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Old 04-07-2009   #1
keyser
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Default Value of Owen Daniels

With the announcement of Winslow's incredible deal, it got me thinking again about Owen Daniels, and reminded me of something I wanted to post a while back. Back when we gave OD the high RFA offer, there was some debate as to whether he, or any Tight End, would be worth the cost (a 1st and a 3rd).

To get a sense of what a 1st and 3rd would be, I looked at the "standard" draft value chart (not perfect, but gives a ballpark). Obviously, the value of a 1st and 3rd varies by the team who would pay it. For the super bowl winner (pick #32), the 1st and 3rd would be the equivalent value of about the 26th pick in the draft. A team could move from 20 to 15, or from the middle (picks 16-17), to pick 12 or 13 overall. A team as high as 8 or 9 could trade their #1 and #3 just to move up to 6th overall.

So, the "value" of a 1st and 3rd could range a lot - the question is whether OD, or any tight end is worth that. Looking over the past several years of drafts, we have had a couple of TEs being drafted as high as #6 overall (Davis in 2006, Winslow in 2004). Others have been drafted in the "middle" part of the first round (Clark at #24 in 2003, Shockey at #14, and Graham at #21 in 2002, Franks at #14 in 2000). Most others have been drafted either at the very end of the first, or in later rounds.

So, to say that no TE is worth a 1st and 3rd would mean that no tight end should be drafted before pick #26, and obviously many teams disagree. As for Owen Daniels, he is now a known quantity - a pro-bowl Tight End. All draft picks are more shaky, due to the potential "bust" factor. If you could effectively draft someone that you already knew was a pro-bowl caliber player, that is almost always better than taking a chance on someone who you can only hope will reach that level.

I know there are a lot of other factors - how much a player is a product of a system, the salary demands, age, how much a team values/uses TEs to begin with, etc. But, the net result of all of this is that I think Daniels is worth the first and third round pick. It would not be unreasonable for another team to give us the equivalent of a mid-range 1st round pick for him, and likewise, it would probably take a pick in that range for us to draft someone we could reasonably expect to match the production of OD (factoring in the potential bust factor, if such a player is even available to draft that year).
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Old 04-07-2009   #2
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Default Re: Value of Owen Daniels

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Originally Posted by keyser View Post
If you could effectively draft someone that you already knew was a pro-bowl caliber player, that is almost always better than taking a chance on someone who you can only hope will reach that level.
First of all there is no such thing.

When it comes to Open Daniels' value I think it's very hard to say because I think it depends greatly on who's eyes your looking through. Let it be known that he's my favorite Texan. I think he is a very good tight end who is only getting better but I think the offensive system that we run allows for him to really excel. I think he is worth more value in the sense that we could replace him with less of a drop off than many might expect. I think his blocking skills are really coming into their own. He's a very good route runner and has that ability to find the "spot" in the zone. But I think a guy like Dreesen could fill in fairly well and still put up inflated numbers. The one thing I can't say for sure with Dreesen that Daniels has proven is that he has very good hands at the point of the catch.

I would argue that his value to the Texans is actually lower than it is to the rest of the league.

I don't think he's worth the 1st and 3rd tender that he received. I think that is a safety precaution by the GM to assure he is retained before they have time to address his salary.

If an opportunity came up where we could get alot for him I would absolutely take it. If he's asking for a massive contract I wouldn't be suprised to see the Texans try to move him instead of pay him.
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Old 04-08-2009   #3
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Default Re: Value of Owen Daniels

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Originally Posted by keyser View Post
So, to say that no TE is worth a 1st and 3rd would mean that no tight end should be drafted before pick #26, and obviously many teams disagree. As for Owen Daniels, he is now a known quantity - a pro-bowl Tight End. All draft picks are more shaky, due to the potential "bust" factor.
Based upon this logic, OD might be worth a 1st and a 3rd. But, would another team actually PAY a 1st and a 3rd for him? I kind of doubt it. Daniels is a solid TE. No doubt. Solid, but not dominant. I would guess that the best we'd get for him is a mid-to high second rounder.
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