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Old 07-15-2009   #1
Texans_Chick
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Default Football Outsiders predicts Texans ungood, Jags good, Ike very bad

Okay, here's part two of my discussion with Football Outsider's Bill Barnwell. Basically, I read the FO writeup of the Texans, and then I asked a variety of questions I thought Texan fans would be interested in, got the answers, and then commented on our discussion some more.

Talking Texans with Football Outsiders Part 2; Pessimistic prediction for Texan wins

I was interesting to me, so I figured it might be interesting to others.
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Old 07-15-2009   #2
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans ungood, Jags good, Ike very bad

Thanks for posting this. Great read and interesting stats. I don't buy the Jags either, though one of my best friends who coached there and is now the HC at Yale, told me that last year was blown because of their injury problems.
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Old 07-15-2009   #3
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans ungood, Jags good, Ike very bad

I call shenanigans on the Jags having a "bounce back" year.
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Old 07-15-2009   #4
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans ungood, Jags good, Ike very bad

I think Steph works for Big Brother...

Along the topic of the "Hurricane Factor"...

I think the Miami Dolphins busted that myth back in 1992 after Hurricane Andrew hit there. They were an established team going into the season, had their bye week moved to week 1, and still made it to the AFC Championship Game that year, even shutting out San Diego in the playoffs.

And then... there's the 1999 Carolina Panthers, when they were hit by Dennis (which pulled an Allison over western NC), Floyd (which was retired), and Irene. They finished 8-8 that season, which turned out to be better than the season before or after. (although '98 was with our least favorite Texans head coach...)

As you mentioned before, the '05 Saints after Katrina, slipped down 6 games from '04 and then rebounded the year later. Now, the big difference here is that the team was forced to leave New Orleans for the season, unlike the other teams on the list, which is a huge disadvantage, considering, as you said, they played a few "home games" in San Antonio. Also, in 2006, the team completely rebuilt by adding powerhouse players Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, and Marques Colston.
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Old 07-15-2009   #5
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans ungood, Jags good, Ike very bad

Quote:
Unfortunately the FO win projection may be right on the money. Any Texans game played today without Matt Schaub or Steve Slaton is more likely to be a L vs a W. At this point the Texans haven't shown that they have fixed those two BIG holes in the offensive game plan. Signing Brian Griese would fix half of the problem.
Seriously?

I know this is the worst time of year for football fans, but damnit man.

Somebody please put me in a coma til the 31st!
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Old 07-15-2009   #6
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans ungood, Jags good, Ike very bad

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Originally Posted by HOU-TEX View Post
Seriously?

I know this is the worst time of year for football fans, but damnit man.

Somebody please put me in a coma til the 31st!
Bob Griese would probably be better even...
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Old 07-15-2009   #7
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans ungood, Jags good, Ike very bad

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Originally Posted by TimeKiller View Post
I call shenanigans on the Jags having a "bounce back" year.
Well, unless they turn 'em into Shanahanigans, I'll agree with that.
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Old 07-16-2009   #8
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Default Re: Football Outsiders predicts Texans ungood, Jags good, Ike very bad

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Originally Posted by brakos82 View Post
I think Steph works for Big Brother...

Along the topic of the "Hurricane Factor"...

I think the Miami Dolphins busted that myth back in 1992 after Hurricane Andrew hit there. They were an established team going into the season, had their bye week moved to week 1, and still made it to the AFC Championship Game that year, even shutting out San Diego in the playoffs.

And then... there's the 1999 Carolina Panthers, when they were hit by Dennis (which pulled an Allison over western NC), Floyd (which was retired), and Irene. They finished 8-8 that season, which turned out to be better than the season before or after. (although '98 was with our least favorite Texans head coach...)

As you mentioned before, the '05 Saints after Katrina, slipped down 6 games from '04 and then rebounded the year later. Now, the big difference here is that the team was forced to leave New Orleans for the season, unlike the other teams on the list, which is a huge disadvantage, considering, as you said, they played a few "home games" in San Antonio. Also, in 2006, the team completely rebuilt by adding powerhouse players Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, and Marques Colston.
Too small a sample to really say what affect it has.

However, in a 16 game season, it doesn't take much as far as luck to be the difference between winning and losing.
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