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Old 11-13-2009   #1
infantrycak
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Default Hyper-analysis

The perfect example came up over the last two weeks for a point I think is important. QB's make mistakes, WR's change routes, ... looking at only the result doesn't always give you a good picture.

So example:

Texans v. Bills: Schaub throws a pass behind AJ which hits his trailing shoulder, bounces into the air and becomes (another lucky) INT for Byrd.

Saints v. Carolina: Brees throws a pass behind Reggie Bush to a degree Bush ends up making a phenomenal one-handed catch at full arm extension behind him and it becomes a successful play.

My point -- I don't think either play reflects on the players, either QB or receiver. All QB's throw passes that aren't perfect (or the receiver doesn't run the right route and ends up off target). All receivers have great receptions and poor ones. Reggie saving Brees' butt on one play didn't make Brees a better QB. AJ failing to make a good play on one ball didn't make him a poor WR or Schaub a poor QB.

Sometimes fans get to close. Just a thought.
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Old 11-13-2009   #2
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

I agree - not all interceptions are on the QB.

And 9 time out or 10 - at least 8 out of 10 AJ catches those.

And sometime the DB just makes a fantastic play for the pick.
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Old 11-13-2009   #3
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

No but it is fair to say both were poor throws regardless of the result. That's like saying two guys both get equally drunk and drive home. One has a couple of near misses but makes it home safely, the other guy kills a family of 4. Was one guy better than the other? No, one got lucky and the other did not. But their decision making was equally poor.

What I am saying is you are trying to analyze the result and not the performance. In both cases the performance on those particular throws was poor, but in one case the QB got bailed out by a good play by the WR, and in the other one the QB was made to look worse because his receiver failed to make a play for him.
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Old 11-13-2009   #4
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

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Originally Posted by Porky View Post
What I am saying is you are trying to analyze the result and not the performance.
Man you are whiffing on catching the point of threads today. No, I am saying exactly the opposite. Fans tend to over consider the result and then over analyze the cause. The example here is Brees/Bush get a highlight reel play (as I have said before many highlight reel receptions are the result of bad throws) and I bet not a NO fan around was bitching about how inaccurate Brees is and won't ever think of that play again for him being off. You won't hear any NO fans ever saying "man you remember that pass Brees threw horribly behind Reggie." Reverse the result and Schaub/AJ (on a better thrown off ball) both take flak because the result was an INT and we will have fans complaining about that throw later in the season. Both made bad passes. All QB's do. One will be remembered and used to characterize the QB and one will not.
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Old 11-13-2009   #5
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Man you are whiffing on catching the point of threads today. No, I am saying exactly the opposite. Fans tend to over consider the result and then over analyze the cause. The example here is Brees/Bush get a highlight reel play (as I have said before many highlight reel receptions are the result of bad throws) and I bet not a NO fan around was bitching about how inaccurate Brees is and won't ever think of that play again for him being off. You won't hear any NO fans ever saying "man you remember that pass Brees threw horribly behind Reggie." Reverse the result and Schaub/AJ (on a better thrown off ball) both take flak because the result was an INT and we will have fans complaining about that throw later in the season. Both made bad passes. All QB's do. One will be remembered and used to characterize the QB and one will not.

I think this is a great point you are making. And something we all need to catch ourselves doing.

What has been interesting in doing back and forth discussions with different fanbases for blog posts is that every fanbase has stuff they worry about with their team. And every fanbase has issues that they hyper-analyze because they are trying to figure stuff out...trying to find The Thing that fixes their team.

What is funny about the statisticians, is that they are trying to find the same thing but using math. And what they discover is that for a lot of things that happen on the field over the course of limited data points (a 16 game season), is that a lot of stuff is pretty random based on a wrong step or a strangely bounced ball. Injuries. Turnovers. Those are things that tend to regress to the mean.
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Old 11-13-2009   #6
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
I think this is a great point you are making. And something we all need to catch ourselves doing.

What has been interesting in doing back and forth discussions with different fanbases for blog posts is that every fanbase has stuff they worry about with their team. And every fanbase has issues that they hyper-analyze because they are trying to figure stuff out...trying to find The Thing that fixes their team.

What is funny about the statisticians, is that they are trying to find the same thing but using math. And what they discover is that for a lot of things that happen on the field over the course of limited data points (a 16 game season), is that a lot of stuff is pretty random based on a wrong step or a strangely bounced ball. Injuries. Turnovers. Those are things that tend to regress to the mean.
Agreed. Fans are clearly a lagging indicator of the state of the football team/organization. The Texans finally have a very healthy and talented team and organization but the fans are slow to believe it because of the history of their personal experiences. It severely clouds their perspective. There is a definite sense that the universe has predetermined the doom of this organization. The reality is that the talent and coaching has reached a new level but every misstep is seen as "more of the same".

In another thread, someone brought up how the Texans loose games they should win. And, that good teams like Pittsburgh and NE don't do that. That's hardly the case! Good teams are in every game and so they actually loose a lot of heartbreakers... Look at Pitt, NE, and Minnesota, for instance:

Pitt: *blew an 11 point lead to Cincy late in the 4th
*blew a lead late vs. Chicago, including late FG kicks to ice the game

NE *Dominated the Jets in 1st half but settled for FGs.. gave up the lead late
*blew 10 pt second half lead vs. Denver and lost in OT

MIN *Red zone turnovers... including late 4th quarter, going in for the winversus Pitts. but had bal int. and returned for PITT TD.

Since the NYJ game, this team has been in every game.. It's a talented but young team. So, there's going to be 7 or 8 nailbiters and they will loose about half of them... it's not because they are losers, it's statistical probability, human nature, etc....

This phenomenon happens the other way as well. It is what makes (well, one thing) Dallas Cowboy fans so obnoxious. They always think there team is good/great and going to win. Their personal experience as a Cowboy fan has spoiled them into that assumption. Not unlike Redskin fans that are just now catching up to what a nightmare their team is... Even though some of us from the outside have known it since Marty was fired in order to hire Spurrier.

Texan fans are going to be genuinely shocked when this team roles to a 10 or 11 win season in the second half. Even though I expect it on an intellectual level, it's still going to be emotionally overwhelming and surprising because of all the losing and disappointment I've suffered.
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Old 11-13-2009   #7
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

I think a lot of the analysis comes due to long time between games in this sport. Baseball, Hockey, Basketball in a shorter time period you are back in action and moving on.
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Old 11-13-2009   #8
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

I think Schaub's problem is that he doesnt lead the receivers...I think there was a thread a couple of weeks discussing it. If you notice that our receivers usually have to wait on the ball...that was the case then. However, schaub has corrected that problem and he is leading the receivers and his picks as of late have been due to overthrows.

I am also alarmed by the "almost picks" he has thrown recently..the ones into triple or double coverage. I hope that is not a trend.
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Old 11-13-2009   #9
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
My point -- I don't think either play reflects on the players, either QB or receiver. All QB's throw passes that aren't perfect (or the receiver doesn't run the right route and ends up off target). All receivers have great receptions and poor ones. Reggie saving Brees' butt on one play didn't make Brees a better QB. AJ failing to make a good play on one ball didn't make him a poor WR or Schaub a poor QB.

Sometimes fans get to close. Just a thought.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grams View Post
I agree - not all interceptions are on the QB.

And 9 time out or 10 - at least 8 out of 10 AJ catches those.

And sometime the DB just makes a fantastic play for the pick.
If the QB makes the right throw..... 8 out of 10 times, or better...

& if the WR makes that catch... 8 out of 10 times... we have nothing to worry about.

If you have fans calling Schaub a bum, because he is 8 of 10, & not 10-10 then your fans are way too close.

If you've got people saying Schaub still has work to do because he is 8 of 10, and not perfect, then he's just got high expectations for Schaub & this team...... it's a compliment really.

If you've got guys saying Schaub is an elite QB because he's 8 of 10, they don't understand the QB position has more intangible qualities than you can shake a stick at.
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Old 11-13-2009   #10
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

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Originally Posted by spurstexanstros View Post
I think Schaub's problem is that he doesnt lead the receivers...I think there was a thread a couple of weeks discussing it. If you notice that our receivers usually have to wait on the ball...that was the case then. However, schaub has corrected that problem and he is leading the receivers and his picks as of late have been due to overthrows.

I am also alarmed by the "almost picks" he has thrown recently..the ones into triple or double coverage. I hope that is not a trend.
I was so pleasantly surprised to see Schaub get that ball over JJ's head. Just enough for Jacoby to run underneath the ball, and pull it in.

I'm not a big Schaub fan... I've got nothing against him, he just isn't "my type" of QB. But it's wrong to say he doesn't lead his receivers. He led Chris Brown right into a monster tackle against Buffalo. That same kind of thing would have happened to AJ had he put that ball in front of him.

I think Schaub is getting better. My biggest "problem" with Matt, is that he isn't as "ready" as we were sold that he was.
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Old 11-13-2009   #11
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
If you've got guys saying Schaub is an elite QB because he's 8 of 10, they don't understand the QB position has more intangible qualities than you can shake a stick at.
If you have guys saying a QB needs to be better than 8 and 10 to be elite when 8 and 10 is what elite players do, then you need some perspective. Kind of convenient for this point that the example was Drew Brees, huh?
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Old 11-13-2009   #12
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

To me, the key to QB's play is how he "command" the plays that was called.

For example, if it's a screen, then the QB (as well as the linemen) need to draw the O-linemen in before throwing the pass.

When you throw to a point where there's safety help over the top, you got to be extremely careful and throw where it's as safe as possible.

Etc.

Watching Manning and Schaub shows how far apart their decision making skills are.
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Old 11-13-2009   #13
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
To me, the key to QB's play is how he "command" the plays that was called.

For example, if it's a screen, then the QB (as well as the linemen) need to draw the O-linemen in before throwing the pass.

When you throw to a point where there's safety help over the top, you got to be extremely careful and throw where it's as safe as possible.

Etc.

Watching Manning and Schaub shows how far apart their decision making skills are.
Hardly surprising that you can come up with something a QB people argue is the best of our generation or possibly the best of all time does better than another QB. I mean, c'mon - Manning is not the standard of present day elite, he is approaching the standard of all-time ultra-elite (God I hated typing that). Just an observation, not a ranking on Schaub as being in a comparison with Manning.
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Old 11-13-2009   #14
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

Some people seem to be incredibly intent on finding some sort of minutia to ***** and whine about so that they can promote their own various agendas of say anti-Matt or anti-Kubes or what ever they feel they have some how been wronged by the team or that the team didn't follow exactly what they see as the perfect way to operate. Some seem to operate like the Russian judges used to.
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Old 11-13-2009   #15
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
To me, the key to QB's play is how he "command" the plays that was called.

For example, if it's a screen, then the QB (as well as the linemen) need to draw the O-linemen in before throwing the pass.

When you throw to a point where there's safety help over the top, you got to be extremely careful and throw where it's as safe as possible.

Etc.

Watching Manning and Schaub shows how far apart their decision making skills are.
Those "skills" are finely tuned over time. Get back to me when Schaub has been lining up under center - as the starter - for over a decade as Manning has. Oh and make sure he spends all that time collaborating with basically the same offensive coordinator too or it's not truly "apples to apples".
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Old 11-14-2009   #16
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

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Those "skills" are finely tuned over time. Get back to me when Schaub has been lining up under center - as the starter - for over a decade as Manning has. Oh and make sure he spends all that time collaborating with basically the same offensive coordinator too or it's not truly "apples to apples".
I agree. Like when Madden said Montana didn't learn to make all his reads until some time his fifth year.

I have to repeat that it was TexanMike and me on the old TT board who wanted to see the Texans trade for Schaub before anybody ever heard of him.
He's my horse; I don't have a need or a want to shoot him down, now do I?

This is just like you put a gage underneath the overpass so you can measure the level of water progressing during a rain or a storm.

Let's say we put Manning at 110%.
Then we can count, say like in a thousand plays he was in; Manning would make 5 critical "mistakes", 10 major mistakes, 15 medium mistakes, and 20 minor mistakes.

Then we can see how each year Schaub progresses; or every 4 games, or 6 games, whatever please us!
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Old 11-14-2009   #17
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

I need a minutia.
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Old 11-14-2009   #18
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

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I need a minutia.
no problem, the rest of you

...talk amongst yourselves


or otherwise entertain yourselves

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Old 11-14-2009   #19
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
I have to repeat that it was TexanMike and me on the old TT board who wanted to see the Texans trade for Schaub before anybody ever heard of him.
Don't pat yourself too hard. There were others as well.
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Old 11-15-2009   #20
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Default Re: Hyper-analysis

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Originally Posted by spurstexanstros View Post

I am also alarmed by the "almost picks" he has thrown recently..the ones into triple or double coverage. I hope that is not a trend.
I saw Carson Palmer do that a lot vs. the Steelers.

I'm just saying.
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