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Old 01-29-2009   #1
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Default Franchise and Transition Numbers released

or how much it might cost to keep Dunta Robinson.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/...tags-analysis/

Quote:
The official 2009 Franchise and Transition Tag tender numbers are now known.



To refresh how tenders are established, a Franchise tender is an amount equal to the average of the top five salaries (salary plus other prorated amounts) at that position from the 2008 season. A Transition tender is an amount equal to the average of the top 10 salaries (salary plus other prorated amounts) at that position from the 2008 season. Once a player accepts the tender, the amount is fully guaranteed for the year.



As we approach the tagging period of Feb. 5-19, here are the official numbers, in millions rounded to the nearest ten thousand, with notes about the players and calculations leading to the numbers:





Position Franchise Transition



Quarterback $14.65 $12.44



This group is led by Peyton Manning’s 2008 number of $18.7M, followed by two players who played little in 2008, Tom Brady at $14.6M and Carson Palmer at $14M. The next two quarterbacks played together for three years, with Aaron Rodgers and his new 2008 Cap-heavy deal at $13.9M and Brett Favre at $12M. Our strong belief is that Matt Cassel will have the Franchise tag applied to him, making his 2009 Cap number very similar to that of Brady in 2008.



Cornerback $9.96 $8.37



This number was set by a couple of underperformers in 2008, with Chris McAlister – likely to soon be an ex-Baltimore Raven – at $10.9M , following only Champ Bailey at $12.2M. Nnamdi Ashomugha was franchised in 2008 at $9.765M and is hoping he’s not tagged again. The Raiders’ Cap problems may help his cause.



Wide Receiver $9.88 $8.39



The Colts have the first and 10th numbers in this group, with Marvin Harrison leading the way at $12M and Reggie Wayne 10th at $6.7M. Others setting the pace in this group include Lee Evans and his new 2008 Cap-heavy deal at $10.4M and Vikings free agent signee Bernard Berrian at $9.4M.



Defensive End $8.99 $7.78



Julius Peppers is front and center here, with a 2008 Cap number of $13.9M (meaning if he is franchised, his number will not be the one above but rather 20 percent above his 2008 number, or a prohibitive $16.7M). Others in the group setting these numbers include Jason Taylor, whose future is unclear in Washington or anywhere else, at $7.5M and John Abraham at $8.5M.



Offensive Line $8.45 $7.74



The top two 2008 numbers here went to Cleveland Browns, both being 2007 signings, one a marquee free-agent signing (Eric Steinbach at $9.2M) and one a top draft choice (Joe Thomas at $8.9M). Others include perennial All-Pros Walter Jones ($8.6M) and Orlando Pace ($8.2M). Jordan Gross played on a Franchise tag in 2008 at $7.455M and may be there again at a 20-percent increase to $8.95M.



Linebacker $8.3 $7.48



Like the offensive lineman, the top two 2008 numbers setting this pace were from the same team, with Ray Lewis ($9.4M) and franchised-Terrell Suggs ($8.475M) of the Ravens holding the highest numbers. Suggs’ number was the result of a settled arbitration that determined whether he should be treated as a linebacker or defensive end. Interestingly, both players are going to be free agents pending decisions by the Ravens, a team with Cap issues.



Running Back $6.62 $5.92



The top three numbers here from 2008 all have insecure futures: LaDanian Tomlinson ($7.8M), Edgerrin James ($6.8M) and Jamal Lewis ($6.4M). It will be interesting to see the changes in those numbers in 2009, as well as other vulnerable top 2008 numbers like Larry Johnson ($5.7M) and Deuce McAlister ($4.9M).



Safety $6.34 $5.13



This is another group with some high 2008 numbers that are questions marks for 2009, including Roy Williams ($6.7M) and Darren Sharper ($4.15M). Bob Sanders’ number of $8.2M led the pack.



Defensive Tackle $6.06 $5.45



Albert Haynesworth’s 2008 Franchise number of $7.25M led the group last year and will likely lead again in 2009, although under a new contract since the Titans lost the privilege to tag him again based on his 2008 contract. There were not a lot of high numbers here, although that will change in 2009 when option/roster bonuses kick in for players such as the Browns’ duo of Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers.



Tight End $4.46 $4.07



This is traditionally a number that provides good value to a team if there’s a player worthy of the tag. Tony Gonzalez was the only player at or above $5M in 2008.



Punter/Kicker $2.48 $2.26



Another good value for a tag, with Sebastian Janikowski the only 2008 number over $3M.





There’s much more ahead in the coming weeks as we analyze the decision-making of teams in choosing whether to apply these tenders.
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Old 01-29-2009   #2
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

Thats alot of money to be paying a cornerback recovering from what should have been a career-ending injury.
I love Dunta to death, but those cornerbacks are going to start looking alot better once the defensive 7 starts applying pressure.

Last edited by TEXANS84; 01-29-2009 at 01:31 PM.
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Old 01-29-2009   #3
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

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Originally Posted by TEXANS84 View Post
Thats alot of money to be paying a cornerback recovering from what should have been a career-ending injury.
I love Dunta to death, but those cornerbacks are going to start looking alot better once the defensive 7 starts applying pressure.
IDK man. We've seen Dunta play well even with the recovering injury. We haven't seen our DL put pressure on the QB on a consistent basis.
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Old 01-29-2009   #4
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

it's still a good value to retain him for one season and assess his value after playing a full season at %100. It's not that big of a number for a team with alot of room like the texans have. it doesn't mean that you'd have to continue to pay him anywhere near that number after the season is over. if he plays up to and beyond his potential then you have to pay him what he's worth but if he only returns to form you pay him an average salary. if he doesn't return to where he was you offer him a salary at his value.
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Old 01-29-2009   #5
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

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it's still a good value to retain him for one season and assess his value after playing a full season at %100. It's not that big of a number for a team with alot of room like the texans have. it doesn't mean that you'd have to continue to pay him anywhere near that number after the season is over. if he plays up to and beyond his potential then you have to pay him what he's worth but if he only returns to form you pay him an average salary. if he doesn't return to where he was you offer him a salary at his value.
Exactly. It's a trial year by which the Texans can decide which way they want to go and Dunta can prove to what capacity he can retain his abilities.

That number would also slot him, as it stands, as the second highest paid member of the team:
Schaub, Matt $10,250,000
*Robinson, Dunta $9,960,000*
Johnson, Andre $7,666,752
Green, Ahman $6,637,500
Greenwood, Morlon $6,268,000
Weaver, Anthony $6,200,000

Of course, at least 2 of Green, Greenwood, and Weaver should be gone. Possibly all 3. And we might bring in a FA that could challenge for a top 5 salary.

But, I think Dunta's intangibles combined with his on-the-field abilities justify one year at $9.6M in order to see where you and he stand going into 2010.
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Old 01-29-2009   #6
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

Funny contrast directed at nobody in particular--Rick Smith is a ding dong for hiring Reeves for 5 years at $20 mil but it would be a great idea to pay $10 mil for 1 year for Dunta?

Dunta is one of my favorite players--sign him to a reasonable contract, but don't franchise him.
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Old 01-29-2009   #7
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Funny contrast directed at nobody in particular--Rick Smith is a ding dong for hiring Reeves for 5 years at $20 mil but it would be a great idea to pay $10 mil for 1 year for Dunta?

Dunta is one of my favorite players--sign him to a reasonable contract, but don't franchise him.
He's a free agent... a decent contract may not be in the cards. It's not exactly a great market for free agent CBs. Don't you think it's possible someone will overpay for him? The question becomes, are you willing to protect against it by franchising him or are you willing to pay overpay him in order to keep, because they don't have anyone to replace him with IMO.
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Old 01-29-2009   #8
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

Considering how our D looked before his return and how it looked after his return, I say pay the man.
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Old 01-29-2009   #9
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
He's a free agent... a decent contract may not be in the cards. It's not exactly a great market for free agent CBs. Don't you think it's possible someone will overpay for him? The question becomes, are you willing to protect against it by franchising him or are you willing to pay overpay him in order to keep, because they don't have anyone to replace him with IMO.
Like I said, I like Dunta a lot and want to re-sign him, but not at any cost. I would go to him with an under transition tag (but not a huge amount) $7-7.5 mil per year long term deal. I think that is giving him the benefit of the doubt on fully recovering and recognizing his leadership, inspiration, etc. As an alternative, I would also offer him a one year transition tag level deal with a plan to talk after the next season--allow him to gamble on proving he can get at least to pro-bowl level (that's an interesting idea--can you do a multi-year deal which voids if you don't make the pro-bowl?). If one of those isn't good enough, bye. I just don't see how he could sit across a table and demand top 5 money.
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Old 01-29-2009   #10
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

If we do tag him, which I do not want to do, it better be a transition tag.
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Old 01-29-2009   #11
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
I just don't see how he could sit across a table and demand top 5 money.
You're talking about a guy and his career. He'd be stupid not to demand top 5 money (at first), because I bet a team would be more than willing to top a 7 million dollar a year contract.

Shit, even Drayton Florence got 6 mil from the Jags and he was expected to be a nickel. I think a franchise tag is a decent alternative because it's only for 1 year. It's not like you're going to lock Robinson up in a 10 year 90 million dollar contract if you franchise him.
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Old 01-29-2009   #12
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Like I said, I like Dunta a lot and want to re-sign him, but not at any cost. I would go to him with an under transition tag (but not a huge amount) $7-7.5 mil per year long term deal. I think that is giving him the benefit of the doubt on fully recovering and recognizing his leadership, inspiration, etc. As an alternative, I would also offer him a one year transition tag level deal with a plan to talk after the next season--allow him to gamble on proving he can get at least to pro-bowl level (that's an interesting idea--can you do a multi-year deal which voids if you don't make the pro-bowl?). If one of those isn't good enough, bye. I just don't see how he could sit across a table and demand top 5 money.
I agree with the transition tag idea if the team feels like he is demanding more than the market will pay him. However, I'd be careful about letting him go- for one, that means everyone's favorite punching bag, "Petey", will probalby make the roster and you guys are certainly going to see Reeves starting most of the season. There are times when the situation and market dictates that you overpay for someone. This might be one of those times and I don't think a Franchise Tag hurts the team given its cap situation.
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Old 01-29-2009   #13
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

I've got very similar feelings on this as infantrycak.
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Old 01-29-2009   #14
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

Give me Fat Albert @ 10 mil a year

McAlister @ 5 mil a year

M. Peterson @ 5 mil a year


Re-sign (thank Pappa) Daniels , Wilson, Ferguson, Bentley with the other 10 mil that is left on the cap.

Draft a DE, LB, S, RB & C
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Old 01-29-2009   #15
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

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Originally Posted by Kaiser Toro View Post
If we do tag him, which I do not want to do, it better be a transition tag.
Remember the Transition Tag only would give Houston the right of first refusal on any contract, so another team would have to do is place some weird stipulation and get Dunta for no additional compensation.

With the Franchise tag the Texans have enough power to force someone wanting him to work some sign and trade even if it is not for the full two 1st rounders.
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Old 01-29-2009   #16
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

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Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan View Post
Remember the Transition Tag only would give Houston the right of first refusal on any contract, so another team would have to do is place some weird stipulation and get Dunta for no additional compensation.

With the Franchise tag the Texans have enough power to force someone wanting him to work some sign and trade even if it is not for the full two 1st rounders.
Brain fart on my part, I meant the non-exclusive franchise tag, thanks.
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Old 01-29-2009   #17
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
I agree with the transition tag idea if the team feels like he is demanding more than the market will pay him. However, I'd be careful about letting him go- for one, that means everyone's favorite punching bag, "Petey", will probalby make the roster and you guys are certainly going to see Reeves starting most of the season. There are times when the situation and market dictates that you overpay for someone. This might be one of those times and I don't think a Franchise Tag hurts the team given its cap situation.
That's the main reasoning for this line of thinking. It's ideal for a team that can spare the cap room and is in a situation where they shouldn't gamble to see if he'll come back from his injury by giving him a long term deal.
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Old 01-30-2009   #18
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

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Originally Posted by TEXANS84 View Post
Thats alot of money to be paying a cornerback recovering from what should have been a career-ending injury.
I love Dunta to death, but those cornerbacks are going to start looking alot better once the defensive 7 starts applying pressure.
Uh huh. I know we love him. But 8M ? Oooh Wee dat's a lot of love.
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Old 01-30-2009   #19
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Funny contrast directed at nobody in particular--Rick Smith is a ding dong for hiring Reeves for 5 years at $20 mil but it would be a great idea to pay $10 mil for 1 year for Dunta?

Dunta is one of my favorite players--sign him to a reasonable contract, but don't franchise him.
Hey! I thought we all agreed that Mcnair is cheap?!?!
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Old 01-30-2009   #20
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Default Re: Franchise and Transition Numbers released

I might be having a brain fart here, but I have a question for anyone who might know. If a player is franchised but ends up working out a deal a some point during the season. Would he get paid the entire season for the franchised amount? Or would the new deal void the franchise tag and begin as soon as the new deal was struck?

I apologize for the dumb question, but I've been bouncing back and forth from East Texas. I'm trying to revive my brain cells.
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