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Updated Analysis of Texans' Draft Position
I've finished my definitive analysis and here are the results ...
If we lose and ...
- Buffalo and San Diego win, we pick 11th.
- if Buffalo loses, that of itself bumps us to 12th. If San Diego also loses, it'll depend on each team's opponent's total wins. We start out 1/2 win less (better) than SD by virtue of our having played Cin. who tied Philly (= only 1/2 win for these purposes). Still, because of common opponents, it'll be very close, possibly decided by only 0.5 wins either way. Of course San Diego plays the nite game so this scenario won't play out til the end of the last game. If SD loses (we tie records) and we lose the tie-break of opponents wins, we pick 13th.
- if we lose, we can pick no worse than 13th.
If we win and ...
- any/every one of these teams lose, each loser trumps us and leaps in front of us: New Orleans, Washington, Arizona, and Denver. That could be 4 teams that leap frog in front of us. Also, if Denver loses, that means they were beaten by San Diego so the same tie-breaker scenario as described above would apply. That could be 5 teams that leap in front of us. So if we win, we could finish anywhere from 13th to 17th, just add up the number of the losing teams mentioned and San Diego if they have a lower Op.'s Win Total. There's no way that we will pick in front of both SD and Den. - since they are playing each other, one will off the other.
- There's a far fetched possibility that if we tie records with Arizona (we win, they lose) that they could end up with more Op.'s Win Total, since we have few common opponents with them this year. They have 6 fewer Op. Wins than us now, so it's an extreme long shot. Arizona plays a late game so the math may rule this possibility out even before they start. If we tie Op. Wins with them (theoretically possible because we both played one team that ended with a tie), I believe the order between us would be decided by a coin flip.
- Therefore if we win against Chicago, we should minimally hope for Arizona and Washington wins in the late games. New Orleans plays an early game like us, so if we're winning, hope for a NO early win too. I'll keep you posted before the nite game between SD and Den. to say how that game may/will affect our draft pick one place up or down. Just best to hope for a Denver win to avoid both teams leaping over us.
- If we win, we will pick no worse than 17th.
For the record, I'm hoping we win because I don't want to go through the whole off season listening to all the naysayers go on about how we took a step backwards. Sideways I can handle, barely.
Last edited by CharloTex; 12-27-2008 at 09:15 PM.
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Re: Updated Analysis of Texans' Draft Position
Just to make sure everyone is clear on this one point Playoff teams do not pick before non playoff teams no matter their record. The 8-8 Chargers will not have a pick before #21.
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