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Old 10-29-2009   #1
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Default Schaub, The Bills, and the 4-3

The ESPN Stats & Information gang documents every NFL snap. In the process, they frequently come up with interesting statistical trends.

Even though the Buffalo Bills have gained a reputation for their ability to come up with interceptions, numbers indicate they're at their best while in their base 4-3 defense compared to packages that feature extra defensive backs.

ESPN Stats & Information's research shows opponents are averaging 6.4 yards per pass attempt and have thrown nine interceptions, but just one touchdown against the Bills' base. Quarterbacks have a 39.9 passer rating.

Against small sub packages, Bills opponents have thrown for four touchdowns and three interceptions.

The problem the Bills have Sunday is that Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub has shredded 4-3 defenses this year.

Schaub has completed 61.6 percent of his passes against 4-3 defenses. He's averaging 10.5 yards per attempt with five touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 120.2 passer rating.


Posted by ESPN.com's Tim Graham
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Old 10-29-2009   #2
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Default Re: Schaub, The Bills, and the 4-3

You know my problem with the Bills being ranked so high, statistically anyway, as far as pass defense goes, is that they are just so bad in run defense. NFL teams do not try to make things harder on themselvers, they much like water go downhill by taking the path of least resistance.

For instance the Saints passed for 156 on this bills defense but ran for 225, I just don't buy how good everybody thinks the Bills pass D is. Their numbers are inflated by teams like Clevland, and Miami, Tampa Bay and Carolina. All terrible passing teams.

Guess we'll see Sunday.
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Old 10-29-2009   #3
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Default Re: Schaub, The Bills, and the 4-3

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Originally Posted by jppaul View Post
You know my problem with the Bills being ranked so high, statistically anyway, as far as pass defense goes, is that they are just so bad in run defense. NFL teams do not try to make things harder on themselvers, they much like water go downhill by taking the path of least resistance.

For instance the Saints passed for 156 on this bills defense but ran for 225, I just don't buy how good everybody thinks the Bills pass D is. Their numbers are inflated by teams like Clevland, and Miami, Tampa Bay and Carolina. All terrible passing teams.

Guess we'll see Sunday.
I think what they get their warm and fuzzies off is their turnover ratio. I don't think MS is going to be lame ducking the ball all over the field, however.
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Old 10-29-2009   #4
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Default Re: Schaub, The Bills, and the 4-3

I would love to see Schaub increase his stats but I would love even more if we got our running game going and Slaton breaks out finally over the century mark.
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Old 10-29-2009   #5
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Default Re: Schaub, The Bills, and the 4-3

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Originally Posted by TexMexVato View Post
I would love to see Schaub increase his stats but I would love even more if we got our running game going and Slaton breaks out finally over the century mark.
Exactly. If their run defence is really that poor, we need to exploit that weakness and I'm pretty sure our new defensive coordinator is not dumb enough to miss that.
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Old 10-29-2009   #6
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Default Re: Schaub, The Bills, and the 4-3

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Originally Posted by TexMexVato View Post
I would love to see Schaub increase his stats but I would love even more if we got our running game going and Slaton breaks out finally over the century mark.
For those that care, Super Steve is the Start of the Week player FF wise, per NFL.com

Start of the Week

Team Player Analysis

Houston Texans
Steve Slaton, RB Slaton had a slow start to the season, but the former West Virginia star has turned it on in recent weeks. He's been effective as both a runner and receiver out of the backfield, and he appears to have gained back his goal-line duties from veteran Chris Brown. With a matchup against the Bills and their 32nd-ranked run defense next on the schedule, Slaton should continue to find statistical success

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Old 10-29-2009   #7
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Default Re: Schaub, The Bills, and the 4-3

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Originally Posted by TexMexVato View Post
I would love to see Schaub increase his stats but I would love even more if we got our running game going and Slaton breaks out finally over the century mark.
^^This^^

The ability to run the ball and continue to stop the run.
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Old 10-29-2009   #8
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Default Re: Schaub, The Bills, and the 4-3

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Originally Posted by jppaul View Post
You know my problem with the Bills being ranked so high, statistically anyway, as far as pass defense goes, is that they are just so bad in run defense. NFL teams do not try to make things harder on themselvers, they much like water go downhill by taking the path of least resistance.

For instance the Saints passed for 156 on this bills defense but ran for 225, I just don't buy how good everybody thinks the Bills pass D is. Their numbers are inflated by teams like Clevland, and Miami, Tampa Bay and Carolina. All terrible passing teams.

Guess we'll see Sunday.
And/or .... the other team puts up a lead and can run the clock out the rest of the way because the Bills offense couldn't score ... well, I'll keep it G-rated. They can't score.

The Bills have a good defense, but their offense does them no favors at all. I still think we'll do fine against them.
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Old 10-31-2009   #9
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Default Re: Schaub, The Bills, and the 4-3

The weather could have a significant effect on QB play. But it's interesting to note that Fitzpatrick has not yet had a chance to experience the unfriendly conditions of the Buffalo winter and Buffalo stadium either.
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Old 10-31-2009   #10
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Default Re: Schaub, The Bills, and the 4-3

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Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
The weather could have a significant effect on QB play. But it's interesting to note that Fitzpatrick has not yet had a chance to experience the unfriendly conditions of the Buffalo winter and Buffalo stadium either.
The prediction right now is high of 48 degrees with no rain and 9 mph winds. That shouldn't effect either QB.
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Old 10-31-2009   #11
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Default Re: Schaub, The Bills, and the 4-3

interesting reasoning for starting Slaton in FF... I know he's done better, mostly in the passing game, but I don't see him completely taking the goal-line duties away from Brown? I know Kub said Brown and Sla-ride are gunna share the ball tomorrow, dunno if that's 50/50, 70/30 or whatever...

but when I first read "ESPN stats and information gang" I immediately thought I would have been reading something like this:

"The Texans are the first team in NFL history from a city southeast of Dallas and West of New Orleans to be 4-3 and playing their 8th game north of New York City, NY while bringing in an offense that is more pass-oriented than run-oriented on a day where there is no snow expected in either city"

"Wow, Bob! that's an amazing stat there"...

One of these days I want one of these guys to say "Okay, that is just stupid, no point to that"...
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Old 10-31-2009   #12
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Default Re: Schaub, The Bills, and the 4-3

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The prediction right now is high of 48 degrees with no rain and 9 mph winds. That shouldn't effect either QB.
Agreed. Looks like the rain forecast with heavy winds has been amended. It did match today's forecast of ~50 degrees, 20-30 mph winds and 100% chance of precipitation. That could have been brutal. But, now, as you point out, it looks like it will be a "clean" game.
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