 133-136 pick if the formula puts Dunta's value in the fourth round) in 2011. And there may not even be a compensatory pick formula for the 2011 draft because of the CBA uncertainty.

An interesting question is what happens if we lose a guy like Pitts (along with Dunta) and Bodden. I do not know if Bodden cancels out the lowest value we lost (Pitts, in this example) or if he cancels out Dunta because he may be closer in value. That's part of the mystery of the formula.

At this point, I would not let the possibility of 2011 compensatory picks factor into the judgment unless we're considering signing a completely marginal player who could, by rule, cancel out losing Dunta. But if we think a player is useful at all to us, go for it. Bodden certainly fits that category.
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Old 03-08-2010   #16
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

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Interesting, that puts a new perspective on things. But, since it's a selection we didn't have in the 1st place, I'd give up a 3rd or 4th round pick (that we don't already have) for him. It's not like we are giving up our real picks.
I am in this boat, I am not worried about if we lose a pick or not(extra). We need a starter at cornerback. It is too bad Bennet has lost whatever he had his rookie year, but with the Colts in the division and that offense, we need CB's .

Hell I'd be ok with getting Bodden and drafting a CB /FS

I don't want to see busing out on the field
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Old 03-08-2010   #17
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

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Are you drinking again?
Again? When did he stop?
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Old 03-08-2010   #18
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

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I am in this boat, I am not worried about if we lose a pick or not(extra). We need a starter at cornerback. It is too bad Bennet has lost whatever he had his rookie year, but with the Colts in the division and that offense, we need CB's .

Hell I'd be ok with getting Bodden and drafting a CB /FS

I don't want to see busing out on the field
Field? I would rather he not be on the roster.
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Old 03-08-2010   #19
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Default Re: Drob and Bodden. What would it mean?

I'll gladly take a starting CB rather than an extra 3rd round next year.
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