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Old 01-23-2009   #1
RagingBull
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Default Salary Cap Issues

http://www.inthebullseye.com/cap2009.html

Judging from the inthebullseye.com salary cap info, the Texans should have quite a bit of money to work with. As it stands, they have almost $30 million available before resigning thier free agents.

If they cut some of the dead weight (e.g. Ahman Green, Anthony Weaver, and Morlon Greenwood) they can save 4.8 million, 4.8 million, and 3.5 million respectively for a total of 13.1 million. Dead money for each would be 2 million, 1.5 million, and 2.7 million for a total of about 6.2 million. In my opinion you could get two top end free agents for the 13.1 million that would be saved by cutting this dead weight which should more than make up for the 6 million in dead money. Even if they got rid of these three guys and gave someone an Asante Samuel type contract at $9 million per season, they would still come out ahead.

That would give them a total of about $43 million to work with.

The unrestricted free agents are:
Brown, C.C.
Bruener, Mark
Faggins, Demarcus
Ferguson, Nick
Kalu, N.D.
Pittman, Bryan
Robinson, Dunta
White, Chris
Zgonina, Jeff

I assume they will make an effort to resign Dunta and possibly Nick Ferguson and Chris White. Maybe also CC Brown. I cannot see them resigning Petey, Kalu (retired), Pittman, or Zgonina.

Restricted free agents are:
Anderson, David
Butler, Rashad
Daniels, Owen
Dreesen, Joel
Jackson, Scott
McClover, Stanley

I expect they will want to resign Daniels, Anderson, and Dreesen.

They also have to think about the core guys whose contracts will expire in 2009 including Chester Pitts, Kevin Walter, Kris Brown, and Demeco Ryans. They may want to get them contract extensions now.

Based upon this, they should have plenty of cap room to sign some additional free agents, even one or two top end guys.

Really, the Texans are not that far away from being contenders if they can get their defense fixed. The addition of just one impact player like Asomugha or Peppers could make a profound difference in the competetiveness of the team. It would also totally change the draft strategy to know that we had a top CB or DE locked up.

I really don't see it as being too unlikely for them to pursue one of these guys as all of the Casserly dead money is now gone and it seems the Texans have moved into a "win now" mode. We were all pretty surprised when they pulled the trigger on Schaub. They also gave Ahman Green a pretty big contract.

Thoughts?
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Old 01-23-2009   #2
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

Quote:
Originally Posted by RagingBull View Post
http://www.inthebullseye.com/cap2009.html

Judging from the inthebullseye.com salary cap info, the Texans should have quite a bit of money to work with. As it stands, they have almost $30 million available before resigning thier free agents.

If they cut some of the dead weight (e.g. Ahman Green, Anthony Weaver, and Morlon Greenwood) they can save 4.8 million, 4.8 million, and 3.5 million respectively for a total of 13.1 million. Dead money for each would be 2 million, 1.5 million, and 2.7 million for a total of about 6.2 million. In my opinion you could get two top end free agents for the 13.1 million that would be saved by cutting this dead weight which should more than make up for the 6 million in dead money. Even if they got rid of these three guys and gave someone an Asante Samuel type contract at $9 million per season, they would still come out ahead.

That would give them a total of about $43 million to work with.

The unrestricted free agents are:
Brown, C.C.
Bruener, Mark
Faggins, Demarcus
Ferguson, Nick
Kalu, N.D.
Pittman, Bryan
Robinson, Dunta
White, Chris
Zgonina, Jeff

I assume they will make an effort to resign Dunta and possibly Nick Ferguson and Chris White. Maybe also CC Brown. I cannot see them resigning Petey, Kalu (retired), Pittman, or Zgonina.

Restricted free agents are:
Anderson, David
Butler, Rashad
Daniels, Owen
Dreesen, Joel
Jackson, Scott
McClover, Stanley

I expect they will want to resign Daniels, Anderson, and Dreesen.

They also have to think about the core guys whose contracts will expire in 2009 including Chester Pitts, Kevin Walter, Kris Brown, and Demeco Ryans. They may want to get them contract extensions now.

Based upon this, they should have plenty of cap room to sign some additional free agents, even one or two top end guys.

Really, the Texans are not that far away from being contenders if they can get their defense fixed. The addition of just one impact player like Asomugha or Peppers could make a profound difference in the competetiveness of the team. It would also totally change the draft strategy to know that we had a top CB or DE locked up.

I really don't see it as being too unlikely for them to pursue one of these guys as all of the Casserly dead money is now gone and it seems the Texans have moved into a "win now" mode. We were all pretty surprised when they pulled the trigger on Schaub. They also gave Ahman Green a pretty big contract.

Thoughts?
That is the perfect route we need to take I would like to go after DB Nnamdi Asomugha and one of the top OLB's in free agency and draft DE -Everette Brown or Brian Orakpo if they fall to us at #15.




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Old 01-23-2009   #3
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

Quote:
Originally Posted by PHAROAH View Post
That is the perfect route we need to take I would like to go after DB Nnamdi Asomugha and one of the top OLB's in free agency and draft DE -Everette Brown or Brian Orakpo if they fall to us at #15.




I wouldnt expect anything but a trade down in the 1st. Look for Detroit to move up if Sanchez slides to 15.
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Old 01-23-2009   #4
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

If Sanchez falls to 15, what makes you think he won't fall all the way to 20? I don't necessarily see any of the teams 16-19 taking a QB in round 1. San Diego and Chicago, no way. Tampa and NYJ maybe, but I would think they have more pressing needs
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Old 01-23-2009   #5
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

Quote:
Originally Posted by gtexan02 View Post
If Sanchez falls to 15, what makes you think he won't fall all the way to 20? I don't necessarily see any of the teams 16-19 taking a QB in round 1. San Diego and Chicago, no way. Tampa and NYJ maybe, but I would think they have more pressing needs
Why would Chicago not draft Sanchez? I think they are just as likely as any when you are talking the bottom of the first round. Some teams in this area have stellar D but poor QB play. Chicago and Minnesota are two such teams. Like the Baltimore Ravens last year. One would add that team in possum hollar if its owner was not still in love with its crybaby of a QB.
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Old 01-23-2009   #6
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

Quote:
Originally Posted by Specnatz View Post
Why would Chicago not draft Sanchez? I think they are just as likely as any when you are talking the bottom of the first round. Some teams in this area have stellar D but poor QB play. Chicago and Minnesota are two such teams. Like the Baltimore Ravens last year. One would add that team in possum hollar if its owner was not still in love with its crybaby of a QB.
http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB...c.php?t=285825
Quote:
Chicago Bears-

1.Wide Receiver- Although it is the Bears #1 need, it is not a possition that is wished to be addressed via draft. Theres no clear cut 1st round worthy WR outside Crabtree
2. Free Safety- The bears have a major need at a Centerfielder, good tackler, good in pass coverage
3. Left Defensive End- Pass rush Pass rush Pass Rush, i cannot emphasize it more.
4. SLB- The bears need a play maker at OLB besides Briggs, someone who is a tackling machine.
I see a lot of people forcing two QBs into the top ten. I don't believe it. According to this bears fan....Qb is an after thought. Free safety and a rush DE are absolutes.


I know how he feels...I see a lot of folks ranking Safeties high for the Texans. If you're slanting DT's, better have the OLBs who can scrape and fill.
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Old 01-23-2009   #7
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

Nice post Raging bull. I pretty much agree. I believe though they'll do what they've always done...take second trier guys who show promise. Don't expect a big splash in free agency. We're loaded at back up DLs. They're loaded with young DBs. They need a rush specialist. With Adibi's injury history...Dilles broken leg...I bet they hedge their bets before the draft with an OLB.
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Old 01-23-2009   #8
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

Quote:
Originally Posted by threetoedpete View Post
http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB...c.php?t=285825


I see a lot of people forcing two QBs into the top ten. I don't believe it. According to this bears fan....Qb is an after thought. Free safety and a rush DE are absolutes.


I know how he feels...I see a lot of folks ranking Safeties high for the Texans. If you're slanting DT's, better have the OLBs who can scrape and fill.
That's well and good, but this is directly from the lips of Jerry Angelo:

Quote:
``My vantage point, in terms of where I was coming from when I spoke at the end of the season was, we still need to get that position solidified in terms of overall performance on a consistent basis,’’ Angelo said. ``We were unable to do that last year. Kyle started out very well, got a bit of an injury. ... But I thought Kyle played better there. But until we get that position solidified in terms of winning football week in and week out, it’s going to be tough for us as a football team, particularly as an offense, and that has been our Achilles’ heel under my watch. And that’s something that I’m obviously sensitive to and want to make sure that we’re staying focused on it.’’

But whether Angelo will pursue a top free-agent quarterback or a rookie capable of developing behind Orton remains the unknown.

``I can’t sit here and say definitively what we’re going to do,’’ he said. ``I know right now what we have and I feel good about that. I feel good about Kyle. I feel good about Caleb Hanie. And I want to make sure everybody understands that. But I want to make sure we look at every option that we potentially have to make sure we’re the best going forward at that position in the off-season.’’
LINK

There's no first round quality FS and pass rushing DEs look to be deep this year, so you have to think if Sanchez falls, which I think either he or Stafford will, then the Bears are definitely a threat to take him.
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Old 01-23-2009   #9
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

Quote:
Originally Posted by RagingBull View Post
http://www.inthebullseye.com/cap2009.html

Judging from the inthebullseye.com salary cap info, the Texans should have quite a bit of money to work with. As it stands, they have almost $30 million available before resigning thier free agents.

If they cut some of the dead weight (e.g. Ahman Green, Anthony Weaver, and Morlon Greenwood) they can save 4.8 million, 4.8 million, and 3.5 million respectively for a total of 13.1 million. Dead money for each would be 2 million, 1.5 million, and 2.7 million for a total of about 6.2 million. In my opinion you could get two top end free agents for the 13.1 million that would be saved by cutting this dead weight which should more than make up for the 6 million in dead money. Even if they got rid of these three guys and gave someone an Asante Samuel type contract at $9 million per season, they would still come out ahead.

That would give them a total of about $43 million to work with.

The unrestricted free agents are:
Brown, C.C.
Bruener, Mark
Faggins, Demarcus
Ferguson, Nick
Kalu, N.D.
Pittman, Bryan
Robinson, Dunta
White, Chris
Zgonina, Jeff

I assume they will make an effort to resign Dunta and possibly Nick Ferguson and Chris White. Maybe also CC Brown. I cannot see them resigning Petey, Kalu (retired), Pittman, or Zgonina.

Restricted free agents are:
Anderson, David
Butler, Rashad
Daniels, Owen
Dreesen, Joel
Jackson, Scott
McClover, Stanley

I expect they will want to resign Daniels, Anderson, and Dreesen.

They also have to think about the core guys whose contracts will expire in 2009 including Chester Pitts, Kevin Walter, Kris Brown, and Demeco Ryans. They may want to get them contract extensions now.

Based upon this, they should have plenty of cap room to sign some additional free agents, even one or two top end guys.

Really, the Texans are not that far away from being contenders if they can get their defense fixed. The addition of just one impact player like Asomugha or Peppers could make a profound difference in the competetiveness of the team. It would also totally change the draft strategy to know that we had a top CB or DE locked up.

I really don't see it as being too unlikely for them to pursue one of these guys as all of the Casserly dead money is now gone and it seems the Texans have moved into a "win now" mode. We were all pretty surprised when they pulled the trigger on Schaub. They also gave Ahman Green a pretty big contract.

Thoughts?
Uhh...my thoughts are this: You've done a great job as a new poster.

Not sure if all your numbers are accurate. We have a couple of guys here who are good at breaking down the cap figures...so I'd like to see their opinions on the numbers and projections you've provided.

Your list of who will likely re-sign is pretty spot-on, at least from a fan's perspective. What I have learned, especially through our merry-go-round running back situation pre-Slaton, is that the coaches rarely do what we think they should do. The insertion of Robinson and Bulman, and keeping them in there a lot, is the exception to the rule. Generally, this team has been slow to make the right adjustments. They give guys (Weaver, for example) waayyyy too much time to prove themselves.

Overall, though, your post is excellent. I hope you're right about the extra money that's now freed up. However...I will not hold my breath that McNair will actually spend it. Times are tough, and all that jazz......
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Old 01-23-2009   #10
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

Here it lists us at 19 million. I wonder which is more accurate?

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/afcsouth/...uth-teams.html
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Old 01-23-2009   #11
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

Quote:
Originally Posted by GP View Post
Not sure if all your numbers are accurate....so I'd like to see their opinions on the numbers and projections you've provided.
There is at least one error on the inthebullseye numbers: Ahman Green's numbers don't add up (base is 4.8 million, allocated bonus is 2.04, but the sum is only 6.64 instead of 6.84). I'm not sure where the difference is coming from (and I'm not going to try to look it up myself!) so that will make some difference. Plus there may be roster bonuses and stuff that are aren't as apparent from the numbers, and throw off the calculations.

But using the numbers given, the cap savings from cutting some of the players would actually be (rounding a bit):

If cut early and allocated to this year, we save this year's salary, but pay this and all future years' allocated bonus.
Ahman Green: Saves between 2.6 and 3.0 million
Morlon Greenwood: Saves 4.8 million
Anthony Weaver: Saves 0.8 million
Will Demps: Saves 2.35 million

If cut later or allocated to next year, we save this year's salary:
Ahman Green: 4.6 million or 4.8 million savings this year, but leaves between 1.8 and 2.0 million dead money for next year
Morlon Greenwood: Saves 4.8 million (this is his final year)
Anthony Weaver: Saves 3.5 million, but leaves 2.7 million dead money next year.
Will Demps: Saves 2.35 million (this is his final year)


As for the bottom line difference, I don't know what causes it - we have no idea where the ESPN numbers came from. Some of the difference might be from the projected increase in the cap. Another difference might be that there are incentives built into some contracts (e.g. maybe Mario has one for making the Pro Bowl) that were considered "not likely to be earned", but will now count against next year's cap - if there are a bunch of those (though $11 million is a LOT!), that could account for some of the difference.
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Old 01-23-2009   #12
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

Quote:
Originally Posted by keyser View Post
There is at least one error on the inthebullseye numbers: Ahman Green's numbers don't add up (base is 4.8 million, allocated bonus is 2.04, but the sum is only 6.64 instead of 6.84). I'm not sure where the difference is coming from (and I'm not going to try to look it up myself!) so that will make some difference. Plus there may be roster bonuses and stuff that are aren't as apparent from the numbers, and throw off the calculations.

But using the numbers given, the cap savings from cutting some of the players would actually be (rounding a bit):

If cut early and allocated to this year, we save this year's salary, but pay this and all future years' allocated bonus.
Ahman Green: Saves between 2.6 and 3.0 million
Morlon Greenwood: Saves 4.8 million
Anthony Weaver: Saves 0.8 million
Will Demps: Saves 2.35 million

If cut later or allocated to next year, we save this year's salary:
Ahman Green: 4.6 million or 4.8 million savings this year, but leaves between 1.8 and 2.0 million dead money for next year
Morlon Greenwood: Saves 4.8 million (this is his final year)
Anthony Weaver: Saves 3.5 million, but leaves 2.7 million dead money next year.
Will Demps: Saves 2.35 million (this is his final year)


As for the bottom line difference, I don't know what causes it - we have no idea where the ESPN numbers came from. Some of the difference might be from the projected increase in the cap. Another difference might be that there are incentives built into some contracts (e.g. maybe Mario has one for making the Pro Bowl) that were considered "not likely to be earned", but will now count against next year's cap - if there are a bunch of those (though $11 million is a LOT!), that could account for some of the difference.
Teams are not allowed to allocate to next year because of the threat of no cap. So the original savings are accurate.
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Old 01-23-2009   #13
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

This is why I should have taken math more seriously in school.

My brain is confoozled right now.

So, I think that what this means is tha--Oh! Gotta' go...someone invited me to a multi-player on Gears of War 2. [/sad statement on American culture].
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Old 01-23-2009   #14
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

As long as Faggins isn't back I am fine. It would be nice not to watch him get beat every sunday.
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Old 01-23-2009   #15
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

The good news is that we have ample room on the cap. The bad news is I don’t see Rick Smith going on a shopping spree. There are too many players that need to be resigned or extended. Schaub will get his big extension next year. If we start signing the Nnamdi Asomugha and Julius Peppers of the world, how are we going to resign Mario? We can’t handcuff ourselves.

As far as cuts, Green, Demps, and Greenwood are goners. Weavers’ contract isn’t cut friendly. Way too much dead money and doesn’t save all that much. I know it sucks.

From Keith on http://www.inthebullseye.com/, “Anthony Weaver might be the most expensive on that list. He has two years remaining on a contract that guaranteed him $12 million. While his play improved down the stretch in 2008, his overall performance has still been a disappointment since joining the team in 2006. If he is released, then the Texans will need to absorb $5.4 million in dead money. The upshot? Saving $3.5 million off his base salary next season.”

I’m glad you brought up the discussion, great post.
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Last edited by Killer Bee; 01-23-2009 at 04:42 PM.
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Old 01-23-2009   #16
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

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Originally Posted by Killer Bee View Post
The good news is that we have ample room on the cap. The bad news is I donít see Rick Smith going on a shopping spree. There are too many players that need to be resigned or extended. Schaub will get his big extension next year. If we start signing the Nnamdi Asomugha and Julius Peppers of the world, how are we going to resign Mario? We canít handcuff ourselves.

As far as cuts, Green, Demps, and Greenwood are goners. Weaversí contract isnít cut friendly. Way too much dead money and doesnít save all that much. I know it sucks.

Iím glad you brought up the discussion, great post.

Isnt TJs contract up after this year?
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Old 01-23-2009   #17
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

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Isnt TJs contract up after this year?
Yes, let's see how he plays. I don't see him leaving until we find someone better.
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Old 01-23-2009   #18
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

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Yes, let's see how he plays. I don't see him leaving until we find someone better.
I do.

We're paying a guy 1st rd. money when Bulman and Robinson get it done for a fraction of the price.
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Old 01-23-2009   #19
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

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I do.

We're paying a guy 1st rd. money when Bulman and Robinson get it done for a fraction of the price.
I think the point is that the team doesn't gain much by releasing TJ. Therefore, unless he can't make the team as one of it's 9 best DLmen, he'll be back.

Say what you'd like about TJ's lack of production, but he's been playing WAY out of position. Esentially, he's been playing a NT. Under the new regime, he'll likely be asked to shoot between the center and Guard and try to make a play or chase the play. There is the possiblity that he'll be much better doing that.
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Old 01-23-2009   #20
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Default Re: Salary Cap Issues

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Why would Chicago not draft Sanchez? I think they are just as likely as any when you are talking the bottom of the first round. Some teams in this area have stellar D but poor QB play. Chicago and Minnesota are two such teams. Like the Baltimore Ravens last year. One would add that team in possum hollar if its owner was not still in love with its crybaby of a QB.
Because I am drafting for the J-E-T-S. Right in front of Chicago.

Hey, Spec -- do you like apples?
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