Schaub Prediction

[Jackie Chiles]

Hello everyone, first post for me but I've been reading these boards for years. Anyway came across this prediction the other day and since its about Schaub I'm thinking it should be posted here as opposed to the fantasy forum.

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/fo...page=tmr080821

18. Matt Schaub will throw for 3,500 yards and 28 touchdowns.

I believe if he stays healthy he trips over 3,500 yards but 28 TDs is probably the best we could hope for. Anything mid 20 plus can only be really good for the team though. Very excited to see how he performs this year and I have a feeling his career will be similar to someone like Matt Hasselbeck.

[Corrosion]

If healthy for 16 games 3500 yards is not a lofty goal , thats about 218.75 yards per game , Schaubs avg last season was 203.72 so its not a big leap.

On the other hand , 28 TD's would put him in the top 6 of the category , I'd say thats a lofty expectation. The Texans had 24 last season between Schaub and Rosenfels. I expect this number to be similar this season. I'd have to take the under on 28.(hope I'm wrong)

The numbers I'm more concerned with is INT's and sack rate.

Last season Schaub had as many INT's as TD's .... That simply wont do .

Last season Schaub was sacked once for every 18 attempts while Rosenfels was sacked once for every 40. I'd like to see Schaubs numbers improve here.
(Do Not insert "Start Sage" thread here) I'd like to see that number closer to 30 than 20 (Brady 27 , Favre 35 , Brees 40) So far this pre-season the Texans are at 1/25 (two sacks in 50 att) while Schaub has no sacks in 21 attempts .

[infantrycak]

Originally Posted by corrosion

If healthy for 16 games 3500 yards is not a lofty goal , thats about 218.75 yards per game , Schaubs avg last season was 203.72 so its not a big leap.

That includes three partial games and treats them as full games. Looking only at Schaub's complete games, he averaged 263 ypg which generates a giddy type number over 16 games.

[J-Russ]

Since this thread is about predictions I'll put this other guy's prediction in here as well.

Theres this guy on NFLDC, that makes some pretty bold prediction every year before the season starts, and at the end of the year most of his predictions come true. Last year he predicted that Mario will have a break out season and would be consider one of the top DE at the end of the season. I'm guessing he must be a fortune teller, or a warlock or something. I posted a thread on that, Ima go look back and post his words. Well anyways, one of his predictions are about us again.

The Texans surpass the Jaguars, Titans, challenge the Colts.

The Texans went 8-8 last year; not exactly the most impressive record. If you look closer at the team you will find it more impressive. They didn't have the best WR for most of the season, even though he was putting up Owens/Moss like numbers when he did play, Matt Schaub missed a lot of time with injuries, and they had a young and inconsistent defense. This year Schaub and Johnson are back and the defense should only improve as players like Amobi Okoye and Fred Bennett improve. I thought Houston would be a team on the rise last year, this year I like them even more. I think they can be a legitimate contender.

[J-Russ]

Here it is.

Shiver's prediction posted at NFLDC

Mario Williams will become one of the best Defensive Ends in football.
He was already a force against the run last year. Pro Football Prospectus has him as a top-10 run defender according to their metrics. He has the incredible strength and long arms to dominate in that department for his entire career. As a rookie, with a painful injury, that is quite the feat. People may not be impressed with his sack totals; however, he had plenty of QB hurries and hits, which shows that his 4.5 sack total is a little unfortunate. Mario Williams had 4.5 sacks, 14 hurries and 4 hits, compare that to Mark Anderson and you will see what I am talking about. Anderson had 12 sacks, an impressive number to be sure, but he only had 1 QB hit and 4 QB hurries. It’s evident that Anderson was very fortunate while Williams was unfortunate. All too often sack totals are misleading, which is why hits and hurries are essential to realize just how effective a DE really is at pass rushing. He did very well despite having the NFL’s worst interior D-lineman. With Amobi Okoye added to the rotation that will certainly only help that unit

link: http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/for...ad.php?t=12303

[ReliantTexan]

Originally Posted by corrosion

If healthy for 16 games 3500 yards is not a lofty goal , thats about 218.75 yards per game , Schaubs avg last season was 203.72 so its not a big leap.

Does Matt's average include the games where he went out early?

[HJam72]

Originally Posted by J-Russ

Since this thread is about predictions I'll put this another guy's prediction in here as well.

Theres this guy on NFLDC, that makes some pretty bold prediction every year before the season starts, and at the end of the year most of his predictions come true. Last year he predicted that Mario will have a break out season and consider one of the top DE at the end of the season. I'm guessing he must be a fortune teller, or a warlock or something. I posted a thread on that, Ima go look back and post his words. Well anyways, one of his predictions are about us again.

I really like that guy!

[Corrosion]

Originally Posted by ReliantTexan

Does Matt's average include the games where he went out early?

Nope , as Cak pointed out , Schaub had 263 ypg in those games he started and finished which would equate to 4208 yards for the season. Only three teams had more than 4200 passing yards last season. Those teams were NE , GB and NO. Dallas was 4th at 4105. Ther Texans were 11th with 3751 , an avg of 234 per game.


Again , the passing yardage numbers dont concern me nearly as much as the number of int's to attempts and the number of sacks per attempt. Turnovers and negative plays have such a huge effect upon a game ....

[ATX]

3900 yards
24 TDs
14 Ints

[brakos82]

Originally Posted by Jackie Chiles

...his career will be similar to someone like Matt Hasselbeck.

Well, if you're gonna compare them...........

2001 Hasselbeck (13 games):
176/321 (54.8 pct), 2023 yds (6.3 ypa), 7/8 TD/INT, 38 sacks (2.9 spg), 6/2 fumbles/lost

2007 Schaub (11 games):
192/289 (66.4 pct), 2241 yds (7.8 ypa), 9/9 TD/INT, 16 sacks (1.2 spg), 7/3 fumbles/lost

[ObsiWan]

Originally Posted by corrosion

If healthy for 16 games 3500 yards is not a lofty goal , thats about 218.75 yards per game , Schaubs avg last season was 203.72 so its not a big leap.

On the other hand , 28 TD's would put him in the top 6 of the category , I'd say thats a lofty expectation. The Texans had 24 last season between Schaub and Rosenfels. I expect this number to be similar this season. I'd have to take the under on 28.(hope I'm wrong)

The numbers I'm more concerned with is INT's and sack rate.

Last season Schaub had as many INT's as TD's .... That simply wont do .

Last season Schaub was sacked once for every 18 attempts while Rosenfels was sacked once for every 40. I'd like to see Schaubs numbers improve here.
(Do Not insert "Start Sage" thread here) I'd like to see that number closer to 30 than 20 (Brady 27 , Favre 35 , Brees 40) So far this pre-season the Texans are at 1/25 (two sacks in 50 att) while Schaub has no sacks in 21 attempts .

So say we all.
Between 30 and 35 would be even better.

And 28 TDs should be quite do-able if Schaub doesn't get cheap-shot (is "cheap-shotted" a word?) again this season and A.J. stays on the field too. Actually, given those stipulations, 32+ TDs ought to be within reach this year. Just as long as - like you said - they don't come with 32+ turnovers.

[kiwitexansfan]

Welcome aboard Jackie, I think those predictions are conservative if AJ and Schaub are injury free.

I think the biggest threat to those sort of numbers would be the discovery of an effective running game. I think Kubiak would prefer to pound the ball but as that isn't working yet, Schaub will tear it up.

[Eight Gov]

I have Schaub down for 3900 yds and 23 TDs and 11 INTs

[76Texan]

3,600 yd, 24 TDs, 9 Ints, 8 sacks

[brakos82]

Call me bored...

*PapaL screams: "Hey Bored!"*

*I scream back: "Shut up!"*

but I extrapolated the stats from the games that Andre Johnson was in... and so far, so good:
312/471 (66.1% comp), 3933 yds (8.35ypa), 27 TD 11 INT, 6 sacks, and 0 fumbles.