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Old 04-13-2009   #21
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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Originally Posted by Hervoyel View Post
I'd say that with a defense that was twice as good as our own (say right at or just below 10th overall) we're a real threat to go deep in the playoffs. Our defense is our Achilles heal and we've basically been playing without one for the last three years under Kubiak.

Give us a defense between 10th and 15th (closer to 10th hopefully) and we're a force. That's odd to say but it's the truth.
Herv I agree with you, but I think it has to be couple with two other things.

1. Stop the turnovers on offense
2. Score more touchdowns in the red zone.
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Old 04-13-2009   #22
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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Originally Posted by pbat488 View Post
Actually, we beat ourselves more often than other teams do by stupid mistakes. Turnovers, blown coverages, sloppy routes, bad assignments, trying to make a heroic 1st down by jumping over the defenders..

The way we truly improve and become as good as or better than the other teams is to not beat ourselves first, and then the rest will fall into place.
I think this is the most significant post so far. Nothing against other posts, they were all good reads. But this one, hit home with me.

Are we out there, doing what we're taught to do, or not. With parity what it is in this league, the difference between a good team, and a bad team is the amount of mistakes they make. When we were out there, doing what we do, we were standing toe to toe with the Colts, and getting the better end of the deal. Then we made some mistakes.

There are times, seems like mostly on the road, when we start making those mistakes, they tend to feed on themselves, one leads to another, and another, and antoher.

Offensively, it's not so bad, because we have playmakers who can make up for those mistakes. Andre dropped a ball..... no biggie, when he get's 10 yac. Shuab missed an open reciever..... no biggie, when he's probably got the best completion percentage of any QB in the league, when throwing the ball 20 yards or more. OD, K-Dub, SS...... all playmakers.

On defense, we've got Mario, and Demeco....... & they can't atone for everybodies mistakes, including their own. If Dunta returns to form, that would be one more Playmaker for the D. But we need more.

IMHO, are we better than those 14 teams? I don't know. But like PBat said, we've got to stop beating ourselves, then we can find out.
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Old 04-13-2009   #23
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

I don't know that its where the defense ranks as much as it is what they do. I've been working (rather slowly) on an offensive efficiency rating. Something that combines, proportionally, the efficiency of the run game, the ability to sustain drives/time of posession, passing efficiency and turnovers and points all into the equation. Unfortunately, someone (my soon to be ex-wife) broke in and took my computer. So I might have to start from scratch. The bottom line is I don't think the rankings we use today measure the real performance of a defense. Thus I think we need a performance range (allow 3 fewer ppg or so) we can dramatically increase our win total. The other alternative, which would coincide with point reduction you would think, would be to get the offense one more posession per game. Getting off the field wears the other teams defense out... I dunno, I'll get back in the lab at some point and see if I can recreate what I was working on.

bottom line, we need to do more than finish in x place. We need to do predetermined things... hit certain benchmarks... then we've got a better idea.


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Old 04-13-2009   #24
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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are you talking 10-15 based on points allowed or total yards allowed? Tenn. had the 7th ranked defense, but gave up fewer points than the 3rd ranked defense of Philly.

scant little difference between the 10th-15th ranked d's in terms of yards allowed.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...true&Submit=Go

I didn't put much thought in the details there, I was just thinking that we've been between 22-24 for the last three years under Richard Smith and that if we could move up even half way to the top then we'd be making a difference on that side of the ball instead of just trying to slow the pace of the other team scoring a bit.

And to answer Texans Pride, "Absolutely. Fewer mistakes would do a world of good for us and maybe go a little bit toward helping the defense move up in the rankings. It sure would be nice to see the offense stop putting the defense in bad field position or back on the field through a turnover before they've even had a chance to get some gatorade.
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Old 04-13-2009   #25
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

how do I think "better"?
between the 20's I think our offense can do wonders, But what stalls us is our inability to punch it in..

I know captain obvious there..

defensively.. we could reach for the sky if we could just shut people down from time to time.
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Old 04-13-2009   #26
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

The texans have moved in to the really large middle class of the NFL. Depending on a couple things swinging one way or another they will probably finish bewteen 10/6 and 6/10 like about 20 other teams in the league. There are only 5 or so who are cleary better or 5 or clearly worse. Assuming the 2009 offense looks a lot like the 2008 offense then those who are saying that the Texans only need to get into the top 1/2 understand that will be enough to push an extra couple wins in 2009 and more than likely into realistic playoff contention.
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Old 04-14-2009   #27
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

Detroit Lions-Uhhh yea but they gave us a harder time then say cinccy
St Louis Rams-Yup
Kansas City Chiefs-this team in the past has given us troubles has well
Seattle Seahawks-i see this team also giving us trouble
Cleveland Browns-We can handle the browns
Cincinnati Bengals-Y
Oakland Raiders-Y
Jacksonville Jaguars- Umm no its up in the air IMO every year when we face divison foe
Green Bay Packers-if they played like they did last year then YES
San Francisco 49ers
Buffalo Bills
Denver Broncos
Washington Redskins
New Orleans Saints
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Old 04-14-2009   #28
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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Originally Posted by Texanmike View Post
I don't know that its where the defense ranks as much as it is what they do. I've been working (rather slowly) on an offensive efficiency rating. Something that combines, proportionally, the efficiency of the run game, the ability to sustain drives/time of posession, passing efficiency and turnovers and points all into the equation. Unfortunately, someone (my soon to be ex-wife) broke in and took my computer.
Rather than recreating the wheel, take a look at the Aikman efficiency ratings. They are real solid predictors on who wins games.
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Old 04-14-2009   #29
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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Rather than recreating the wheel, take a look at the Aikman efficiency ratings. They are real solid predictors on who wins games.
ouch........ according to the AER, we aren't a very good football team in terms of efficiency.
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Old 04-14-2009   #30
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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Originally Posted by Hervoyel View Post
I'd say that with a defense that was twice as good as our own (say right at or just below 10th overall) we're a real threat to go deep in the playoffs.
I want to believe that, and parts of me do believe it.

But, teams have to learn to win consistently. And this franchise still has to break the .500 benchmark. So until that happens, I'm not going to even taste the playoff koolaide.
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Old 04-14-2009   #31
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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Originally Posted by Double Barrel View Post
I want to believe that, and parts of me do believe it.

But, teams have to learn to win consistently. And this franchise still has to break the .500 benchmark. So until that happens, I'm not going to even taste the playoff koolaide.

I know, and we're in the learning stage but hear me out for a moment.

When your defense sucks as much as ours does your offense presses. They have to. They know that the defense isn't going to get it done and that they'll need to hang 30 points on the other team in order to stand a chance to win the game.

When they do that they make mistakes. Pressing too hard is bad for everybody. The offense plays tight and they try too hard to make plays sometimes and they turn the ball over on downs or through picks and fumbles.

Then the defense is doubly screwed because now not only are they not very good but they're in a hole and trying to defend a 30 yard field while they're tired and frustrated. They know that no matter how hard they try the offense is just going to go down the field and throw a pick or go three and out. So the defense presses too and that makes them even less effective than they already are.

Somebody has to step up and get it right from the start. Somebody has to take that first step. I think the offense did that last year over the second half and particularly when Matt Schaub came back and played his ass off. I think that all the defense has to do is answer that with a step forward of their own and then we're in 9-7 to 10-6 range and getting into the playoffs like those old Jerry Glanville era Oilers when they finally got all the young guys pulling mostly in the same direction.

That's with a step forward. If it turns out that Frank Bush has something going for him and wasn't just a feel-good name change hire AND we get a quality starter with one or two picks from the draft AND Antoine Smith works out then we're not just taking a step. We're making strides.
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Old 04-14-2009   #32
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
ouch........ according to the AER, we aren't a very good football team in terms of efficiency.
That's not news. We've all been complaining about Red-Zone effectiveness for the life of the team. This ranking puts a number to it (and thanks Infantry, I hadn't heard of it).
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Old 04-14-2009   #33
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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I'm the biggest homer on this board... a real rah rah guy. So naturally I say yes. We're definately a top 18 team in the league.

Ok now seriously.

YES.

I think, going into the draft... for the first time in our history, the list of teams better than us is shorter than the list of teams that we're better than.

NE
INDY
TENN
PITT
SD
DAL
NYG
PHIL
ATL

That's the list that strikes me. ARI had a good run, but come play in the AFC SOUTH and I think you have a different year. Problem is that two of the teams better than us are in our division.

That is a 2 second look at the teams. But before even looking at the team I thought we were 12ish... I wouldn't have a problem if you put us at 14 or 10 really... but I think thats about right.

Wow, spec never thought he'd see the day.

Mike
I think with both Indy and Tenn the gap has closed a little. We are a Sage boner and Richard Smith away from sweeping Indy. Minus Haynesworth the Titans should be a different team.

Atlanta is more of a flash in the pan and could go either way.

Dallas could potentially be back to normal or win 6 games. I don't buy the Addition by Subtraction theory.
T.O >>>> Roy Williams.

As long as Norv is the coach, the odds of under achieving are there. S.D is another iffy one.
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Old 04-15-2009   #34
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

I don't know about "better than" but we are "as good as" any team in the league plus or minus about 5 -8 franchises.
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Old 04-15-2009   #35
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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I don't know about "better than" but we are "as good as" any team in the league plus or minus about 5 -8 franchises.
Reading stuff like this from Vinny can only mean one thing: reality has finally caught up with my optimism!! Yes!

"We're going to the playoffs!
We're going to the playoffs!
We're going to the playoffs!
We're going to the playoffs!", in sing-song voice.
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Old 04-15-2009   #36
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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Reading stuff like this from Vinny can only mean one thing: reality has finally caught up with my optimism!! Yes!

"We're going to the playoffs!
We're going to the playoffs!
We're going to the playoffs!
We're going to the playoffs!", in sing-song voice.
yeah, for the record this is the first year I honestly project us into the playoffs....up till now you guys have always thought I wasn't optimistic enough, but I've been right till now for the most part. Hopefully I'm not gonna be wrong this year!
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Old 04-15-2009   #37
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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yeah, for the record this is the first year I honestly project us into the playoffs....up till now you guys have always thought I wasn't optimistic enough, but I've been right till now for the most part. Hopefully I'm not gonna be wrong this year!
Are you really John McClain?
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Old 04-15-2009   #38
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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Are you really John McClain?
no, because I'm usually more on-target with my insight and I tend to think for myself when it comes to NFL opinion. I cherish credibility more than popularity. That right there should stop the speculation.
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Old 04-15-2009   #39
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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yeah, for the record this is the first year I honestly project us into the playoffs....up till now you guys have always thought I wasn't optimistic enough, but I've been right till now for the most part. Hopefully I'm not gonna be wrong this year!
If you are wrong then it's your fault we didn't go to the playoffs.
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Old 04-15-2009   #40
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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yeah, for the record this is the first year I honestly project us into the playoffs....up till now you guys have always thought I wasn't optimistic enough, but I've been right till now for the most part. Hopefully I'm not gonna be wrong this year!
I ask again:
who ARE you people and what did you do with my usual & customary msg board friends???
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