Warner v Brady--Playoffs

[HoustonFrog]

Interesting article on ESPN insider(so you won't be able to get the link unless you are an insider but I'll post full article). Similar, in a way, to the Brady/Manning one, because Warner and Manning had superior weapons during SB runs while Brady kind of did it with cast-offs. But it does make a strong case for how good Warner has been and puts some of the stats over the last decade in perspective. Should be an interesting debate.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insid...ory?id=4816127

Here are the playoff statistics for two quarterbacks. Look at them and let us know which of the two you'd want quarterbacking your favorite team:

Comp Att Comp % Yds Yds/Att TD INT
Player A 395 637 62.0 4108 6.45 28 15
Player B 290 436 66.5 3747 8.59 31 13

It's not a particularly hard question. Player B completes passes at a ridiculous rate and throws for better than 2 yards per attempt more than Player A. About the only thing Player A has going for him is a slightly better interception rate. Over the course of a full season with 550 attempts each, Player B would throw about three more interceptions than Player A, but he'd complete 25 more passes and throw for just under 1,200 more passing yards than Player A.

If we polled 100 fans as to whether they'd rather have Player A or Player B, the only ones choosing Player A would be the ones who thought it was a trick question. In a way, it is; if we told those same 100 fans to pick a playoff quarterback without giving them any statistics and let them choose between Tom Brady (Player A) and Kurt Warner (Player B), Warner would have only the trick question people on his side.

Of course, there's something inflated to Warner's numbers -- he's played almost his entire playoff career in one dome or another, and that does help a lot. Then again, playing in the cold of the Northeast also hurts Brady's opposition, and he's enjoyed a better defense than Warner has: Over their playoff careers, Warner's defense has allowed 23.8 points per game, while Brady's defense has allowed only 19.0. And it's not Brady who raises his game in the playoffs, since his quarterback rating falls from a regular-season mark of 93.3 to 85.5; it's Warner, who goes from a regular-season quarterback rating of 93.7 to a playoff figure of 104.6.

So then, what's the case for picking Brady? Some would say his playoff record; Brady is 14-4 (.778 winning percentage), while Warner is 9-3 (.750); that's less than a difference of one win every two seasons. Furthermore, Sunday proved what an absurd proposition basing quarterback value on playoff wins and losses is. Did Joe Flacco really play better than Aaron Rodgers? Had Rodgers hit a wide-open Greg Jennings on the first play from scrimmage in overtime, the Packers would have advanced without Warner getting a chance to respond and Warner would've had a loss hung on his record. Did Flacco play better than Warner? Absolutely not.

In reality, Brady's reputation as a "clutch" quarterback rests upon his two game-winning Super Bowl drives (both of which, by the way, came under a roof). There are mitigating factors to each; the Rams played for overtime with an absurd prevent defense that gave Brady -- at that point a quarterback with a highly erratic deep ball and an offense built around throwing for short, low-risk completions underneath -- the opportunity to pick up first downs on passes to halfback J.R. Redmond. His second game-winning drive, against the Panthers, came immediately after Panthers kicker John Kasay dumped a kickoff out of bounds, giving the Patriots the ball at the 40-yard line. Brady's drive wasn't exactly "The Drive"; it went for 36 yards before Adam Vinatieri kicked a game-winning field goal.

Brady still deserves credit for his two game-winning drives, of course, but what about Warner? In Super Bowl XXXIV, his final drive was one play: a 73-yard touchdown pass to Isaac Bruce, breaking a tie score and giving the Rams a 23-16 lead. It's forgotten now, of course, because of Steve McNair's amazing drive that followed and the game's spectacular ending. Against the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXVI, Warner's final drive went 51 yards in 20 seconds, ending with a game-tying 28-yard touchdown pass to Ricky Proehl. Brady followed that with his heroics. Finally, in Super Bowl XLII, with 2:58 left in the game, Warner completed a 13-point comeback and gave the Cardinals a 23-20 lead by throwing a 64-yard touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald. He stood helpless on the sidelines as Ben Roethlisberger drove down the field for a game-winning touchdown, and couldn't do the impossible in picking up the 89 yards needed to win the game with only 35 seconds left.

Warner's biggest crime in Super Bowls, it turns out, has been giving the other team too much time to score after his clutch play. He almost lost on Sunday because his kicker couldn't hit the chip shot Warner had set up.

Don't get us wrong; Tom Brady is a great quarterback. He was No. 1 in our DYAR rankings this season, putting up fantastic numbers masked by one of the toughest pass-defense schedules a quarterback has faced in years (perhaps the toughest). He's a great quarterback in the playoffs, too.

But Kurt Warner has been the better playoff quarterback, and it's hard to see how there's a debate that doesn't involve mythology and the media.

[Goatcheese]

Wait, ESPiN is just now figuring out that Wins and Rings are not QB stats?

Originally Posted by HoustonFrog

Interesting article on ESPN insider(so you won't be able to get the link unless you are an insider but I'll post full article). Similar, in a way, to the Brady/Manning one, because Warner and Manning had superior weapons during SB runs while Brady kind of did it with cast-offs. But it does make a strong case for how good Warner has been and puts some of the stats over the last decade in perspective. Should be an interesting debate.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insid...ory?id=4816127

Great article man. Rep your way! Very interesting stuff.

I have personally always leaned towards Brady and perhaps have just been too swayed by the media. The stat that really got me was Brady's regular season QB rating and his playoff QB rating compared with Warner's regular season and playoff QB ratings. Incredible stuff. I guess I never realized just how good Kurt Warner has been in the playoffs.

Now, the only thing against Kurt Warner, IMO, is he has been throwing to some of the greatest WRs in football. When he was with St. Louis, he was playing catch with Isaac Bruce and Tory Holt. Then he goes to Arizona and gets Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. He has also had better running games than Brady has EVER enjoyed with Marshall Faulk (one of the greatest of all time) and Tim Hightower (very underrated back)/Edge.

On the other hand, Brady was throwing the ball to guys like Deion Branch (looked good with Brady but terrible without), David Givens, Troy Brown, Daniel Graham, and Kevin Faulk at RB. Certainly nowhere near the talent that Warner has been surrounded by. It gets evened out a little more since Brady had the better defense, but regardless both have been exceptional playoff QBs.

[HoustonFrog]

Originally Posted by Ckw5814

Great article man. Rep your way! Very interesting stuff.

I have personally always leaned towards Brady and perhaps have just been too swayed by the media. The stat that really got me was Brady's regular season QB rating and his playoff QB rating compared with Warner's regular season and playoff QB ratings. Incredible stuff. I guess I never realized just how good Kurt Warner has been in the playoffs.

Now, the only thing against Kurt Warner, IMO, is he has been throwing to some of the greatest WRs in football. When he was with St. Louis, he was playing catch with Isaac Bruce and Tory Holt. Then he goes to Arizona and gets Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. He has also had better running games than Brady has EVER enjoyed with Marshall Faulk (one of the greatest of all time) and Tim Hightower (very underrated back)/Edge.

On the other hand, Brady was throwing the ball to guys like Deion Branch (looked good with Brady but terrible without), David Givens, Troy Brown, Daniel Graham, and Kevin Faulk at RB. Certainly nowhere near the talent that Warner has been surrounded by. It gets evened out a little more since Brady had the better defense, but regardless both have been exceptional playoff QBs.

Well worded!! Just what I was alluding to in my original paragraph. Brady's main argument to me was just that....doing it with no one at RB or WR while Manning had Edge, Harrison, Clark and Wayne and Warner had his crew. BUT I was just taken aback by how good Warner's stats were. The real argument in there doesn't cheapen Brady as much as makes you go "Wow" at Warner.

[eriadoc]

I've always been a Warner fan. It's hard not to be, what with the grocery store to QB story and all. The guy has taken full advantage of his opportunities, but above all, he's a lot better than most people seem to give him credit for. IMO, he's a surefire HOF QB. He's been to three SBs and the man is a beast in the postseason. I'm hoping he goes again this year, but with a defense that gives up 45 points, maybe that won't happen. And when they lose, Warner will end up with the L on his record, like he actually lost it.

[El Tejano]

I'm going to look at the head to head action between the two in the playoffs and give credit to Brady's defense. If you look at the Super Bowl, it was Brady's D that allowed him to get the ball last so that he could go on to put his team in position to win the Super Bowl. Also Brady's defense gave him two great INTs by Ty Law to help win that game otherwise Warner wins that game.

And througout the time the two have been in the playoffs at the same time, Brady's defense has always been better.

Brady's D wasn't quite that good this year and Brady will be watching Kurt Warner play the Saints this week.