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Old 02-11-2005   #1
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Default Our Needs vs BPA

Predicting and debating pre-draft selections is a tough occupation. The argument between selecting the right person for a system, BPA or highest team need are all factors.

From one fan's perspective are greatest priorities are:

1. OL: Improvement by LT & LG and upgrades at C and RG.
2. DL: Youth to learn behind Walker and NT starter or reserve behind Payne
3. TE: All-around talent, that can play every down
4. LB: A young inside LB to develop
5. CB: A young CB to develop
6. WR: Speed WR
7. QB: Vet Back-up
8. KR: More speed

Given the above, I'm not sure there is a C or RG worthy of #13, but there probably is a 3-4 type DE that we could take. Miller (TE) may also be available. If I had to choose between one of the two, I might actually go w/Heath Miller. I'm not confident Jopuru will ever pan out and Carr/DD could benefit greatly from a TE that could catch, run and block.

Another factor is drafting to what the particular years' strength happens to be. This year, there is depth at CB, DL & RB. Taking BPA at #13 makes sense and then looking to those three areas in rounds #2 and #3 might also be beneficial.

Trading down in round one also makes sense if we can get another #2. This may also allow us to trade down to where the BPA is also a need.

Thoughts?
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Old 02-11-2005   #2
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i agree with everything you've just stated, it all boils down to who will be available when the Texans are on the clock with the 13th pick. this is what I'd like to see happen: take the DEFENSIVE BPA with the 13th pick if one of these studs are available-
  • #1 Derrick Johnson
  • #2 Marcus Spears
  • #3 Antrel Rolle
  • #4 Adam Jones
  • #5 Thomas Davis

then trade back up into the 1st round (similar to last year with Babin) and draft the HULK (David Baas) to plug up the middle, he is a big wide body that nobody and I mean nobody gets past this guy. if we add more depth later in the draft thats a bonus, but with those two picks the Texans address both critical areas of need with the BPA in the 2005 draft
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Old 02-11-2005   #3
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o-line is a need but not the top need for the texans. I'd say the biggest need is a pass rusher.
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Old 02-11-2005   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by F-minus67
o-line is a need but not the top need for the texans.
Well, the owner of the Texans disagrees with you on this one. McNair publicly stated that the number 1 priority for the Texans is to protect Carr.
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Old 02-11-2005   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wags
Well, the owner of the Texans disagrees with you on this one. McNair publicly stated that the number 1 priority for the Texans is to protect Carr.
That doesn't mean wholesale changes, and McNair never talked about replacing anyone. Our protection will improve with maturity, off season work the growth of our young players being in the same system for the second year.
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Old 02-11-2005   #6
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Everyone discusses our need to improve the pass rush. Here is an insight I gleamed fromt Scout.com ( http://browns.scout.com/2/351365.html ) :

...only eleven NFL teams held ball carriers to less than four yards per carry last season, and five of those teams (New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, San Diego, and Oakland) played a 3-4. There was one glaring characteristic all of these 3-4 teams shared that led to their success against the run.

They didn’t give up the big play on the ground.

If you look at the teams that allowed the fewest runs of 20 + yards last season, the five stingiest teams were the aforementioned quintet! San Diego allowed just two long runs all season, followed by Baltimore ... who allowed only three. Next were New England at four, Pittsburgh with five and Oakland at six. In addition, all five teams ranked in the top ten in rushing yards allowed per game.

The only 3-4 team not to be ranked amongst the leagues best run defense units was Houston, who allowed 4.4 yards per carry and ten runs of twenty or more yards...

This is why I prefer Castillo over all those other DT's, taking him with our second round pick.
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Old 02-11-2005   #7
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Castillo stopped the run for San Diego.
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Old 02-11-2005   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
Our protection will improve with maturity, off season work the growth of our young players being in the same system for the second year.
You forgot one word in here: hopefully

Carr improved despite the O-line playing worse this year. It would be nice if the guys we have "gel" and have a good year, but I really don't think we'll stand pat. I can't imagine competition being brought in, via draft or FA, and not cracking this lineup.
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Old 02-11-2005   #9
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As much as I would like to take a player like barron, who even at #13 is considered a stretch to some, I would only do so if DJ, Davis, and Spears were off the board. I have no problem going with Baas, and Brown in the 2nd round. Although Ware would be tempting if he were there. But I think Baas would be an excellent pick.

1. DJ
2. Baas
3. Canty
3. Everett
4. Cedric Houston
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Old 02-11-2005   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wags
You forgot one word in here: hopefully

Carr improved despite the O-line playing worse this year. It would be nice if the guys we have "gel" and have a good year, but I really don't think we'll stand pat. I can't imagine competition being brought in, via draft or FA, and not cracking this lineup.
Hopefully could be attached to your statement as well. Look around the league and see how many rookie start, due merit not injury, in the league.

Most of FA for the OL are just guys, no more talented than the 5 we have. The couple that aren't, don't come cheap.

The Texans will add a couple of bodies, but working together, adjustments to the pass protection is a more likely answer. after the musical chairs on the OL for the first three years, I am willing to try stabily for a change.
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Old 02-11-2005   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan
Look around the league and see how many rookie start, due merit not injury, in the league.
Jacob Bell, TEN 14 GS
Justin Smiley, SF 9 GS
Chris Snee, NYG 11 GS
Jake Grove, OAK 8 GS
Rex Hadnot, MIA 7 GS
Nick Hardwick, SD 14 GS
Alex Stepanovich, ARI 16 GS
Robert Gallery, OAK 15 GS
Shane Olivea, SD 16 GS
Travelle Wharton, CAR 11 GS

These are games started, not played in. Shawn Andrews would probably be on the list, but he was injured early in the season. I believe these guys are legit and didn't get PT because of injury. There are a few others who had some PT, but it wasn't as significant, or was due to injury. In any case I think rookies can come in and play right away, and play well.
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Old 02-11-2005   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan
, but working together, adjustments to the pass protection is a more likely answer.
I am not saying that "gel" time is not the answer in all cases, but why did our guys get worse in pass protection as the year went on. The more they worked together in games and practices, the worse they got. Any reason for that? What adjustments will they make in pass protection that they couldn't do during the season?
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Old 02-11-2005   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wags
Jacob Bell, TEN 14 GS
Justin Smiley, SF 9 GS
Chris Snee, NYG 11 GS
Jake Grove, OAK 8 GS
Rex Hadnot, MIA 7 GS
Nick Hardwick, SD 14 GS
Alex Stepanovich, ARI 16 GS
Robert Gallery, OAK 15 GS
Shane Olivea, SD 16 GS
Travelle Wharton, CAR 11 GS

.
With the exception of SD... none of those teams finshed over .500 nor had an OL any better than the Texans. The Texans will add some bodies, expecting any of them to better than the guys is more wishful thinking. Maybe the team gets lucky, but I put more hope in improvement not replacement.
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Old 02-11-2005   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wags
I am not saying that "gel" time is not the answer in all cases, but why did our guys get worse in pass protection as the year went on. The more they worked together in games and practices, the worse they got. Any reason for that? What adjustments will they make in pass protection that they couldn't do during the season?
Remember the one thing we really have tried in order to improve is to return the same five guys to the Oline for a 2nd year. There are tons of things teams do in the off season as far as changing schemes in order to improve. The details are what Capers, pendrey, etc are paid to figure out.
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Old 02-11-2005   #15
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One source lists Green Bay's needs as: #1, DE ; #2, SS : #3, QB ; #4, LB and #5, CB. By moving up to our #13 spot, they would have their pick of some quality players. We get their #24 selection and their #49 (from New Orleans) in exchange.

We take:
#24........David Baas, OG/C
#47........Luis Castillo, DE/NT
#49........Chris Spencer, C/OG
#73........Boomer Grigsby, ILB
#78........I'm still lookiing for a DB to slot in here.

For this next year, I'm willing to let Tim Cheatwood be our upgrade tweener at OLB. He's the equivalent of a third round pick.
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Old 02-11-2005   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan
With the exception of SD... none of those teams finshed over .500 nor had an OL any better than the Texans.
Oaklands OL is way better than ours.
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Old 02-11-2005   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wags
Oaklands OL is way better than ours.
Only in your perception. Oakland was dead last in rushing last season, and teams with top lines are never dead last in rushing. We were 12th.

In total offense they had 322.1 yards per game and we churned out two less yards a game at 320.5

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NF...r?sort_col_1=7
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Old 02-11-2005   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan
...Maybe the team gets lucky, but I put more hope in improvement not replacement.
At this point, I think the Texans are going to require both improvement & replacement. This has gotten well past crossing your fingers & hoping that something will just get better. Every possible avenue has to be explored and considered. Another season of "...if only the Texans could protect the QB" will put Capers & Co. on the hot seat or the unemployment line. The owner has laid down the gauntlet. McNair's not telling the braintrust how to do it, just to get it done.

Looking at wags list, most of the guys are interior linemen, all drafted after the 1st round. It's just easier (not easy) to get a guard ready to play than it is a tackle. Even if the Texans went into the draft looking for a tackle in the 1st round, the draft might not break right and they could miss out. There may be zero tackles worthy of pursuing in free agency. And if there are some, the competition will be intense as there are a lot of bad O-lines in the league.

This is not just another expansion offseason where the Texans can pick about any position & find an upgrade. This is a team entering its 4th year that has identified its strengths and weaknesses. The offensive line is a flat out weakness. McKinney is a 3 year experiment at center that's failed. Wiegert went from journeyman to reliable starter to journeyman in the span of 365 days. Pitts struggled at his "natural position" at various points in the season. $30 million RT Todd Wade looked very, very average after his early season high ankle sprain. And most of the time, Seth Wand looked exactly like what he is. A 2nd year project out of a Division II directional school. Of all of these guys, I want to cut Wand the most slack. A first year starter at the most difficult position on the line, playing with 4 vets who underachieved. But when I watch the guy play, I don't see a NFL caliber LT ever emerging. Seth just doesn't seem to have the instincts and his physical talent rarely comes through. It's an opinion, I've been wrong before, and I very, very much hope I'm wrong this time.

If you believe that Wand & Pitts are the answers and will improve with another offseason of instruction, I'll buy that. If you think that with another year in the Texans system, a healthy Todd Wade will play like a top shelf RT, I can buy that. What I'm not buying is improvement from 8 & 11 year vets like McKinney & Wiegert. And getting any competition for any of these spots from the Texans current backups isn't happening. Even if you're looking at improvement of the current players as the best hope, bringing in guys to push for the O-line jobs is still the answer. Competition brings out the best. With an improved line comes an improved QB, RB, & WRs. Playing with a lead maybe even improves the pass rush of the defense. A quality O-line can have a ripple effect across the entire team. Casserly & Capers know this, that's why they tried to solidify the line from the beginning. I see them being as proactive as possible in turning this problem around.
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Old 02-11-2005   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
Only in your perception. Oakland was dead last in rushing last season, and teams with top lines are never dead last in rushing. We were 12th.

In total offense they had 322.1 yards per game and we churned out two less yards a game at 320.5

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NF...r?sort_col_1=7
Since your citing stats, talk about how the Raiders OL gave up 19 fewer sacks on 111 more pass attempts.

In the second half of the season, the Texans ran because that's what defenses gave them (because they couldn't pass/pass protect effectively).
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Old 02-11-2005   #20
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We gave up a little more than one sack more per game. Personally, I don't think Carr does the best job in the world avoiding the sack and the Oakland Coach is known for having lines who can pass protect well, but I will agree that they are better pass blockers, but to say point blank that their line is worlds better than ours is flat wrong and the stats bear that out. Oakland only had 2 more yards per game than us.
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