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Old 02-16-2009   #1
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Default the 15 spot

is there a reason that so many folks have teams looking at the 15 spot to be the one to trade with, or is it just us Texans fans playing GM?

I guess if we're being mentioned, at least on this MB, the 1-14 teams are pretty much locked in to needs and BPA, but around our spot the teams below us start to get nervous if they see their coveted player in peril of being selected by someone else?

just trying to understand this draft a bit better is all...
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Old 02-16-2009   #2
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Default Re: the 15 spot

I am not sure where to find this info but I think that 15 to 22 is where a lot of trades begin to happen cause a player is sliding or a run on a position is happening.
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Old 02-16-2009   #3
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Default Re: the 15 spot

just look back one year
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Old 02-16-2009   #4
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Default Re: the 15 spot

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Originally Posted by beerlover View Post
just look back one year
The year before with Quinn.
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Old 02-16-2009   #5
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Default Re: the 15 spot

http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

There is a two thousand point drop from the first over all pick to the fifteenth.
Someone say Detroit who holds the 20th pick wouldn't have to spend very much if they felt there was one player who could make their rebuilding process much quicker for our fifteen. Swap of positions and a third would probably do the deal.

Inversely, the opposite holds true for their number one over all. Takes a lot of value to move up into the top five. And then you have to give someone a top five rookie contract. So is there anyone on the board who you feel is better than Andre Johnson or Mario Williams ? this board is tailor made for 3-4 defensive teams. Which probably means the guys in Baltimore are probably screwed.
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Old 02-16-2009   #6
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Default Re: the 15 spot

I think you have to look at the teams below us (#15) and exam their needs + the cost for them to move up to get their need player. We are at the break even point where a valuable player can be selected and not cost a huge contract. Things such as that team's history of selection, willingness to pay $ and willingness to deal picks have to be considered. Most teams will not trade up due to cost of draft picks. This is where Smith and Kubes get my applause. They have worked the draft to get what they need often in lower rounds. It was not unusual for Casserly to give up a 6 or 7 in current draft to get a higher pick next year. That can work, but the new guys have used the current selection to hit targeted players to add to team. To me it is the art of the deal.

IMO after the Detroit pick @ 20, there are few worth a 1st round pick that we need.
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Old 02-17-2009   #7
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Default Re: the 15 spot

Could be that there are any number of players/positions that we could select.

The most important things to consider when looking at draft trades are two fold:
(i) Does that particular team gain more by trading down and acquiring an extra pick or two? Texans, most likely yes.
(ii) What teams are selecting immediately behind them, what are their areas of need, and how does the draft board set up for those positions?

A team is more likely to trade up with us if they believe their coveted player will be selected between our pick and theirs. It's not as much of them afraid we would select him but either a team immediately behind us or another team trading in front of them.

Houston has a lot of needs and can most definitely benifit by trading down.
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Old 02-17-2009   #8
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Default Re: the 15 spot

The time leading up to the draft is a ebb and flow, with players stocks rising and falling. Last saw more trades then any draft I can remember with some teams stockpiling picks and others pushing to win now.

The first round is pretty interesting in the 13-18th picks generally because there are a few suprise picks and some elite talent drops. Makes an interesting scenario for teams on the playoff cusp area if they want to go ahead and select their guy or trade back and hope their targetted player falls to them.

I think what could be the catalyst for a Texans trade again this year is a QB. I don't think Sanchez is all-pro but I am hoping he does well at his pro day and impresses scouts enough to think he could be. If Detriot doesn't take Stafford #1 overall he could fall to #10 with San Fran. Now if they pass on him texans are poised right before the Jets, Bears, Bucs and Detriot's second pick all need some stability long term at QB.
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Old 02-17-2009   #9
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Default Re: the 15 spot

I'm convinced that we have to address DE pretty early in the draft. McClain is driving me nuts with his assertion that the Texans are specifically looking to get a LDE because they want to keep Mario on the right side. Today, he said that Tyson Jackson doesn't fit and is better suited for an end in a 3-4. Meanwhile, he has dismissed all the pure rushers like Orakpo, Maybin, Curry, MJohnson as being too small to play on the left side. I would love to dismiss all of this as the musings of a fool but he is strongly suggesting he received this info from a source inside the organization.

It seems to me that any DE who can rush the pass will be more effective on the weakside since it is usually the blind side and the side that receives fewer double teams. It would be tragic if we avoided speed rushers simply because they would need to play on the weakside and someone believes that's Mario's better end. Reggie White and Michael Strahan aren't available with the 15th pick of the draft. If we're serious about improving our pass rush, the best answer seems to me to pair a speed rusher with Mario... Frankly, I don't care which side they come from and would expect two players with varied skill sets to do some pre-snap moving around on passing downs anyway... THoughts?
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Old 02-17-2009   #10
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Default Re: the 15 spot

Mario is going to be too much to handle no matter which side we put him on.

If we decide to go DE, I say we take the top guy and if he can only play the right side then we put Mario on the left side.
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Old 02-17-2009   #11
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Default Re: the 15 spot

We MUST go DE with 15 or 46. If we miss out on Orakpo and Brown, I say we wait and hope for Kruger in the 2nd, or maybe get really lucky and get Ayers if he slides (doubtful).

I'm also on the "hope we trade down" wagon, because I think the best value at the position is in the late part of the first round... but if we can't trade down, the above is how I feel.

Now - if we wait to 46 and Kruger and Ayers aren't there, yikes - I've made a huge mistake.
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Old 02-17-2009   #12
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Default Re: the 15 spot

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
I would love to dismiss all of this as the musings of a fool but he is strongly suggesting he received this info from a source inside the organization.
Yeah but is the cleaning lady on the night shift really considered a source?
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Old 02-17-2009   #13
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Default Re: the 15 spot

Quote:
Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
I would love to dismiss all of this as the musings of a fool but he is strongly suggesting he received this info from a source inside the organization.
He always makes his "rumors" sound this way. Half the time they're right, half the time they're wrong and he keeps on going.

I can see where a lot of people in the FO might not feel that the top tier DE's match what they want at that position. But I don't think it's as silly as "because Mario should go on the right side".
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Old 02-17-2009   #14
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Default Re: the 15 spot

Quote:
Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
I'm convinced that we have to address DE pretty early in the draft. McClain is driving me nuts with his assertion that the Texans are specifically looking to get a LDE because they want to keep Mario on the right side. Today, he said that Tyson Jackson doesn't fit and is better suited for an end in a 3-4. Meanwhile, he has dismissed all the pure rushers like Orakpo, Maybin, Curry, MJohnson as being too small to play on the left side. I would love to dismiss all of this as the musings of a fool but he is strongly suggesting he received this info from a source inside the organization.

It seems to me that any DE who can rush the pass will be more effective on the weakside since it is usually the blind side and the side that receives fewer double teams. It would be tragic if we avoided speed rushers simply because they would need to play on the weakside and someone believes that's Mario's better end. Reggie White and Michael Strahan aren't available with the 15th pick of the draft. If we're serious about improving our pass rush, the best answer seems to me to pair a speed rusher with Mario... Frankly, I don't care which side they come from and would expect two players with varied skill sets to do some pre-snap moving around on passing downs anyway... THoughts?
I hear ya. I have a hard time understanding why he keeps hitting the "Keeping him at the RDE" theme for Mario when he clearly had his best games from the LDE spot. IMO, you put Mario at LDE and line up a speed guy at RDE and see who clubs the QB to death first. And maybe, just maybe, Amboi find his way up the middle to steamroll the QB flat a time or 2.
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Old 02-17-2009   #15
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Default Re: the 15 spot

The Miami Dolphins didn't like being 1st last year...they had alot to think about... who were they gonna draft and would their draft choice hold out(ala JaMarcus Russel)...so they talked with a few candidates and came to terms with Jake Long..Trades can happen anywhere if a team covets a player they want...No team wants to be 1st because of all the guaranteed $$$ that goes against the cap with their pick...I know I'm a little off topic here, but the tequila made me do it
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Old 02-17-2009   #16
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Default Re: the 15 spot

A look at the last 7 years at the 15 spot.
2008-KC-Brandon Albert
2007-PIT-Lawrence Timmons
2006-STL-Tye Hill
2005-KC- Derrick Johnson
2004-TB-Michael Clayton
2003-PHI-Jerome McDougle
2002-TEN-Albert Haynesworth

I think its a good position to be in the draft with the right scouting we can pull down a quality player.
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Old 02-17-2009   #17
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Default Re: the 15 spot

Quote:
Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
I'm convinced that we have to address DE pretty early in the draft. McClain is driving me nuts with his assertion that the Texans are specifically looking to get a LDE because they want to keep Mario on the right side. Today, he said that Tyson Jackson doesn't fit and is better suited for an end in a 3-4. Meanwhile, he has dismissed all the pure rushers like Orakpo, Maybin, Curry, MJohnson as being too small to play on the left side. I would love to dismiss all of this as the musings of a fool but he is strongly suggesting he received this info from a source inside the organization.

It seems to me that any DE who can rush the pass will be more effective on the weakside since it is usually the blind side and the side that receives fewer double teams. It would be tragic if we avoided speed rushers simply because they would need to play on the weakside and someone believes that's Mario's better end. Reggie White and Michael Strahan aren't available with the 15th pick of the draft. If we're serious about improving our pass rush, the best answer seems to me to pair a speed rusher with Mario... Frankly, I don't care which side they come from and would expect two players with varied skill sets to do some pre-snap moving around on passing downs anyway... THoughts?
Thing is we dont just need to improve our pass rush. We need to improve our run D as well. Adding a speed rusher opposite Mario is just going to weaken our run D even more. Throw in the the fact that our coaches seem to want quick penetrating DT's and well you see where im going with this.

I think the best route for us to go would be to draft a DE like Ayers in the second and a pass rush specialist like Brandon Williams, Texas Tech later in the draft. Or if we dont want to use a later pick on a specialist draft an OLB with pass rush skills that can put his hand down on third down.
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Old 02-17-2009   #18
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Default Re: the 15 spot

Quote:
Originally Posted by TexansFan33 View Post
A look at the last 7 years at the 15 spot.
2008-KC-Brandon Albert
2007-PIT-Lawrence Timmons
2006-STL-Tye Hill
2005-KC- Derrick Johnson
2004-TB-Michael Clayton
2003-PHI-Jerome McDougle
2002-TEN-Albert Haynesworth

I think its a good position to be in the draft with the right scouting we can pull down a quality player.
Im still praying for a miracle and Raji to fall to us at 15 and become our Haynesworth.
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Old 02-19-2009   #19
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Default Re: the 15 spot

This article just came up on WalterFootball.com and it got me thinking that maybe we could use our 1st round pick to go after someone like Dorsey or Hali. I don't know if something liek that could happen and maybe we trade our 2nd round and a later round for one of these guys, since they will have trouble playing in a 3-4. The only player I would want would be Hali and even though I talked about trading a high draft pick for him I'm still not sure about him due to his slump last year, but you never know he could be a beast opposite Mario

http://walterfootball.com/mattblog.php
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Old 02-22-2009   #20
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Default Re: the 15 spot

LonerATO, I read the article from your link, and I totally agree with the author.

The Chiefs are throwing away last year's good draft, and then some, by changing Defensive schemes.

I'm so glad that I am not a Chiefs fan.

Hearing about the scheme change has to be like watching a train wreck for them.

They know what is going to happen, and they can't do anything to stop it.

It makes me a little sick just thinking about it and the Chiefs aren't even my favorite team.

If the Texans were to do something like that I think I would actually have clinical depression until apathy eventually set in.
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