Mock Draft 1.0 Discussion

[Fiddy]

Originally Posted by TheTim5125

Can I be in the Mock Draft

You may be able to. I think texasguy346 is doubling up with the Bills, but the Bills dont have a 1st round pick. If no one else has claimed them, then ask texasguy346...

[Mistril48]

Originally Posted by Fiddy

That is going to happen. Teams dont like taking RBs in the top 10 ...

I don't totally agree that teams won't draft RBs with the early picks. It is true that a RB wasn't taken at the top of the last 3 drafts, but prior to that RBs were usually taken in the early picks. The following are backs taken before our pick (13th) the last few years prior to 2002.

Year . .Pk . . . . . . Player . . . . . . . . . . Team

2001 . . 5 . . . . LaDainian Tomlinson . . . Chargers
2000 . . 5 . . . . Jamaal Lewis . . . . . . . . Ravens
2000 . . 7 . . . . Thomas Jones . . . . . . . Cardinals
2000. . 11 . . . . Ron Dayne . . . . . . . . . Giants
1999 . . 4. . . . . Edgerrin James . . . . . . Colts
1999 . . 5. . . . . Ricky Williams . . . . . . . Saints
1998 . . 5. . . . . Curtis Enis . . . . . . . . . Bears
1998 . . 9. . . . . Fred Taylor . . . . . . . . .Jaguars
1997. . 12 . . . . Warrick Dunn . . . . . . . .Buccaneers
1996 . . 6. . . . . Lawrence Phillips . . . . . Rams
1996 . . 8. . . . . Tim Biakabutuka. . . . . . Carolina
1995 . . 1. . . . . Ki-Jana Carter . . . . . . . Bengals
1994 . . 2. . . . . Marshall Faulk . . . . . . . Colts
1993 . . 3. . . . . Garrison Hearst . . . . . . Cardinals
1993. . 10 . . . . Jerome Bettis . . . . . . . .Rams

I agree that 3 is a lot to absorb. Some teams don't need RBs, in the same way we won't draft a QB with the 13th pick. I just think it's a little early to say. We have a long way to go between now and draft day. All 3 (Benson, Brown, Williams) may have good workouts and depending on where traded RBs go (Henry), all 3 could easily go earlier than Jackson last year, etc.

In terms of longevity, the general manager and coach won't have much longevity if they don't get their programs going and a franchise RB can be a quick fix.

[beerlover]

check this out from Great Blue North-

Five-pack of teams looking at Bills' RB Henry... Buffalo RB Travis Henry, whom the Bills gave permission to seek a trade for himself, says that five teams have expressed an interest in acquiring his services. Henry, who became expendable in Buffalo when Willis McGahee emerged as star #1 back this season, in fact, identified Tampa Bay as one team interested in his services. Other teams believed to have some interest in Henry are Arizona, Miami, Carolina and Oakland. Henry, though, isn't the only veteran RB on the market. Earlier this week, for example, Denver also gave RB Reuben Droughns permission to seek a trade for himself, while its widely expected that Minnesota could also try and shop RB Michael Bennett; then there's Jets' RB Lamont Jordan who will almost assuredly be an unrestricted free agent later this winter. And the fact that so many quality veteran RBs are, or could be available, this off-season, will also have a major bearing on how team's approach the position at this year's draft.

[Grid]

actually.. talk out of NY is that LaMont Jordan is willing to stay a jet if he gets starter pay. He knows that Martin will be retiring soon and he is gonna be the man at RB after that.

[beerlover]

thats common logic & maybe agent talk. I was one who really was selling LaMont to come to Houston, but that seems like distant light years away now. he was just trying to use any leverage possible to increase his contract, not that a blame him one bit, we all know money talks.

[ColdSteelBlue]

Just playing the part. Al Davis never makes sense. ifelt he was the BPA. RB is prob. got in FA. Davis is an impact player that can make a difference NOW. I did want Brown here, but alas he was gone. IMO Brown was the only do it all back. Not sold on Bensons speed or Williams power.

[Hottoddie]

Okay folks. The #10 pick is available for trade.

There are several quality players left on the board that might not be there when you pick. Players such as, Cedric Benson(RB), Carnell Williams(RB), Heath Miller(TE), Jammal Brown(OT), Elton Brown(OG), Shawne Merriman(OLB/DE), Erasmus James(DE), David Pollack(DE), Shaun Cody(DT), & Adam "Pac-Man" Jones(CB).

I had a trade offer on the table for the #10 pick, but the player they wanted was picked at #9 (Braylon Edwards). Don't let this happen to you.

If there's a player that you really want & you're holding your breath that he'll slip to you, here's your chance to guarantee that you get him.

Since I have 24 hrs. to make my pick, I'll wait until 11:00 AM (Houston time) tomorrow to make my pick, unless I get an offer too good to pass up.

[texansalltheway]

Whoever wanted Edwards the Redskins are open to trade discussion for extra picks, so don't hesitate to inquire.

[Hottoddie]

For those that might like to make some trades, here's a list of the picks each team has through the first 3 rounds, according to NFL Draft Blitz.com.

Don't forget that there has already been one trade between Green Bay & Arizona in our mock. I've also included the point value of each pick (according to NFL.com) in parenthesis. Hope this helps.

NFLDraftBlitz.com

First Round

1. San Francisco 49ers (3,000)

2. Miami Dolphins (2,600)

3. Cleveland Browns (2,200)

4. Chicago Bears (1,800)

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1,700)

6. Tennessee Titans (1,600)

7. Oakland Raiders (1,500)

8. Arizona Cardinals (1,400)

9. Washington Redskins (1,350)

10. Detroit Lions (1,300)

11. Dallas Cowboys (1,250)

12. San Diego Chargers (NYG) (1,200)

13. Houston Texans (1,150)

14. Carolina Panthers (1,100)

15. Kansas City Chiefs (1,050)

16. New Orleans Saints (1,000)

17. Cincinnati Bengals (950)

18. Minnesota Vikings (900)

19. St. Louis Rams (875)

20. Dallas Cowboys (Buf) (850)

21. Jacksonville Jaguars (800)

22. Baltimore Ravens (780)

23. Seattle Seahawks (760)

24. Green Bay Packers (740)

25. Denver Broncos (720)

26. New York Jets (700)

27. Atlanta Falcons* (680)

28. San Diego Chargers* (660)

29. Indianapolis Colts* (640)

30. Philadelphia Eagles* (620)

31. New England Patriots* (600)

32. Pittsburgh Steelers* (590)

Second Round

33. San Francisco 49ers (580)

34. Cleveland Browns (560)

35. Philadelphia Eagles (Mia) (550)

36. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (540)

37. Tennessee Titans (530)

38. Oakland Raiders (520)

39. Chicago Bears (510)

40. New Orleans Saints (Wash) (500)

41. Detroit Lions (490)

42. Dallas Cowboys (480)

43. New York Giants (470)

44. Arizona Cardinals (460)

45. Carolina Panthers (450)

46. Kansas City Chiefs (440)

47. Houston Texans (430)

48. Cincinnati Bengals (420)

49. Minnesota Vikings (410)

50. St. Louis Rams (400)

51. Green Bay Packers (NO) (390)

52. Jacksonville Jaguars (380)

53. Baltimore Ravens (370)

54. Seattle Seahawks (360)

55. Buffalo Bills (350)

56. Denver Broncos (340)

57. New York Jets (330)

58. Green Bay Packers (320)

59. Atlanta Falcons* (310)

60. Indianapolis Colts* (300)

61. San Diego Chargers* (292)

62. Philadelphia Eagles* (284)

63. New England Patriots* (276)

64. Pittsburgh Steelers* (270)

Third Round

65. San Francisco 49ers (265)

66. St. Louis Rams (Mia) (260)

67. Cleveland Browns (255)

68. Tennessee Titans (250)

69. Oakland Raiders (245)

70. Miami Dolphins (Chi) (240)

71. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (235)

72. Detroit Lions (230)

73. Houston Texans (Dal) (225)

74. New York Giants (220)

75. Arizona Cardinals (215)

76. Washington Redskins (210)

77. Philadelphia Eagles (KC) (205)

78. Houston Texans (200)

79. Carolina Panthers (195)

80. Minnesota Vikings (190)

81. St. Louis Rams (185)

82. New Orleans Saints (180)

83. Cincinnati Bengals (175)

84. Baltimore Ravens (170)

85. Seattle Seahawks (165)

86. Buffalo Bills (160)

87. Jacksonville Jaguars (155)

88. New York Jets (150)

89. Green Bay Packers (145)

90. Denver-no pick (***)

91. Atlanta Falcons* (140)

92. Tampa Bay Bucs (SD)* (136)

93. Indianapolis Colts* (132)

94. Philadelphia Eagles* (128)

95. New England Patriots* (124)

96. Pittsburgh Steelers* (120)


Edit: ****! I just realized that all this hasn't been updated since January 4th. The draft order was wrong from the 18th pick to the 22nd pick & the 30th to the 31st pick. With this edit, I've adjusted the draft orders, including the 2nd & 3rd round picks. Which wasn't easy with the NFL's formula of shifting the teams with the same record, up one position each round. If anyone see's any errors, please let me know & I'll adjust it accordingly.

[texasguy346]

Originally Posted by TheTim5125

Can I be in the Mock Draft

If you'd like the Bills just let me know, but you wouldn't have a 1st Round pick. You'd be picking at around the 50th overal pick. Also I'd be happy to share what I think the Bills' needs are in order to help you make your pick. Just let me know what you decide.

[fresno8]

Originally Posted by texansalltheway

Whoever wanted Edwards the Redskins are open to trade discussion for extra picks, so don't hesitate to inquire.

That was a good pick, I wouldn't trade it. They have the defense in place, the running back and Ramsey will be fine w/ time and even if you did want an upgrade at QB the top ones are gone. Good pick I'd stick w/ it.

[Mistril48]

Originally Posted by Hottoddie

The #10 pick is ...

Good post on your selection and the Lions needs. I learned something about Tuck. My question is did you consider Merrimen and James and how did you compare the them?

[Hottoddie]

Originally Posted by Mistril48

Good post on your selection and the Lions needs. I learned something about Tuck. My question is did you consider Merrimen and James and how did you compare the them?

Thanks for the kind words.

I looked at both, but decided that Tuck had so much more upside & you can't teach speed. You either have it, or you don't.

I was actually considering David Pollack, but he seems to not have much more upside. Mind you, he's still a very good player & will make some serious noise at the pro level.

My main concern with James is his durability & lack of consistency. I believe that his consistency is just a matter of maturity & that he'll eventually overcome that. However, his durability is a major concern for me. He missed the entire 2003 season & had nagging ankle injuries during the 2004 season. Another concern is that he only had one good year. Prior to last year, he was just an after thought to scouts. Is he for real, or just a flash in the pan. Too much of a boom or bust risk for me.

Merriman is an OLB. He's got a lot of talent & upside, but at 6'4" 245lbs, he may already be at his ideal playing weight & I was looking for a DE.

[texansfan88]

Originally Posted by Mistril48

I don't totally agree that teams won't draft RBs with the early picks. It is true that a RB wasn't taken at the top of the last 3 drafts, but prior to that RBs were usually taken in the early picks. The following are backs taken before our pick (13th) the last few years prior to 2002.

Year . .Pk . . . . . . Player . . . . . . . . . . Team

2001 . . 5 . . . . LaDainian Tomlinson . . . Chargers
2000 . . 5 . . . . Jamaal Lewis . . . . . . . . Ravens
2000 . . 7 . . . . Thomas Jones . . . . . . . Cardinals
2000. . 11 . . . . Ron Dayne . . . . . . . . . Giants
1999 . . 4. . . . . Edgerrin James . . . . . . Colts
1999 . . 5. . . . . Ricky Williams . . . . . . . Saints
1998 . . 5. . . . . Curtis Enis . . . . . . . . . Bears
1998 . . 9. . . . . Fred Taylor . . . . . . . . .Jaguars
1997. . 12 . . . . Warrick Dunn . . . . . . . .Buccaneers
1996 . . 6. . . . . Lawrence Phillips . . . . . Rams
1996 . . 8. . . . . Tim Biakabutuka. . . . . . Carolina
1995 . . 1. . . . . Ki-Jana Carter . . . . . . . Bengals
1994 . . 2. . . . . Marshall Faulk . . . . . . . Colts
1993 . . 3. . . . . Garrison Hearst . . . . . . Cardinals
1993. . 10 . . . . Jerome Bettis . . . . . . . .Rams

I agree that 3 is a lot to absorb. Some teams don't need RBs, in the same way we won't draft a QB with the 13th pick. I just think it's a little early to say. We have a long way to go between now and draft day. All 3 (Benson, Brown, Williams) may have good workouts and depending on where traded RBs go (Henry), all 3 could easily go earlier than Jackson last year, etc.

In terms of longevity, the general manager and coach won't have much longevity if they don't get their programs going and a franchise RB can be a quick fix.

well that shut fiddy up

[Blake]

You are right. I doubt he will last to #42 in the draft.

Did you have any thoughts on taking Heath Miller? Or did you think it was a stretch?

[Fiddy]

Originally Posted by texansfan88

well that shut fiddy up

haha...no

recent trends and players that havent performed have changed that
2002 Draft - William Green, 16th
T.J Duckett, 18th
2003 Draft - Willis McGahee, 23rd
Larry Johnson, 27th
2004 Draft - Steven Jackson, 24th
Chris Perry, 26th
Kevin Jones, 30th

The average draft position of a 1st round RB over the last three years has been 23rd. And a reason I think we have seen a drop in the draft position of RBs is because players like Clinton Portis, Julius Jones and Davis. Teams are now saying why should we spend a 1st round pick on a RB when we can try to get a player in the 2nd or later.

Green has turned out to be a bust, Duckett shares the load, Johnson only started getting carries when Holmes got hurt, Jackson and Jones looked like studs while Perry barely touched the ball this year.

[Hottoddie]

Originally Posted by DC_ROCK

You are right. I doubt he will last to #42 in the draft.

Did you have any thoughts on taking Heath Miller? Or did you think it was a stretch?

I really wasn't looking for a TE. Detroit has 2 fairly good TE's in Stephen Alexander & Casey Fitzsimmons. With the return of Rogers to the receiving corps, a pass catching only TE isn't exactly a need position. With the return of Rogers & a year of experience for both Roy Williams & Kevin Jones, Detroit's offense should be much better this year.

Besides, even with the resigning of Shaun Rogers, Detroit should be in pretty good financial shape to make a run at Bubba Franks, if they want him.

[Mistril48]

Originally Posted by texansfan88

well that shut fiddy up

Not my intention. I don't think Fiddy is wrong at all. I'm just taking a broader look. Time will tell whether the last few years were a phase or a long term trend.

I'm not predicting yet, although this year's RB draft may be clearer after the Senior Bowl, combines, private work outs, FAs, etc. I won't put words in Fiddy's mouth saying whether he is predicting, or not. I think it would be fair to say that 3 RBs is a lot to absorb in the top 12 picks if not even 1 was drafted that high the last 3 years, but if all 3 end up valued as a Tomlinson, or James, it could happen.

I would point out that there weren't any WRs in the top ten of the 2002 draft and yet WRs went 2 and 3 in 2003 and 3 and 7 in 1004. In fairness, though, 3 years suggests a trend more than 1 year.

Another example would be LBs. I think there have been few early LBs the last few years because of talent, not a trend away from the value of LBs.

[Mistril48]

Originally Posted by Hottoddie

I looked at both ...

Thanks for the effort on the analysis. I think it will be interesting to watch the evaluation of this group (Tuck, James, Merrimen, Pollock) through the draft process. As you point out, it's also interesting that some teams are looking at them as DEs and some as OLB.

[ledzeppelin229]

Originally Posted by Mistril48

I don't totally agree that teams won't draft RBs with the early picks. It is true that a RB wasn't taken at the top of the last 3 drafts, but prior to that RBs were usually taken in the early picks. The following are backs taken before our pick (13th) the last few years prior to 2002.

Year . .Pk . . . . . . Player . . . . . . . . . . Team

2001 . . 5 . . . . LaDainian Tomlinson . . . Chargers
2000 . . 5 . . . . Jamaal Lewis . . . . . . . . Ravens
2000 . . 7 . . . . Thomas Jones . . . . . . . Cardinals
2000. . 11 . . . . Ron Dayne . . . . . . . . . Giants
1999 . . 4. . . . . Edgerrin James . . . . . . Colts
1999 . . 5. . . . . Ricky Williams . . . . . . . Saints
1998 . . 5. . . . . Curtis Enis . . . . . . . . . Bears
1998 . . 9. . . . . Fred Taylor . . . . . . . . .Jaguars
1997. . 12 . . . . Warrick Dunn . . . . . . . .Buccaneers
1996 . . 6. . . . . Lawrence Phillips . . . . . Rams
1996 . . 8. . . . . Tim Biakabutuka. . . . . . Carolina
1995 . . 1. . . . . Ki-Jana Carter . . . . . . . Bengals
1994 . . 2. . . . . Marshall Faulk . . . . . . . Colts
1993 . . 3. . . . . Garrison Hearst . . . . . . Cardinals
1993. . 10 . . . . Jerome Bettis . . . . . . . .Rams

I agree that 3 is a lot to absorb. Some teams don't need RBs, in the same way we won't draft a QB with the 13th pick. I just think it's a little early to say. We have a long way to go between now and draft day. All 3 (Benson, Brown, Williams) may have good workouts and depending on where traded RBs go (Henry), all 3 could easily go earlier than Jackson last year, etc.

In terms of longevity, the general manager and coach won't have much longevity if they don't get their programs going and a franchise RB can be a quick fix.

Look at some of the guys on that list -
Thomas Jones,
Ron Dayne,
Curtis Enis,
Lawrence Phillips,
Tim Biatabutuka,
Ki-Jana Carter
Ricky Williams (though not because of lack of talent)

Not exactly what you want in the top 10. Jones and Dayne are the only ones there left in the league I think.

Of course, you could hit on an All-Pro like:
Tomlinson,
Faulk,
Bettis,
Taylor,
James,
or Lewis.

Hearst had a few seasons over 1000 yards, but 1000 doesn't mean a whole lot anymore and only 2 seasons exceeded 1200. Dunn has 3 over 1000. Not what I call worth the investment.

So you have 5 out of the league, a couple average RBs, Dayne riding the bench as far as the eye can see and Thomas Jones hasn't really proven his worth yet as 7th overall. Then the 6 that have actually proven themselves worth the pick. About 50/50 you get the RB you're looking for in the top 13. That's about the same % you're looking at in the later rounds with much less consequence if you're wrong. Hell, Wells has proven to be a more reliable RB than some of those guys.

I think teams have sort of learned their lesson as their have been fewer and fewer RBs picked in the top half of the first round.