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Old 04-13-2009   #1
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Default Are we really better than 14 teams?

Just a question I was thinking about.

1. Are we better than the 14 teams we draft behind?

2. Are we more talented than the 14 teams we draft behind?

Detroit Lions
St Louis Rams
Kansas City Chiefs
Seattle Seahawks
Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals
Oakland Raiders
Jacksonville Jaguars
Green Bay Packers
San Francisco 49ers
Buffalo Bills
Denver Broncos
Washington Redskins
New Orleans Saints
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Old 04-13-2009   #2
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

In 08, yes. I think we were better than some of the teams that are behind us too. Just to name a few.

Jets
Bears
Buccs
Probably the Fins too
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Old 04-13-2009   #3
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

I'd say yeah...
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Old 04-13-2009   #4
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

The Seahawks with a healthy Matt Hasselbeck could beat us. Of course, with a healthy Matt Schaub, we have a pretty good shot at 31 of 32 teams.
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Old 04-13-2009   #5
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Just a question I was thinking about.

1. Are we better than the 14 teams we draft behind?

2. Are we more talented than the 14 teams we draft behind?

Detroit Lions
St Louis Rams
Kansas City Chiefs
Seattle Seahawks
Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals
Oakland Raiders
Jacksonville Jaguars
Green Bay Packers
San Francisco 49ers
Buffalo Bills
Denver Broncos
Washington Redskins
New Orleans Saints
Well, some of them yes on both. Some of them yes on one. Some of them no on either.

Like Detroit. I think we're better than Detroit and we have more talent on the roster. Same with Kansas City.

But I'd have a hard time saying that we're better or more talented than Washington or New Orleans.

All that said, I'd like our chances playing any of those teams.
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Old 04-13-2009   #6
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

I think we are better than most now. I never go into a Sunday during football season KNOWING the Texans are going to lose. This is the year for us to prove it to the rest of the world now.
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Old 04-13-2009   #7
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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Originally Posted by mexican_texan View Post
The Seahawks with a healthy Matt Hasselbeck could beat us. Of course, with a healthy Matt Schaub, we have a pretty good shot at 31 of 32 teams.
I'd say that with a defense that was twice as good as our own (say right at or just below 10th overall) we're a real threat to go deep in the playoffs. Our defense is our Achilles heal and we've basically been playing without one for the last three years under Kubiak.

Give us a defense between 10th and 15th (closer to 10th hopefully) and we're a force. That's odd to say but it's the truth.
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Old 04-13-2009   #8
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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I'd say that with a defense that was twice as good as our own (say right at or just below 10th overall) we're a real threat to go deep in the playoffs. Our defense is our Achilles heal and we've basically been playing without one for the last three years under Kubiak.

Give us a defense between 10th and 15th (closer to 10th hopefully) and we're a force. That's odd to say but it's the truth.
What he said. A decent defense and we are a threat any Sunday.
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Old 04-13-2009   #9
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

I would say we are not necessarily more talented than all of those teams, but yes, i would say we are better. Not only was our record better, but we played in the AFC South.

We might not be better than New Orleans, Buffalo or Cleveland. It depends on which Browns team shows up.
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Old 04-13-2009   #10
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

With Shannahan calling the plays on offense, I think we can go the Indianapolis Colts route and just outscore everyone.
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Old 04-13-2009   #11
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

Any thing can happen any Given Sunday
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Old 04-13-2009   #12
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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Originally Posted by mexican_texan View Post
The Seahawks with a healthy Matt Hasselbeck could beat us. Of course, with a healthy Matt Schaub, we have a pretty good shot at 31 of 32 teams.
Let me guess, are the Houston Texans the 32nd team we don't have a good chance to beat?
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Old 04-13-2009   #13
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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Any thing can happen any Given Sunday
win a supa bowl and drive off in a hyundai

I think this is a team with it's arrow pointed up. If a couple pieces were added on defense this is going to be a team other teams look at and just know, we're in for a hell of a game playing those Houston Texans!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 04-13-2009   #14
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

We are not a bad team like we used to be. We have to be taken seriously these days. Not that we can consistently beat good teams yet, but if those good teams are not having a good day, we can take 'em.

It is my hope that starting this year we finally graduate from the average to the above average. Or higher. Higher would be nice.
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Old 04-13-2009   #15
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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Originally Posted by Hervoyel View Post
Give us a defense between 10th and 15th (closer to 10th hopefully) and we're a force. That's odd to say but it's the truth.

are you talking 10-15 based on points allowed or total yards allowed? Tenn. had the 7th ranked defense, but gave up fewer points than the 3rd ranked defense of Philly.

scant little difference between the 10th-15th ranked d's in terms of yards allowed.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...true&Submit=Go
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Old 04-13-2009   #16
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

I'm the biggest homer on this board... a real rah rah guy. So naturally I say yes. We're definately a top 18 team in the league.

Ok now seriously.

YES.

I think, going into the draft... for the first time in our history, the list of teams better than us is shorter than the list of teams that we're better than.

NE
INDY
TENN
PITT
SD
DAL
NYG
PHIL
ATL

That's the list that strikes me. ARI had a good run, but come play in the AFC SOUTH and I think you have a different year. Problem is that two of the teams better than us are in our division.

That is a 2 second look at the teams. But before even looking at the team I thought we were 12ish... I wouldn't have a problem if you put us at 14 or 10 really... but I think thats about right.

Wow, spec never thought he'd see the day.

Mike
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Old 04-13-2009   #17
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Just a question I was thinking about.

1. Are we better than the 14 teams we draft behind?

2. Are we more talented than the 14 teams we draft behind?

Detroit Lions
St Louis Rams
Kansas City Chiefs
Seattle Seahawks
Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals
Oakland Raiders
Jacksonville Jaguars
Green Bay Packers
San Francisco 49ers
Buffalo Bills
Denver Broncos
Washington Redskins
New Orleans Saints
Depends on which version of the Texans shows up.

The Texans that play the home games are definitely better than all those teams.

The road team/charity ball (tip of the hat to Mike Singletary) version of the Texans probably aren't better than all those teams. Specifically, the Niners, Saints, Redskins, and even the Bills would worry me if we were playing them on the road with the Texans offense that give the ball away 2-3 times/game
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Old 04-13-2009   #18
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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Originally Posted by CharloTex View Post
Let me guess, are the Houston Texans the 32nd team we don't have a good chance to beat?
Actually, we beat ourselves more often than other teams do by stupid mistakes. Turnovers, blown coverages, sloppy routes, bad assignments, trying to make a heroic 1st down by jumping over the defenders..

The way we truly improve and become as good as or better than the other teams is to not beat ourselves first, and then the rest will fall into place.
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Old 04-13-2009   #19
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

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Originally Posted by Silver Oak View Post
are you talking 10-15 based on points allowed or total yards allowed? Tenn. had the 7th ranked defense, but gave up fewer points than the 3rd ranked defense of Philly.

scant little difference between the 10th-15th ranked d's in terms of yards allowed.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...true&Submit=Go
This BRILLIANT, GREAT LOOKING, AMAZING guy posted something about ranking defenses one time. I'll just quote him because I think I'm all of the above

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Originally Posted by Texanmike View Post
This was born in another thread when Relianttexan asked me "If your going to judge the colts run defense on how they played in the playoffs then why not judge our defense in yds allowed the last 13 games of the season in which they were ranked 12th not 23rd.Or how bout we judge them the last 10 games of the season in which they were a top 10 D." I had pretty much ignored that "fact" because I didn't think it was possible that it was true. So this whole post is basically an answer to that question, but because of the scope it entails, I felt it was worthy of its own thread. This post will probably come in several parts because I see it being a lengthy but worthy read.

There is no standard for comparing defenses. You can rank them a number of ways. Ranking them by points allowed doesn't always work because its possible that the team's offense puts them in a bad position. So then you turn to yards. But then you have those bend but don't break situations.

My first inclination, when I read this was to simply take last yearís games, subtract the first 3 games stats from the total stats. Then Divide that number by 13 to get the average of the last 13 games. Then multiply those numbers by 16 to account for a full season. And Yardage wise, I'm proud to announce our Texans would have finished 13th overall in total yards, 14th overall in Rushing yards and an astonishing 11th in passing yards. If only it were that simple.

In some areas of the country, yards do count in the outcome of the game. Certain states will award a win to a team if after an overtime period teams are still tied, they count trips inside the 20 yard line and then total yards to determine the winner of a playoff game. Alas that is H.S. football. In the rest of the football world, the object of the defense is to keep the other team from scoring and if possible score themselves. Since for the most part defensive scores are an anomaly (with a few exceptions) they donít really figure into the quality of the defense (despite what any fantasy football player would tell you) we will disregard them for this discussion. Points canít be that determining factor either though. That is because the defense doesnít play in a vacuum. Some offenses have a tendency to put defenses in a bad situation, or leave them on the field forever. So if you canít look at yards and you canít look at points, what can you possibly look at to give you an accurate measure of a defense?

It was no surprise to me that total yards = points. Mathematically thatís easy to prove. Thatís probably why itís not the most useful stat to break down defenses with. But if you split up yards by total rushing yards and total passing yards rushing yards figure into the equation much more heavily than passing yards, in fact Passing yards is around the threshold of the critical value of r Ė meaning it just barely meets the criteria for a correlation. That is because unlike rushing (in which a failed carry results in negative, or 0 yards) a failed pass attempt doesnít really show up in the passing yardage. Itís just not a very effective way to measure passing effectiveness (or pass defense effectiveness).

This leaves you with yardage. What do you consider? Total yardage? That doesn't make much sense to me. Especially considering that the Ravens had almost 15% fewer plays on defense than the Titans did. I think that leaves you with yards per play. But I had to look to make sure there was a statistical significance between yan yards per play and points. So here is what I did. I took several major categories and from each team for the 06 season and compared them to points against. I then took the correlation coefficient and ranked them to attain the most relevant statistics. Here is a look at what each of the following statistics tells us and its correlation coefficient:

(note. The closer the number to 0 the lower the correlation. )


Total Yards ( .757) - This obviously has a high correlation to points. But like points it really doesnít tell us much. Because total yardage is divided into two separate categories and doesnít measure the importance of run versus pass defense, nor does it tell us what components of each respective aspect of the game are most important. Itís not a bad way to rank total defense but doesnít account for those defenses that give up a lot of yards while not giving up many points.

Rush yards allowed (.549) /Pass yards allowed (.332) Ė The odd thing about this is that passing yards had such a low statistical significance. As a sub discussion of total yards they are helpful, but given the difference in plays from scrimmage on one side of the ball or another which isnít accounted for, they may not be much help either.

Yards / Play (rushing and passing combined) (.772) Ė This was slightly higher than just total yardage. It tells you on each play what a defense yields. It will tell you, overall how the defense faired. What it wonít tell you is how the run defense faired or how the pass defense faired. It is very similar to total yards in that aspect but it also accounts for the fact that some teams had 800 something plays while others had over 1000.

Yards per Carry (.506) Ė I split this up from Yards per pass for a reason. It is kind of like the inverse of the whole completion % problem. Teams that allow a team to run the ball for say 3.4 yards, if they give up more rushes will actually stay on the field longer than a team who gives up 4.4 ypc. The whole 3 yards and a cloud of dust, take time off the clock phenomenon may be playing tricks with the numbers here.

Yards per Pass Attempt (.612) Ė Think of these as the WHIP of football. Statistically almost as significant as total yards by themselves they give you a better idea of what a team does on a per play basis. Ideally you would be able to split them up to where they happen but that involves a ton of work just to collect the numbers. Because yards/catch is so similar among teams Yards/Pass attempt winds up with an almost identical number to comp%.

Comp% (.615) is a little different number. But every bit as valid. Maybe more so. Most teams in the league will rank about the same in completion percentage that they would YPA since most teams are with in 2.5 yards per reception. Completion % though was a huge difference.

There will always be people who rank defenses differently. It is an inherently subjective ranking. You can argue that injuries, or a few bad games, or a few good games will skew the numbers. Between eras it becomes even more difficult. With the passing game having evolved as it has over the last 50 years more plays get run in a game. If you were going to ask me to use two barometers to to rank defenses within a certain year (2006 specifically) I would use the rushing yards against and completion% against numbers. They are specific enough to tell you something about the two different aspects of the defense while being broad enough to be categorized. An example of a stat that doesn't do that would be the yards per catch against. It doesn't take into account the completion% which since each team has a pretty close yards per completion average, is a stat that definitely figures into the effectiveness of any passing game.

I havenít run the numbers yet to see where the Texans stand in those categories (to eliminate bias when I finally answer the question) but I will in the morning and then Iíll finally answer the question I started out trying to answer.

Mike
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Old 04-13-2009   #20
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Default Re: Are we really better than 14 teams?

I think we're better than 22-24 teams frankly. More than that, IMO, only Pittsburgh, NYGiants, and New England strike me as teams that are going to be (likely)significantly better than the Texans. Otherwise, I'd put us in a group of teams like:
Indy
Tenn
SD
Phillie
Carolina
Arizona
Baltimore
Dallas

So, I'm on record, clearly I expect to see the Texans in the playoffs.
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