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Old 02-04-2009   #1
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Default Which means more to you?

In evaluating Texans management does a first or second round selection not doing so well matter more to you than a lower round pick becoming a starter or at least performing well above projection?

Adibi, Slaton, Diles are lower round guys that started.
Travis Johnson and Okoye (gonna include him cause the decent rookie year was washed out by Soph year) were high round picks. They are not busts but neither has lived up to projection imo.

If the value seems more in the lower rounds, does this add incentive to trade down? I think Kubes has stated each round has a certain percentage of making the team & I have always chosen for the higher round selection to have a higher chance of performing; yet Texans seem to have done very well on 2nd day. This draft is shaping up with a lot of depth at our need positions in 3rd and 4th round and maybe 5th.
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Old 02-04-2009   #2
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

I think its great finding quality in the late rounds or in a UDFA such as James Harrison of the Steelers. It's frustrating for fans to have a first round pick not live up to expectations and it's exciting for a late round player to become a great player.

Of course it's more important to land a great talent on day 1 because you are paying more for the player. You wouldn't buy a Ferarri if it was going to drive like a Kia (nothing against Kia). You want players who are proportionate to the overall pick. I think it's a bonus that we have been able net some great players in the middle-late rounds and not completely bomb in the first round under the Kubes/Smith regime, it still is a little early to tell but that's the way it is as of now.
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Old 02-04-2009   #3
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

I guess I'm always looking for a trade down in the 1st unless there is someone there, when you pick, that you think is worth it. Obviously, they thought Okoye was worth it, and at the time, I did too. I still think he can be a stud DT but only time and the new coaching will tell. I do think Okoye's failure last season was the biggest reason Franklin got fired.

As for the value in the lower rounds adding incentive to trade down, I think it does, and I think Smith/Kubes believe it does too. And that could bode well for us this coming April because this draft class, to me, seems almost void of the "big name superstars" (like Bush, Young, Leinnert, etc..) and full of good solid players at most positions. I really believe, at this time, Smith will be looking to trade down in the 1st. All he needs is a trading partner.

So, to answer your question, the later round picks (3rd-7th) performing well is what I would look for in grading management. My reasoning is that if they can pick good players in the later rounds with some consistency, then they are less likely to miss in the 1st and 2nd rounds. Obviously, nothing is 100%! JMHO!
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Old 02-04-2009   #4
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

Very interesting thread and a subject I really havn't thought about collectively.

You have to look at what's really the most important. For the Texans (and me) that's building a winning football team full of high character football players. So whatever players want to step up and show they want to take this team to the Super Bowl... that's what means the most to me.

As fans, we all want these 1st rounders to be superstars, deep down we do all want some all stars and some glamour, fun and exitement. Financially it sucks when they bust out... but 95% of the players are playing for their 2nd contract... even most of the 1st rounders don't get huge contracts. It's the 2nd contracts that make them the money.

Give me a field of 11 quality starters and I don't care where they were picked.
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Old 02-04-2009   #5
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

It is important to find depth and potential starters in the later rounds. That is being dedicated more than the other guys. It is more important to hit on the early picks. The money is tied up there. An early pick also gets more PT just by nature. The Texans have taken a risky drafting habit it seems under Smith by drafting potential players instead of the more secure players. Mario and Okoye were potential picks. When it works, it's great, but it is very hard to measure success early with those type of picks. A "bust" like Carr in the first round has meant a lot more to this team than the ability of Faggins to stay on the roster year after year. You have to hit on the early rounds. That is mandatory. Finding players outside of that is a bonus for good teams.
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Old 02-05-2009   #6
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

To hit on this again:

It's much more vital to our team that Duane Brown pans out than it is for Adibi to pan out. It is much more important to our team that Okoye pans out than for Diles to pan out. Everyone loves the "diamond in the rough" player. Smith seems to excel at finding them. However, I am not a huge fan of his drafting style (style - not particular players). I think he is too risky in the first round, but that is my personal taste I guess. Guys like Okoye and Brown are major projects that the jury is still out on. Mario was the same type of developmental guy and he has panned out. These players can go either way, but it relies far too much on a competent coaching staff for my taste since we have yet to have a competent staff. It is a style of drafting that will get a lot of attention either way. It's his style, but not mine.
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Old 02-05-2009   #7
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

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Originally Posted by YoungTexanFan View Post
It's much more vital to our team that Duane Brown pans out than it is for Adibi to pan out. It is much more important to our team that Okoye pans out than for Diles to pan out.
i agree 100%. im not much of a BPA kind of guy. you should come into the draft with a ranked list of your positions of need then you do your best to draft in that order. there are always exceptions to the rules of coarse (for example i was a little ticked when Smith traded down last year with Mendenhall still on the board) but you should try your best to draft need first.
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Old 02-05-2009   #8
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

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i agree 100%. im not much of a BPA kind of guy. you should come into the draft with a ranked list of your positions of need then you do your best to draft in that order. there are always exceptions to the rules of coarse (for example i was a little ticked when Smith traded down last year with Mendenhall still on the board) but you should try your best to draft need first.
I tend to agree with drafting for need rather than BPA also with some exceptions. Am I out of line in thinking that the #15 could be worth a first and second if last season's #18 was worth a 3rd and 6th? I know it depends on team and how far down. I am looking for a possibe trade with Atlanta for #25 and a 2nd. ATL has big needs for Oline, TE and maybe RG. ALso need NT, SS and a WILL linebacker. That in itself may stop them from giving up a 2nd round and it depends on who is there at# 15. I'm think Houston will use all of it's ten minutes to listen to offers. At least I hope there are seductive offers.
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Old 02-05-2009   #9
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

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I tend to agree with drafting for need rather than BPA also with some exceptions. Am I out of line in thinking that the #15 could be worth a first and second if last season's #18 was worth a 3rd and 6th? I know it depends on team and how far down. I am looking for a possibe trade with Atlanta for #25 and a 2nd. ATL has big needs for Oline, TE and maybe RG. ALso need NT, SS and a WILL linebacker. That in itself may stop them from giving up a 2nd round and it depends on who is there at# 15. I'm think Houston will use all of it's ten minutes to listen to offers. At least I hope there are seductive offers.
this is why i keep preaching the Baltimore trade. if they re-sign their big 3 free agents then their only huge need is another young WR which will allow them to throw in their 2nd. with Maclin likely still on the board, unless Al Davis makes a jump which is always possible, they could move up and take him leaving Smith with 26. this would likely allow him to draft his pick of all of the safties, Kruger, or any of the interior lineman (except for MAYBE Mack).
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Old 02-05-2009   #10
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

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Originally Posted by YoungTexanFan View Post
It is important to find depth and potential starters in the later rounds. That is being dedicated more than the other guys. It is more important to hit on the early picks. The money is tied up there. An early pick also gets more PT just by nature. The Texans have taken a risky drafting habit it seems under Smith by drafting potential players instead of the more secure players. Mario and Okoye were potential picks. When it works, it's great, but it is very hard to measure success early with those type of picks. A "bust" like Carr in the first round has meant a lot more to this team than the ability of Faggins to stay on the roster year after year. You have to hit on the early rounds. That is mandatory. Finding players outside of that is a bonus for good teams.
I agree with what you are saying, Smith seems much much more stable than CC was

to me he is light years a head of CC he was a boom or bust GM with all the potential players he kept drafting.

Somewhere a higher power saved CC from total destruction with drafting .. IF Detroit would have taken AJ instead of Rogers.. we'd ...I don't want to think about it.. Atlanta take D-rob instead of Hall

All I will say about 2006, (and hindsight is 20/20), I am glad we didn't trade down
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Old 02-05-2009   #11
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

all good coments above so I would only add - know & understand the system your going to use then stick to it. in Travis case we should be fair to him & let things play out his contract year with Bush as DC. when drafting players, a team in transition like Texans have been, it's difficult to properly develop & nuture talent if system changes that they were drafted for in the first place. I'm hopefull this time Texans stay on track, be more consistant then just draft the best prospects who fit "Kubiak's" system, the rest should take care of itself
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Old 02-05-2009   #12
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

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Originally Posted by Wolf View Post
I agree with what you are saying, Smith seems much much more stable than CC was

to me he is light years a head of CC he was a boom or bust GM with all the potential players he kept drafting.

Somewhere a higher power saved CC from total destruction with drafting .. IF Detroit would have taken AJ instead of Rogers.. we'd ...I don't want to think about it.. Atlanta take D-rob instead of Hall

All I will say about 2006, (and hindsight is 20/20), I am glad we didn't trade down
Neg Rep for the horrific thoughts! JK, Wolf.

I nearly peed myself imagining such thoughts.
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Old 02-05-2009   #13
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

[quote=V3rm0nt3r;1113064]this is why i keep preaching the Baltimore trade. if they re-sign their big 3 free agents then their only huge need is another young WR which will allow them to throw in their 2nd. with Maclin likely still on the board, unless Al Davis makes a jump which is always possible, they could move up and take him leaving Smith with 26. this would likely allow him to draft his pick of all of the safties, Kruger, or any of the interior lineman (except for MAYBE Mack).[/QUOTE The only problem with dropping too far is the 2nd round is really low but probably still worth trade.
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Old 02-05-2009   #14
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

If I understand the question right, I'm gonna say I appreciate a GM that hits on those late round picks moreso than a GM that is good in the first round.

Most people off the street can close their eyes and pick up a talented player in the first round. Even if you're trying to pick a bust you would still occasionally pick talented players. With all the mock drafts and draft rankings, the first round can be handled by novice GM's IMO. Of course all those picks won't pan out, but I'd venture to say that most GM's have an average first round record....

I put more weight on a GM that can pick up late round/undrafted guys and turn them into solid contributors/stars because I think that is something that is harder to do. Although a first rounder will have more money tied into him, he is only one player. If a GM can consistently get atleast solid contributors from the latter rounds and free agency I view that as more valuable because that means you will consistently have a strong foundation. JMO.

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It's much more vital to our team that Duane Brown pans out than it is for Adibi to pan out. It is much more important to our team that Okoye pans out than for Diles to pan out.
I disagree.

I don't know how you can quantify "vital". So many different things can happen to where a first round pick busting may not mean as much to a franchise as a late round pick becoming a star. Look at the pats...Tom Brady becoming a star has been more "vital" to their franchise than if Vince Wilfork would have busted...Look at the Titans with Vince and the Cardinals with Matt...I think that the development of Steve Slaton was much more vital to us as a team last year then the development of Duane Brown...

What's vital is that we have 11 guys that can get the job done. Doesn't really matter where they come from.

If Duane Brown busts, but we have undrafted guys picking up the slack then Duane Brown busting won't matter.

1st round busts have more of an impact on the franchise money wise, but I don't see how you can say it's more vital that Duane Brown pans out than Adibi because Duane Brown can bust, we move someone else in there thats more capable, Adibi becomes a stud and a start on defense. In that case Duane Brown busting didn't mean much wheras Adibi turning into a star meant a whole lot more.

What round a player comes from is not what's important. Having a GM that can pick-up atleast solid contributors outside of that first round, IMO, is priceless.

Our team sucked under Casserly because he was overall terrible at picking up undrafted free agents and picking up guys late in the draft. Smith has made our team much better because of all the "other" guys he has brought in. He's made making our roster more competitive because of picking up quality late round guys.

Last edited by Polo; 02-06-2009 at 08:41 AM.
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Old 02-06-2009   #15
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

In terms of the draft, it is more important that our top few picks come close to, if not meeting, expectations. Tom Brady developing from obscurity is a bonus. It wasn't expected. That isn't the draft. That isn't the question. Steve Slaton wasn't expected to play this role, thus, it was a bonus. Jason Babin was expected to be the edge rusher that he was drafted to be. That pick (the draft part of it) held our team back for years. It was much more important to our team that Babin busted than it was that Sloan Thomas start his rookie year. If we get that production from the lower rounds, that is great.

A team can't be made up of all stars, granted, but a team needs the early round players. If, by theory, all the latter round players were to excel while all of the early round picks were to struggle, how do you keep a team. The players at the end of the draft will be out-preforming their contracts, and will demand a new contract within their first few years. However, an early round pick gets more guaranteed money, meaning that if said early players are buried at the bottom of the depth chart, they are still being paid their top round money.

Also, Tom Brady was completely a bonus as NE already had an All-Pro QB that they were able to let walk. He was an afterthought, but turned out to be a great QB. That wasn't the issue posed.
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Old 02-06-2009   #16
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

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In terms of the draft, it is more important that our top few picks come close to, if not meeting, expectations. Tom Brady developing from obscurity is a bonus. It wasn't expected. That isn't the draft. That isn't the question. Steve Slaton wasn't expected to play this role, thus, it was a bonus. Jason Babin was expected to be the edge rusher that he was drafted to be. That pick (the draft part of it) held our team back for years. It was much more important to our team that Babin busted than it was that Sloan Thomas start his rookie year. If we get that production from the lower rounds, that is great.

A team can't be made up of all stars, granted, but a team needs the early round players. If, by theory, all the latter round players were to excel while all of the early round picks were to struggle, how do you keep a team. The players at the end of the draft will be out-preforming their contracts, and will demand a new contract within their first few years. However, an early round pick gets more guaranteed money, meaning that if said early players are buried at the bottom of the depth chart, they are still being paid their top round money.

Also, Tom Brady was completely a bonus as NE already had an All-Pro QB that they were able to let walk. He was an afterthought, but turned out to be a great QB. That wasn't the issue posed.
its hard to educate people on draft dynamics, ytf
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Old 02-06-2009   #17
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

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If Duane Brown busts, but we have undrafted guys picking up the slack then Duane Brown busting won't matter.

1st round busts have more of an impact on the franchise money wise, but I don't see how you can say it's more vital that Duane Brown pans out than Adibi because Duane Brown can bust, we move someone else in there thats more capable, Adibi becomes a stud and a start on defense. In that case Duane Brown busting didn't mean much wheras Adibi turning into a star meant a whole lot more.

What round a player comes from is not what's important. Having a GM that can pick-up atleast solid contributors outside of that first round, IMO, is priceless.
If Duane Brown busts, then it has hurt our franchise much more than if Adibi were to not pan out. If Adibi as a 4th rounder doesn't become a starter, that isn't the end of the world. Wether he does or not is not the issue. If Duane Brown busts, we have not only wasted the first round money on him, but we have also wasted developmental years for other players. We have thus held our franchise back for multiple years where as we can (and should this year) draft another OLB to compete with Adibi without blinking an eye. This example is best witnessed by David Carr. Sure, the GM who drafted him wasn't very good with the draft, but by drafting that player, it took us 5(??) years to change our team. There were other players at this position available to us in the following years of futility that have gone on to be successful pros, but we did not draft one of them because of our current situation. That held our team back. An early round pick not only gets ridiculously more money than a late round pick, but an early round pick also gets more opportunity to become successful.
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Old 02-06-2009   #18
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

I think the Duane Brown example is a tough one because its at such a critical position (left tackle).

Another point could be that usually when a 1st round pick is selected, that pick is expected to perform at a greater ability than later round picks (obviously). But it would be rare for us to take Duane Brown in the 1st and then follow up in the 4th round with another left tackle. Or select Amobi Okoye at #10 and then take another DT later. Point is that POSITION is expected to be filled so if that player busts out, we may not have another option behind him. Even the "bust" of a player may not be THAT much worse than the backup behind him.

I team strictily drafting based on needs could find themselves in a really hard spot when the reach for a player AND he busts. The Babin example hurts all the more because we gave up so many picks to get him.
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Old 02-06-2009   #19
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

IMO we can't characterize Okoye or Brown as busts yet, and for that matter not Okam either. The DLine was all screwed last year apparently until the players themselves took over the coaching job. Okoye, besides being a Soph DT, was still the 4th youngest player at his position in the whole NFL at the start of TC. The kid needs a chance to develop his technique and man-strength. Two things he didn't get training or coaching for last year. I would love to get a big NT type player if the team coaches don't think Okam will work out, but I would rather not get him in the draft. Haynesworth would dream, but we would have to let DRob go to allow us to get him. Of course any Okoye clone, at this point would be a waste. Maybe Brace in the 3rd or 4th for the NT position would do.
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Old 02-06-2009   #20
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Default Re: Which means more to you?

Quote:
Originally Posted by krocket View Post
IMO we can't characterize Okoye or Brown as busts yet, and for that matter not Okam either. The DLine was all screwed last year apparently until the players themselves took over the coaching job. Okoye, besides being a Soph DT, was still the 4th youngest player at his position in the whole NFL at the start of TC. The kid needs a chance to develop his technique and man-strength. Two things he didn't get training or coaching for last year. I would love to get a big NT type player if the team coaches don't think Okam will work out, but I would rather not get him in the draft. Haynesworth would dream, but we would have to let DRob go to allow us to get him. Of course any Okoye clone, at this point would be a waste. Maybe Brace in the 3rd or 4th for the NT position would do.
Brace has moved up the boards to 2-3 round. http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings...2009&genpos=DT

If Raji gone and no trade occurs, I have Vontae Davis Cb @ #15 and Brace in 2nd.
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