Beerlover 2010 Pre-Senior Bowl Mock Draft

[JB]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

Over the course of NFL history the big back theory has largely been proven wrong. If you are looking for short yardage you need a RB with vision and an ability to make short space corrections. If all you needed was size teams would be running their FBs in short yardage situations. Instead there are guys like Emmitt who yes had a great OL but took full advantage of it on his own fantastic vision and his short space ability to turn a body or shoulder tackle into an arm tackle and then run through it or to reach out and grab an arm and redirect it as he ran past. There's a reason the single season TD records haven't been held by big RBs. Only 2 of the top 10 are over 225 lbs and none over 230 lbs. I use Emmitt as the primary example because he was never a CJ scoring off speed. Emmitt was a power RB who ran right up the gut and played at his heaviest at 215 lbs.

But he had terrific leg drive and could push the pile when he needed a yard

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by badboy

Oh.. how many TDs from Red Zone or first and short did he get up the middle?

all I can remember is about 9 TD's can't remember how or where he got them point is he got them.

[Honoring Earl 34]

Originally Posted by Goldensilence

IMO that's just as much on playcalling. When you've got a guy with the speed Slaton has why not have him try and make the corner on a toss or stretch play?

Icak did a great job of pointing out that some of the best goal line backs aren't the ones that weigh 2 tons.

To me a power running game is more on the OL then it is on the size of a back.

All time TD leaders .

1. Emmitt Smith 164 1990-2004 2TM
2. LaDainian Tomlinson (30) 138 2001-2009 sdg
3. Marcus Allen+ 123 1982-1997 2TM
4. Walter Payton+ 110 1975-1987 chi
5. Jim Brown+ 106 1957-1965 cle
6. John Riggins+ 104 1971-1985 2TM
7. Shaun Alexander 100 2000-2008 2TM
Marshall Faulk 100 1994-2005 2TM
9. Barry Sanders+ 99 1989-1998 det
10. Jerome Bettis 91 1993-2005 2TM
Franco Harris+

[infantrycak]

Originally Posted by JB

But he had terrific leg drive and could push the pile when he needed a yard

Sure and so do Ray Rice, MJD, so did Payton. That kind of leg drive is not unique to people over 225 lbs either. I'd even argue what you typically see in 230+ RBs are taller guys with correspondingly longer legs and that shorter legs are better at that kind of leg drive just like huge wingspan guys like LTs struggle in the 225 lb lift at the combine.

As an aside, after the Cowboys 1st SB win Aikman, Irwin and Emmitt had a competition to get to the lowest body fat and Emmitt lost a few lbs. I can't remember which was which but Irwin and Emmitt got to 5 and 7% with Aikman bringing up the rear at 10%.

[Jackie Chiles]

I think Spiller would be a real nice fit because he can can make explosive plays in the running and passing game. Pair him up with Slaton and give Foster some time as well so none of them get too worn down. I doubt he lasts till 20 though. Starting to warm up to Best a bit myself. For the first time since Kubiak arrived I won't be shocked if they go RB in round 1. I don't think its the favorite but I believe its a possibility.

[JB]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

Sure and so do Ray Rice, MJD, so did Payton. That kind of leg drive is not unique to people over 225 lbs either. I'd even argue what you typically see in 230+ RBs are taller guys with correspondingly longer legs and that shorter legs are better at that kind of leg drive just like huge wingspan guys like LTs struggle in the 225 lb lift at the combine.

As an aside, after the Cowboys 1st SB win Aikman, Irwin and Emmitt had a competition to get to the lowest body fat and Emmitt lost a few lbs. I can't remember which was which but Irwin and Emmitt got to 5 and 7% with Aikman bringing up the rear at 10%.

I agree and imo that is the type of runner we need. Someone who runs with a lower center of gravity that will not be brought down with an arm tackle. I am starting to think of someone like Ben Tate.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

Over the course of NFL history the big back theory has largely been proven wrong. If you are looking for short yardage you need a RB with vision and an ability to make short space corrections. If all you needed was size teams would be running their FBs in short yardage situations. Instead there are guys like Emmitt who yes had a great OL but took full advantage of it on his own fantastic vision and his short space ability to turn a body or shoulder tackle into an arm tackle and then run through it or to reach out and grab an arm and redirect it as he ran past. There's a reason the single season TD records haven't been held by big RBs. Only 2 of the top 10 are over 225 lbs and none over 230 lbs. I use Emmitt as the primary example because he was never a CJ scoring off speed. Emmitt was a power RB who ran right up the gut and played at his heaviest at 215 lbs.

I agree but just don't see and Emmett type back in draft. Of course, that probably could have been said about him also. I think a Gerhart who has shown his skill level consistently would do better than a Best for example. Just my opinion. We have had ony a modicum of success with free agent big backs but all of them (that I can recall anyway) have had injury problems. I'd like to see what someone like TG or even Dwyer could do behind a stronger Houston oline. Mark Ingram could be a good back for us with his style if he were elig.

[rmartin65]

I just cant get behind the Spiller pick. Slaton is our explosive back. And how many of the little speed backs work out? You cite CJ, but there is a myriad of busts of little speed guys.

Other than that though, your draft looks good. I would not be surprised if this is how it goes down.

[playa465]

#20 Houston - C.J.Spiller, RB Clemson

I'm still not fond of this pick, for some reason I don't get excited about this guy when he fits the Slaton mold

#28 Dallas - Terrence Cody, NT Alabama

Interesting that Mt Cody falls here especially when they have a beast in Ratliff who is still young...I cringe at that thought of Myers going up against either

[steelbtexan]

BL as you know I'm a fix the trenches kind of guy. Smithiak never follow this philosopy and the Texans continually have RZ woes.

If Iupati or Campbell fall to the Texans They should run to the podium with their card to take one of them.

Campbell is one of the most physically gifted OT's to come out in a long time. (doubt he will fall to 20) I was a proponent of drafting J.Gaither (who's also from Maryland) in the supp. draft. Character ? kept Smithiak from drafting Gaither just like they will Campbell. Gaither will be a 10 yr starter barring injuries.

I'm hoping Dwyer who is the type of RB I'm looking for falls to the Texans in the 2nd rd.

Good catch on Miller, I dont know much about him but he's playing in the East/West Shrine. I will watch him.

I think the draft may fall a little differently than your mock because teams will reach more than you did to meet a need.

Great job on slotting the most talented players where they should go.

Great job, look forward to your post all star/scouting combine mocks.

[SAMURAITEXAN]

Beerlover, I am assuming you will come up with Post-Senior Bowl Mock Darft as well right? You better, because I am looking forward to it.

[Wolf6151]

Originally Posted by JB

What do you guys think of Ben Tate? Should be available in the 3rd or 4th.

I like Ben Tate and Montario Hardesty both should be good picks in the 3rd round and great value picks in the 4th round. Tate has good power and speed.

[Texaninlild]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

Emmitt Smith, Walter Peyton, LT, Priest Holmes and Terrell Davis disagree. Unless the definition of power back is a circular one of big back then lots of the best short yardage and interior runners have been under 215 lbs.

Exactly. We saw what 10 lbs of muscle did to Slaton. It totally changed his game. If it is not broke, don't fix it.

[mariowillshine15]

I like Spiller or Jahvid Best. Both are really fast guys.

Spiller is more of an all around threat running, catching, returning while Best has better vision as a runner.

[TexansSeminole]

I like this mock draft alot all around.

I would take a RB in the first round if I felt the guy was worth the pick. We need to improve our group of running backs if we want to make a difference in the playoffs. I'm not a big Spiller fan because I question his leg strength to run up the middle, but I could get behind a RB at 20. You never know who impresses at the Combine. I could see both Dwyer and Matthews shoot up the boards if they test well, because the production on the field is already there.

Spiller just reminds me of Reggie Bush. Don't get me wrong, he would be valuable to any team if he turns out like Reggie Bush did, but I just don't think that is what the Texans need. Slaton can do all of the same things Spiller can do for cheaper.

[steelbtexan]

BL

What do you think of Amari Spievey CB from Iowa. Hee shut down Thomas in his bowl game. He is a great tackler. Norm Parker was his DB coach and he says he's the best DB that he's ever coached.

I hope he falls to the 2nd rd for the Texans. Like another DB that Parker coached at Iowa and fell to the 2nd rd where the Colts took him. (Sanders)

[beerlover]

In the ACC Championship, Dryer rushed 24 times, 110 yards & 2 TD's. Spiller rushed 20 times, 234 yards & 4 TD's. He is not at all like Reggie Bush, he is more like Marshall Falk. He also doesn't have the supporting cast or help splitting carries so doesn't come out of games in key situations. CJ is an everydown franchise RB. Competition with Slaton should enhance both & from what we've seen the Texans could use the help.

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by steelbtexan

BL

What do you think of Amari Spievey CB from Iowa. Hee shut down Thomas in his bowl game. He is a great tackler. Norm Parker was his DB coach and he says he's the best DB that he's ever coached.

I hope he falls to the 2nd rd for the Texans. Like another DB that Parker coached at Iowa and fell to the 2nd rd where the Colts took him. (Sanders)

I don't think you can go wrong with Iowa guys, their tough & well coached. I really like AJ Edds, he is one of the best cover LB's I've ever seen. Amari is coming out early, not super productive but could be another sleeper like Glover in the 4th. have to see how he does @ the combine in competition against rest of the group.

[infantrycak]

Originally Posted by steelbtexan

BL as you know I'm a fix the trenches kind of guy. Smithiak never follow this philosopy and the Texans continually have RZ woes.

Huh? 1st round draft picks under Kubiak/Smithiak - DE, DT, OT, LB. One non-trench guy.

[TexansSeminole]

Originally Posted by beerlover

In the ACC Championship, Dryer rushed 24 times, 110 yards & 2 TD's. Spiller rushed 20 times, 234 yards & 4 TD's. He is not at all like Reggie Bush, he is more like Marshall Falk. He also doesn't have the supporting cast or help splitting carries so doesn't come out of games in key situations. CJ is an everydown franchise RB. Competition with Slaton should enhance both & from what we've seen the Texans could use the help.

Hope your right, but I have watched enough of Spiller during his career to think otherwise.