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Old 12-20-2004   #1
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Default Something I dont understand

There are some aspects of the NFL which I think I have a fairly good understanding of.. and some which I think im completely ignorant of.

One of the aspects im ignorant of is drafting a playmaker vs drafting depth.

Now.. I keep hearing people say "we dont need one player, we need lots of players to fill holes" and "we are not one player away from the superbowl, we need alot of players" etc..etc..etc..

Now, it seems to me, that a team that is not ALMOST a superbowl contender, needs those single playmakers more than they need alot of average to good players.

Take, for example, our current roster. We are not hurting for depth really. I mean, yah in some cases there is a fairly steep drop from the starter to the 2nd stringer.. like with our CBs. Going from Dunta and Glenn to Dunta and Faggins.. that would be a pretty steep drop and could hurt us. But what makes anyone think that taking a CB in the 2nd or 3rd round will be an improvement over Faggins? He is not a BAD player.. he just isnt yet a probowl corner. The only way we could really IMPROVE our depth at CB (outside of FA) would be to draft a playmaker CB in the 1st round.

And look at our Offense.. we have most of what we need. Our Oline is struggling but I think that has as much to do with their lack of experience together as it does with a lack of talent. Wiegert has shown he can be a good lineman.. Pitts has shown he can be a good lineman.. Wade was a good lineman in Miami.. and Wand looks pretty good as well. The only weakness may be McKinney. But the chances of us getting a better Center in the 3rd or 4th round are slim. We could get a good Center in those rounds and start GROOMING him to be our center, but he wont make an immediate impact.

Really the only thing our offense is lacking is a running game. And even that isnt too bad when we have a health Domanick Davis. So really.. the solution to our running game would PROBABLY be a workhorse RB that compares to DD in skill, but is more durable. Again, this is the kind of playmaker that you would spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on.

Then there is our pass rush. This is one case where I think depth is needed.. but only on the Dline. We need some young talent there pretty badly. But again, I think we would do better if we picked up a playmaking ILB or DT in the 1st round.. then spent a 3rd and/or 4th to get a lineman we can start grooming.


Anyway.. this post is kind of rambling on.. my point is.. I dont see how drafting 7 or 8 players and hoping we get a couple of good ones.. is a better route for us to take than drafting 3 to 5 players and getting at least one sure thing.

Sure, in theory, if we used all our draft picks and did no trading up, we could possibly fill ALL of these needs. But the chances of that actually happening are so slim that it isnt even worth considering. Why not get that one player that will SURELY make the difference in a key area.. then hope that the 2 or 3 leftover picks will fill your needs elsewhere.

Now in the case of the 49ers.. they are FAR from being CLOSE to contending.. I can understand why trading down and taking alot of players would be a good idea for them, because they need to do a "changing of the guard".. perhaps, in comparison to the BAD teams.. we are closer to the superbowl than some people realize?


SO, am I just totally looking at this the wrong way?


(P.S. this draft class seems to really be lacking in the areas we need help in.. so trading up may be our best bet if we want to have a good draft)

(P.P.S. where the hell does this post go? I thought maybe in the draft forum, but then that is for discussing this years draft prospects, and that isnt really what this is about. then i thought maybe the tailgate forum, but this isnt community news or about an event. So I put it here... even though it isnt really about what the Texans are currently doing. I dunno, if its in the wrong place can ya let me know before ya delete it so I can at least copy it and paste it into the right spot ..id hate to have to retype this long arse thing hehe)
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Old 12-20-2004   #2
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toooooooooooo long.
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Old 12-20-2004   #3
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Grid,

I promise that I am going to answer this one at some point in the next day or two becasue there are tons of factors which go into your question.
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Old 12-20-2004   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grid

And look at our Offense.. we have most of what we need. Our Oline is struggling but I think that has as much to do with their lack of experience together as it does with a lack of talent. Wiegert has shown he can be a good lineman.. Pitts has shown he can be a good lineman.. Wade was a good lineman in Miami.. and Wand looks pretty good as well. The only weakness may be McKinney. But the chances of us getting a better Center in the 3rd or 4th round are slim. We could get a good Center in those rounds and start GROOMING him to be our center, but he wont make an immediate impact.
I thought Todd Wade and Steve McKinney are the two strongest spots on the offensive line. The right side has played pretty well.... The left side of the line has been trash this year.

I agree with your assumption that we need more star players on the defensive side of the ball, specifically a linebacker. Depth is always good, but there isnt a huge drop from our starters and our subs, because of the fact that our starters are not all that great in most spots on this team.
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Old 12-20-2004   #5
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What was the question again

anyway whatever the system you subsribe to consistancy is key, the foundation has to be solid, you have to believe in that system or what your about to be successful. i like to think of all NFL prospects as playmakers in their own right, everyone has a talent to contribute to the betterment of the team, 1st round thru 7th.

therefore draft good people who want to be part of a team, who have talent & drive and good things will happen. All you have to do is look at Montana, Brady or in the Texans case Dominack Davis all not highly drafted but became playmakers & key to their teams success.

then again last year the Texans traded up to grab two #1 picks because they felt confident both could start as rookies and fullfill team needs. Just shows there is no right or wrong only what meets the system/team needs. Hope that makes some sense
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Old 12-21-2004   #6
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ya it makes perfect sense beerlover.. unfortunatly that frame of mind wont solve any arguements around here . If everyone beleived that either way is the right way.. then they would all have to trust in our front office to make the right decision. We all know THAT isnt going to happen.. hell we STILL have people talking about Babin and questioning if he was worth it.

(BTW.. he most definatly was)
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Old 12-21-2004   #7
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If our left side of the line is sooo crappy, why do we run to the left more than the right? It might not be as strong as the right on pass, but we must like what it does on the run better than the right.
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Old 12-22-2004   #8
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Yeah, mesg is long but that is ok. You have a lot to say & seem interested in learning. If the General Mgrs make errors in selections so can we. I tend to agree with you that a specific need at high profile position (QB, wr, ol & dl, cb)starter should go with highest pick. Our first 2 years, Casserly grabbed players but as mentioned, he traded up to 1st round to get Babin- high profile pass rusher. Capers has said that 3rd rounder has 50% chance of making team and it drops fast from there.

Of course, intangibles and that certain guy who drops in your lap that no other team seems to have noticed(maybe they did but know something you don't) play a part. Wand is example. If he had not been coached by Capers @ seniors bowl, Texans would not have known him. Our problem: 1. D'line= Is Walker over hill with banged up body? Is Robaire Smith going to pick it up next year? Is Seth Payne gone as a Free Agent as I saw on another Post? I was hoping a Marcus Spears type ( if available) would strengthen team. If Payne gone, he would have to step in & would we be any better?
2. O'line= I am still guessing. Is it Wand & Pitts or blocking scheme? Do we try to strengthen with 2nd round or pray the rosary? 3.RB: Davis gets 1000 2nd year row and it's obvious we need a "grinder". 4.Bradford will be gone, has Armstrong shown enough to be #2 WR?

Barring injuries last 2 games, my picks for 05: 1. Best DT 2. Second best DT 3A. from Cowboys for Hensen best O.T. 3B best CB or WR 4,5,6,7 if we have, then trade up for higher pick and get best player available (a power back?)

Merry Christmas,y'all!
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Old 12-22-2004   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grid
There are some aspects of the NFL which I think I have a fairly good understanding of.. and some which I think im completely ignorant of.

One of the aspects im ignorant of is drafting a playmaker vs drafting depth.

Now.. I keep hearing people say "we dont need one player, we need lots of players to fill holes" and "we are not one player away from the superbowl, we need alot of players" etc..etc..etc..

Now, it seems to me, that a team that is not ALMOST a superbowl contender, needs those single playmakers more than they need alot of average to good players.

Take, for example, our current roster. We are not hurting for depth really. I mean, yah in some cases there is a fairly steep drop from the starter to the 2nd stringer.. like with our CBs. Going from Dunta and Glenn to Dunta and Faggins.. that would be a pretty steep drop and could hurt us. But what makes anyone think that taking a CB in the 2nd or 3rd round will be an improvement over Faggins? He is not a BAD player.. he just isnt yet a probowl corner. The only way we could really IMPROVE our depth at CB (outside of FA) would be to draft a playmaker CB in the 1st round.

And look at our Offense.. we have most of what we need. Our Oline is struggling but I think that has as much to do with their lack of experience together as it does with a lack of talent. Wiegert has shown he can be a good lineman.. Pitts has shown he can be a good lineman.. Wade was a good lineman in Miami.. and Wand looks pretty good as well. The only weakness may be McKinney. But the chances of us getting a better Center in the 3rd or 4th round are slim. We could get a good Center in those rounds and start GROOMING him to be our center, but he wont make an immediate impact.

Really the only thing our offense is lacking is a running game. And even that isnt too bad when we have a health Domanick Davis. So really.. the solution to our running game would PROBABLY be a workhorse RB that compares to DD in skill, but is more durable. Again, this is the kind of playmaker that you would spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on.

Then there is our pass rush. This is one case where I think depth is needed.. but only on the Dline. We need some young talent there pretty badly. But again, I think we would do better if we picked up a playmaking ILB or DT in the 1st round.. then spent a 3rd and/or 4th to get a lineman we can start grooming.


Anyway.. this post is kind of rambling on.. my point is.. I dont see how drafting 7 or 8 players and hoping we get a couple of good ones.. is a better route for us to take than drafting 3 to 5 players and getting at least one sure thing.

Sure, in theory, if we used all our draft picks and did no trading up, we could possibly fill ALL of these needs. But the chances of that actually happening are so slim that it isnt even worth considering. Why not get that one player that will SURELY make the difference in a key area.. then hope that the 2 or 3 leftover picks will fill your needs elsewhere.

Now in the case of the 49ers.. they are FAR from being CLOSE to contending.. I can understand why trading down and taking alot of players would be a good idea for them, because they need to do a "changing of the guard".. perhaps, in comparison to the BAD teams.. we are closer to the superbowl than some people realize?


SO, am I just totally looking at this the wrong way?


(P.S. this draft class seems to really be lacking in the areas we need help in.. so trading up may be our best bet if we want to have a good draft)

(P.P.S. where the hell does this post go? I thought maybe in the draft forum, but then that is for discussing this years draft prospects, and that isnt really what this is about. then i thought maybe the tailgate forum, but this isnt community news or about an event. So I put it here... even though it isnt really about what the Texans are currently doing. I dunno, if its in the wrong place can ya let me know before ya delete it so I can at least copy it and paste it into the right spot ..id hate to have to retype this long arse thing hehe)
In an attempt to answer this there are several angles

1- Philosophy-some team always trade down and attempt to add picks. Some believe in attempting to draft specif players. some mix what they do. A few always stay at their position and draft right then. gbnreport.com has a good report on different draft philosophies. BPA, need, bunch drafting, etc.
Casserly claims to draft BPA (best player available)

2-Team make-up- this often require a team to scout itself to see what type of players are needed. A team may have a ton of bodies at a position, but need to get a star player, or will have a star player will no depth, or have a star player who is getting older or near contract issues. All of these things matter.

3-Draft picks- where the team drafts also effects what they attempt to do. If you draft in the top 10 or so usually you want to draft certain positions and/or get someone who will start right now. the further down you draft will effect what they do. Also, if a team has bunches of picks they maybe more likely to move or trade for next year.

4-the talent pool-the quality of overall talent and at a specific position will effect the order. One thing to remember is that teams have their own boards and not the one that Kiper, ourlads, GBN, huddlereport, etc. use. these boards account for thier offense and defensive systems, injury risk, charcter risk etc. while this draft looks to be weak overall the players that are availble for some teams will love this draft because their type of player is in abundance.

5- Free Agency- A team may address a need in free agency instead of the draft. some of the above factors matter, but this goes into it also.

6- Caprrom-a team withoutproom may add tons of lower round draft choice in order to complete its roster or if a team has bunches of caproom it may move up to take higher picks.

7- Draft day trade-some times a team will get the offer they can't refuse and descide to move.

Grid, when a team chooses to trade up or down one, a couple or a combination of all these factors may weigh on the mind of GM. this long answer probably is as confusing as your orginal post, but i said i would attempt the answer.
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Old 12-23-2004   #10
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hmm.. well I wonder what would be best for us then. We dont exactly have alot of cap room.. and I think we are somewhat in the "star starting with little depth behind them" catagory in alot of positions.

But then if we take the trade down approach and try to draft depth instead of a star.. that would imply that we are happy with our team as it currently is, and do no necessarily need help at any more positions. and this just isnt true.

I cant wait for the new cap numbers to come out so we can see what we are gonna do. I wonder if some contract reworking is in order.. like with Walker, Payne, Glenn, or Kailee Wong.
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Old 12-23-2004   #11
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Grid I knew what you wanted all along I was just stringing you along then supported by Arlington

Heres what you want- Texans trade up (in the mock I'm working on) to the Cardinals spot #6 to draft the missing trigger 3-4 ILB Derrick Johnson. This may be the last gasp, close as we come to the top of the draft for many moons here after. If the Texans decide his character, agility & speed along with his strength warrants their consideration then you have your playmaker
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Old 12-23-2004   #12
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well ive made my stance on Derrick Johnson pretty well known ..

Problem is I really dont know anything about the kids personality (he could be like Kellen Winslow for all I know, "im a soldier! im a soldier!".. boy what id give to have him alone in a room for 5 minutes so i could just "female dog" slap the **** out of him a few hundred times)

Also, would he play ILB for us? is that really putting his talents to their best use? or would we be better off using him at his natural position of OLB? Babin and Johnson on the outside sounds great.. that could really help our pass rush (which btw, im of the opinion that pass rushers have replaced CBs as the most important position on defense, now that the 5 yard penalty is in effect).. but if we do that then we still have that problem at ILB. Will wong play there? is he even any GOOD there? is Polk better than Foreman? and even if we do do this, wont that leave Peek out in the cold? Peek would be a great backup but with his talent, and the lack of playing time he gets.. i think he would go the way of Posey when his contract expires. Still.. if Johnson is the better rusher then you cant really complain.. yah it would suck to snub Peek like that but you gotta do whats best for the team.

And then there is Ahmad Brooks.. if he declares he could be the perfect fit for us at ILB and has lots of 3-4 experience in college... but will that help our pass rush? ILBs arent as important as OLBs when it comes to rushing the passer in the 3-4 it seems.

Perhaps Johnson in the first.. an ILB in the second (if a good one is available).. then Dlinemen in the 3rd and 4th.. if we make good picks that would fix MOST of our problems on D and hopefully set us up for years to come. Then next season we can maybe try for Ahmad Brooks (if he doesnt declare this year)


Either way.. I dont know.. I think improving our pass rush is again our most important objective this offseason.. our second most important is to figure out the problem with our Oline. A successful running game is the only way we will have a successful offense.. and the Oline needs to be good for us to have a successful running game. third objective would be the Dline. After that.. i think everything is fluff.... like a quick WR, some depth at FS/SS.. a good TE.. and a good cover corner (cover corners are the way to go if they continue to stick with the 5 yard rule.. zone coverage is what you need)

by the way.. well.. ill make another post on it. there is a TE that we may be able to pick up in the 5th-7th round. he is a project but could be great if we give him the chance.
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Old 12-23-2004   #13
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I think we would at least try him out on the inside
how much muscle and weight he could put on without losing his lightning quickness would play a major role in where he would fit best

I don't think anyone would argue that DJ is anywhere near as strong as #93 and he has a tough time breaking off of LTs... which makes me wonder: why in the sam hill is the LT free to block our LOLB so often?

I think DJ @ 240-250 = ILB
DJ @ 255+ = ROLB

after typing that I wondered if he would be better on the left side with babin on the right

my understanding is that you want the most versatile OLB on the left/stong side (whatever you call 'lined up over TE'), with the pass rusher/run stuffer on the other

can anyone clear this up?
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Old 12-24-2004   #14
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I meant RTs on 93
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