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Old 10-26-2009   #1
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Default The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

The Buffalo Bills are currently 10th in the league in yards allowed against the pass (190.4 ypg) but what stands out the most about them is that they are tied for the league lead with 13 INTs and the average QB rating for opponents is 58.0 (2nd best in the NFL). Their pass rush is pretty solid as well (tied for 6th with 16 sacks).

This game will show us how far Schaub has come in his decision making against a very good pass defense. The Bills allowed Delhomme to throw for over 300 yards against them but he also threw 3 INTs. The week before they forced Sanchez to throw 5 picks. I'd like to see Schaub take what they give him like he did yesterday when he was under pressure against the 49ers. He got the ball to OD early and often because they were setting up to stop AJ and he didn't hurt the team with turnovers. If AJ is out or is clearly not healthy enough to be the beast we've become accustomed to its even more important that Schaub does not force things.

We cant count on our running game to get going this week even though all indications are the Bills have a week run defense, allowing a league worst 172.4 ypg on the ground, but it sure would be nice if this were the week our running game all of a sudden turned the corner because we cant count on the passing game to carry the offense with a less than 100% AJ against this team.

It looks like the Texans defense will get to have their rubbermatch against the infamous Ryan Fitzpatrick. With the way our run defense is performing I think we can shut down two good RBs. Now we've gotta see if we can stop that speedster Lee Evans and make sure TO doesn't have a resurgence against our team.

The thing that should concern us most though is their ballhawking secondary against our high powered passing game that can be prone to turnovers from time to time.
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Old 10-26-2009   #2
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

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Old 10-26-2009   #3
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

the reason buffalo is so 'good' against the pass is that they are pretty bad against the run plus the wind means most teams dont throw that much up there because it turns into a bit of a lottery as seen by their high int total

buffalo kinda stinks imo. it will be a season altering blow if we cant beat them
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Old 10-26-2009   #4
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

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Originally Posted by Maddict5 View Post
the reason buffalo is so 'good' against the pass is that they are pretty bad against the run plus the wind means most teams dont throw that much up there because it turns into a bit of a lottery as seen by their high int total

buffalo kinda stinks imo. it will be a season altering blow if we cant beat them
That kinda talk is a recipe for a trap game. We haven't earned the right to say any team other than the Oakland Raiders stink. Lucky for us we had a close call against SF giving up an early lead and Buffalo has won 2 in a row just like us which means that there is less of a chance for a trap game.

We need to be 5-3 heading into Indy. Tough division game on the road with a 3 game winning streak would give us some great momentum heading into that game!!!
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Old 10-26-2009   #5
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

Schaub's and Slaton's turnover problems might be the keys to winning this game. If they can keep from making those costly mistakes, I think we stand a good chance of pulling out a win in Buffalo.
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Old 10-26-2009   #6
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

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the reason buffalo is so 'good' against the pass is that they are pretty bad against the run plus the wind means most teams dont throw that much up there because it turns into a bit of a lottery as seen by their high int total

buffalo kinda stinks imo. it will be a season altering blow if we cant beat them
Buffalo is allowing a 58 passer rating against them. That has nothing to do with the run. If the only reason people didn't pass against them was because running was so effective, they'd be giving up a normal passer rating.
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Old 10-26-2009   #7
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

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Schaub's and Slaton's turnover problems might be the keys to winning this game. If they can keep from making those costly mistakes, I think we stand a good chance of pulling out a win in Buffalo.
Buffalos offense doesn't scare me at all. They score points off of other teams mistakes. If we can limit our turnovers, there is zero reason this shouldn't be a blowout
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Old 10-26-2009   #8
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

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Buffalos offense doesn't scare me at all. They score points off of other teams mistakes. If we can limit our turnovers, there is zero reason this shouldn't be a blowout
My thoughts exactly. I think if we win the turnover battle, we win the game. Maybe that's a simplistic look, but I do not see the Bills as a team that can make a run from a large deficit.
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Old 10-26-2009   #9
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

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My thoughts exactly. I think if we win the turnover battle, we win the game. Maybe that's a simplistic look, but I do not see the Bills as a team that can make a run from a large deficit.
I would agree but most people said the same thing about the 49ers. Any team with Lee Evans scares the crud out of me. I will never forget his back to back 80 yard TD's.
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Old 10-26-2009   #10
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

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My thoughts exactly. I think if we win the turnover battle, we win the game. Maybe that's a simplistic look, but I do not see the Bills as a team that can make a run from a large deficit.
I think this games hinges on the weather. If it's raining and windy I think we might be screwed. I don't think we'll be able to keep opposing offenses off the field with our running game. Yes, the Bills have a horrible run defense, but still.
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Old 10-26-2009   #11
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

I think the wind will dictate turnovers, which will determin the game (shouldn't be a shocker). Right now I'm seeing predictions of 15-20mph WSW winds, partly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain dropping to 20% closer to game time with temps in the mid 40s to low 50s. Obviously it's way to early to determine, but you have to imagine that is pretty much a realistic idea of what the weather will be.

If the wind is going to stiff come game time, your going to see a heavy dose of running...I just hope that they throw in some screens to Slaton, hell, some to OD right over the middle would be nice too (have he gotten one of those yet?)

Just have to wait and see I guess.
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Old 10-26-2009   #12
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

...well that was a little off topic...but to respond to Joker, yes...we'll see if Schaub avoids going deep into the wind and letting the ball float away from the receiver.
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Old 10-26-2009   #13
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

It also helps the INT ratio when you face Delhomme (3) and catch Sanchez (5) when he is not playing well.

Schaub has played well on the road, but if the weather is bad he may struggle and the running game will have to improve 10 fold. Mainly if its really windy, because we know Schaub can play in the cold (see 08 Packers W).

Projected Weather for Sunday in Buffalo, NY (Weather.com)
Few Showers
High 51°F
Precip 30%
Wind: From WSW at 16 mph

Their offense kind of scares me only because of the history we have had with a few players, notably Fitzpatrick when he was with the Rams and Evans when he had like 3 80+ yard TD catches (I think it was Evans).

They have actually done OK this season:

@ NE L 25-24
vs TB W 33-20
vs NO L 27-7
@ MIA L 38-10
vs CLE L 3-6
@ NYJ W 16-13 OT
@ CAR W 20-9

I haven't really watched a full game of Bills football this season, but I know they have had some injury issues on the defense and their offense seems inept at times. We have to start this game the same way we started vs the 49ers because their fans will turn on them quicker than VY's career. There was a story I read where a fan raised enough money to buy billboard space to advertise such messages as "It's time to clean house Ralph!"

This is a tough spot for us to be in with a big game @INDY followed by a bye week. We need this win to carry some more momentum into the Colts game.
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Old 10-27-2009   #14
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

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Schaub's and Slaton's turnover problems might be the keys to winning this game. If they can keep from making those costly mistakes, I think we stand a good chance of pulling out a win in Buffalo.
Schaub's interceptions are a problem? Granted he has 5 this year in six games, but if you consider his 250 pass attempts, that is one interception every 50 pass attempts. Look at the rest of the QB's that lead the lead in rating:

Brees = 1 INT per 40 attempts
Manning = 1 INT per 53 attempts
Big Ben = 1 INT per 43 attempts

Do you consider these three to also have turnover problems, because Brees and Big Ben turn it over at a higher rate than Schaub.

Outside of the INT against Arizona, you can't point to any of the other 4 as having had a significant impact on the game.
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Old 10-27-2009   #15
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

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Schaub's interceptions are a problem?
Offensive turnovers are ALWAYS a problem. Football 101.

What other teams or players are doing is irrelevant to this organization unless we are playing them this week.

If you think the pick 6 against Arizona helped our cause, please elaborate.
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Old 10-27-2009   #16
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

Buffalo is really really awful. they've had some insane luck the past 2 weeks.
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Old 10-27-2009   #17
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

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Offensive turnovers are ALWAYS a problem. Football 101.

What other teams or players are doing is irrelevant to this organization unless we are playing them this week.

If you think the pick 6 against Arizona helped our cause, please elaborate.
Thanks for using extreme logic. Of course the best case scenario is that there would no interceptions, but the reality of the situation is that it is not going to happen.

My point was that his interception to attempt ratio is better than most of the other top rated QB's, which is a good thing considering how we have had to rely on the passing game so much in this first half of the season.

Compare that to Slaton's issues with not only fumbling, but his overall lack of rushing production that has led the Texans to rely heavily on the passing game. It is simply not the same context.

And as far as the Arizona INT goes, clearly you decided not to read to the end of my post. Only two of the other picks resulted in scores on the subsequent drive by the other teams. Both were FG's and neither had an impact on the final outcome of the games.
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Old 10-27-2009   #18
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

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Thanks for using extreme logic.
Extreme logic? BWAHAHAHAHAHA!! yeah, offensive turnovers are a problem for any team is pretty extreme logic... ...not

Look, last season Schaub threw 10 INTS and had 10 fumbles (losing 4) in 11 games (9 INT, 7 fumbles the year before that in 11 games). His history is what it is, and while he seems to be improving this season (with the exception of the Ariz pick 6), my statement still stands: "Schaub's and Slaton's turnover problems might be the keys to winning this game."

I'm not discounting how well Schaub has been playing through 7 games, and it is admirable that he can be compared to the better QBs in the league.

But, that still doesn't change the simple fact that the Bills have won the past two games by winning the turnover margin and they will try to do the same to us next Sunday. The two key players will be Schaub and Slaton in that regard (you know, the two players that will most likely get the most touches). If they can prevent turnovers, we have a good shot of winning this game.

Is that really extreme? I thought it was rather obvious.
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Old 10-27-2009   #19
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

As good as his numbers have been, Schaub has thrown his share passes which were lucky not to be intercepted. They've come in the form of throwing behind receivers, throwing over receivers, throwing short of receivers. But what I worry most concerns his thowing a good deal of medium range and, certainly, long range rainbow "floaters." Add that to the the Bill's turnover geared secondary in a wind affected environment..........it, frankly, scares me.
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Old 10-27-2009   #20
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Default Re: The Bills game should show us how Schaub's decision making has progressed

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Extreme logic? BWAHAHAHAHAHA!! yeah, offensive turnovers are a problem for any team is pretty extreme logic... ...not

Look, last season Schaub threw 10 INTS and had 10 fumbles (losing 4) in 11 games (9 INT, 7 fumbles the year before that in 11 games). His history is what it is, and while he seems to be improving this season (with the exception of the Ariz pick 6), my statement still stands: "Schaub's and Slaton's turnover problems might be the keys to winning this game."

I'm not discounting how well Schaub has been playing through 7 games, and it is admirable that he can be compared to the better QBs in the league.

But, that still doesn't change the simple fact that the Bills have won the past two games by winning the turnover margin and they will try to do the same to us next Sunday. The two key players will be Schaub and Slaton in that regard (you know, the two players that will most likely get the most touches). If they can prevent turnovers, we have a good shot of winning this game.

Is that really extreme? I thought it was rather obvious.
Exactly. The Bills have won two games in a row that they had no business winning because they were able to cause turnovers. While it isn't all on Schaub, turnovers are an Achille's Heel this team is still struggling with.

We've looked pretty good on the road, not just this year but for a while. At this point I'm more optimistic than I was against the Niners because I think the 49ers are a slightly better organization than Buffalo. Still, while we have a tendency to play a more complete game on the road (Tennessee and Cincy from this year, GB from last), we often lay utter stinkers (Oakland '08 anyone?). This can definitely be a trap game, especially with bad weather. I'm not so certain we have the strength between the tackles to do much offensively.
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