Hurricane Ike

[Cjeremy635]

Originally Posted by FILO_girl

So true, I believe that too and the lastest model runs agree.

Got an image or a link? I'd like to see it.

[hollywood_texan]

Originally Posted by Cjeremy635

Got an image or a link? I'd like to see it.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima...s/storm_09.gif

[Double Barrel]

Another great site for tracking: www.stormpulse.com

[Señor Stan]

Originally Posted by GlassHalfFull

8:00 Models. Looking better for Houston (and the game), but worse for south Texas.

This .gif changes as the storm progresses...looks like the path is from CC to Galveston...

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by badboy

I think these things historicall have a tendancy to hook to the right and that worries me some.

It's actually "fade" to the right or more dramatically "slice" to the right, if you're a golpher. "Hooks" are to the left. But as an X-duffer, I've always liked that analogy.
But historically many of these 'Canes have taken a path like a golphers fade. Lets hope this one doesn't behave in such a manner.

[YellerLotYeller]

Most def a Northerly shift......

[YellerLotYeller]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

It's actually "fade" to the right or more dramatically "slice" to the right, if you're a golpher. "Hooks" are to the left. But as an X-duffer, I've always liked that analogy.
But historically many of these 'Canes have taken a path like a golphers fade. Lets hope this one doesn't behave in such a manner.

Maybe Ike is a lefty.

[swtbound07]

okay, don't laugh, but im not entirely sure where galveston (me) is on the map of texas.

[Cjeremy635]

Originally Posted by swtbound07

okay, don't laugh, but im not entirely sure where galveston (me) is on the map of texas.

See that little area of water that cuts into the right side of the Texas coast (maybe about 1/4" to the left from the Louisiana border)? That's the Galveston area.

[TEXANS84]

Got us right on the dirty side of the hurricane. Should be fun flying back into Houston late Friday night.

[2BCF]

Originally Posted by swtbound07

okay, don't laugh, but im not entirely sure where galveston (me) is on the map of texas.

[HOU-TEX]

Originally Posted by Señor Stan

This .gif changes as the storm progresses...looks like the path is from CC to Galveston...

LMAO! I thought I was going nuts. I looked this morning and the paths were south and look at the thread again after lunch and it's like Whoa!...WTF is wrong with me?

Anywho, do the projected paths usually change this often? I don't remember seeing anything change paths so often.

[TEXANS84]

Originally Posted by HOU-TEX

Anywho, do the projected paths usually change this often? I don't remember seeing anything change paths so often.

Yep. Once it gets over warm waters, storms tend to jog a bit. It's heading towards solid land (US), and certain fronts and pressure systems tend to influence this storm.

So far this storm is anything but predictable. It has moved a bunch the past week.

[Hardcore Texan]

Originally Posted by HOU-TEX

LMAO! I thought I was going nuts. I looked this morning and the paths were south and look at the thread again after lunch and it's like Whoa!...WTF is wrong with me?

Anywho, do the projected paths usually change this often? I don't remember seeing anything change paths so often.

I have seen this many changes before, it's because it is so far out, by Thursday morning we should have a very good idea. What worries me is in my recollection these things have a tendacy to jog north.

[eriadoc]

Here's the latest from my guys, as of 2PM CDT .....

Hurricane Ike is about to emerge off the western tip of Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to have preserved much of its inner core as a CAT 1 hurricane with 75-80 mph winds. The storm will be moving over the very warm waters of the Loop Current in the SE Gulf for 24 hours on a northwest trajectory, turn west over the central Gulf on Thursday. Atmospheric wind profiles are very supportive of intensification over the Gulf and we expect Ike to go through a rapid deepening phase and become a major hurricane with CAT 4 winds greater than 140 mph sometime on Thursday. This intensity is just below the max intensity achieved by both Hurricane Katrina and Rita in 2005. The steering current is well defined through Thursday which should track the storm south of the primary energy Production area toward the western Gulf. However, Ike is expected to be a VERY LARGE storm with hurricane force winds extending outward 100 mi with tropical storm force winds all the way to the northern Gulf Coast and across the Production Area on it’s trek across the Gulf.

Model guidance today suggests that the ridge providing the westerly steering current is expected to break down as Ike approaches the western Gulf. As this occurs, the storm is likely to make a sharp right turn. This turn could result in the center of the storm impacting anywhere along the TX coast with an outside chance of impacts along the western LA coast. Given model data today, the NHC should move the official track to the right of the previous advisory and closer to the Houston/Galveston area as a major hurricane. The result will likely be a large scale evacuation of parts of the Texas coastal zone including Galveston starting tomorrow. If model guidance continues to shift toward the Houston/Galveston area, more widespread mandatory evacuation orders will be issued late tomorrow and Thursday. Confidence in landfall location remains low enough that at this point, we are only comfortable with suggesting the middle/upper TX coast as primary threat area (see attachment/below). This includes the Houston/Galveston area.

Gulf Production Threat is increased 40% and <redacted> is highly recommended (for at least the first wave) based on the large nature and expected severity of the storm.

I would recommend <redacted> employees prepare to be “storm ready” in case confidence in the track of the storm continues to trend more in our direction in the coming days. Landfall is expected late Friday night or early Saturday morning so evacuation orders along parts of the TX coast could be given as early as tomorrow morning.

Clearly a higher level of concern regarding this storm and local impacts than yesterday and earlier today. As for energy interests…can’t rule out a possible impact across the Northwest Gulf, but for the most part it appears to be primarily a shut-in threat. There could be an increased refinery threat if the storm approaches the Upper Texas coast later this week.

[FILO_girl]

Originally Posted by Cjeremy635

Got an image or a link? I'd like to see it.

Everyone who is posting links to Wunderground will get their posts automatically updated.

[FILO_girl]

Originally Posted by TEXANS84

Yep. Once it gets over warm waters, storms tend to jog a bit. It's heading towards solid land (US), and certain fronts and pressure systems tend to influence this storm.

So far this storm is anything but predictable. It has moved a bunch the past week.

Hurricanes get their steering from the winds aloft...they have been predicting a High to evolve to steer Ike north for sometime, but they were not to sure if it would manifest before he hits land...looks like they decided where to include it.


Us being on the dirty side...no bueno.

[Porky]

Originally Posted by Double Barrel

Another great site for tracking: www.stormpulse.com

Nice graffics on that site.

As I suspected the models are trending north. I think the NHC shifts there landfall north somewhat at 4pm, and they will trend slowly up the coast. I still say Matagorda to Galveston, but honestly it wouldn't shock me if it's as far north as the Golden Triangle before all is said and done. Having said that, I'll go out on a limb and say just south of Freeport for landfall. Just a go on the record type guess.

And seriousely here SWT. Keep apprised of the news and local authorties. I am going to be suprised if they don't call for a Galveston evacuation tomorrow or Thu at the latest.

[swtbound07]

Originally Posted by Porky

Nice graffics on that site.

As I suspected the models are trending north. I think the NHC shifts there landfall north somewhat at 4pm, and they will trend slowly up the coast. I still say Matagorda to Galveston, but honestly it wouldn't shock me if it's as far north as the Golden Triangle before all is said and done. Having said that, I'll go out on a limb and say just south of Freeport for landfall. Just a go on the record type guess.

And seriousely here SWT. Keep apprised of the news and local authorties. I am going to be suprised if they don't call for a Galveston evacuation tomorrow or Thu at the latest.

im technically texas city...would they evacuate us?

[Texan_Bill]

Originally Posted by swtbound07

im technically texas city...would they evacuate us?

Considering Texas City is basically Galveston Bay - more than likely... Just to help you out a little bit: