Kris Brown: Cold, Hard Numbers

[eriadoc]

Back in the '06 season, I dreaded seeing Kris Brown line up for a FG between 30-30 yards. That feeling of dread was based entirely upon my gut feeling from observation, and I hadn't bothered to look up the numbers. In May '07, I looked up some numbers and made them available here:

OK, I followed up on this, once I had a little time. From 30-39 yards, over the past three seasons, Kris Brown is the worst kicker in the AFC. I didn't do NFC, sorry. And he's the worst by a pretty big margin. It's not even close.

BAL - Stover - 26/28 = .929
BUF - Lindell - 26/29 = .897
CIN - Graham - 28/32 = .875
CLE - Dawson - 24/29 = .828
DEN - Elam - 22/23 = .957
HOU - Brown - 18/27 = .667
IND - Vinatieri - 28/30 = .933
JAX - Scobee - 22/26 = .846
KCC - Tynes - 23/27 = .852
MIA - Feely - 30/34 = .882
NEP - Gostkowski - 7/10 = .700 (only one year, see Vinatieri)
NYJ - Nugent - 17/19 = .895 (only two years)
OAK - Janikowski - 21/25 = .840
PIT - Reed - 29/33 = .879
SDC - Kaeding - 22/23 = .957
TEN - Bironas - 13/14 = .929 (only two years)

Really, that is inexcusably bad. I have a hard time believing the Texans can't find a street FA that can't kick better than that.

FGs from 40-49 and 50+ yds., combined

Stover - 29/35 = .829
Lindell - 21/28 = .750
Graham - 25/34 = .735
Dawson - 19/28 = .679
Elam - 29/42 = .690
Brown - 23/35 = .657
Vinatieri - 24/32 = .750

Starting the next season, Kris Brown turned it around, and I laid off. The guy was doing a great job, and I thought that was the end of it. Now, however, I decided to look at a few numbers again to see what they tell us, and compare Brown to some of his colleagues, chosen completely at random, based on which kickers I could think of at that point.

Kris Brown (career 77.8%)
'07: 25/29 (very, very good)
'08: 29/33 (again, very, very good)
'09: 11/17 (terrible)

In Kris Brown's last season with the Steelers, he hit 68.2% of his kicks, after hitting 86% and 83% in his first two seasons. In '07 and '08, he hit 86.2% and 87.9%, respectively. So far this season, he's hitting 64.7%. By way of comparison, for the three seasons 2004, 2005, and 2006, when Brown was among the worst kickers in the AFC, his overall percentage was 74.7%. So far this season, he's hitting 64.7%. His lowest single season percentage was 70.8% (twice).

Most kickers don't kick a career % of 77.8% and keep their jobs for as long as he has. So I looked up a few kickers (again, random) and here are some numbers to consider:

Akers: 20/23 .... worst season 72.7%/career 81.4%
Bironas: 16/20 ... worst 78.6%/career 83.9%
Dawson: 6/6 ... worst 66.7%/career 83.2%
Elam: 10/16 ... worst 72.2%/career 80.8% (this year is bad, though)
Gostkowski: 20/24 ... worst 76.9%/career 85.1%
Gould: 16/19 ... worst 77.8%/career 85.7%
Graham: 12/17 ... worst 72.2%/career 84.5%
Longwell: 15/16 ... worst 64.5%/career 82.7%
Reed: 14/17 ... worst 71.9%/career 82.6%
Vinatieri: 6/8 ... worst 73.5%/career 82.0%

Obviously, the numbers don't tell the whole story, and certainly not in the limited context within which I've presented them. This is also far from comprehensive. There are certain factors that contribute to these numbers, like no FG over 50 yards ever being made in Heinz Field, for instance.

Most of the kickers I looked at had a bad year or two, but had many years in the mid to upper 80% range. Kris Brown's '07 and '08 seasons were good enough to place him in the top ten of kickers, most likely (sorry, not running those numbers LOL). However, this is his 11th season, and it so far is his sixth season where he has not achieved even his poor career average. In other words, for over half of his career, he has been a pretty poor kicker. Steven Hauschka got canned in Baltimore for having a better success percentage than Kris Brown.

This is a thread to get people involved, and I encourage others to go check out whatever numbers you want to bring to the discussion. I am by no means suggesting that I am an authority on the topic. But I do believe that Kris Brown is a mediocre-to-poor kicker, and his career numbers bear that out. The last couple of seasons have been great, no doubt. But he certainly wasn't great as a Texan prior to that, and is not currently.

[Second Honeymoon]

Hauschka missed important kicks just like Brown and Harbaugh wasn't going to have some new guy losing games for the rest of the team. They had to do it and Cundiff was the best they could find. We will see how he does. He did miss a kick Sunday in a close loss.

Brown has some credibility on the team and tenure. It just makes the whole thing more complicated. Best case scenario is the Texans play well and win some close games with Brown having a GW kick or two. Worst case is it happens again and he gets cut.

I don't want him to be cut but we may need to start looking around and perhaps even bringing in competition to light a fire. It's at that point. 2 game losing kicks and spotty play the whole season merits a long look...just don't do anything drastic this late in the season.

A Kris or Chris Brown has cost us 25% of our season, right off the top. 4 losses. Jville and Arizona courtesy of Chris and Indy and Tennessee courtesy of Kris. Next thing you know, one of them is practically a featured back against Tennessee. Rewarding failure? nothing new to the Texans.

[TheRealJoker]

Our kicker has the yips right now...

It would be nice to be able to say, "We can just start closing games out instead of having it come down to one player." But unfortunately we aren't equipped to do that.

We don't have a running game that can drain the clock and now that we lost our pro bowl TE we are having a harder time extending drives in the passing game to get the game clinching td. Without OD our average at best redzone offense becomes even worse. AJ got us inside the 10 in the 3rd quarter. If we got a td we would've had enough points to win. But our redzone offense let us down yet again. There was no pro bowl TE making a one handed diving td catch last night like the Bengals game

Personnel wise we pretty much need a kicker that'll come through late in the game because we don't have the tools to close the show. We lost two starting OL and Slaton regressed so our running game is shot. Our pro bowl TE is gone as well as our redzone offense. We need FGs because our offense can still move the ball between the 20s with the game on the line but our kicker doesn't seem up to the task right now.

It sucks but that's the truth. We're gonna need a miracle to make the playoffs and those things do not come around too often for Houston sports teams.

[eriadoc]

Originally Posted by Second Honeymoon

Brown has some credibility on the team and tenure. It just makes the whole thing more complicated.

That's the thing - I'm saying he shouldn't have credibility with anyone who's aware of his history, and can't figure out how he has tenurre with those numbers. He has a 77.8% career percentage. Kickers in the 70s go unemployed for the most part. But this guy managed to hang onto his job for years while performing poorly.

[Jackie Chiles]

Don't worry, its not like we just signed this guy to a 4 year extension. Whew, that could have been messy.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by TheRealJoker

Our kicker has the yips right now...

Our Kicker has pictures of a particularly successful billionaire & a few goats.

[Ranger Tom]

Y'know, Texas Tech had this guy named Alex Trlica. Best kicker in their history--he could hit 60 yards if the blockers held up. I wonder what happened to him...and if he's been keeping his skills sharp?

[Yankee_In_TX]

I believe '06 is the year he had an undisclosed injury all year.

[eriadoc]

Originally Posted by Yankee_In_TX

I believe '06 is the year he had an undisclosed injury all year.

Maybe. But the year before, he hit a whopping 0.5% more of his kicks (76.5%). In '04, he hit 70.8% of his kicks. All three of those years were below his career average. In fact, counting this year, four of the last six seasons have been below his career average, which is not exactly a high benchmark anyway.

Kris Brown is not good. He can be good at times, but he has a sizable body of work over his career, and it's not good. It's really pretty obvious.

[eriadoc]

I like Kris Brown. It's hard not to - he's a good guy. But when we analyze everything that's subpar about the team, you really can't overlook kicker. We are among the worst teams in the league at converting FGs.

[Txn_in_Oki]

What about that Howfield field guy? Is he available?

Yes. I did go there.

[Texan_Bill]

Originally Posted by Txn_in_NC

What about that Howfield field guy? Is he available?

Yes. I did go there.

Howfield is doing commercials for Clear Eyes, but Al Del Greco is rumored to be available.

[hobie]

[quote=Second Honeymoon;1307963]

A Kris or Chris Brown has cost us 25% of our season, right off the top. 4 losses. Jville and Arizona courtesy of Chris and Indy and Tennessee courtesy of Kris. QUOTE]

I disagree.... a missed kick or fumble or whatever you want to call it, it is a 60 minute game. A dropped pass when wide open, missed tackle on a 3rd down that prolongs a drive, a penalty taking a 3rd and short into a 3rd and long, bad clock mgmt. or other play calling.
I understand your point, but the game has way too many things going on to say a missed kick was the reason for a loss. It is a part of the reason, but those 2 guys are not the reason you say 25% of the games were lost.
1 play does not win or lose a game..!!!

[HOU-TEX]

Thanks for taking the time to do the research, eriadoc. Some interesting information you provided there. +

*Gotta spread the rep.....Can somebody hook him up for me?

[Texan_Bill]

[quote=hobie;1308251]

Originally Posted by Second Honeymoon

A Kris or Chris Brown has cost us 25% of our season, right off the top. 4 losses. Jville and Arizona courtesy of Chris and Indy and Tennessee courtesy of Kris. QUOTE]

I disagree.... a missed kick or fumble or whatever you want to call it, it is a 60 minute game. A dropped pass when wide open, missed tackle on a 3rd down that prolongs a drive, a penalty taking a 3rd and short into a 3rd and long, bad clock mgmt. or other play calling.
I understand your point, but the game has way too many things going on to say a missed kick was the reason for a loss. It is a part of the reason, but those 2 guys are not the reason you say 25% of the games were lost.
1 play does not win or lose a game..!!!

This^^^^^^^.

Let's face it people, while this defense has improved (drastically I might add) from the first three games, it's still not very good.

The offense, while at times potent in the passing game can't run the football. It's so bad that the Titans defense didn't even respect the play action.

Last, I wonder how many people have attempted a 49 yard field goal. I wonder how many people have even attempted a 29 yarder.

A 49 yarder is NO chip shot.

[JB]

Originally Posted by HOU-TEX

*Gotta spread the rep.....Can somebody hook him up for me?

Done!

Great info Eriadoc...thanks!

[bckey]

Eriadoc. I copy and pasted your post over at chron.com to Solomon's article giving you credit for it over there. Maybe he will pick up on it.

[TexansFanatic]

At 5-5 and still praying for their first winning season, the Texans have NO time to wait for a kicker to get over his emotional trauma.

The cameras caught Brown on the sideline prior to that final kick on Monday night. He had a look of terror in his eyes. They were like saucers. I knew before he even got on the field he was going to miss.

I hope the Texans don't wait around for another disaster to strike, but I think they probably will.

[eriadoc]

Originally Posted by Texan_Bill

This^^^^^^^.

Let's face it people, while this defense has improved (drastically I might add) from the first three games, it's still not very good.

The offense, while at times potent in the passing game can't run the football. It's so bad that the Titans defense didn't even respect the play action.

Last, I wonder how many people have attempted a 49 yard field goal. I wonder how many people have even attempted a 29 yarder.

A 49 yarder is NO chip shot.

I don't disagree with your sentiment. It's hard to place the blame on a kicker, because it should never have come to that, and it wasn't even a winning FG, either. 49 yards is no chip shot, as you point out.

However, that's the job in a nutshell. In the NFL, games come down to the kicker for every team. The job description is basically to sit your butt on the sidelines and do nothing except kickoff, and then come in for the most pressure packed play of the game, and succeed. Kickers don't get nearly the respect they deserve on football teams.

Kris Brown's not getting the job done. It's just that simple. As I said above, I feel bad for the guy. I feel bad for all kickers, really, because that's a crappy job. But the bottom line is, if you want to win in the NFL, you need a guy that can convert those FGs. Kris Brown has a very large body of work that shows he is among the worst in the NFL at doing that job.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by eriadoc

I don't disagree with your sentiment. It's hard to place the blame on a kicker, because it should never have come to that, and it wasn't even a winning FG, either. 49 yards is no chip shot, as you point out.

Don't forget he missed 2 field goals in this game.

Originally Posted by eriadoc

However, that's the job in a nutshell.

yep