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Old 08-21-2009   #1
alphajoker
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Default Advice on #2 pick in FF league

All homerism aside, would you take AJ as the 2nd pick? If not, who would you take?
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Old 08-21-2009   #2
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Default Re: Advice on #2 pick in FF league

What are the scoring settings? Is it PPR?

Regardless though, I would not take a WR #2 overall. I grabbed AJ at pick 11 in my money league and he somehow fell to 16 in my casual league. I've been seeing him go in mock drafts in the 7-13 range, which is about right IMO.
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Old 08-21-2009   #3
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Default Re: Advice on #2 pick in FF league

If it's not a PPR league, you'd be nuts to take a WR at #2 IMO.

MJD or Forte would be my pick if it's not PPR, and even if it's not. 2 is just too high.

Michael Turner - just look at the stats. Last year, whenever they played a bad defense, he was GREAT. When they played tough defenses - he was terrible. This year, the Falcons have a MUCH tougher schedule against tougher defenses. Turner is for sure a first round pick - but I wouldn't take him at #2 where he is going in most leagues.

Seriously look at his games last year and the defenses he played. He was almost always great against weak run Ds, and almost always terrible against good ones.

Forte is the featured back - plus he's got a real QB now who will make teams fear the passing game - PLUS he gets a lot of catches.

MJD I think will do really well and hold up fine physically as the feature back in Jacksonville.
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Old 08-21-2009   #4
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Default Re: Advice on #2 pick in FF league

Quote:
Originally Posted by DiehardChris View Post
If it's not a PPR league, you'd be nuts to take a WR at #2 IMO.

MJD or Forte would be my pick if it's not PPR, and even if it's not. 2 is just too high.

Michael Turner - just look at the stats. Last year, whenever they played a bad defense, he was GREAT. When they played tough defenses - he was terrible. This year, the Falcons have a MUCH tougher schedule against tougher defenses. Turner is for sure a first round pick - but I wouldn't take him at #2 where he is going in most leagues.

Seriously look at his games last year and the defenses he played. He was almost always great against weak run Ds, and almost always terrible against good ones.

Forte is the featured back - plus he's got a real QB now who will make teams fear the passing game - PLUS he gets a lot of catches.

MJD I think will do really well and hold up fine physically as the feature back in Jacksonville.
Well said. I love Turner but the stats bear out your thoughts and their schedule is brutal. So besides him you get Forte, MJD and Peterson..if anyone skips him.
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Old 08-21-2009   #5
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Default Re: Advice on #2 pick in FF league

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Originally Posted by DiehardChris View Post
If it's not a PPR league, you'd be nuts to take a WR at #2 IMO.

MJD or Forte would be my pick if it's not PPR, and even if it's not. 2 is just too high.

Michael Turner - just look at the stats. Last year, whenever they played a bad defense, he was GREAT. When they played tough defenses - he was terrible. This year, the Falcons have a MUCH tougher schedule against tougher defenses. Turner is for sure a first round pick - but I wouldn't take him at #2 where he is going in most leagues.

Seriously look at his games last year and the defenses he played. He was almost always great against weak run Ds, and almost always terrible against good ones.

Forte is the featured back - plus he's got a real QB now who will make teams fear the passing game - PLUS he gets a lot of catches.

MJD I think will do really well and hold up fine physically as the feature back in Jacksonville.
Good points. I would also like to add that Turner carried the rock 376 times which makes him a candidate for the curse of 370. I think LT2 is the only RB have a solid season the year after topping 370 carries.

Personally I would go

1. AD
2. MJD (especially in ppr format)
3. Forte
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Old 08-21-2009   #6
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Default Re: Advice on #2 pick in FF league

League is non-PPR - thanks for all your advice. It was just a flash in the pan thought but I think I'm leaning more towards MJD or Forte'. The Texans fan in me doesn't want MJD but he's hard to ignore. I just wish I could trade down a couple and make things easier.
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Old 08-21-2009   #7
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Default Re: Advice on #2 pick in FF league

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Originally Posted by TexMexVato View Post
League is non-PPR - thanks for all your advice. It was just a flash in the pan thought but I think I'm leaning more towards MJD or Forte'. The Texans fan in me doesn't want MJD but he's hard to ignore. I just wish I could trade down a couple and make things easier.
If you really want to go with a Texan player, take Slaton. I have him at about 6 overall, so it wouldn't the biggest reach in the world. He had more rushing yards, rushing TD's, and a better ypc than Forte. Forte's edge came in the passing game but since you're not in a ppr league and the Bears now have a QB who won't check down on every other pass.

Of course, Slaton could lose goal line carries as long as Brown is healthy. Personally I wouldn't take Slaton there but I also don't think it would be all that crazy.
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Old 08-21-2009   #8
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Default Re: Advice on #2 pick in FF league

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Originally Posted by TexMexVato View Post
All homerism aside, would you take AJ as the 2nd pick? If not, who would you take?
No I would not. With the #2 pick you want to get one of the elite RB's because in the 2nd round the productivity at RB's will drop quite a bit unless you pick that one guy who will have a great year. You can still get a great WR with your 2nd pick any way.

Roddy White or Reggie Wayne could easily be there in that 2nd round.
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Old 08-21-2009   #9
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Default Re: Advice on #2 pick in FF league

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Originally Posted by dc_txtech View Post
Good points. I would also like to add that Turner carried the rock 376 times which makes him a candidate for the curse of 370. I think LT2 is the only RB have a solid season the year after topping 370 carries.

Personally I would go

1. AD
2. MJD (especially in ppr format)
3. Forte
While I agree with Turners schedule, etc I don't buy downgrading Turner for 370 yet keeping AP #1, an injury guy when he had 363 carries last year...so 7 carries is stopping him from having a bad year?JMO. I think Turner has fresh legs from all his time backing up LT. I just think, as stated abovem his stats will be hurt bu the tougher matchups....though, you never know what defenses will show up every year.
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Old 08-21-2009   #10
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Default Re: Advice on #2 pick in FF league

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Originally Posted by HoustonFrog View Post
While I agree with Turners schedule, etc I don't buy downgrading Turner for 370 yet keeping AP #1, an injury guy when he had 363 carries last year...so 7 carries is stopping him from having a bad year?JMO. I think Turner has fresh legs from all his time backing up LT. I just think, as stated abovem his stats will be hurt bu the tougher matchups....though, you never know what defenses will show up every year.
I hear ya Frog. It really is just a superstition with little to no factual info to back it up. But for those of us that believe in the Madden Curse, we stay away from the curse of 370 as well.

Edit: I also agree with not knowing what defenses are going to show up next year. People will draft players based solely on their playoff matchups only to find out that a schedule that once looked very advantageous has now become a gauntlet. I bet most people are writing the Texans D off as a gimme at this very moment. Might be true, might not......
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Old 08-21-2009   #11
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Default Re: Advice on #2 pick in FF league

Nevermind. Is it points per reception (PPR)?
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Old 08-21-2009   #12
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Default Re: Advice on #2 pick in FF league

With the way my leagues score Johnson would have been the second highest scorer last season about 15 points less then D Williams. Usually you want to get a solid RB but it is not a horrible pick.
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Old 08-22-2009   #13
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Default Re: Advice on #2 pick in FF league

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Originally Posted by dc_txtech View Post
I hear ya Frog. It really is just a superstition with little to no factual info to back it up. But for those of us that believe in the Madden Curse, we stay away from the curse of 370 as well.

Edit: I also agree with not knowing what defenses are going to show up next year. People will draft players based solely on their playoff matchups only to find out that a schedule that once looked very advantageous has now become a gauntlet. I bet most people are writing the Texans D off as a gimme at this very moment. Might be true, might not......
Right on the defenses. People probably thought San Diego and Dallas were top Ds last year but the Merriman injury and others made SD ordinary and Dallas only played to their potential late after Wade took over(sans Baltimore and Philly)
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