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Old 08-18-2009   #1
Hookem Horns
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Default Comparing Texans Drafts

I was just looking at the Texans draft history. Just look at the drafts before Kubiak and after Kubiak. Is it any wonder this team appears to be turning the corner?

Here are the players we landed in the 4 drafts between 2002-2005 (39 picks) that are still with us and are productive members of the team.

Chester Pitts, Andre Johnson, Dunta Robinson, Travis Johnson (will probably lose his starting role)

(1 Pro Bowler)

Here are the players we landed between in the 3 drafts between 2006-2008 (21 picks) that are still with us and are productive members of the team. Not counting 2009 yet.

Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Eric Winston, Owen Daniels, David Anderson (<--all those guys in 2006), Amobi Okoye, Jacoby Jones, Fredrick Bennett, Kasey Studdard, Zachary Diles, Duane Brown, Antwaun Molden, Xavier Adibi, Frank Okam, Brandon Harrison, Dominique Barber, Steve Slaton

(3 Pro Bowlers *all in the 2006 draft)

Just click the link below and compare the drafts. It's like 2 different franchises.

http://www.databasefootball.com/draf...?tm=HOU&lg=nfl
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Old 08-18-2009   #2
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Default Re: Comparing Texans Drafts

Didn't Smith clean out some if not many of the scouts also? That might be a huge factor.
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Old 08-18-2009   #3
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Default Re: Comparing Texans Drafts

Keep in mind that Fred Weary would probably still be here had he not broken his leg. Of course on the Kubiak side Charles Spencer can say the same thing so I guess that's a wash.

I love kicking Charlie Casserly around as much as the next guy but I've come to the conclusion that it was a bad combination of HC & GM that really did us in. Casserly seems capable of finding some reasonably acceptable percentage of good players and Dom Capers appears to me to be capable of coaching good players if he gets them. Something about these two working together with a noob owner just did not work out. Between Bob and his man-crush on David Carr, Dom trying to hand pick the next Kevin Green in the form of Jason Babin, and Charlie trying to wheel & deal his way around drafts seemingly just to prove he was the smartest guy in the room these people were not effective. Even when we drafted talent we weren't any good at developing it or recognizing what we had.

I look at the players who are still in the NFL from those drafts and if anything it makes our original brain trust even more suspect.
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Old 08-18-2009   #4
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Default Re: Comparing Texans Drafts

With the news that Troy Nolan is being IR/waived, that brings to four the total number of players drafted by the Kubiak-Texans (2006-present) who are NOT currently on the team's roster: Charles Spencer, Wali Lundy, Brandon Frye and Nolan. Five if you count Brink, but he's back. One was a pure injury loss and another made some key contributions to a couple of wins during his only year with us. I suppose we could count Nolan as a pure injury case, but he had an uphill battle to make the team.

The other 25 players we've drafted in the last four years are toiling away on Kirby & Main as we type; of those, only Brink, Brandon Harrison and (perhaps) Jacoby Jones appear to be at any risk of not making the roster. I doubt any other team in the NFL has come anywhere close to our draft success rate over the last four years. Of course, no other NFL team was operating on such a clean slate heading into April 2006; had, say, Zac Diles been drafted in the seventh round by a better team, he may not have survived his first camp.

Still, the flexibility handed to Smithiak in 2006 was nothing compared to the completely open roster that the C&C Suck Factory started with four years earlier. It almost defies logic how poorly they drafted for so few players to stick with an expansion team. The vast majority of the clowns we drafted in 2002-2005 are simply out of football altogether. Those guys averaged one draft hit a year; the current regime is averaging one miss a year.
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Old 08-18-2009   #5
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Default Re: Comparing Texans Drafts

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Originally Posted by Hooston Texan View Post
With the news that Troy Nolan is being IR/waived, that brings to four the total number of players drafted by the Kubiak-Texans (2006-present) who are NOT currently on the team's roster: Charles Spencer, Wali Lundy, Brandon Frye and Nolan. Five if you count Brink, but he's back. One was a pure injury loss and another made some key contributions to a couple of wins during his only year with us. I suppose we could count Nolan as a pure injury case, but he had an uphill battle to make the team.

The other 25 players we've drafted in the last four years are toiling away on Kirby & Main as we type; of those, only Brink, Brandon Harrison and (perhaps) Jacoby Jones appear to be at any risk of not making the roster. I doubt any other team in the NFL has come anywhere close to our draft success rate over the last four years. Of course, no other NFL team was operating on such a clean slate heading into April 2006; had, say, Zac Diles been drafted in the seventh round by a better team, he may not have survived his first camp.

Still, the flexibility handed to Smithiak in 2006 was nothing compared to the completely open roster that the C&C Suck Factory started with four years earlier. It almost defies logic how poorly they drafted for so few players to stick with an expansion team. The vast majority of the clowns we drafted in 2002-2005 are simply out of football altogether. Those guys averaged one draft hit a year; the current regime is averaging one miss a year.
There was no Smith in the 06 draft!
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Old 08-18-2009   #6
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Default Re: Comparing Texans Drafts

successful teams draft well, only way to do it
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Old 08-18-2009   #7
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Default Re: Comparing Texans Drafts

I felt like the Texans were doing this when CC drafted and with what Capers wanted to do

drafting philosophy and coaching philosophy

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Old 08-18-2009   #8
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Default Re: Comparing Texans Drafts

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hervoyel View Post
Keep in mind that Fred Weary would probably still be here had he not broken his leg. Of course on the Kubiak side Charles Spencer can say the same thing so I guess that's a wash.

I love kicking Charlie Casserly around as much as the next guy but I've come to the conclusion that it was a bad combination of HC & GM that really did us in. Casserly seems capable of finding some reasonably acceptable percentage of good players and Dom Capers appears to me to be capable of coaching good players if he gets them. Something about these two working together with a noob owner just did not work out. Between Bob and his man-crush on David Carr, Dom trying to hand pick the next Kevin Green in the form of Jason Babin, and Charlie trying to wheel & deal his way around drafts seemingly just to prove he was the smartest guy in the room these people were not effective. Even when we drafted talent we weren't any good at developing it or recognizing what we had.

I look at the players who are still in the NFL from those drafts and if anything it makes our original brain trust even more suspect.
What has Doom Capers ever actually done? He's taken the reins of two expansion teams and driven both into the ground. Doom is purely a coordinator. He has no business being a head coach. Ever.

As for Asserly... I think that Asserly came to the NFL a little too late. He was a 'paper' kind of guy. It was rumored that he didn't even have a computer in his office. I don't know if that's true or not but I can believe that he would not get with the times in terms of technological advances. Being successful means being able to adapt to and learn about the services that are available out there. I believe that Asserly would have had a fairly successful career if he'd entered the NFL 10 years earlier. He just was too stubborn to even allow technology to get the best of him. Old school. He was too busy being a big badass boss.

Bleep 'em both.
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Old 08-18-2009   #9
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Default Re: Comparing Texans Drafts

That 2006 draft was pretty incredible - 3 pro-bowlers, a solid starter (and maybe eventual pro-bowl player), a good backup, a contributor from the 6th round - if Spencer hadn't been injured and had continued along the path he was headed in, this would have been flawless. Even if you remove the Mario pick (and make it as though we were picking last rather than first - I think you have to include draft position when evaluating teams' drafts), it's still a great draft.

While I think it's ridiculous to give Casserly the credit he claims (especially for the Mario pick), I do think you have to give him (and especially the scouts that year) some credit for the rest of the draft - he was the one who set up the evaluation system for that year, and must have played some role in the draft process.

As for other drafts, clearly Casserly's other drafts were horrendous. But, I'm not sold on the 2007 draft, myself (Diles is the only one I think was clearly a good pick, and I'm also quite positive about Bennett - Okoye and JJ need to improve to live up to their expectations, and I am still negative about Studdard, though for a 6th rounder he's done OK). The 2008 and 2009 drafts seem good, but it's too early to tell. Several of Casserly's drafts would have looked good if you just judged them based on how many players were contributing in the first 1-2 years they were on the team.

Basically, I think the great 2006 draft (esp. in contrast to the pre-2006 drafts) tends to color perception of the more recent ones. Before I mark Kubiak and Smith as draft geniuses, though, I want to see how our more recent picks pan out.
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Old 08-19-2009   #10
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Default Re: Comparing Texans Drafts

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hooston Texan View Post
With the news that Troy Nolan is being IR/waived, that brings to four the total number of players drafted by the Kubiak-Texans (2006-present) who are NOT currently on the team's roster: Charles Spencer, Wali Lundy, Brandon Frye and Nolan. .
First off Nolan is still with the team. He has been IRed

Quote:
8/18/2009 Signed free agent QB Alex Brink, LB Khary Campbell and FB Jonathan Evans. Placed S Troy Nolan on the reserve/injured list.
The official site just has not updated the roster.

IMO Caper had a better team to work with his 1st year here than Kubiak did in his 1st year. Why because Casserly always acted like outside of round one, the picks where such long shots he would swing for the fence instead of drafting the safe talent. And the coaching staff was in such fear of it's job that it stayed with old guys instead of trying to develop younger talent. So by the time Kubiak arrived we had a bunch of over the hill players not worth hanging on to.

Also I hate to say it, but 2002 to 2005 the drafts where very shallow with most of the guys struggling. 2006 was a very deep draft as was this season. 2007 was ok until you hit the last two rounds.

Side note, question? Is Lundy the only draftee of Kubiak's not still in the league? (Spencer signed with the new league so I'll give him a bye)
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Old 08-19-2009   #11
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Default Re: Comparing Texans Drafts

I've seen Capers and Casserly already. Might as well drop a Carr or two.
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Old 08-19-2009   #12
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Default Re: Comparing Texans Drafts

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Originally Posted by painekiller View Post
First off Nolan is still with the team. He has been IRed



The official site just has not updated the roster.

IMO Caper had a better team to work with his 1st year here than Kubiak did in his 1st year. Why because Casserly always acted like outside of round one, the picks where such long shots he would swing for the fence instead of drafting the safe talent. And the coaching staff was in such fear of it's job that it stayed with old guys instead of trying to develop younger talent. So by the time Kubiak arrived we had a bunch of over the hill players not worth hanging on to.

Also I hate to say it, but 2002 to 2005 the drafts where very shallow with most of the guys struggling. 2006 was a very deep draft as was this season. 2007 was ok until you hit the last two rounds.

Side note, question? Is Lundy the only draftee of Kubiak's not still in the league? (Spencer signed with the new league so I'll give him a bye)
To be fair, we did squeeze a couple good games from Lundy. It's quite scary to think about our running game between DD and Slaton.
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Old 08-19-2009   #13
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Default Re: Comparing Texans Drafts

2002 was a terrible draft/expansion draft to begin a franchise- lets be fair. 2003 they nailed Andre that's huge, just look @ Detroit. 2004 is when they got a little crazy, maybe desperate even. The Babin/Hollings moving on to 05 giving a 2nd & 3rd for Pburn was horrific add insult to injury the one gem Dunta is now franchised & holding out.

I don't think the Texans braintrust was on the same page, at all thus McNair brought in Dan Reeves.

Now the Texans have close to as you get a perfect balance, working relationship with one another as you can find. 2004 was the first year I really paid any attention to the draft & have not stopped since. How many fans out there love College Football? How many players have you said "the Texans should draft him" or "he is exactly what the Texans need"? The Cappers/Casserly era was a maddening time indeed, whereas the Kubiak/Smith era is filled both with success & hope for the future.
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Old 08-19-2009   #14
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Default Re: Comparing Texans Drafts

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Originally Posted by keyser View Post
As for other drafts, clearly Casserly's other drafts were horrendous. But, I'm not sold on the 2007 draft, myself (Diles is the only one I think was clearly a good pick, and I'm also quite positive about Bennett - Okoye and JJ need to improve to live up to their expectations, and I am still negative about Studdard, though for a 6th rounder he's done OK). The 2008 and 2009 drafts seem good, but it's too early to tell. Several of Casserly's drafts would have looked good if you just judged them based on how many players were contributing in the first 1-2 years they were on the team.

Basically, I think the great 2006 draft (esp. in contrast to the pre-2006 drafts) tends to color perception of the more recent ones. Before I mark Kubiak and Smith as draft geniuses, though, I want to see how our more recent picks pan out.
Great, great points! I'm a fan of Sm(ibbs)iak. I think you make great points about our general bias about what they potentially could bring.
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Old 08-19-2009   #15
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Default Re: Comparing Texans Drafts

Our 2007 draft is definitely in the "jury is still out" phase. Zac Diles in the seventh is the only pick we can safely call a good one (in my mind, if you get any contribution for more than a game or two from a seventh rounder, it's a good pick). Brandon Frye in the fifth is the only one not with us anymore, so there is still time for everyone else.

Okoye, Jones and Bennett have each shown flashes of tremendous ability during games, but they all had problems, especially last season. This is a crucial season for each of them, but I think we all agree the potential is at least there. If those three guys pan out this season (for JJ, I'm setting the bar at being a reliable and dangerous punt returner), then 2007 looks like another nice draft, albeit nowhere near the 2006 haul--which I consider one of the 5 best drafts of the decade by any team. I'm not counting on much from Harrison/Studdard, but if one of those two can be a reliable backup, then that's gravy for this draft.

As for 2008, Slaton is already in the books as a bullseye pick. Brown may already be the best LT in team history (thought that's not saying much), and it looks like we are counting on increased contributions from Adibi, Okam and Barber. Molden was looking like a player with potential before his injury. Too soon to tell, but I'm a fan of this draft so far.

Time will tell for 2009, but Barwin, Quin, Casey and McCain looked like NFL players to my untrained eye last weekend. If Cushing returns and if Caldwell plays like we expect him to, then this has the potential to be another outstanding haul.
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