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Old 03-04-2009   #1
mussop
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Default Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

Ok I think its pretty much obvious most of us think a trade down is our best option. So here is mine.

Trade with Detroit. Detroit gets our first #15 (1050) and our second #46 (440). We get Detroits second first rd pick #20 (850) and their first pick in the second round #33 (580). On the value chart Detroit is getting a value of 1490 points and we are getting a value of 1430. So we are giving up 60 points which is the equivelent of a late fourth round prospect.

I ask for their 5th (43) as well but its not a deal breaker. The reason I dont worry about the value loss is because the first pick in the second round compared to a mid second is so much better value wise its worth it.

Alot of the players we will be targeting in the second will be gone (IMO) by the time our pick 46 comes along. This also gives us the option trading down again. This (#33) is the spot in the draft were there should be some very good talent left. It gives us a chance to guage whats left and decide if we can afford to trade down again and how far and still get a targeted player before the talent drops off. Remember who we picked the last time we had the first pick in the second round?

For Detroit they get 2 of the top 15 players without loosing a draft pick just for shuffling around a little. Imagine them taking Curry first overall and Mauluga at 15 or Bradford and then Maclin. There should be lots of options open to them that could really help their team.

This is a win win for both teams IMO.
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Old 03-04-2009   #2
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

Interesting...but the question remains...who do we take? I'm looking at Tyson Jackson and or Tyrone McKenzie...both players are great at there respective positions. Clay Matthews would be great but his lack of starting expierence is a major turn-off for me. Maybe we can take Delmas, but most people see him as a low low 1st round to high 2nd.
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Old 03-04-2009   #3
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

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Interesting...but the question remains...who do we take? I'm looking at Tyson Jackson and or Tyrone McKenzie...both players are great at there respective positions. Clay Matthews would be great but his lack of starting expierence is a major turn-off for me. Maybe we can take Delmas, but most people see him as a low low 1st round to high 2nd.
Jackson is redundent with the signing of Smith IMO. McKenzi is one of my fav players but I dont see him going before the late second round at best. As far as who I think we should take? I fine with taking BPA. There should be many good choices at our picks (with this trade) that fill needs.
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Old 03-04-2009   #4
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

I'll give it a whirl. We trade down to #22 with San Francisco...... and here's how.

Minnesota sees Michael Oher slipping down and trades up to #10 for him. San Francisco, worried he may get selected by NYJ, CHI, TB, etc. then trades up to#15 (Texans) to select Mark Sanchez. We swap 1st round picks and receive their 3rd round pick.

With the #22 pick in the draft, the Texans select Clay Matthews, LB, USC.
With our 2nd round pick, we select Donald Brown, RB, UConn
With San Fran's 3rd round pick, we select William Moore, S, Mizzou
We trade our original 3rd round pick to Denver for DE Elvis Dumervil

4th round on we look at DB, OL, WR
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Old 03-04-2009   #5
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

Trade down situations are tough to predict (obviously). The trade value chart is pretty strange.

Our #15 pick is worth 1050 points, so my most desireable trade down situation would be to trade our #15 pick for Detroits 2nd (580), 3rd (265), 4th (112), 5th (43), 6th (27), and 7th (14.2) rounders.

Obviously, while technically "fair" I don't think is very realistic. (i think a team is limited to a maximum # of draft picks!)

I like OMT's trade down into the mid to early 20s. I don't htink we miss out on anyone at 15 we can't get in the mid 20s
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Old 03-04-2009   #6
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

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Our #15 pick is worth 1050 points, so my most desireable trade down situation would be to trade our #15 pick for Detroits 2nd (580), 3rd (265), 4th (112), 5th (43), 6th (27), and 7th (14.2) rounders.

Obviously, while technically "fair" I don't think is very realistic. (i think a team is limited to a maximum # of draft picks!)
To the best of my knowledge, there is no such limit. The New Orleans Saints traded all of their picks one year and two picks the next year to be able to move up and get Ricky Williams.
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Old 03-05-2009   #7
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

Just got an idea when I clicked on ESPN's football page - T.O. just got cut by the 'boys.

Now here me out, I know this sounds like making a deal with the devil, however, the Cowboys might be looking for a new wide receiver after this release. I know they still have Roy Williams, Crayton, and a couple young guys that might be pretty decent, but Jones is an owner who loves his playmakers.

What if Maclin falls to us at 15? Would the Cowboys be interested in him? They don't have a first rounder this year, but what if they traded their second rounder this year, and next year's first rounder to move up and nab him? I feel like the first round this year is really unwerwhelming, and everything I read says that next year is going to be a much, much better crop. Of course, I'm sure people say this about most every year - but I for one do feel it's particularly accurate this time around.

Two first round picks next year in a stacked draft, plus another second round pick (where there is far more value) sounds like a pretty good deal to me. Let me know what you guys think.
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Old 03-05-2009   #8
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

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For Detroit they get 2 of the top 15 players without loosing a draft pick just for shuffling around a little. Imagine them taking Curry first overall and Mauluga at 15 or Bradford and then Maclin. There should be lots of options open to them that could really help their team.

This is a win win for both teams IMO.
I think Detroits best move would be to take Curry #1, and I like your proposal BTW, at 15 they should take James Laurinaitis but he might still be available at 20. Could see them trading back up to take a QB at 15 if they pass on one at #1.
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Old 03-05-2009   #9
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

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Just got an idea when I clicked on ESPN's football page - T.O. just got cut by the 'boys.

Now here me out, I know this sounds like making a deal with the devil, however, the Cowboys might be looking for a new wide receiver after this release. I know they still have Roy Williams, Crayton, and a couple young guys that might be pretty decent, but Jones is an owner who loves his playmakers.

What if Maclin falls to us at 15? Would the Cowboys be interested in him? They don't have a first rounder this year, but what if they traded their second rounder this year, and next year's first rounder to move up and nab him? I feel like the first round this year is really unwerwhelming, and everything I read says that next year is going to be a much, much better crop. Of course, I'm sure people say this about most every year - but I for one do feel it's particularly accurate this time around.

Two first round picks next year in a stacked draft, plus another second round pick (where there is far more value) sounds like a pretty good deal to me. Let me know what you guys think.
And we all (well, most of us) get yet another reason to root against the Gurlz in '09!
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Old 03-05-2009   #10
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

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And we all (well, most of us) get yet another reason to root against the Gurlz in '09!
Haha exactly what I was thinking when I read his post.
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Old 03-05-2009   #11
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

Detroit Takes either Smith or Curry.....then moves back up with the Texans and Takes....Sanchez or Freeman, jumping both New York and Tampa Bay. We gain another three, which is pretty close to another #2 . and puts us in range of Mathews... Robert Ayers (Long shot), or Sidbury. All three of whom have some sort of pass rush component to their game .

http://www.nfl.com/combine/story?id=...s&confirm=true
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Old 03-05-2009   #12
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

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Originally Posted by Ole Miss Texan View Post
I'll give it a whirl. We trade down to #22 with San Francisco...... and here's how.

Minnesota sees Michael Oher slipping down and trades up to #10 for him. San Francisco, worried he may get selected by NYJ, CHI, TB, etc. then trades up to#15 (Texans) to select Mark Sanchez. We swap 1st round picks and receive their 3rd round pick.

With the #22 pick in the draft, the Texans select Clay Matthews, LB, USC.
With our 2nd round pick, we select Donald Brown, RB, UConn
With San Fran's 3rd round pick, we select William Moore, S, Mizzou
We trade our original 3rd round pick to Denver for DE Elvis Dumervil

4th round on we look at DB, OL, WR

And then promptly trade Steve Slaton to San Diego ?

Move Moore to the Will to back up Adibi ?

Smith with Elvis ? wow. You've got your bar pretty low there Old Miss.
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Old 03-05-2009   #13
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

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And then promptly trade Steve Slaton to San Diego ?

Move Moore to the Will to back up Adibi ?

Smith with Elvis ? wow. You've got your bar pretty low there Old Miss.
Slaton and Brown would be an incredible RB tandem at a cheap price. Denver traded Portis after only two seasons for Champ Bailey. I love Slaton myself but what if Rick Smith gets a good offer and we can't re-sign Dunta. Do we have bigger needs? Of course, but I think Brown would be BPA and would help the team out a lot. Adding him wouldn't mean you'd have to get rid of Slaton. You could even have Slaton and Brown out there at the same time. Move Slaton out in the slot... the possibilities are endless and would be near impossible to defend. Having two RBs that good would only be a good thing.

William Moore provides good value if he slips to the 3rd. I'd take a chance on him there. Make him lose some weight to stay at safety. Probably back up Eugene Wilson for a while but he could become a starter eventually... Hopefully.

Weren't you still thinking about a DE/OLB guy in the 1st...or 2nd? A true pass rusher? Well the way I see it, Dumervil would best as a situational pass rushing RDE and not an every down DE. He's a better pass rusher than anyone in this draft currently, especially the 3rd round. Put him at RDE on passing situations, Mario at LDE and then have the DTs of Antonio Smith and Amobi Okoye = unstoppable. Our DL would be near complete if we could just get a guy to develop at the other DT spot (Okam, Robinson, etc?).
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Old 03-05-2009   #14
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

alright we trade back to 26 with Baltimore who is jumping ahead of theNYjets to take Maclin (both of the QBs are gone 1 and 10 respectively) and we take Sean Smith out of Utah. then with our second we take Ron Brace out of BC. then with the second second rounder that we get from Baltimore we address our inside o line need with Andy Levitre from Oregon State. we might be able to sap a third or a fourth out of the ravens too but i wouldn't count on it.

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Old 03-05-2009   #15
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

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Ok I think its pretty much obvious most of us think a trade down is our best option. So here is mine.

Trade with Detroit. Detroit gets our first #15 (1050) and our second #46 (440). We get Detroits second first rd pick #20 (850) and their first pick in the second round #33 (580). On the value chart Detroit is getting a value of 1490 points and we are getting a value of 1430. So we are giving up 60 points which is the equivelent of a late fourth round prospect.

I ask for their 5th (43) as well but its not a deal breaker. The reason I dont worry about the value loss is because the first pick in the second round compared to a mid second is so much better value wise its worth it.

Alot of the players we will be targeting in the second will be gone (IMO) by the time our pick 46 comes along. This also gives us the option trading down again. This (#33) is the spot in the draft were there should be some very good talent left. It gives us a chance to guage whats left and decide if we can afford to trade down again and how far and still get a targeted player before the talent drops off. Remember who we picked the last time we had the first pick in the second round?

For Detroit they get 2 of the top 15 players without loosing a draft pick just for shuffling around a little. Imagine them taking Curry first overall and Mauluga at 15 or Bradford and then Maclin. There should be lots of options open to them that could really help their team.

This is a win win for both teams IMO.
I'd do that deal only when our #15 selection is on the clock. It depends so much on who is there at 15. Usually there is one of those "Why is that team pick that player so high?" that shuffles the draft. It could happen that a real good player drops whose value to us outweighs the 1st pick in 2nd. IMO moving up from 20 to 15 is more valuable to Detroit than Houston going from 14th in 2nd round to 1st pick in 2nd. I think there will be a lot more options for us in the 2nd round to fill our needs. It does intrigue me. We could still get a very good player @ 20 or if I could then trade 20 down even better. Using your scenario, I'd probably look at

1st round #20 OLB Clay Matthews high but too good to pass up.
2nd 1st pick from trade Ron Brace DT
3rd Rashad Johnson FS
4th a) Trevor Canfield O.G.
b) Antoine Caldwell Center 6'3" 309 5.23
5th Cedric Peerman RB 5'10" 216 4.45
5 b if you get that in trade Joel Bell 6'7" 315 5.15 started 36 g @ LT
6th Gartrell Johnson RB runs like a tank 5'10" 219. Yes, another back. Slaton and Peerman rotating carries and Gartrell to punch it in from red zone. Moats? Who knows?
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Old 03-05-2009   #16
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

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Ok I think its pretty much obvious most of us think a trade down is our best option. So here is mine.

Trade with Detroit. Detroit gets our first #15 (1050) and our second #46 (440). We get Detroits second first rd pick #20 (850) and their first pick in the second round #33 (580). On the value chart Detroit is getting a value of 1490 points and we are getting a value of 1430. So we are giving up 60 points which is the equivelent of a late fourth round prospect.

I ask for their 5th (43) as well but its not a deal breaker. The reason I dont worry about the value loss is because the first pick in the second round compared to a mid second is so much better value wise its worth it.

Alot of the players we will be targeting in the second will be gone (IMO) by the time our pick 46 comes along. This also gives us the option trading down again. This (#33) is the spot in the draft were there should be some very good talent left. It gives us a chance to guage whats left and decide if we can afford to trade down again and how far and still get a targeted player before the talent drops off. Remember who we picked the last time we had the first pick in the second round?

For Detroit they get 2 of the top 15 players without loosing a draft pick just for shuffling around a little. Imagine them taking Curry first overall and Mauluga at 15 or Bradford and then Maclin. There should be lots of options open to them that could really help their team.

This is a win win for both teams IMO.
I like this scenario but think that it's dependent on the Lions not taking a QB at #1. If they take a QB at #1 then there would be no need for them to trade up from #20 to #15. I also think that it might hurt Detroit money wise to pick 2 players so high in the draft, they'll both be expensive. I agree with you about the move up in the 2nd round, that would be fantastic.

I think that our best hope for a trade down is if Sanchez is still available at #15 and Chicago, Tampa, or Miami want to get ahead of the Jets to take him.

I like Superdaves idea as well and Jerry Jones seems to be turning into the next Al Davis and just might be crazy enough to do it.
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Old 03-05-2009   #17
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

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I like this scenario but think that it's dependent on the Lions not taking a QB at #1. If they take a QB at #1 then there would be no need for them to trade up from #20 to #15. I also think that it might hurt Detroit money wise to pick 2 players so high in the draft, they'll both be expensive. I agree with you about the move up in the 2nd round, that would be fantastic.
Unless a top player they want falls to us. Say they take QB #1. Now if Andre Smith or Micheal Oher falls to 15 or one of their top rated D players, I could see them moving up for one of those guys.

As far as hurting them cap wise, Im no cap expert but the I think the switching around we did comes out pretty close price wise either way for them. In other words the cost of #1, 20 and 33 is pretty close to #1, 15 and 47.

Wonder what the cost difference will be between drafting a QB first or a OT. I would think a QB would command a higher contract. Does it work that way?

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I think that our best hope for a trade down is if Sanchez is still available at #15 and Chicago, Tampa, or Miami want to get ahead of the Jets to take him.
I ok with this.

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Originally Posted by Wolf6151 View Post
I like Superdaves idea as well and Jerry Jones seems to be turning into the next Al Davis and just might be crazy enough to do it.
I have been daying for years that Jerry Jones is the next coming of Al Davis.

Jerry Jones = Al Davis's mini me!
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Old 03-06-2009   #18
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

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Originally Posted by Wolf6151 View Post
I like this scenario but think that it's dependent on the Lions not taking a QB at #1. If they take a QB at #1 then there would be no need for them to trade up from #20 to #15. I also think that it might hurt Detroit money wise to pick 2 players so high in the draft, they'll both be expensive. I agree with you about the move up in the 2nd round, that would be fantastic.

I think that our best hope for a trade down is if Sanchez is still available at #15 and Chicago, Tampa, or Miami want to get ahead of the Jets to take him.

I like Superdaves idea as well and Jerry Jones seems to be turning into the next Al Davis and just might be crazy enough to do it.
Why would a team choose the Texans' spot to trade up to for a QB when the Chargers pick behind us? I think QB needy teams would target the Chargers for a trade up rather than the Texans. I sure hope it happens, but doubt it will.

Now, if one of the highly rated WR's or OT's fall to 15 I could see a team wanting to get ahead of the Chargers to get their guy. Who knows, really?

I just pray we're able to trade back somehow or another. I just don't see anybody worth taking at 15.
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Old 03-06-2009   #19
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

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Why would a team choose the Texans' spot to trade up to for a QB when the Chargers pick behind us? I think QB needy teams would target the Chargers for a trade up rather than the Texans. I sure hope it happens, but doubt it will.
They probably would but there is the chance that San Diego may be less willing to negotiate with them (or want more in compensation) than Houston. Chargers may be targeting a specific player that they covet too much to risk moving downw while the Texans on the other hand may think better value is with trading down.
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Old 03-06-2009   #20
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Default Re: Show youre best (realistic) trade down idea.

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Originally Posted by HOU-TEX View Post
Why would a team choose the Texans' spot to trade up to for a QB when the Chargers pick behind us? I think QB needy teams would target the Chargers for a trade up rather than the Texans. I sure hope it happens, but doubt it will.

Now, if one of the highly rated WR's or OT's fall to 15 I could see a team wanting to get ahead of the Chargers to get their guy. Who knows, really?

I just pray we're able to trade back somehow or another. I just don't see anybody worth taking at 15.
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Originally Posted by Ole Miss Texan View Post
They probably would but there is the chance that San Diego may be less willing to negotiate with them (or want more in compensation) than Houston. Chargers may be targeting a specific player that they covet too much to risk moving downw while the Texans on the other hand may think better value is with trading down.
Quote:
First round
Pk Sel # Team
1 1 Detroit
2 2 St. Louis
3 3 Kansas City
4 4 Seattle
5 5 Cleveland
6 6 Cincinnati
7 7 Oakland
8 8 Jacksonville
9 9 Green Bay
10 10 San Francisco
11 11 Buffalo
12 12 Denver
13 13 Washington
14 14 New Orleans
15 15 Houston
16 16 San Diego
17 17 N.Y. Jets
18 18 Chicago
19 19 Tampa Bay
20 20 Detroit (from Dallas)

21 21 Philadelphia
22 22 Minnesota
23 23 New England
24 24 Atlanta
25 25 Miami
26 26 Baltimore
27 27 Indianapolis
28 28 Philadelphia (from Carolina)
29 29 N.Y. Giants
30 30 Tennessee
31 31 Arizona
32 32 Pittsburgh
It is very simple why would you trade with San Diego and hope that one of the other teams that needs a QB does not trade in front of you with Houston.
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